Crisis What Crisis? Is my friend over doing the stockpiling and am I too? Continuation thread (2)

[RedToothBrush]

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

I'm moving it over to chat from AIBU as it makes a bit more sense to be there at this point.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.

This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

We are however going through a period where various governments throughout Europe think there is an elevated risk of some kind of problem due to global instability and we should start to get our heads around the possibility of needing to be ready for anything.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

So this is for everything from tips and considerations about what might be a good idea to do /save minimise potential risks to just straight old political bollocks talk about how things are developing.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

This does actually explicitly say to write a personalised plan for your household which everyone knows and understands and to talk about the issues you may face to help you be able mobilise for any situation which might arise. Which is exactly what this thread is ultimately for.

i am not sure @RedToothBrush
i thought it was hidden immediately

Hidden usually means a word has been picked up rather than reported. Mnhq usually reinstate after checking.

I'm going to go all Trump on MNHQ and DEMAND @RedToothBrush post is reinstated!!!!
Seriously, I find your posts are my go to now for actual news.

At least one good thing is that the whole plague thing seems to have gone away.
Now we've just got megalomaniacs to worry about....

It's fine. I'll rephrase and caveat to explain.

The logic is this:

Yandex down = banks and other internet access down. Documented. Not in dispute.
Yandex down = the amount of bots on twitter is right down and you can visibly notice the change in replies. Twitter is so weird today without replies and likes boosting certain accounts and view points. It's reasonably sane (I use this as a term of relatively rather than actually being sane). There is some dispute over the why and whether it's because it's Yandex directly (or payment issues), but it's noticeable in terms of content, retweets and likes.

We know that Russia has a massive industry of internet criminal behaviour. Everything from hacking to full financial blackmail of institutions and companies etc. Burnham has literally said British intelligence has noted inference in the EU Ref this weekend. Something a lot of people have strongly suspected for years.

This is State Level as well as pure criminal gangs (potentially throughout the world - an entire black market system). This is often paid via crypto currency. But if Yandex is down, people aren't getting access / potentially not being paid (therefore aren't working) etc. The flow of money into Russia via this route is now theoretically effectively stuck. Yandex says data hasn't been lost but simply can't be accessed and there's no timeline for normality on this.

Restoration of this relies on being able to repair these centres quickly. One of the things that's sanctioned in microchips, so there is a shortage in Russia. So there's really no guarantee on that. There's speculation that it will take until 2028 to make the necessary repairs without the lifting of these sanctions.

None of this is controversial or disputed by Western Governments, Western Intelligence or Western media. It's been all documented as problematic for years.

It could be a very significant disruption to Russian hybrid warfare capacity and potential criminal activity both internally and externally.

This doesn't link particular individuals in terms of being involved and liable at all.

But there's clearly individuals and political groups in the West who benefit from this whole network which the Russian State enables. And if this is all offline even for a short period, you do wonder what the hell the effect will be. What would happen? Would it cause cash flow issues - which have wider real world consequences?

The degree to which the Russian State is reliant on Yandex is potentially about to be tested very hard indeed.

I therefore think the Russian Oil + Yandex stuff is crazy in terms of it's potential fall out. That's without considering the Middle East implications and ties particularly with Iran.

It also means the risk to data centres elsewhere in the world is about to get ridiculous if the impact is about to be shown in terms of scale. There's warnings that the Middle East has a major risk. One UAE data centre has already been hit and is 'beyond salvageable'. Anyone in the middle east would be wise to get cash out given the situation in Russia right now.

But I also think global implications on security beyond high risk areas. And I think this is really worth paying attention to. Indeed this morning we have Poland warning NATO needs to prepare for a 'potentially deadly Russian hybrid attack with sabotage increasing dramatically'. Whatever the fuck that means. There's been more railway sabotage in the Netherlands over the weekend, and the risk to power and data centers should be pretty clear now thanks to what's going on with Russia and Ukraine.

So yeah. Maybe my post was automatically hidden because I used a certain word related to bridges. But hopefully this post avoids the word and gets the point across instead.

Ok another post automatically hidden. I'm obviously saying a word that's getting picked up. This is frustrating.

I wonder which one it is?!

Anything about the currency that dare not speak its name? C. R... ending in to?
It's usually that. Automatically picked up and hidden.

I was really careful with that last post too. I don't think it was controversial! It's an observation of what's happening and the implications. I suspect it's a word related to a type of exchange of money that probably has MN auto banning due to constant spamming.

Yep that's the one!

Let's see if I can write this post (again) without that word!!!

So Yandex is down. We know this is affecting banks and the internet. It's documented.
We also can see the type of replies on twitter have changed considerably (avoiding certain words here again). It's visible and noticeable.
There's comments saying this is weird and not proveably linked directly to Yandex.

But if payment systems are compromised that might explain a lot. Especially if this includes access to this other system that can not be mentioned is also potentially blocked. This could have significant implications.

Russia has significant links to criminal activity online. Both at state level and for criminal gangs, both domestically and internationally. This again isn't in dispute. This other non-cash system (I'm going to use non-cash instead going forward) has significant links to this criminality because it can't be traced.

If Russia is heavily reliant on non-cash, this would be a significant blow. But it's not visible and quantifiable. It would affect Russia's ability to do a lot of things.

Yandex has said that data hasn't been lost and it's just an access issue but notably doesn't give any sense of timeline. It will require microchips to restore. Microchips that are sanctioned and that Russia doesn't have. Some are speculating online this might mean as long as 2028. I suspect it won't be as long as that due to the level of the problem but I think it shows the scale of the disruption it's causing.

If social media content is dramatically changed due to indirect or direct issues from Yandex that has global implications too. There's definitely winners and losers from this. I'm not going to go through a list or identify individuals.

If non-cash has significant Russian related problems that also has global implications. Again there's some criminal losers here and probably state level issues which in the context of Iran, have implications.

Ukraine stayed aware from data centres until Russia went for Ukrainian data centres. Ukraine had prepared for this scenario with the help of the west.

We don't yet fully understand nor can comprehend the potential fall out from a large non-cash disruption to this level.

Accessing legal payments and banks is one thing. We have sight of this to an extent. And bank have at least some degree of protection. The UK is one of the few countries which offers at least some non-cash legal protections too. This entire underground system, is quite another prospect. We don't know where it goes, who it impacts, who might have cash flow issues and what the fallout of this might be.

You can't exactly do IOUs. It would undermine confidence in both the legal online system and the non-cash system long term. You'd resort to gold or cash under the mattress. That's if you could get cash out. (There's a risk of a run on banks in Russia here btw, so they'll be restrictions imposed and not just Russia).

But the vulnerability of data centres isn't going to go unnoticed. Indeed two Amazon data center in UAE were destroyed with Amazon saying they were beyond salvaging (data destroyed).

And I've also seen warnings this morning on social media, that if you are in the middle east, make sure you have cash because it's now high risk.

Of course this has implications beyond high risk zones. Indeed this morning Poland has being warning NATO 'to prepare for a potentially deadly Russian hybrid attack due to sabotage'. Whatever the fuck that means. Over the weekend Dutch railways were sabotaged again but the timing to me definitely seems to imply oil or data related.

I don't think we fully comprehend what's actually happening here or the potential fall out yet. Yandex + Oil is crazy levels of instability and pressure in Russia without even considering the Middle East and it's connections not the wider world implications.

Russia is really being pushed here in a way I don't think we really get.

Given what's gone on over the weekend in other countries there's got to be some serious eyebrow raising about timing of volte facing.

I wonder how much European Intelligence agencies have had influence and support Ukraine in terms of its attacks on Yandex nor Oil. I don't think I've seen a peep being critical. Possibly because there's a deliberate united front in the face of Trump, but it raises some big questions about where Russia goes from here. Indeed where Russia can go from here.

Fingers crossed this post doesn't get zapped too!

Yay!!!

I think that covers it. My previous attempt was phrased better but never mind.

Watch the non-cash story.

How has Russia / Russian been paying for things and how has Russia/ Russian been paid - especially for sanctioned items?

Like for example - Microchips.

Has it though? Have they reported that all the people who were quarantined have been let go as they were fine? I haven't seen anything to this effect.
I find it strange there was no further updates.
I'm more likely to think they are all infected and it's getting kept quiet.

Yes me too. How dare they!

Who do we want, RedToothBrush, When do we want them, NOW

Yes I did notice than Reddit posts had very much picked up on this and the bots suddenly going very very quiet since.

Thanks for the update.
I am glad I took some cash out of bank a few week ago. Just a couple of hundred quid but better than nothing.

In other news I have just updated my Tesco click and collect for tomorrow and they are short of milk. Could just be a coincidence or not? Anyway had to put more expensive brands in my basket and hope for the best.

Having come down with the bug that is going round (covid) I am feeling shitty on top of everything else so it's just as well I stockpiled a month ago now. Lugging tins and bottles of water would be beyond me now. Even the bloody dog is sick and the day is cloudy and overcast and cold. Hibernation looking better by the day.

What I find most worrying is that I read the telegraph, guardian and Sky news each day and most of what Red Tooth Brush reports does not really seem to be in the news. Makes me realise how little we are told.

Todays task is to download all of my cloud files to my laptop.
Tomorrows task will be to put them all onto a terabyte drive.

Maybe not linked but I couldn't use my phone to pay in Sainsbury's this morning.
I had to use physical card.
It was under a fiver.

I'm glad I don't need to worry about that.
Only because I have zero understanding of the cloud!

Cyber attack on French supermarket freezers, several chains affected eg https://x.com/schelcher/status/2109564928881308012?s=20
"I confirm that a cyberattack has been affecting, since last night, the cold production facilities of several stores in our network
@CooperativeU
Our teams are fully mobilized, in coordination with refrigeration specialists, to restore the situation as quickly as possible. An investigation will be necessary to shed full light on this attack. Targeting equipment essential to the preservation of fresh products and to the food supply of the French people is of extreme gravity and is unprecedented. It is unacceptable."
Same with some Dutch chains too

You just beat me to it! I can’t really find any English links.

The French one is apparently ‘just’ refrigeration. The Dutch one is widescale and means that the major Dutch supermarket chain Albert Heijn can’t do any deliveries, and their app and website are down. Apparently the shops are still open but there are problems with loyalty-card-related discounts.

edited to add link: https://nltimes.nl/2026/10/12/incident-knocks-site-app-albert-heijn-subsidiary-brands-online-orders

most of what Red Tooth Brush reports does not really seem to be in the news.

I think most of it EVENTUALLY reaches the broadsheets but on a very low editorial priority and usually days later.

Things tend to link together and that's really important because I think that's one of the things that not being done in the media - explaining the connectivity - because this is where it gets expensive in paying for serious journalism with limited readership bases as it's not revenue generating in returns. I'm definitely not always perfect but given the shite that passes for journalism these days, I don't think I'm the worst out there for nonsense!

I have a degree in media so that probably helps too.

I've done this on MN for years purely because I simply genuinely love doing it. I never had a career in media (I didn't want one because I didn't want to compromise myself with the issues with the industry). So its doing what I want, in a way I want that suits me and I think is important. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Yep I'm a weird, but I think it's a space that matters in so many ways.

Sometimes I feel like I'm talking into the void (and I probably am) so I do appreciate it getting noticed at all.

I do think there's a lot here to suggest things could get very bleak over the coming months. I had a long long rant about it all with my Dad a couple weeks ago. He's a newsfiend in his own right but hadn't grasped a lot of the connections. He knew a lot but not the significance and what the potential implications are. I'm not a complete crackpot. I'm due to go on holiday in a couple of weeks and I have to say the timing isn't what I'd like. To say the least.

Ooh I missed all the drama this morning I see! Glad we don't need to picket MNHQ for the release of RTB's posts! 😅

GeoInsider
A cybersecurity incident has now disrupted Dutch supermarket giant Albert Heijn, following a major cyberattack affecting supermarket refrigeration systems in France.

Albert Heijn, along with Etos and Gall & Gall, has experienced significant IT disruptions since Sunday afternoon. The incident has forced the temporary shutdown of several systems, leaving websites, apps and customer services unavailable.

Online grocery deliveries have been halted, loyalty programmes are not working, and electronic shelf labels in stores are displaying outdated promotional prices instead of current offers.

🇧🇪 The disruption has also affected Belgian supermarket chain Delhaize, where customers are experiencing problems with online orders and customer service.

Parent company Ahold Delhaize says it is taking precautionary measures to protect its IT environment and is investigating the incident. The company has not disclosed the exact cause or confirmed whether customer data has been compromised.

The disruption comes as French supermarket chains, including Intermarché, Super U and E.Leclerc, deal with a separate cyberattack targeting refrigeration-control systems.

It’s worth mentioning that Ahold Delhaize is the world’s 6th-largest retailer. It’s not just some small regional player.

Rumours this morning that Kemi Badenoch is considering reversing the Conservative Party position on Brexit because their polling shows political support for rejoin (the position Labour will adopt for the next election) is a vote winner. She fears them being behind public opinion

Is this a trial balloon to test public opinion. Note the timing. Could be from various different parties btw, not just the Cons - potentially to discredit them too and gain traction for pro-leave parties.

The Conservatives currently have a position of leaving the ECHR which would be completely incompatible with Rejoin.

If this is true, (and as I say it might well be bullshit or just an ongoing thought experiment - the very definition of a trial balloon to test the waters) this shows you how fast British politics is moving and where direction of travel may well be headed. I think the reasons why have been fairly well documented in this thread. They end in the letters 'UMP'.

Personally it really would not surprise me as possible. Direction of travel is always something to watch for either way. What's happening now, is an indicator of where we might be in six months, a year and beyond. If this gains traction - either from Reform, Labour or Conservative circles - expect to see greater chatter about this.

The noise is growing. Burnham is unlikely to have said about Russian interference unless he thought it would land with the public imho. (Which in turn asks questions about what the government think will happen with Trump/Russia).

Zelenskyy is making the point here.

Zelenskyy on twitter an hour ago
When we started responding to Russia’s operation against our data centers, and when our strikes reached Yandex’s data centers, it suddenly became a little easier to breathe on many social media platforms. A lot of people noticed it. There was less hate, less division, and fewer provocations.

Because there were fewer bots. And it’s pretty clear where those bots were coming from – if they disappeared when Yandex went offline. This proves, again and again, that Europe is not the source of the problems. Europe is not the one making everything more difficult.

Most importantly, we need people in America, every morning, when the day in Europe is already moving toward evening, to really see what is happening. To see the truth.

Last night Ukraine's latest war tactics was to send a load of party balloons up in the air. The prevailing winds sent them in the direction of Russia. Russia they had a shit fit and sent multi million pound weapons to take out the drones balloons. Russia can't do the same to Ukraine, 'Because Wind'.

This isn't the first time this tactic has been used in war. During the second world war, Japan did similar to the USA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fu-Go_balloon_bomb

Assymetric warfare. How much are expensive weapons needed in 2026, when a drone or a balloon will do the job. Ukraine are the experts at this. Europe has no defence budget. They need Ukraine.

Just as the US says it's going to halt the sale of weapons to Europe because Ukraine won't surrender to Russia. Trump doesn't get the decisions Europe is being forced to make anymore than he understands Ukraine's position on survival.