Would you vote to re-join the EU in another referendum?

[GorgeousSpringtime]

Simple question. If there is another referendum to re-join the EU, will you be voting to re-join?

This isn't to have a go at anyone who supported Brexit, or who supported Remain, it's just a quick straw poll. Thank you.

If anyone is wondering, (or cares!) I think I will vote to re-join. (I won't say at this point what I voted for last time...)

@EasternStandard ,

Thanks to the wonders of AI, and I must admit I was impressed, I did some very simple modelling of the UK vs US and Germany between 2008 and 2016, and it confirmed we were much more U.S driven over this period.

To find the relationship, we can model the UK's growth rate as a linear function of the US and Germany's growth rates ((\text{UK} = \beta0 + \beta1 \cdot \text{US} + \beta_2 \cdot \text{Germany})) using ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression on the 2008–2016 data.
The resulting coefficients are:

• U.S. Growth Coefficient (\(\beta _{1}\)): 1.084
• Germany Growth Coefficient (\(\beta _{2}\)): 0.141
• Intercept / Constant (\(\beta _{0}\)): -0.757

📐 The Resulting Formula \(\text{UK\ Growth}=-0.757+(1.084\times \text{US\ Growth})+(0.141\times \text{Germany\ Growth})\) 🔍 Key Statistics & Interpretation

• Model Fit (\(R^{2}\)): 0.941 — This indicates that a staggering 94.1% of the variance in the UK's GDP growth between 2008 and 2016 can be explained purely by the combined growth trajectories of the US and Germany.
• Strong US Coupling: The coefficient of 1.084 suggests the UK's economy was highly sensitive to the US during this post-crisis recovery window, tracking its movements almost 1-to-1.
• Muted Germany Link: While Germany's massive 2009 crash heavily correlates with the UK's own drop, over the whole 2008–2016 stretch, Germany's predictive weight (\(\beta_2 = 0.141\)) was far lower than that of the US.

Now that only describes, it doesn’t explain why. However, that doesn’t make it wrong. It is mathematically correct.

When I asked ‘how do economists explain this’, I got the following response, which makes sense to me:

1. Financial Sector Dominance and Anglo-Saxon Capitalism

The UK and US share an "Anglo-Saxon" economic model characterized by a massive reliance on financial and business services rather than the manufacturing-heavy model favored by Germany. 1, 2, 3]

• The Transatlantic Financial Pipeline: The City of London and Wall Street operate almost as a single integrated ecosystem. Because the 2008 Global Financial Crisis was born in the banking sector, both countries suffered immediate, severe systemic shocks that hit asset values and credit channels in near lockstep.
• Germany’s Buffer: Germany's economy, driven by its specialized, export-led industrial base (Mittelstand), was insulated from the immediate domestic banking failures that devastated UK and US service-driven GDPs. 1, 2]

1. Parallel Macroeconomic Policy Actions

When the crisis hit, the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve reacted with identical playbooks, while the European Central Bank (ECB) moved in a very different direction.

• Aggressive Monetary Stimulus: Both the US and the UK aggressively slashed interest rates to near-zero and launched massive, experimental Quantitative Easing (QE) programs to pump liquidity into their financial markets.
• The Eurozone Divergence: Germany, operating within the strictures of the Eurozone, faced a much slower monetary policy response from the ECB. Furthermore, the ensuing Eurozone Debt Crisis (2010–2012) deeply decoupled continental Europe’s growth trajectory, dragging down Germany’s trading partners while the US and UK experienced an unhindered asset-market recovery.

1. Flexible Labour Markets

The UK and US feature highly flexible labor markets with fewer structural regulations compared to Germany’s heavily unionized, rigid employment frameworks.

• Rapid Readjustment: Following the 2008 crash, both US and UK firms rapidly shed workers and cut corporate spending, leading to steep, sudden initial contractions. However, this flexibility also allowed both economies to reallocate resources quickly, sparking a highly synchronized employment and consumer-spending rebound starting in 2010.
• Germany’s Kurzarbeit: Germany utilized state-subsidized short-time work schemes to intentionally hoard labor through the downturn, preventing a US/UK-style sharp drop in employment but flattening out its post-crisis recovery speed. 1]

1. Consumer-Driven Growth Models

The domestic growth engines of the US and UK are remarkably similar: both are heavily reliant on private household consumption fueled by personal credit, corporate equity growth, and housing wealth. When US consumer confidence rebounded and pushed equity markets higher, it directly triggered a wealth effect in the UK, lifting business investment and domestic spending in a way that Germany's heavily savings-oriented economy rarely mirrors.

Definitely a very big NO

@EasternStandard

what is it that would have changed had we remained to make us push past Germany even more than we have? What’s the economic argument for that?

That’s similar to my question;

“What advantage would EU membership five to the UK, but not to France and Germany, that would result in the UK out performing France and Germany more than they have already done by not being in the EU?”

That the NBER model concluded that UK employment had declined over the 10 year period to 2025 is proof that their methodology is flawed. As per the available ONS data, unemployment declined between 2015 and 2024.

A fact which the poster

@Newbutoldfather

has yet to explain

Are you happy to take the nations vote at the last general election as a binding decision? I’d welcome the Labour government staying in power for at least 15 years, but don’t believe that aligns with democratic values (like denying a new EU ref)

From 2008 to 2016, Germany’s economy achieved an overall cumulative real GDP growth of roughly 10.3%, outpacing the United Kingdom's cumulative real GDP growth of approximately 9.3% over the same timeframe

The US was 13.5%

Why use a country that’s outperforming the U.K. as the majority baseline over one that is closer to matching it?

This.
it would be a mistake to rejoin as we would get crap terms now.

That's interesting and maybe explains why economists believe we should track the US more closely.

However, there is a pretty large elephant in the room conclusion as a result of that, which is, if the UK economy tracks and resembles the US more closely, why would we want to couple ourselves to an economic bloc that doesn't ?

An example EU policy might be the proposed one on Chinese EVs, where the bloc I think is proposing protectionist measures, largely to protect the German car industry. This might advantage Germany, but would probably disadvantage the UK as we would lose an import source of cheaper EVs at far less damage to our own GDP base.

Another example of poor EU policy for the UK might be the CAP, where we long negotiated a position of reduced contributions simply because it didn't offer good value for us.

The issue is that you would expect the bloc to implement policy that benefited the core/the weighted average of all the component countries. But if the UK is anomalous in being far away from that core, then the bloc policies would be unlikely to benefit us anywhere near as much as they would the core members of the bloc.

I voted to remain when we voted. Britain has gone downhill since Brexit was adopted.

But we didn’t track to the US post crash.

The figures are clear and known on that.

Pre crash we were all high on gambling in the finance sector and more closely aligned but it diverged post 2008.

I do get your question though and apparently AI / tech is picking up so maybe we don’t want that regulation after all.

Higher Funding: In the first half of 2026, UK AI companies raised €12.6 billion (around £6 billion in the first quarter alone), which surpassed the total raised by the rest of the European Union combined.

@GasPanic ,

I kind of agree with you.

As I said, I think we should rejoin the single market, not the EU.

We would still have to align our standards, but not obey their regulations wholesale.

I think, like all things, it would have its disadvantages. However, I do trust the economists who say it would be a net gain of £50-60 bio, which we could really do with right now.

But retirees have been self sufficient they for decades, they didn't go and live there for free, they paid their way! It wasn't that they weren't paying their way before but now they have to be worth a lot more just get the right to live there! You are inventing false issues to defend the hideous thing you did to your country! I aren't asking you to care about me, I sure as hell couldn't give a stuff about you but you need to realise that most people gave a stuff about their freedom of movement whether it be for retirement, visiting family, businesses, studying, summers working as holiday reps, musicians touring...you badly damaged so much with your vote! Have the decency to understand vast scale of people and jobs impacted by what you voted for and that's not just pensioners wanting to retire overseas who are impacted! You ruined lots of lives, you stole citizenships many of us were born with! As I said on another post you've created a demoralised society where 2 British people can have completely different rights depending on if they can get an EU passport or not! That's disgraceful! You shouldn't have attitude, you should be apologising! Most of the population hate not having their freedom of movement! It's not me that's the minority here, it's you!

@Yogabearmous

it would be a mistake to rejoin as we would get crap terms now.

I agree. The EU would be forced to offer terms which are much less favourable than before. If they didn’t, would it not encourage other members to leave and rejoin on the basis they would be entitled to a better deal?

On the BBC Question Time episode 24 September 2026, it was mentioned that yearly membership fees could be as high as £40 billion per year. That’s three to four times more when UK was a member.

To pay more for less favourable terms makes no sense.

Tbf we only left in 2020 and had the transition period of another year which brings us to 2021. Then covid struck so we were focusing on that. It hasn't really had ten years. Its had maybe 4, two of which were under Keir Starmer.

@FlyingCatGirl

Most of the population hate not having their freedom of movement! It's not me that's the minority here, it's you!

Approximately 1.3 million UK people live in the EU. That’s less than 2% of the UK population. Hardly a majority.

The single market requires freedom of movement.

@Pineneedlesincarpet ,

‘The single market requires freedom of movement.’

I think that is a good thing, especially now the economies are more converged.

I broadly support re-entering the single market, although I worry what consequences that would have for things like the CTPTT.

To what degree the single market is an apolitical market, that is a difficult question to answer.

There is probably some argument that in order to maximise trade, members of a trade agreement should differ in terms of what they want to trade. So for example I see UK-Australia as a good match. We have good services they have good food production and better natural resources. Probably better than any in the EU.

However from what I understand the single markets protectionist policies would prevent the UK taking advantage of that. It is all about using the CAP to prop up local production and shut out cheaper producers from what I can see. Maybe the name single market is a clue.

I see the UKs current requirements in terms of trade to be much better suited to say the CTPTT than Europe. Over time for example we will replace expensive subsidised EU produce with non subsidised produce from other areas, without having to prop up production and make things cost more. In return we export services to resource rich countries.

The EU doesn't strike me as a good single market for us because it is skewed towards services and high tech production rather than natural resources/food production and its members don't seem that complimentary to us and each other in that respect. We end up propping up inefficient producers in other EU states rather than taking the advantage of mutually beneficial trade.

I'd prefer to spend 5-10 years evaluating where the CTPPT takes us rather than just binning it and heading back to the EU.

I suspect as immigration is the number one issue in the UK at the momrnt, the prospect of allowing millions more in especially if the old satellite states are admitted to the EU is probably not a goer.

I really hope AB doesn't let this particular genie out of the bottle. We won't talk about anything else. Which I suppose may keep him busy so he can't do any of his left wing reforms.

In the past we used to blame all the countries problems on EU membership.

Now we appear to blame all the countries problems on not being a member.

I suppose it is easier to claim that than it is to get benefits under control, come up with better taxation policy, improve immigration, deal with the triple lock, national debt etc.

Easier to say that it would all magically go away if we became members of the EU again. Which of course it wouldn't.

David Camerons failed attempt at getting the EU to allow us to control immigration was one of the causes of Brexit.

We won't talk about anything else. Which I suppose may keep him busy so he can't do any of his left wing reforms.

Quite opposite. Everyone will be so excited by EU agenda, on both sides, that yet another redistribution drive will go unnoticed. I wonder if this is the part of the plan as well

You haven't read my comment properly! Anyone who can't get an EU passport through close family relationships has absolutely lost freedom of movement, 67 million people lost freedom of movement unless they can obtain an EU passport! So yes the absolute majority did lose freedom of movement! And it's impacted a lot more things than just who lives in the EU! And that figure of who lives in the EU will drop because the pensioners who have settlement will be dying off and there'll be nowhere near as many to replace them unless they sort freedom of movement out. You call yourself expat, do you live in the EU? If so is it not ok for others to have what you've enjoyed?.
As I said earlier, take the time to understand the full repercussions of a lack of freedom of movement, it's touring professions like musicians, studying, work placements, summer jobs etc, lots of things not just who lives where.

But that's a lie! Get yourself around some central and eastern European countries if the EU! You will struggle to find an immigration issue in many of those countries, you willl hardly.see African or Asian people and they are EU countries who have been allowed to control immigration as they like! Leave voters were made absolute mugs of! We have full ability to control our immigration just like central and eastern Europe have and do!

@FlyingCatGirl

only 17 million of 70 million voted for it

In 2016 there were less than 46 million registered voters. So, where does the figure of 70 million come from?

67 million people lost freedom of movement unless they can obtain an EU passport!

What makes you think 67 million people want freedom of movement?

Regards fewer UK people retiring in the EU, that’s the EUs loss. Both France and Spain attempted to overturn the 90/180 rule for property owners, but so far they have not succeeded.

My SIL is Spanish and his parents sold their rental property on the Mediterranean Sea due to lack of demand post Brexit. So, Spain is the loser.

I am a UK citizen. I obtained a Bulgarian ILR in 2003 before Bulgaria became a member (fraudulently) in 2007.

Worked in, France, Germany and the Netherlands from 2020 to 2025 on a hybrid basis to remain within the 90/180.

@Pineneedlesincarpet ,

The thing is our immigration increased when we left the EU. It is just that the composition changed. Leaving didn’t help us control immigration at all.

The problem with the EU and immigration came when countries like Poland and Romania joined. However, there were transition arrangements for 7 years, which meant that they didn’t have full freedom of movement. Blair just chose to ignore the transition arrangements, which led to a huge influx.

Since then, countries like Poland have become nearly as rich as us, so there is no need to emigrate to earn good money. I don’t see some huge influx if we joined the single market.

As for the potential new entrants, that is pretty theoretical at the moment. Even were they to get membership, transition arrangements would apply again.