Would you vote to re-join the EU in another referendum?

[GorgeousSpringtime]

Simple question. If there is another referendum to re-join the EU, will you be voting to re-join?

This isn't to have a go at anyone who supported Brexit, or who supported Remain, it's just a quick straw poll. Thank you.

If anyone is wondering, (or cares!) I think I will vote to re-join. (I won't say at this point what I voted for last time...)

@FlyingCatGirl ,

Most people who travel tend to ‘travel’ to the nice bits!

Is racism really worse in the UK than most of continental Europe? This is what AI says:

‘When measured against member states of the European Union, the
UK generally records lower levels of self-reported racial harassment and implicit bias, though significant structural inequalities persist.
While comparative data routinely places the UK among the least racist countries in Europe, researchers note that the UK’s extensive legal framework and mandatory data collection make its internal racial disparities much more visible than those in many EU nations. 1, 2, 3]’

And as a person of Jewish descent, I am much more comfortable in the UK than France, say (outside of Paris) or Austria. The far right is worse, mainly, in the EU than the UK.

So why do you say the kind of things a leave voter would say! Why are you so snipey and abusive to me if we apparently on the same side! How could you make such a stupid comment about freedom of movement being a middle class thing if you aren't a leave voter! You should fully know that the EU was open to everyone if every class if you weren't a leave voter! When I agree about rejoining, you still snipe at me and make up stupid things about what I've said! Drop it and stop arguing with every valid point I've made if you aren't a leave voter!

@nearlylovemyusername ,

It’s only a good measure of credit risk within the same currency!

Different currencies have different inflation expectations and credit risks.

A more direct measure of fear of default is something called the credit default swap:

The French CDS is 80bps, implying a theoretical 1/125 chance of defaulting within 5 years.

The UK CDS is 25bps, or 1/400 chance of defaulting within 5 years.

80bps is a scary level for a major sovereign country.

Its the delta that kills you in management, either of your own personal finances or a countries.

So long as you have time to prepare you can deal with a lot. But if it goes up quickly then you are in trouble.

France delta since the start of the year on the 10 year is about 2%, whereas the UK is only about 1%.

The amount you want to borrow is also significant. I don't know what the exact figures are, but I would guess the Uk will borrow 50% of what France does over the year.

Where in the EU/EEA/EFTA has lower income tax rates than the UK?

From what I know they also love punishing success and high earners.

DH and I are encouraging my DC to move to the ME where salaries are higher and there's 0% income tax. Also encouraging perhaps SG or even the no state income tax states in America.

I agree with the euro comments. Appreciating some economics on mn too.

I'm willing to bet you have misconceptions about where is nice! I've been to Bosnia twice, Serbia, Albania twice, travelled around Transylvania, travelled a bit of Bulgaria, been to Macedonia, Slovenia, been to Budapest 4 times, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, been to Poland twice, did Tblisi, Georgia and Azerbaijan last year with a day trip to Armenia! Did Tangier in recent years and Istanbul, been to a few places in Germany, recently visit Nuremberg, I've been to most countries in Europe up to now bar about 2! Trust me when I tell you that I adore the Balkan countries and Eastern Europe and could very happily live in most of them!
I'm the wrong person to challenge on "travel" when my partner and are known for our unusual holiday choices! Long Haul includes Barbados, St Lucia, St Kitts and Nevis, Grenada (St Lucia is a bit meh), Havana, Cuba,Rio de Janeiro, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Singapore, Vietnam, Goa (didn't like Goa), NYC, Florida (wouldn't go to Florida again but was ok), Sri Lanka, Thailand, been exploring the Yucatan of Mexico in recent years. It's seldom I see anywhere that I don't think is a better quality of life than back home.

@EasternStandard ,

‘Going back to major studies measuring the impact of leaving I still don’t get the inclusion of the US. We matched Germany more from 2008 to 2016 not the US so why assume we’d be matching the US with 61% rating post 2016?’

To address this! Firstly, I linked to 3 studies, which all showed the same thing (although at different levels). The Bloomberg study entirely removed the U.S, and the Cambridge econometric model used a completely different method, looking at how specific sectors were affected and then amalgamating them.

I am not an econometric expert, but I do have a decent knowledge of maths and statistics, so if there are any real experts here, please correct me!

What the NEBR study did was a complex piece of multi variable regression, which means it said let’s replace the Uk with a weighted sum of different large global economies and see which weights give the best approximation to UK growth for 10 years (say) pre Brexit. Then let’s use the same weightings post Brexit and compare it to how the UK actually did. It has validity but, like all predictions, can be flawed.

The Bloomberg study said other things changed after Brexit, such as the UK tech boom and the energy crisis, which affected Europe and the UK more than the U.S. So, it stripped the U.S out and replaced it with France and Germany and said we lost 2-4% opportunity cost (rather than 6-8%, from the NEBR study).

I do think we still had some correlation with the U.S so I am guessing maybe we lost 3-5%. Anyway, we did lose significantly. I can’t see any economists disputing that.

You want your child to move to a part of the world at war with the US? How many parts of the middle east do you think are safe right now? Was you asleep when Iran was bombing most of the middle east earlier this year! How can any parent think like you do! It's obscene!

We’ve kept pace with Germany pretty much. From 2008 to 2026 there’s not much in it.

Using the US is flawed. Using just Germany and level to us less so. However it all assumes we’d be doing better than other countries from 2016 to now had we not left.

That wasn’t the case from 2008 to 2016, so what changes in 2016 plus remain to cause our modelled acceleration?

In fact looking it up we grew more than Germany. We were even until 2016 and then pushed ahead.

Yes. I voted to stay then and I’d vote to go back in, now.

@EasternStandard ,

‘We’ve kept pace with Germany pretty much. From 2008 to 2026 there’s not much in it.

Using the US is flawed. Using just Germany and level to us less so. However it all assumes we’d be doing better than other countries from 2016 to now had we not left.’

How can you just assert that using the U.S as a component is flawed? The people who did this all had phds and it takes some serious computing power!

We clearly (as the whole world does) have a correlation to the U.S. How much is unclear, but it’s sensible to use them as a component.

Yes, studies should be questioned and challenged, which is why they are published in journals subject to peer review. And that one was challenged by another study by Bloomberg which excluded the U.S entirely (which is probably too far the other way) and still found quite a big cost.

But, we all do need to have respect for expertise. Otherwise we can all just have random guesses at anything we want to.

There are other sunny countries you can go to. So many in the world.

I think a pension of £30k a year is sensible and reasonable to have achieved with hard work and sensible saving patterns.

I've been to Madrid in the winter. It snowed and it was cold. So what do expect you're gonna be doing in the winters there? If was cold and rainy and there was snow.

If you really want to move, find a way to move and go. Also do you expect another nations taxpayers to pay for your healthcare then?

That's a lot of carbon emissions. Have you thought about the environment?

@FlyingCatGirl ,

I can see you have done a lot of interesting travel but I am still willing to bet you chose to visit interesting and nice places within all those countries!

I am sure you didn’t investigate any of the rough suburbs which aren’t that safe or interesting. Travelling and living are two very different things.

To talk about a country I know well, Paris is one of my favourite cities in the whole world and my French is passable. I love to stay in the 5th and mooch around the Latin quarter and left bank etc etc I don’t, however, pop into what they call the cites (no idea how to do the acute accent) where there have been riots and racial tension.

And I know (from having had a family member living there) that there is a considerable amount of casual antisemitism in la France profonde.

Everywhere has its own problems, and the UK is far from the worst place to be.

Yes hence being amazed they weighted it to US at 61%. It is a general criticism of the NBER if you look so fortunately I didn’t have to invent the wheel on that. And the pls respect line is thankfully defunct as it’s not just me saying it.

It does amaze me that the study would use an outlier growth and not use Germany. And

But that aside, what is it that would have changed had we remained to make us push past Germany even more than we have? What’s the economic argument for that?

Yes my partner and I have got the relevant pensions because we never had kids and have always both worked full time and had careers, but not everybody has got that especially when the wife has had many years as a stay at home mum and maybe done a bit of part time work here and there, women in that position are getting about £68 a week pension! That's about £273 a month. You are talking £3600 pension a year tops for those women! So the husband has to have about £28k pension a year to make up for it if they want to retire to the usual popular parts of the EU! People used to go with whatever money they had and of course they've always paid for any health care when they've needed it! Ex pats have done it for decades before the opportunity to retire overseas was taken from the majority of them.

Don't worry my partner and I are considering all our options, it could be Cyprus, it may be a Balkan country, there's lots to consider because we don't want end up somewhere that's 40 odd degrees all summer or maybe even 50+ by the time we retire in about 15 years. There's a lot to consider, but the point is that Brexit has stolen the right of many people to even consider anything.

My OH works extensively in the region. He's back and forth. There are always tensions and flareups. The area has world class defense systems, no one in these cities actually is scared and even talks about it. The region will persevere and thrive. There's so much growth and things happening and no income tax.

I voted Remain in 2016 butthe idea of this topic being re-run again fills me with dread. Nightmare. I voted undecided in this poll, that said. There are some contexts where I MIGHT risk it given the terms offered but I am very wary and also I would be worried it would open the door to another Scottish Referendum.

Ah that's where you are wrong, my partner and I love wandering into the burbs, we like grime and graffiti, we like old Soviet brutalist architecture, we've always liked exploring to see how people actually live. Serbia is a brilliant example, we stayed in Belgrade primarily and visited Novisad by train, sure enough you've got your big soviet era apartment blocks with lots of families and couples etc living inside but their areas are clean, their governments give them so many parks, barbecue areas, green spaces, beaches on the river banks, a massive man made lake for watersports with bars, cafes and restaurants around it. They don't have chavs or feral kids, they don't have vandalism, it's cheap to go out to eat and drink, the government spend money giving them a decent quality of life. And being honest because they've controlled immigration from outside of Europe, it gets rid of a lot of problems that cause resentment and racism.

The Scottish wouldn't feel the need for a referendum if we had close ties with the EU again, it would be pointless for them because they'd be very alone and isolated with no trade deals, not much industry up there, it would be impossible to put hard borders in between Scotland and England because it would split towns and villages in half. That's why referendums are being kiboshed for Scotland because it would be even more stupid than Brexit itself, all the would increase in Scotland is deprivation and drug issues.

EU countries Income taxes are comparable with UK, although nowhere else they have 62% like we do on 100k-125k.

The difference is CGT and IHT, they are much lower. Many countries don't have IHT at all, even when they do, the rate is significantly lower that our 40%. This drives a lot of wealth out.

Oh, and Italy has flat rate of now 200k on income generated outside of the country, so if you're a very high earner and can work remotely, or own a business in UK, it makes all sense to move there. And Italy is not Sudan really, so culture and lifestyle can compete with UK (this is before we start talking about food)

ETA: nothing to do with Brexit topic, just chatting - Germany has an interesting case. They introduced Active Pension Act which allows people past retirement age to earn up to 24k pa from employment completely tax free. Like most EU countries they have an issue with ageing population and some shortages of skills, so they made a very clever policy to entice more people into work. Plus active lifestyle benefits people in general and elder people in particular. Can you imagine howling here if we'd introduce the same? "subsidising boomers at the cost of young!"

@EasternStandard ,

‘It does amaze me that the study would use an outlier growth and not use Germany.’

That’s the whole point of that kind of study! They didn’t choose, they set up the parameters and the computer did. That is what makes it objective.

‘But that aside, what is it that would have changed had we remained to make us push past Germany even more than we have? What’s the economic argument for that?
Edited’

We do have a greater correlation to the U.S than most of mainland Europe. This is due to us having a big finance and service sector. We are closer to Europe than the U.S but when the U.S outperforms the EU, we outperform the EU but not by nearly as much, and vice versa.

Again Spain require retirees to be self sufficiently. If you can't support yourself then what are you doing there?

Why would worry about you? Go where ever you want to go and follow that country's rules.

If you dislike this country so much you can move and find somewhere else to be.

I can’t see either of these points are the case.

One study used the US at 61% and others didn’t. The outcomes were very different. People can make mistakes with methodology of course hence the broad spread of numbers coming out.

The second one also isn’t the case. Look at growth from 2008 to 2016. We match Germany not the US.

If you look at growth figures post 2008 crash you’ll see who we’re closer to in performance. Ie Germany.