Would you vote to re-join the EU in another referendum?

[GorgeousSpringtime]

Simple question. If there is another referendum to re-join the EU, will you be voting to re-join?

This isn't to have a go at anyone who supported Brexit, or who supported Remain, it's just a quick straw poll. Thank you.

If anyone is wondering, (or cares!) I think I will vote to re-join. (I won't say at this point what I voted for last time...)

@FlyingCatGirl ,

‘We need frictionless trade and freedom of movement back’

Just joining the single market would deliver both of them. We don’t need full membership for that.

The EU Single Market functions as an internal market without borders, guaranteeing the free movement of goods, services, capital, and people across 27 member states. 1, 2]
✅ The Four Core Freedoms

• Goods: Zero tariffs and harmonized standards (CE marking).
• Services: Cross-border operations without nationality-based discrimination.
• Capital: Unrestricted financial transfers and investments.
• People: Freedom to live, work, and retire anywhere in the EU. 1, 2]

Fair enough, if be well happy with that if we can at least achieve that. Hopefully Andy Burnham can pull that off.

@FlyingCatGirl ,

‘It's not that big a deal switching to the euro, for those of those that travel to the EU a lot it save the hassle of converting money every time.’

That’s showing a scary lack of knowledge as to what a currency is!

Ask Greece how they enjoyed the Euro when they couldn’t fund themselves without a bailout and had a meaningful depression afterwards.

If you look at my pastes on this thread (of Google any meaningful economic research) and you will see the pluses and minuses of the Euro explained. Personally, I think a single currency without economic convergence and a single fiscal policy is very foolhardy, so I wouldn’t want us to adopt it.

I for one would be happy to cede control of our monetary policy in return for being able to buy more tat at Christmas markets.

I mean, it may completely screw the housing market and destroy the economy and peoples jobs and lifestyles in a crack up boom, but it would all be worth it to be able to hang shiny glittery star things on Christmas trees.

Greece got itself into trouble because they weren't taxing anybody for anything! Plenty of countries have joined the EU and switched to the Euro.

@FlyingCatGirl ,

‘Greece got itself into trouble because they weren't taxing anybody for anything! Plenty of countries have joined the EU and switched to the Euro.’

Ummm, every single southern European country was in deep trouble in the Euro crisis, and France is in trouble right now (though it may have been averted for a few weeks). Having a single monetary policy for different countries with different economies is intrinsically problematic.

The idea is the economies will converge, but without significant subsidies from the richer to the poorer countries, why should they? And, if you do move the funds (which has been done a little in a sneaky way via the ECB) without asking the people in the richer countries to vote for it, it is undemocratic. I wouldn’t want to be a part of a French bailout if it came to it; would you?!

The single market (which is what Norway and Switzerland have) would give you what you want without the Euro.

Why be such a snide and invent silly scenarios!
You hate Christmas markets clearly but why be abusive? Plenty of other people like them and feel sad that Brexit has cost us that tradition. I don't care much for the ones in the UK but have you ever been to the ones in Germany and seen how nice they are? I have and they aren't tat or cheap Christmas decorations either!

The EU hasn't got anything to do with housing markets, do you think the housing market has been brilliant since Brexit! For years now there's been more houses than buyers, your Brexit has cost too many jobs, made food shopping hellishly expensive and you think Brexit hasn't impacted people's affordability to buy a house! Brexit was poison for jobs and affordability.

Just to add, if you have a single currency the 10 year bond yield is pretty much a pure measure of credit risk (probability of default).

Right now, French ten year bonds yield 4.89% and German 10 year bonds yield 3.52%. In simple terms, this 1.4% difference means that France has about a 1/50 chance of actually defaulting on its bonds over the next 10 years. And these yields are a nasty feedback loop as they feed back into France’s annual costs.

The Euro notes might be really pretty and convenient , especially the Eur 500 (which has now been abolished, as it was mostly used by criminals), but that is not a reason to join the Euro.

Whatever! I'm not interested in over analysing every little financial issue any other EU country has had, fine if we don't fully join, we don't fully si long as we repair the main bulk of the damage and get freedom of movement back! How is it fair that two Brits could work side by side for life but if one has an EU passport and the other can't get one, one person can easily retire overseas whilst the other may be prohibited financially from doing so! Brexit brought inequality and discrimination! Look at Farage, he soon ran off to get EU passports for himself and his family! Imagine kids that have been to school together but one has an EU passport and can go off repping or doing bar work for a season in the Med and the other can't! That inequality should nevee have been allowed to happen!

@FlyingCatGirl ,

Let’s agree on the single market then?

The issues I highlight with the Euro aren’t trivial though. Potentially, they could be huge-on your taxes.

And your middle class arguments about ‘inequality’ about retiring to the sun or students working in bars abroad (although not wrong) are the kind of thing that got us leaving in the first place. It’s not inequality! If I had a Kenyan passport, I could retire to a beach house in Mombasa, and someone who didn’t couldn’t. That ain’t inequality!

The arguments that matter, and where you are right, are freedom of movement of goods and people, which are worth tens of billions of pounds to the economy.

Oh fuck off, did I say the notes were pretty at any point or state that's why I want to rejoin the EU! You are being pathetically snide again! Notice how I haven't sunk to your level! Why keep abusing me for things I haven't even said? I have been to 63 countries and trust me there are more decorative notes then the euro, a personal favourite for me is South African money with animals on. This conversation is over, I've said fair play let's not fully rejoin if we can get free trade and freedom of movement back. I can't put up with your silly childish outbursts any longer, everything I've wrote and all your brain could come up with is "but but but you only want to rejoin the EU because the notes are pretty" .

I don't hate Christmas markets.

Silly doom laden scenarios ? Indeed ... why would anyone invent these.

I just happen to think currencies are important and with that good control of currency is important. Whereas Christmas markets are trivial.

There are good reasons to be in and out of the EU/EZ, but Christmas markets aren't one of them.

Going back to major studies measuring the impact of leaving I still don’t get the inclusion of the US. We matched Germany more from 2008 to 2016 not the US so why assume we’d be matching the US with 61% rating post 2016?

It seems such a basic methodological flaw.

We tracked with Germany from 2008 to 2016 and not that different now, perhaps slightly ahead due to Russia. So use that as a basis for performance over the US which is an outlier.

Here you go again! Middle class? Are you mental? The freedom of movement issue has gone so far over your head that they can see it from space! The point is you didn't have to be middle class to retire overseas! People went to Spain on basic pensions with a bit of money from selling their houses in the UK to get a little apartment or a static caravan in Spain! Most people of any class could do it if they'd wanted to because no financial requirements existed! You've made it middle class! You voted for a minimal financial requirement which is out of the realms of most people's pensions of anyone who isn't middle class! I'm not middle class, I'm telling you how your vote attacked the lower classes and made it just for higher earners! Own what you are to blame for!

Farage does not have an EU passport..his kids do because their mother(s) are citizens of an EU nation.

It would be very hypocritical if he got an EU passport for himself.

He would say (and I don't really like him very much) if you want to move to an EU country so much then apply for the visa, and fill out the form and go. Do it the right way!

I have written more than enough now to justify why we should be back in the single market and have freedom of movement, I hardly said it was just about Xmas markets! Stop being bloody silly about it.

People from the UK can still move abroad. If you really really want to go, apply for the visa and move.

Why is the whole thing about the EU being wanting to leave the country you're actually a citizen in?

Ok tell me you don't know what you voted for without telling me you don't know what you've voted for! Let me explain a few things to you, having a chunk of the population retire overseas was beneficial because those people could keep a lot healthier in the warm sunshine, be less at the mercy of painful conditions that cold weather exacerbates, that's a chunk of people not burdening the NHS winter!
These visas you speak of, do you think you just ask for it and you get it? Well here's the kicker, Brexit now means that such as Spain want a retired couple to have at least 30k of pension money coming in a year - do you think many people have got that? Especially couples where the wife as been mainly a stay at home mum and part time worker! The visa isn't the issue, it's the big fat Brexit price tag you voted to put on it!

Now far more of the elderly population are here and suffering more health issues that burden the NHS in winter! I have fibromyalgia, I was diagnosed this year and I have felt a difference in pain levels since the heat of summer went, my life would be a lot better when I reach retirement if I can live in a warmer year round climate.

Maybe because this country doesn't treat you well? maybe because if you're high achiever other countries actually celebrate you, not vilify you?

Or it might be even more simple than this - maybe you want to experience other cultures, explore different opportunities without having to break the ties? or travel around without spending hours queueing at passport control? or maybe you actually enjoy diversity of people coming here from other cultures with similar values?

Also just to add, we live in a country that's way more expensive than a lot of Europe, we are always at risk of Russia or Iran playing games, racism is horrific now, we can't have news articles about ethic people without racist comments vomited all over it, even if it's a completely irrelevant article the racists will shoehorn boat people comments into it, more and more kids are feral than ever - you wonder why many of us who are well travelled enough to see how much better it is abroad want to get out to somewhere better eventually!

@FlyingCatGirl ,

‘I'm telling you how your vote attacked the lower classes and made it just for higher earners! Own what you are to blame for!’

It’s funny you think I voted ‘leave’ when I am consistently advocating rejoining the single market! I actually voted ‘Remain’!

It is very typical of today that people expect you to be passionately on one side of the argument of the other, and any nuanced post is seen by both sides to be against them.

Remain fought an appalling campaign, highlighting all the things that people who were always going to vote remain liked, and not bothering to even try to appeal to those who had become disillusioned. I hope those who want to rejoin the single market (or even EU, although I don’t) actually listen to the other side of the debate and try and persuade people, rather than assuming that they are either thick or racist (or both).

All models make assumptions.

It's what assumptions you chose to make and how you justify them.

It's also worth remembering that economics is largely just a continuation of politics by other means :)

There are lots of issues with economic calculations, but some are more easily quantifed than others.

For example you could argue that the UK behaviour will be a hybrid of the US's economic performance and Europes. You could establish the parameters that define the amount each bloc contributes to the hybrid based on macro parameters. All good.

Then you begin to realise that there are things that are not easily quantified in macro parameters that also might affect performance. For example if a new or novel technology is affecting economic output, how will this affect the hybrid ? The answer is difficult to quantify because it is not only reflected in macro data, but also how the technology is adopted in the different environments. For example the US has a great environment for technology adoption that allows it to outperform Europe in many instances. How would you feed that into the model, or even establish that the new technology is having an effect on the macro data ?

I suppose the TLDR of all this ramble is that building economic models is complex, especially in an uncertain world where events (Covid, wars, AI, Net zero) are developing rapidly that might have a significant effect on macro data.

The only way to know why the modellers chose to make that assumption is if it were given in the text (it maybe based on an "establish assumption" which will be cited), or to ask them.

Thank god! Another sensible person has arrived! I've travelled Europe enough to see the better quality of life that exists in much of the continent compared to here!

I need to work this out for a bit. A major study tied to US growth at 61% and came out will billions lost due to Brexit.

Now re-do with Germany which is a pretty good match for the U.K. from 2008 to 2016 and see what comes out. We’re still level with them so those billions lost will dissipate.

That modelling will influence the OBR and actual policy. I’m incredulous at this point. I’m wondering how they used what they did.

Are you serious?
UK gilts are 5.42%, Hayley would probably kill for French 4.89%. And this is without us having riots on the streets.