Would you vote to re-join the EU in another referendum?

[GorgeousSpringtime]

Simple question. If there is another referendum to re-join the EU, will you be voting to re-join?

This isn't to have a go at anyone who supported Brexit, or who supported Remain, it's just a quick straw poll. Thank you.

If anyone is wondering, (or cares!) I think I will vote to re-join. (I won't say at this point what I voted for last time...)

I still think..you add frictions to a large trade partner. It can't exactly improve things can it

Looking it up we diverged in 2008 from the US which is not surprising. Pre-Brexit by a fair while but shows using US growth as a base line in a report seems off.

Growth Gap: The US economy has consistently grown faster than the UK economy, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis. US GDP growth rates have frequently doubled those of the UK

@EasternStandard ,

‘Looking it up we diverged in 2008 from the US which is not surprising. Pre-Brexit by a fair while but shows using US growth as a base line in a report seems off.

Growth Gap: The US economy has consistently grown faster than the UK economy, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis. US GDP growth rates have frequently doubled those of the UK’

No one has modelled the UK as 100% U.S! The NEBR model was 61% U.S., which does seem high to me. But, as I said, with the U.S completely removed, Bloomberg said Brexit cost us 2-4%.

And that is also too extreme. When Wall Street does well, The City does well, and The City contributes quite a lot to the UK economy. France and Germany don’t really have similar.

These studies reinforce one another and all three use either different data or different methods, so although the precise cost can’t be determined, it is very strong evidence of a very significant cost.

@Newbutoldfather

It wasn’t a fudge! It was a computer model and the computer picked the highest correlation countries. We are correlated to the EU via trade and the U.S via market structure and finance. Much more so than France or Germany.

Contradictory. Whether or not UK decision to leave the EU was good or bad can only be done by comparison to EU members that have not left the EU.

The US has never been in the EU. Also, US economy is more than double the size of, France, Germany and UK combined. So, where does the correlation come from?

If the UK losses are large, why is growth in France and Germany lower if being in the EU creates more opportunity?

No study at all has found a gain!!

So,

lower tariffs applied by the US is not a gain?

lower immigration than the EU is not a gain?

higher growth than the EU is not a gain?

Remember how wrong the studies were in 2016

Two main issues with the NBER, rather than rewrite this pretty much is it -

the US economy has been a massive global outlier since 2020, experiencing unprecedented tech and investment booms. Because the NBER model heavily weights the US to match pre-2016 UK growth trends, the report essentially penalizes the UK for not matching America’s post-pandemic tech boom—a boom that the UK would unlikely have achieved even inside the EU

And

an 8% loss would imply that the UK economy should be vastly smaller than its European peers. However, post-2016 UK real GDP grew at a comparable rate to France and Germany. For the NBER's 8% figure to be accurate, the UK would have had to wildly outperform every major economy in Europe had it stayed in the EU—an assumption critics call highly implausible

So these two things sound relevant and plausible and even though the economists are quite serious these two factors seem obvious wrt the claim.

@Grower37

I still think..you add frictions to a large trade partner. It can't exactly improve things can it

There are no frictions on UK services. Hence, they have grown since 2019.

Statistics on UK-EU trade - House of Commons Library

Exporters of goods have faces friction, but they represent approximately 16% of UK GDP compared to services which is over 80%. So, it made more sense for UK to give priority to services when deciding on Brexit.

@EEexpat ,

I’m sorry but some of your points just don’t make a lot of sense.

‘Contradictory. Whether or not UK decision to leave the EU was good or bad can only be done by comparison to EU members that have not left the EU.’

Why? If, within the EU, our growth would have been 1% (say) better than France and Germany and it was the same, we have still lost 1%/annum due to leaving.

‘The US has never been in the EU. Also, US economy is more than double the size of, France, Germany and UK combined. So, where does the correlation come from?’

A correlation is a mathematical construct. As to explaining it, I gave it a go via The City and the large percentage of our economy made up of services. That is far more similar to the the U.S than France or Germany.

The size of the economy is irrelevant. We are talking growth rates and those are percentage increases, so 100 to 110 is the same as 1000 to 1,100, both 10%.

‘If the UK losses are large, why is growth in France and Germany lower if being in the EU creates more opportunity?’

It’s not an actual loss, as we have not had a recession, it’s an opportunity loss. We could have been around 5% richer by now. The main opportunity is friction and cost free trade. As I have said, I am more in favour of just the single market than rejoining fully. There are other advantages to full membership, but there are also risks.

It does create more opportunity, but there are a lot of other factors at play. France has appalling debt and a failing political system and Germany has suffered more from the energy crisis than others.

‘lower tariffs applied by the US is not a gain?
lower immigration than the EU is not a gain?
higher growth than the EU is not a gain?’

Only the first is a gain. The second is probably a loss, given the substitution we made and the third is the subject of the whole rest of the argument!

@EasternStandard

an 8% loss would imply that the UK economy should be vastly smaller than its European peers. However, post-2016 UK real GDP grew at a comparable rate to France and Germany.

Correct. Before the UK left the EU, the only EU member who had a larger economy than UK was Germany. That fact remains the same today.

If EU membership creates more trading opportunity, why have, France, Italy and Spain GDP not surpassed UK?

@Newbutoldfather

Why? If, within the EU, our growth would have been 1% (say) better than France and Germany and it was the same, we have still lost 1%/annum due to leaving.

I have heard similar from other posters. My reply was

"What advantage would EU membership give to the UK, but not to France and Germany, that would enable UK to grow faster than France and Germany than it already had done since leaving the EU?"

It’s not an actual loss, as we have not had a recession, it’s an opportunity loss. We could have been around 5% richer by now.

Pleased that you have acknowledged its theoretical as opposed to actual by the underlined text,

The main opportunity is friction and cost free trade

There is no friction to services trade. Services are, to quote yourself;

and the large percentage of our economy made up of services

Moving on to

lower tariffs applied by the US is not a gain?
lower immigration than the EU is not a gain?
higher growth than the EU is not a gain?’

Only the first is a gain. The second is probably a loss, given the substitution we made and the third is the subject of the whole rest of the argument!

As per the remain argument, the first was an impossibility on the basis that big blocks have more muscle than small blocks.

The second wrecks the remain argument higher immigration was due to Brexit as UK is no longer part of the Dublin Agreement.

Higher growth than, France, Germany and Italy is factual.

Based on the above, why rejoin? Which was the OP question. My reply is

I would not vote to rejoin.

I find the assumption in the NBER report bizarre. It seems sure we’d match the US growth which was tech driven if we had stayed.

There’s no indication that would be the case, we diverged after 2008 for obvious reasons.

Why would we have kept up with the US when we weren’t already from 2008 to 2016?

Fair enough. I also know that our AI and tech dereg has been helpful. Friend I had found it so much easier to set up his AI business and to grow it with the lighter rules

@EasternStandard

Why would we have kept up with the US when we weren’t already from 2008 to 2016?

Another good question.

For me, the biggest flaw in the NBER report is their estimate that UK employment would have been 3 to 4% higher had the UK not left the EU. The complete opposite of the ONS data which demonstrated unemployment declined over the period 2015 to 2024. The same period NBER reviewed.

@Grower37

Fair enough. I also know that our AI and tech dereg has been helpful. Friend I had found it so much easier to set up his AI business and to grow it with the lighter rules.

Good for them.

It seems to be the exporters of goods that have the biggest gripe over Brexit due to increased paperwork. Considering there are many countries outside the EU trade goods with the EU, why is it a problem for the UK? If other countries can make it work, what can't the UK?

Wow, this thread sure got a lot of responses!!! And 4 out of 5 would rejoin. Nearly 3330 votes!!!!!!

Thanks so much everyone for taking part.

There may be a number who, like me, didn't vote on this thread because we had a referendum, voted to leave the EU and are still happy to have left. I certainly don't want to waste any energy on going over it all again! And had the referendum resulted in Remain in the EU, I honestly wouldn't still be banging onabout it, even though i would privately be spitting nails about paying for yet another lot of layers of government Look, it's done. Let's all just make the best of it.

Ofcourse most want to rejoin but the implications will be horrendous. Europe is in an almighty mess, they will demand we get rid of the pound and it will cost everyone dearly just as it did for my parents when the Dutch guilder went to euro.

Do people really think it is likely that we will fully rejoin the EU rather than just rejoining the single market?

I would suspect it is extremely unlikely due to both the division that it would cause and the Euro question.

I think Burnham has been quite clever. He has mentioned rejoining to anchor people’s expectations, so when he says he wants to rejoin the single market, both sides will be happy.

The single market would solve most of the issues (maybe all of them?) remainers want whilst simultaneously reassuring people of our continued monetary and military independence.

Of course, we could further cooperate on specific issue by negotiation and be in a good position to rejoin fully in the future should both circumstances and opinion swing that way.

And this right here is the issue, you can't accept the result of this poll, you can't accept that Brexit has been a disaster and barely anyone wants it. Leave voters didn't like that we remain voters didn't accept the original result for many good reasons including the fact that only 17 million of 70 million voted for it and now this result shows a true strength of feeling, you can't accept it.
It's a big problem for anyone wanting to work or retire overseas and that needs addressing, Xmas is looming and we've lost many big Xmas markets because Brexit has made it nightmare for the stall holders to come over here from the continent. It's depressing! We've not achieved a single benefit and it's took so much away from us and made life crap and expensive! It's right and fair to put it to bed as a failure that hasn't work, it's had ten years and its no good in it's current form.

Polls show support for re-joining drops if it means the Euro. Which is more relevant than this mn poll.

Politicians have lied about the EU since we joined.

Various parties have promised referendums and then not delivered. I think all three major parties promised a referendum on EU membership at some point including the Lib Dems. Some parties of course didn't get elected. Others when they did get elected fudged it and refused to hold them.

So no, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Burnham said he had a long term plan to rejoin the EU, while simultaneously doing nothing at all about it.

We need frictionless trade and freedom of movement back! The only movement Brexit stole seems to be our own! More big Xmas markets have been cancelled this year because stall holders from the continent have too much hassle getting here, we pay stupid prices for the weekly shop because there's no getting away from how much produce, ingredients etc come from the EU!

He’s switched from not joining at all or going back to the issue at Makerfield to full rejoin four months later. He’s fine with saying whatever even if it’s a lie.

It's not that big a deal switching to the euro, for those of those that travel to the EU a lot it save the hassle of converting money every time.

That’s good for you but generally the support drops.

I don't believe it does! Why should it be an issue? How many people visit France, Spain, Italy etc each year! I'm hardly the only one! It would surely make life easier for trade and international companies that are based both here and and on the continent if we are all on the same currency. Going back into the EU and adopting the Euro might probably encourage more companies to set up shop here!