To think Andy Burnham needs to start to show us he can talk about more than "the north" and "buses"

[joeymaynardssandwiches]

I want to get behind Andy Burnham, I feel he's got the potential to be a great counterpoint to the rise of reform. And I do know it's "silly season" in politics and with parliament closed I guess there's a limit on what initiatives can be announced

But so far it feels like he hasn't broken away from being a northern caricature who just bangs on about buses.

I'm a "northerner" (who always thought of Manchester as the part of Midlands ) but I can only do my job in the south and I can assure Andy there are big pockets of deprivation in the south too.

And I am all for public transport, and investment in it. But it just feels like a real "low hanging fruit" approach for his first few weeks and I want to hear him talk about thornier and less uncontroversial issues.

And admittedly I haven't been reading every news story in depth as I have been busy with the kids so he may have discussed other things. But that is my overriding impression at the moment and it feels a bit frustrating

Ah Labour don’t like that one, it comes from their own party 😬

Bingo! It is like the "there is no money" note and will be rolled out for years.

Well you voted for it. If you don’t like what he’s saying take it up with your party.

Well the conservatives spent it on
on Covid parties and PPE so I guess us working class/middle to lower class, middle to upper aristocracy rich class/farming and livestock class just need to suck it up.

I have zero problem with what McFadden said. People should be able to state their views and frustrations freely and frankly.

So what’s the issue? It’s how many see your party, even people in it.

I actually think you’re correct, I’ve said this too.

It feels like politics is all about the rhetoric and not about the “doing,” if that makes sense?

I didn't say there was an issue. I just made an accurate observation. You seem to be taking issue with some of my posts, though, even ones that aren't directly addressing you. I will bow out now as I find this sort of endless back and forth tedious and it's a waste of time for us both.

If you’re going to make vague statements about lines and posters you may as well be direct.

Is the Sainsburys work scheme paid or unpaid

I keep seeing online that it’s unpaid. So we are subsiding Sainsburys and denying people jobs. How much experience do people need in a supermarket job. It’s generally a starter job for a teenager with no experience.

Redcar council have this initiative starting soon, there should be much more of this.
https://www.redcar-cleveland.gov.uk/jobs-and-careers/young-persons-paid-work-experience-programme

Exactly i have a teen who needs a job
He s already done 19 week of unpaid work exoerience in an electrical store as part of a course last year
Hes not academic university isnt for him he needs paid work not more work experience
I have never been a nstural labour voter but i like Andy Burnham and i like fact he wants young peoole in work
But unpaid work experience
isnt the answer.

I want young people in work too! If AB can overhaul the apprenticeship program I’d be over the moon. We are heading towards a time where people will no longer be going to Uni due to fees and a loss of confidence about finding graduate positions once their course ends, so it’s imperative we get young people learning vocational skills. Maybe he could try and invigorate manufacturing and we can get making stuff again!

No one is subsidising Sainsbury‘s - the work experience initiative is an internal corporate programme funded by Sainsbury's. The government is backing and facilitating it, rather than paying for it, so, for example part of the Government’s role is to make sure the young people who need it most get access to it.

It’s the kind of public/ private partnership Andy Burnham is very into, so I can see why he’s all over it; one of his core principles when he was Greater Manchester Mayor was this belief that the state and private sector share accountability for public outcomes. He’s very big on using strategic corporate partnerships to drive social good.

That Redcar scheme looks great and hopefully once regional leaders have more power over education and training in their areas, we’ll see more of that kind of thing.

He's all style and no substance. 🙄

It's expensive to hire people after RR loaded NI costs onto employers, so they aren't hiring as many. If the NMW is the same for skilled and unskilled people per hour, then the experienced people get the jobs.

The UK has almost the highest energy costs in the world, thanks to the stupid pricing structure built to force consumers to fund Net Zero, so manufacturing is going to locations where energy is cheaper.

These two factors are suppressing growth.

Those factors might be part of the problem, for sure. But that’s a massive over simplification.

There’s loads of research showing “starter jobs” were disappearing before Rachel Reeves became Chancellor. And a massive portion of the NEET population is "economically inactive" - which means not actively looking for work, rather than unemployed. That’s a youth health/ mental health/ cultural issue - and changes to employer’s taxes won’t fix it. Plus, there’s the issue with the number of NEET graduates, which again is less about employer costs and more about our education/ qualification system. So, there are loads of big complex issues at play.

That’s why I really sincerely hope Andy Burnham is serious when he talks about “problem solving not point scoring” because we need a much more rigorous, less simplistic, point-scorey style of debate from our politicians and some serious cross party working if we’re going to actually progress as a country.

Look at the timeline. The first budget kick started a decline. This is hospitality

Timeline of the Decline

• October 2024 (The Turning Point): Following the UK Autumn Budget, which announced massive increases to employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and minimum wage hikes, businesses immediately began freezing recruitment. about:blank 1, 2]
• Early 2025: Vacancies in accommodation and food services fell sharply. Between January and March 2025, open roles dropped by 21.5% compared to the previous year. about:blank 1]
• Summer 2025 (The "Summer Job" Crash): In July 2025, the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) reported that temporary summer hospitality job postings plummeted by 25% year-on-year. about:blank 1, 2]
• Winter 2025 (The Festive Freeze): In December 2025—a time when pubs and restaurants traditionally staff up for Christmas—the sector bucked trends and cut nearly 9,000 jobs in a single month. about:blank 1, 2]
• Mid-2026 (Current Status): Job vacancies hit a multi-year low of 71,000 (down from a post-pandemic peak of 177,000). UKHospitality tracking shows that 170,000 jobs vanished in the 13 months following the initial 2024 budget changes

I promise you, I have a read a lot of research on this (and I don’t just mean a Google AI search).

The NEET crisis is about much, much more than one N.I hike.

If you’re genuinely interested, you could read more here:

This is IFS report: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/why-has-neet-rate-risen-understanding-trends-and-drivers-using-administrative-data.
The report explicitly says, “the decline in employment among older youths began at the end of 2022 – two years before the NICs reform was announced – so it is unlikely to be the primary cause.” I am not in any way denying they may be exacerbating the problem, though.

In terms of other perspectives on the causes, this is from the Education Policy Institute - and is (I think) really interesting: https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/five-charts-that-explain-the-rise-in-neet-rates/

And this is the research from the King’s Trust: https://www.kingstrust.org.uk/about-us/news-views/why-has-the-neet-rate-risen

Honestly, I wish it was so simple a problem
as to be explained away by one tax change.

I do believe it’ll take problem solving not point scoring to fix it, and I very, very much hope politicians (from whatever political party, I don’t care) can work constructively to fix it.

NI policies have impacted the jobs. There’s no getting around that.

Labour have added to a problem which is woeful.

As for fixing it it’s probably somewhat distinct issues. Tax, jobs and SMEs plus youth trends.

In that case, I don’t think we disagree @EasternStandard

I’m not saying that the increased N.I.C contributions haven’t impacted jobs. I’m saying that the evidence - including in the IFS report I’ve linked to above - shows that increased N.I contributions did not cause the NEET crisis and therefore simply reversing that decision won’t solve it either. I totally agree with you, it will take a multi-faceted approach to solve the problem.

This isn’t a thread about Labour - it’s a thread about Andy Burnham and my hope is that he means it when he talks about problem solving not point scoring, so that we can get to the root causes of the problem, rather than just playing a petty blame game. I’m also optimistic his belief in public sector/ private sector strategic partnership for public good (like the Sainsburys thing) is a good approach to this issue.

I prefer Burnham to Starmer so at least that’s something. And yes maybe he’ll bring some stuff forward for NEETs.

I do think it’s not out of the woods though for dc impacted by NI. It ups the chances of more slipping out of the job market, suffering MH related decline and thus adding to the group who feel let down.

I don’t disagree - and it’ll be interesting to see what happens with N.I contributions in the budget, I wouldn’t be surprised if he does cut them for under twenty fives. But we’ll see…

Argh. I’ve just watched something where someone was ranting about AB being a Socialist. Thought is he?!!! Looked it up and he does refer to himself as being a Socialist!! What the hell? My understanding of socialism is it’s one step away from communism and communism is not where we want to be heading.

It’s really not surprising that Andy Burnham
refers to himself as a socialist, he’s the leader of the Labour Party, and the Labour Party is a democratic socialist party: it’s literally printed on their membership cards.

You don’t need to worry about it being “one step away from communism though”. The word socialism means different things in different contexts. When a British Labour politician calls themselves a socialist, they don’t mean they’re planning to overthrow capitalism or abolish private property.

Andy Burnham is well within the mainstream, centre-left European tradition.