He Has No Deal, He Has No Dice - Trump Thread #162

[Spandauer]

Old enough to remember whole years in which I barely thought about the American president.

Previous thread:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/chat/5513875-depraved-desperate-deluded-and-dangerous-trump-thread-160

eta: in my haste I think I've numbered the thread incorrectly! Oh well.

US Central Command (Centcom) later said the blockade of traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports will begin at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT) on Monday.
It will be enforced "impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas," Centcom said in a post on social media.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn781z4lgg4o

Will try to focus on Hungary's good news today and not on what further verbal diarrhoea the 🍊💩 will regurgitate it wakes up.

I confess that I'm not fully up to speed on whose waters are whose and just where the US ships think they are going to lurk. But (stupid question from me) can't other (none Iranian) ships blockade 'innocently' get in the way of the US ships?

The world is on Iran's side?..I think a lot of folks have the view they are as bad as each other ATM.

It's easy to sit here behind a keyboard/in front of a screen and think the Iranian's wouldn't shoot..bet you'd have a slightly different POV if you were a sailor sat on several thousand +++ tonnes of crude being asked to sail down the Gulf and through the Straits right now.

Yup. His TRUTH was all ships. But what it is in practice appears to be sanctions enforcement.

I am rusty on UNCLOS but first 12 miles (nautical) is territorial. It's a sovereign part of the state. The next 12 miles, the contiguous zone is all territorial, but not fully part of the state as overflight is allowed. Next 200 miles is the EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone), where only some rights can be controlled. Oil and fish etc, but they can't control shipping. And the EEZ is settled by neighbour states. Usually the median between baselines of states opposite each other. Baseline being the low water mark on the states land ( but that can be complicated).

This is not directed at your good self of course. For general reading.

So any "blockade" or interdictions will have to be in the EEZ or beyond. Non EEZ sea is the High seas. Act of war to seize a ship in territorial waters. so I reckon the "blockade" will be in the Arabian sea. Probably in the High seas if there is any.

Legally... hmmm. If it is UN sanctioned, then ok. If it is Unilaterally sanctioned by the US, then very grey. There are rules where a vessel can be seized in the high seas, usually for international criminal acts, such as drug smuggling.

Remember the UK has helped the US seize a Russian tanker in the Atlantic. I think it is still held in the Cromarty firth. The crew were sent home. So if sanctioned ok, but I don't think it is 100% black and white.

The US can't just grab the oil though. That would have to be impounded with the ship.

There will be loads of legal papers discussing if the UK seizing the Russian tanker was legal. Must have been "cos Starmer"

I think though, if an Indian Tanker stayed within the 24 miles of Iran, then Pakistan, and into India, the US can't touch it. Not without permission from Pakistan

Not definitive... chewing the cud :-) Need to look up the Russian tanker seizure. I suspect that was on a technicality.

What has the tangoed bottle blond one done now eh? I avoid news with him on nowadays. Unless I have to watch it.

I saw the Strait of Hormuz (sp?) news and Trumps rant on Easter Monday. He’s such a good Christian isn’t he?!

Trump's insistence that NATO will be supporting him is more doublespeak.

The worst idea is that he could 'amend' the Constitution to give himself a third term, not so much an inauguration but a coronation, his ghastly ballroom could become his throne room! Even with the disasters he has caused there are still millions of Americans who think he's doing a great job for America, those who wear the baseball cap and probably couldn't find Washington DC on a map!

I can’t imagine NATO will be falling over to help him seize their own ships tbh. Especially since they are now having to pay a toll and this entire thing was his fault.

He posted this last night

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mjdtuertmk2i

That Pope Leo rant in full.

Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy. He talks about “fear” of the Trump Administration, but doesn’t mention the FEAR that the Catholic Church, and all other Christian Organizations, had during COVID when they were arresting priests, ministers, and everybody else, for holding Church Services, even when going outside, and being ten and even twenty feet apart. I like his brother Louis much better than I like him, because Louis is all MAGA. He gets it, and Leo doesn’t! I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon. I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s terrible that America attacked Venezuela, a Country that was sending massive amounts of Drugs into the United States and, even worse, emptying their prisons, including murderers, drug dealers, and killers, into our Country. And I don’t want a Pope who criticizes the President of the United States because I’m doing exactly what I was elected, IN A LANDSLIDE, to do, setting Record Low Numbers in Crime, and creating the Greatest Stock Market in History. Leo should be thankful because, as everyone knows, he was a shocking surprise. He wasn’t on any list to be Pope, and was only put there by the Church because he was an American, and they thought that would be the best way to deal with President Donald J. Trump. If I wasn’t in the White House, Leo wouldn’t be in the Vatican. Unfortunately, Leo’s Weak on Crime, Weak on Nuclear Weapons, does not sit well with me, nor does the fact that he meets with Obama Sympathizers like David Axelrod, a LOSER from the Left, who is one of those who wanted churchgoers and clerics to be arrested. Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician. It’s hurting him very badly and, more importantly, it’s hurting the Catholic Church! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Leo has really got under his skin.

Has he said anything about his pal Viktor? Or is he concentrating all his energy on Pope Leo right now?

No he’s been silent on that.

I think he massively misunderstood what Rutte discussed with him - Rutte may have agreed the strait needs opening - probably mentioned that wouldn’t be for nato to strongarm and pirate but trump had stopped listening then.

On the other hand just maybe more blatant lies - I wonder if he knows he’s always lying and exaggerating and it’s his ‘art of the deal’ or if he believes himself.

Personally, I wouldn’t let someone who bankrupt casinos near a ‘deal’ but we are way beyond why that ever happened.

Wonder if the orange one will look at the Hungarian election and possibly realise that his borderline dictatorship style democracy isn’t actually what the public want. Problem is in the US , no one seems able to stand upto him, he’s made a complete mess in Iran, but because the Iranians refused to capitulate, he now decides to inflict further pain on the rest of the world by doing what he’s accused Iran of doing and preventing the free movement of shipping

Gosh - I’d also not realised Pope Leo was elected in the hopes he’d help Trump!

Why doesn’t the orange one just leave the Pope be - he’s not a Catholic so he doesn’t actually have a Pope himself - he’s also actually said he doesn’t think he’ll be going to heaven so really the church is irrelevant to him. I also don’t think the Vatican has oil flowing through the church and crypt.

I know the US is big on religion and MAGA on some weird form of what they still call Christianity, but it’s odd he takes him on to me - especially when he’s struggling with Iran.

Though actually I’m here, as they say, for all these type of crazy ‘truths’ and the Pope’s views - better than the civilisation ones - though actually why didn’t he revert to that one when his deal failed? Instead of just refocusing on simply the Strait?

Don’t know why I continue to ponder the imponderable.

I don’t

Maybe he’ll try and sack Vance - maybe this will be why we need King Donald inaugurated in 2029 as everyone else is so rubbish.

<childish snigger>

I am not having much luck finding out about the UN sanctions against Iran. and if it includes oil. My web has had a glitch in the matrix. So it appears to be a bit less "webby" today.

Defo UN sanctions on nuke stuff. Oil...hmm .. ironically tied to the JCPOA it appears.

I think the UN sanctions on the oil were lifted under the JCPOA. And there is a "snapback" clause in that that allows signatories to reimpose sanctions for noncompliance to the JCPOA. UK and EU enacted that snapback last year I think, US 2018 under Trump, but that only affects them. So they can stop their own buyers from buying it ? Not sure.

Ahh, here we go. I won't post links cos not good sites. It looks like the oil itself was not sanctioned, but the shipping / financial etc was.

So the actual oil was never UN sanctioned. They can sell it, and legal to buy it, but the shipping/finance etc is controlled. Iran can't tanker it out, but it is unclear to me if other nations can.

I might have to sit this out. I am getting hardly any web results, and those I do get have a very firm "angle". But maybe some starting points above.

Usual disclaimer re Iran. My worry is that Trump is holding the world to ransom here, especially Asia.

I want a slow thread <gavel>

thanks for the new thread

Not to veer off topic, but I did enjoy seeing that Matt Goodwin was scheduled to speak at MCC, Orban's little pet institution, today. Wonder if he'll still make it.

Jesus Christ !

He made the Popes election about HIM.

And covid FFS.

https://bsky.app/profile/joncooper-us.bsky.social/post/3mjdqp6qmnc2x

Is that Epstein he's trying to bring back from the dead??

Brilliant! Gave me a good laugh.