He Has No Deal, He Has No Dice - Trump Thread #162

[Spandauer]

Old enough to remember whole years in which I barely thought about the American president.

Previous thread:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/chat/5513875-depraved-desperate-deluded-and-dangerous-trump-thread-160

eta: in my haste I think I've numbered the thread incorrectly! Oh well.

He's doubling down. No surprise because that's his special usp that everyone expects.

He can no longer bomb boats committing piracy, his will be doing the same.

DOW is down, Oil priced up

It looks like he has backed down. He did say ALL ships. Now it's just ships to Iran.

Finding positives in current world events is like finding an oasis in a desert.

In light of the Orban defeat, this article was hydrating:
Political Anthrax: The Trump Endorsement Graveyard

Thanks for new thread Spandauer.

He is having a go at the Pope now. As expected,. Per CNN

"Trump says Pope Leo is “terrible for foreign policy”
By Laura Sharman
US President Donald Trump strongly criticized Pope Leo XIV on Truth Social on Sunday evening, claiming he is “weak on crime” and “terrible for foreign policy.”
Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope, has become increasingly vocal about the US and Israel’s war with Iran, last week condemning Trump’s rhetoric and threats against the people of Iran as “truly unacceptable.”
On Sunday evening, Trump posted a lengthy critique of the pope on Truth Social.
“Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy,” Trump wrote.
“I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s okay for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s terrible that America attacked Venezuela, a country that was sending massive amounts of drugs into the United States and, even worse, emptying their prisons, including murderers, drug dealers, and killers, into our Country.”
“And I don’t want a Pope who criticizes the President of the United States.”"

And there is that binary thing. To not support Trump means one supports Iran. So that's one for @SerendipityJane I think. What is the standard disclaimer in Latin :-)

Now we will have MAGA calling for the Pope to be stripped of US citizenship. And Vance might go AWOL for a while. I can imagine the words " JD, sort your Pope out. Get him primaried, find me a better Pope. Sort it or I will do an executive order ", will have been said.

"Someone get me Bill Donohue on the phone. I will make him Pope"

“We’ve received no requests,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told CNN affiliate 9 News. “They’ve made this announcement overnight and they’ve done that in a unilateral way.”

It's the usual Turdish way. Announce it, but he has not asked anyone.

Is that fella in Greenland still sitting dockside, feet dangling over the side, waiting for his hospital ship ?

I hadn’t realised the Pope’s role included supporting US foreign policy lol. How deluded is the orange guy - ‘I don’t want a Pope who …’ - is he the next one to be kidnapped from his country/role? Mind boggling - again.

I’m going to, again, ask stupid questions here.

The US are blockading the Srait and interdicting ships that have paid tolls - from today I understand.

It’s the legality of this that I’m wondering at the minute - excellent learning from posters on the logistics (or otherwise!) of it - thank you.

So, is part of the Strait Iranian territory- 12 mile thing? If so can Iran say no to ships, or deal with them under normal (not this) circumstances legitimately? Or is the Strait considered a free place so international waters?

Either way actually- can anyone legitimately block ships entering or leaving either another country’s waters/international waters? I obviously assume not - but is it acceptable in times of war? If so is this an active war?

I know we can’t send the Royal Navy to escort boats ‘back to France’ (thank god) and even more thankful no one thought of blocking them in the middle of the channel! I think this is tied up in various maritime/territorial laws but maybe others too - I know little to nothing about this, as is clear!

In fact the only time I have heard of ships minding their own business and following their own routes and orders then being stopped is usually called piracy. What rights are there to do this? And are there more rights in war? And if not is it (yet another) war crime?

Trump is blockading a blockade. He's a blockhead.

That's a great article!

I saw TOFU today. Trump only fucks up.

The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports

Interesting..

I may not have been paying full attention but that's not quite the impression I got from initial comments or a lot of what was being said late yesterday....

https://iandunt.substack.com/p/the-battle-against-trump-is-a-battle-f75

Ah, so not quite the line of US boats across the strait saying ‘nobody shall pass’ that he would have you believe, shocker.

Exactly..

Though even with a blockade on the Iranian side it would still be risky squeezing traffic down the, for want of a better term, friendly side..

This article from BBC Verify has maps of shipping lanes. Since the not-war with Iran, the limited shipping allowed has transited the strait closer to the Iranian side.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3w39lg84w2o

eta
As the Gulf of Oman has been mentioned, where on earth will US ships be stationed? Please don't tell me that NATO is going to have ships supporting Trump to extend the line of blockade further out ... so less chance of being in Iran's range.

I must admit to needing to take a break from any speculation, as I can only see things getting worse for everyone.

Arabian sea I suspect.

My understanding is that normally a country’s territorial waters are accepted as extending about 12 miles from its coastline, unless otherwise agreed. The issue is the SoH is so narrow, and parts of it too shallow for a large ship to navigate, that a large chunk of the passable part is in Iranian waters so it’s entirely up to them who can use it or not.

Happy to be corrected on that if I’m wrong!

I've been having a look at ships currently in Iranian water and amongst the lot are Chinese, Pakistani and French ships that will have to exit via SoH. So wondering at ship speeds and whether they will be trapped when Trump's blockade kicks in. Or has he timed it that all ships have time to exit before the deadline?

A couple of days ago on radio 4 there was a reporter suggesting Iran now has precedence for tolling the strait as a way to ensure safe passage (at that point there weren't US ships threatening to stop ships passing), so I expect a greater need for this now. As the reporter said "it is hard to see how or why Iran would roll back on this [charging tolls for protection] now, the idea is firmly planted for the need".

Trump has said he will start blockades after the weekend according to the BBC this morning.

As an aside. Trump mentioned interdicting ships. Under which laws and in which court? Is it that he doesn't understand what the word means, or that he is THE LAW now?

https://lawdefiner.com/interdict-meaning/

I think the bigger issue for any shipping is if they move will the Iranian's open fire on them from the north side of the Straits or Persian Gulf?

The US Navy blockading Iran ports or Iranian waters won't automatically stop that.

It is unlikely Iran would do that with the world on their side. The threat to the shipping route is from US. They are the ones the world will be paying for protection from.

As Iran has been letting certain ships through, my thinking is that they are therefore unlikely to start shooting at Chinese/French/Pakistani ones now.