Bored of Peace? Let's Mambo! - Trump Thread #158

[Spandauer]

Cuba - the appetiser to Greenland?

Previous thread:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5501326-war-huh-good-god-what-is-it-good-for-absolutely-nothing-trump-thread-157

The Valais Blacknose are my favourite sheep. £10k for one, last I checked.🐏

"Mail-in voting means mail-in cheating. I call it mail-in cheating, and we got to do something about it all," Trump said on Monday.

A day earlier, his own mail-in ballot for an upcoming election was received in Palm Beach county.

https://bsky.app/profile/ottoenglish.bsky.social/post/3mhs5vy756s2q

Now for a bit of war news from the Kuwaiti angle.

https://timeskuwait.com/kuwaiti-armed-forces-intercepted-dealt-with-255-ballistic-missiles-549-drones/

Figures won't have included last night's barrage. My contact said it hadn't been that heavy in days.

Starmer in today's security meeting was questioned aggressively on UK inability to be on a war footing cf Thatcher's Britain. Answer, we have to put in place the finances for this first and the plan will soon be going to Parliament for approval.

Hmmm. A timescale would be helpful.

Whatever the timescale, it is years too late. Jenkins who did the questioning was part of the reason for that

I am actually finally fully impressed by Labour/Starmer:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czjw7klkjm2o

Isn't it funny how the orange muppet is forcing the world to go green because he is making the old systems so unreliable through power grabs?

Mooch adamant in today’s TRIP US that all of the back and forth is Trump allowing his mates, and himself, to play the markets.

I can't open it but interesting numbers, because this was just on the Sky feed:

"Iran has 1,000 missiles left, Israeli thinktank claims
Iran started the war with around 2,500 ballistic missiles that could be fired either from the back of trucks or from underground silos, according to an Israeli thinktank.
The Alma Research Centre estimates in a new report that Iran now has around 1,000 missiles.
At the end of the 12-day war in June last year, Alma reported that Iran was left with around 1,500 missiles.
In the eight months that followed, it was able to manufacture a further 1,000, which suggests Tehran could move to quickly replenish stocks."

I have also seen a statistic that Iranian missiles have a failure rate of about 40%. Estimated from very limited data.

I think drones can be taken as practically unlimited given Russia make the Iranian designs too and can freely ship them in.

So the missiles V interceptor numbers might be quite close now ?

It's the drones that are the issue though as we know from the Russia/Ukrainian war. Missiles are easy to stop and cheap to stop, drones take a lot more money time, effort and tech to stop than to make. Obviously low long ranging missiles reduces the threat to UK (which was unlikely anyway) but I don't think the US had paid attention to drones being used in Ukraine as they don't seem to have designed much to combat them and are relying on Ukraine's defensive action.

If it was just drones, it wouldn't be so bad.

The problem is drones are now so autonomous, they can go long distances at high speeds and low altitudes.

Look out of your window and ask if you could see someone between 1 and 2 metres around, 500 metres in the air above you travelling at about 160 km/h

Now think if you could spot 20 or 30 in a random formation, possibly not all going in the same direction. And about 30-60 seconds from their target.

Now multiply that up by an order of magnitude.

Every day.

There is a reason that "drone technology" was a line in my strategy planning of 2011 (the same year that saw BTC and my investigating MN). Because it was so clearly a game changer. By 2015 we were using them to survey insurance claims and underwriting queries where people "forgot" how close they were to various premium hiking features.

Now if you are a US military specialist whose backhanders were coming from Lockheed or their elk, and you downplayed drones as not being sufficiently covered in bungs, then you my friend, are a paradigm of why the more corrupt a country gets, the less efficient it's military becomes. Which should really be a sine non qua. But that level of common sense seems to have disappeared with teaching Latin in schools.

Re drones. It is noticeable that while Iran, Russia and Ukraine are fielding them in numbers, for the battlefield and medium range attack, the USA is not. The USA is using $100 million planes and all the needed support, and $30 million reaper drone firing $150k hellfire missiles.

I don't think it's just a cost thing. It's volume, speed, flexibility, mobility, concealment, training, easy production , factory size, supply chain, material availability, storage, off the shelf components, massively reduced certification, reduced R&D....... did I miss anything ?

In fact ,thinking about it, with that not extensive list and the size of the US Military Industrial Complex, it's no wonder the US don't field them. If they did their defence budget could be slashed at the stroke of a pen.

“Here is what Trump expected when he started bombing Iran: its regime would collapse or surrender within 72 hours.

“That was Plan A.

“Plan B did not exist, which means Trump is scrambling to get back to what existed before Plan A.”

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/c3bccf94-5995-4e6a-a87d-3f360c65c090

No, no; it's only five thousand dollars for a lamb.

Or there are two adult ewes for sale on Preloved from somewhere near Preston at a mere £1,700 for the pair, and there are lots of others at Preloved for less than £5,000. You might have a woolly lawnmower yet.

As hinted at, when your industrial military complex relies on flogging planes and missiles then you won't be allowed to know that the future is drones.

Never underestimate the power of the paycheck in making people believe in unicorns.

I suspect that as a theocracy, rather than nakedly capitalist hegemomy, Iran is less beset by sharp suits and technobabble than the US or UKs civil service. Existential threats can have that effect.

Preston isn't that far north from me, it's just a bit further than Haydock and I've been there loads of times...would they be ok to live in a shed and eat lawns..? 🐑

No idea, but you could ask!

I am not sure they actually need a shed, because you see sheep outside in all weathers, don't you. And this is an alpine breed, so they are probably quite hardy.

Actually, I think it's, could, but won't.

Listening to World at One today and their speculation about peace talks - who, where, when and how - it struck me that it must be a nightmare scenario for Iran if they do want to talk.

The US entered the last set of talks in very bad faith, setting up leadership for assignation by Israel, who had their location.

We have all watched enough spy thrillers to know that "they" can track, identify and kill when they get access to people and or tech.

Surely the Israelis would use any talks for the purposes of intel and finding the decision makers? I don't see Kushner or Witkoff saying no...

Israelis have a good track record of killing the leaders of various organizations and terror groups when they can find them.

Israelis have a good track record of killing the leaders of various organizations and terror groups when they can find them.

Bad luck if you have a common name then.

Please don't tempt me @AskingQuestionsAllTheTime . At the time I suggested getting a small flock, to my farmer neighbour, he told me to 'get a life'!
Those sheep are total cuteness.

Hells bells, I did not even think of that.

My own is one of the most common - I would be in a spot of bother...

If there are no consequences for killing the wrong Johns Smith. Or Mohammed Ali, then why waste precious bullet money on checking ?

I wouldn't.

Pakistan are offering to do it. And I think that makes sense because they have the border with Iran which has a separatist movement, Balochistan. But that might be a conflict of interest ? No idea on that TBH.

But Pakistan are close to China, with China ahead in the US/China/Russia influence stakes. So I would imagine Iran will trust them more ?

Also both have human rights issues and all that. Pakistan has nukes, so they might offer Iran some ? Or tell them they are not worth the bother ? They might offer them some secret Uranium to persuade then to be good ?

Sorry, just muttering aloud.

I agree with you. Who will trust the USA if they do a Glencoe variation on you.

In fact, I was wondering that about Trump's Beijing Trip. After the Maduro and Ayatollah things, is he now scared he will be kidnapped or killed ? I have a sneaky suspicion Trump will not leave the USA now.

I made a new friend at the gym today. She's Iranian, so I plan to invite her for a coffee to pump her to hear what expat Iranians think of the war. She did say that she didn't like the religious leaders' tight control over Iranians and that the hardships caused by the war are being felt mostly in cities. Her family were ok so far, as they don't live in a big city.

Which brings me to another issue, as how this war ends will be very important especially after the news that 'Gulf Allies' could be joining the war. #mission_creep

Will it result in a tightening of Iranian cultural identity - Us against everyone else (a bit like Qatar in the ME before the war)? Will it create an even more controlling gov't? Has it created a new generation of fighters bent on revenge against both US and Israel? Increased desire to not accede any control over SoH?

What is likely to happen in the ME itself if the war continues?

I suspect Pakistans offer is to show that the US have fuck all intention of coming to any settlement that isn't what Trump wants.

After all, if they did, why walk away from the talks with Iran in the first place.

There is inevitably going to be a book somewhere on what excuses the US will make for declining the Pakistani offer. And I am going to put $1 on them not even trying to hide the truth and admitting they have no intention of coming to any settlement that isn't what Trump wants.