US strikes Iran

[mjf981]

In conjunction with Israel.
Why? Starting wars has never ever ended well for the US, or for the country they are trying to 'help.'

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn5ge95q6y7t

Persians are indeed a proud people, and that equally applies to those in opposition to the widely despised regime.

Israel and the U.S will certainly both be aware of the contingency plans made by the Mullahs, and the identity of the individuals positioned to take control. That’s the purpose of intelligence. I also do not believe they weren’t fully aware that this wouldn’t be a quick ‘in and out’, considering the revolutionary guards gave no indication that they were not in lock step with the regime. No revolution can succeed without the support of the military, and the protestors did not have that. Hence the appeals to Israel and the U.S.

As viciously as they respond, the regime is outgunned and outmanned. I suspect they have also been proverbially sold out by their allies, who they may already have found disinclined to offer the support you think they will. There’s a lot that’s been going on behind closed doors.

Yes but they do have a supernatural deity on their side.

Well we will see soon enough,

I wonder how Iran managed to knock Starlink completely out in January promptly ending the riots. What technology did China transfer to them? Alaistair Crooke and others have spoken about the support that Iran has been getting from it allies.

This is geopolitical chess, support isn't always overt 😉. Trump is indirectly attacking China and Russia (Syria, Venezuela, Iran), perhaps the dominant strategy would be to aid Iran in an attrition war with America.

Also regarding the protests and American support, be mindful of Kissingers famous quote

"America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests"

Even the Shah was originally denied entry to America in 1979 only being allowed in months later for cancer treatment. When a person/cause is no longer useful, America has no issue changing course.

As usual, you follow the worst fucking people on twitter.

I am not so sure that Iran is outmanned and outgunned at all.
I actually think there is no way it is outmanned and for outgunned..... they do seem to have a pretty good stock.
What they do seem to lack off is antiaerial posts.

I think some of this is just seeing what algorithms people rely on. It gets repeated on here.

Lol😄😁😅😉 at John Mearsheimer et al being uninformed,
My algorithms are good despite Musk trying to aid Netanyahu on his 8th front information warfare (and failing miserably).

I chose to prioritise the voices of people who live in the region including prominent journalists and augment this with Diplomats, Military, Intelligence and University lecturers from the top universities in the World.

And shills for the regime.

Stirabout good article here from Israeli Paper YNET:

https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/hylyslbfzx
Summary:
• The US planned for a 4-5 day operation that would weaken the Iranian negotiating position, allowing a deal more favorable to the US.
• Yesterday, the US reached out to Tehran through Italian mediators requesting a ceasefire.
• The Iranians rejected this.

Oil is up 10% to $80 dollars a barrel and could potentially rise to $100
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-jumps-10-iran-conflict-could-spike-100-barrel-analysts-say-2026-03-01/?taid=69a447916a41fe0001bdc43f&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Chinese Company MizarVision openly publishing positions of US assets in the region:
https://aviationweek.com/defense/budget-policy-operations/us-military-buildup-iran-tracked-chinese-space-company

Image of Ali Al Salem Air Base yesterday:
https://soaratlas.com/maps/asia-kuwait-satellite-image-of-smoke-at-ali-al-salem-air-base-140727?pos=29.324446707378392%2C47.492579237660344%2C13.88

They absolutely are. They aren’t even in the same ballpark.

When it comes to conventional warfare, Iran is overwhelmingly outmatched. They know it, which is why they have certainly made contingency plans to endure. The USA and Israel know this too, because you can be also be certain that they have their own networks within Iran. There’s a reason why Trump appealed directly to the revolutionary guard and offered immunity. They’re looking to exploit the fractures that already existed within the regime.

What will matter going forward is supporting Iran emerging from this, and having a powerful neighbor as an ally is hugely beneficial to this end, and creating stability. Which is also why there has been such emphasis on the end result ultimately being in the hands of the Iranian people. It is.

The US and Israel cannot impose democracy onto them, but by crippling the infrastructure the regime relies on to keep control, they can create the conditions for Iranians to do it themselves, and support them in the establishment of it.

“This is geopolitical chess, support isn't always overt 😉. “

No shit lol. The US and Israel will have been having their own conversations , and negotiations, with China, Russia et al.

Yes I’d be surprised too, Iran’s capability is likely to bd eroded in a few days.

I am not so sure of that. Because I do not think either Trump or Israel have any type of plan.
Time will tell us.
It is one in a lifetime for the Iranians to chance their government. That is for sure.

Thanks

I question whether the US offered a ceasefireTrump said yesterday he would continue bombing for at least a week and until they'd reached their goal.

The US and Israel have cited an imminent threat of Iran developing a nuclear weapon to explain the urgency of this attack.
That's despite Trump's claim back in June that the bunker-busting bombs the US had dropped had set back any Iranian nuclear weapons program by years — saying its key nuclear enrichment facilities had been "completely and totally obliterated".
So If we believed Trump then, what’s he worried about in terms of nuclear capabilities.

The idea they may have been looking to weaken Iran so they agreed to a deal is also suspect.

Negotiations had been going well with further detailed planning planned for this week.

Netanyahu wants a change to the regime
and Trump wants the glory and a diversion from the Epstein files.

Noticed in the news yesterday 150 tankers stuck at the Straits of Hormuz
One was hit by an Iranian drone earlier.

When the prices go up and the US feels the sting perhaps Trump will back down, especially if more countries jump to Russian oil alongside India. Trump is not in this war for the people of Iran. He is only interested in his own popularity and perhaps that peace prize 😆

Thanks for the aviation weekly piece. There’s no hiding is there. Not these days

Lots of articles speaking of
only boots on the ground can bring a Regime change
In this case boots on the ground will need to be Iranians hence both Netanyahu and Trump calling for Iranians to come to the cause
Or will the USmilitary and the IDF have to step in , quite literally

Yes the regime has been horrendous not just for women's rights but for all rights. But don't think that every woman and every man shares our views on homosexuality and women's rights.....far from it. I have witnessed more than one public hanging to goading crowds.... having seen that you soon realise it's a very different world to ours.

There are parallel worlds in Iran and while I won't mourn the loss of a dictator I don't want more destructive wars.

We have a job to finish in the Ukraine, this is not what we need

They have no plan other than hoping Iranians take charge. But that's shows a lack of understanding of Iranian leadership. Already clerics will be choosing a new ayotolla. The IRCG is loyal but also nationalistic so unless they can bribe a official at senior level, and looking at the response, highly unlikely a new cleric Will be voted in. Given the choices it looks like the next is a extreme hardliner.

Of course there was and is a plan. Israel and the US didn’t coincidentally happen to strike at exactly the same time, and they didn’t just take a wild guess as to where the senior government officials were This has been a long time in the organizing and coordinating. Militarily, Iran cannot hold up against Israel and the USA.

Trump and Netanyahu are the figureheads that need to sign off any action, and be the public faces of it, but there is massive amounts of infrastructure behind both responsible for actual operations.

What is telling is the fact that Iran was blindsided. That the U.S and Israel were able to take out not just Khamenei but other senior figures so quickly rather suggests serious issues with Iran’s own intelligence network, as well as with the alliances they trusted to supply them.

Time will tell.

You master a trust in Netanyahu and Trump that I will never have! That is for sure!

In January the IRCG were publicly warned against insubordination, desertion, and disobedience. This was an unusual step for the regime to take.

I think it very possible that the IRCG have become increasingly fractured, and those inclined to break may take the opportunity now to do so.

personally i trust the intelligence services more as they are the ones who advise the leaders etc

It’s nothing to do with having trust.

how so ?

The months of planning behind US-Israeli mission to target Iran's supreme leader

The attack that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came not in the middle of the night, as might have been expected, but in the middle of the morning.

That was because the US and Israel decided to take advantage of a piece of crucial intelligence that had arrived hours before.

For months, they had been watching for a moment of opportunity when senior Iranian figures might be meeting and they learnt Khamenei was going to be at a compound in central Tehran on Saturday morning.

They also had a fix on the location of other senior military and intelligence figures meeting at the same time.

For months the US and Israel had been tracking the supreme leader's movements. The exact methods they used are secret although US President Donald Trump in a social media post did hint at them.

"He was unable to avoid our intelligence and highly sophisticated tracking systems."

This could have been a human source reporting back but it may be more likely to be technical tracking of Iranian individuals.

n this case the intelligence, the New York Times says, external, came from the CIA but was passed on to Israel to carry out the actual strike.

The signs are that there is a division of labour with Israel focusing on strikes to hit leadership targets and the US more on military targets.

Crucially the intelligence provided enough forward notice of the supreme leader's movements and those of other officials to be able to plan an attack using jets which could fire long-range missiles.

Rather than a single decapitation strike, the plan was for this attack to signal the launch of a wider campaign and it was moved forward to take advantage of the window of opportunity.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c86y5540vnno

Thanks again dwordle
you posted ( all but the last para ) this post this morning which I responded to

Part Article here stating what many have been citing

abc.net.au

‘The Iranian regime is not the supreme leader and his government — it's the entire system.
The idea that there is a government-in-waiting in Iran is fanciful to say the least.
Iranians also have a right to be sceptical about the US president's promises.
During the most recent uprisings across the country, Trump urged protesters to keep going.
"Iranian patriots, ‍keep protesting, take over your institutions … Help is on its way," he said.
That help never materialised and the uprising ended with another brutal crackdown.
So how does this end?
It's impossible, of course, to say. It may depend on what Trump's real endgame is — and that can change very quickly.
It's hard to see Trump seeing this through to regime change, as remote as that possibility is.

One of his favoured tactics is to declare a deal has been done, call it a win and move on.
In this case, that could mean a new nuclear deal with Iran to replace the one he tore up in 2018 and promised to improve.
But could he get one? Twice now, the president has backed, or initiated, an attack on Iran in the midst of negotiations with Iranian officials.

Netanyahu and Trump have started a new war in the Middle East, both banking on America's overwhelming military might to guarantee the result.
Other presidents have done the same. It didn't end well.’

I don’t trust any President or country to act outside of its own self interest, or rather what that is perceived to be. What I am doing is utilizing basic understanding of geopolitics, and considering what the reasoning behind actions may be.

Iran being an enemy is not in the interests of either the U.S or Israel. It is in their interests to align with those within Iran that share common ground. It is in their interest to act most definitively at the most opportune time, when the regime is particularly vulnerable and dealing with public uprising. It is in the interests of both to handle this very differently to how Iran was handled in 1979 (and the geopolitical situation has changed significantly since then), and to emphasize, as they are doing, that it is for the Iranians themselves to take control of their country.

I do not know how this will turn out, and I’m not pretending that I do. It’s too early to know, and there are many moving pieces in play. I do however think the conditions are the most favorable they have been to effect regime change. I believe there is great potential for Iranians to rid themselves of the regime at this time, and I hope they do.

but the main core issue with any political debate the public has we only know whats in the papers, and what the officials say to the media or what books are written, how many times in history have events happen but then when the true history is understood years later events then were down to other factors than the offical story of the day