Ukraine Invasion: Part 60

[MagicFox]

We have got to thread 60. So many thanks as always to regular contributors and to those providing updates. For the 60th time, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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That poor father, the son, their whole family. I have a son that age. It hits particularly hard if I even tried to place myself in the father's shoes. So so sorry for this senseless war and frustrated that we could not do more sooner.

It's why I feel a bit strongly about war, given that neither of them was even in a war-zone officially at the time in either case. I can only imagine how the mothers in Ukraine must feel, but I do have an inkling, you see.

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime you have more than an inking. It is presumably that icy feeling when your blood runs cold. I hope mothers in the UK don't have to send their children off to a war zone. Glad your two are safe and grateful that they serve in the forces.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-3-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. Russia resumed its combined missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of February 2 to 3, following the brief moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes.
2. Russia’s overnight strike package contained an unusually high number of ballistic missiles, consistent with the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to stockpile missiles to maximize damage against civilian infrastructure.
3. The February 2 to 3 strike demonstrates that Russia never intended to use the energy strikes moratorium to de-escalate the war or seriously advance the US-initiated peace negotiations.
4. The short-term moratorium does not mark a significant Russian concession, however, as Russian forces continued to target Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure during the moratorium.
5. The Kremlin continues to explicitly reject the Western security guarantees for Ukraine that aim to prevent another Russian invasion.
6. The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its commitment to its original war demands for a peace settlement in Ukraine, particularly those that aim to destroy the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), ahead of the next round of the US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi.
7. The Kremlin continues to weaponize religion to demand restrictions on Ukraine’s sovereignty despite Russia’s own systematic religious repressions in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
8. The Kremlin continues efforts to distract attention from and secure concessions in the upcoming February 4-5 peace talks in Abu Dhabi, which will coincide with the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) on February 5.
9. The Kremlin continues to attempt to disguise and dismiss the economic impacts of its costly war in Ukraine, Western sanctions, and poor economic policy decisions.
10. India is reportedly planning to curb its imports of Russian oil, which would likely further strain the Russian budget and deficit and hinder Russia’s ability to fund its war effort without more economic consequences.
11. Russian forces are starting to use Gerbera drones as “motherships” to carry strike or reconnaissance drones deeper into the Ukrainian rear.
12. An unidentified drone recently crashed near a Polish military facility.
13. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.

Served. I have to thank the lord that they have both resigned their commissions because of their ages and are now civilians. That's why I have only an inkling, although I know that if we were invaded they would both be straight back into a uniform: it's likely not to happen. I hope.

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime all mothers will share your hope

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/02/04/eu-countries-seal-deal-on-90-billion-loan-for-ukraine-funded-through-joint-debt

Under the special loan, Ukraine will receive €30 billion to support its budgetary needs and €60 billion to purchase weapons and ammunition.

European Union countries have reached a deal to issue a €90 billion loan to meet Ukraine's financial and military needs for 2026 and 2027, with Brussels aiming to make the first payment in early April to spare Kyiv from a sudden drop-off in foreign aid.

In the U.S., commissioned officers who leave the service, whether through retirement or voluntary separation, can be recalled for life. They place you in different recall categories based on your age and how long you've been out.

It's very unlikely, but I could be recalled.

That remains the case in the UK (not just officers, it's all service personnel who are under 55, soon to change to 65).

The shit would have to properly hit the fan for that to be considered though, it would have to be a WWIII-type scenario.

Yes, that's why I hope very much that there won't be a war!

This would include ds2.

I agree that an extreme scenario would be required to trigger a recall. But, at least here, they can recall officers selectively if they need medics, helicopter pilots, or God help us, former intelligence specialists.

Many enlisted soldiers here voluntarily join the reserves after separating. The pay and benefits are very good.

Ah I can see the value of intelligence specialists as a repository of institutional memory.

Even if not for the fulltime (more than fulltime) slog.

There were quite a few ex-regulars at my reserve unit. Both officers and ratings.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️At least 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed (kyivindependent.com/at-least-55-000-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-in-russias-war-with-many-more-missing-zelensky-tells-french-media/) in Russia's war, with many more missing, Zelensky tells French media.
"Officially on the battlefield, the number of military personnel killed, whether career soldiers or people who were mobilized, is 55,000," Zelensky told France TV on Feb. 4.
It would also cost Russia "800,000 more corpses" to take eastern Ukraine by force, he said.

⚡️ Update: Ukraine peace talks with Russia, US end (kyivindependent.com/peace-talks-set-to-resume-in-abu-dhabi-day-after-largest-russian-strike-on-ukraine-this-winter/) in UAE as sides agree to meet again Feb. 5.

⚡️Update: Zelensky says new POW exchange (kyivindependent.com/peace-talks-set-to-resume-in-abu-dhabi-day-after-largest-russian-strike-on-ukraine-this-winter/) to follow latest round of peace talks.

EU agrees details on 90 billion euro lifeline to Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/eu-agrees-details-on-90-billion-euro-lifeline-to-ukraine/)
European ambassadors reached an agreement on the details of a 90 billion euro loan ($107 billion) for Ukraine, the European Council said in a press release on Feb. 4.

⚡️ Ukraine war latest live (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2026-02-04/): 7 dead, 8 injured as Russia strikes Donetsk Oblast city market with cluster munitions.

North Korean troops in Russia attack Ukrainian border communities, HUR says (kyivindependent.com/north-korean-troops-carry-out-attacks-on-ukraines-border-area-ukraines-military-intelligence-says/)
North Korean troops fighting under Russian command are carrying out attacks in Ukraine’s border areas, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) said on Feb. 4.
In a statement, HUR said that, as of January 2026, North Korean troops are stationed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, from where they launch attacks on Ukrainian border oblasts. Kursk borders Ukraine’s northern Sumy Oblast, which comes under daily Russian air attacks.

As Ukrainians freeze, donated energy equipment sits unused (kyivindependent.com/as-ukrainians-freeze-donated-energy-equipment-sits-unused/)
Critical energy generation equipment donated by Ukraine’s partners has been left idle and unconnected to the grid for years, as Russian attacks cripple the country’s energy system during its coldest winter in decades.
To survive, Ukraine says it needs $1 billion worth of energy support. Allies have replied by sending equipment en masse.
But local authorities have struggled to connect the numerous power and heating equipment to the grid, like gas turbines and mobile cogeneration plants already procured over the last two years, multiple people with knowledge of the equipment deliveries told the Kyiv Independent.

⚡️European LNG imports from key Russian terminal rise 8% (https://kyivindependent.com/european-lng-imports-from-key-russian-terminal-rise-8-year-over-year-imports-reached-nearly-1-7-tons-in-january-watchdog-finds/) year-over-year, reach nearly 1.7 million tons in January, watchdog finds.
Russia's flagship liquified natural gas (LNG) export terminal, Yamal LNG, exported a total of 1,690,517 metric tons of LNG to European markets last month, accounting for an 8% increase compared to January 2025, German environmental NGO Urgewald found in a report published Feb. 4.

⚡️'Targeted attack' — Tens of thousands without power in Zaporizhzhia (kyivindependent.com/targeted-attack-tens-of-thousands-without-power-in-zaporizhzhia-as-russia-hammers-regions-energy-system/) as Russia hammers region's energy system.

⚡️Ukraine appoints (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-appoints-oleh-luhovskyi-as-interim-head-of-foreign-intelligence-service/) Oleh Luhovskyi as interim head of Foreign Intelligence Service.
President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Major General Oleh Luhovskyi as acting head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service on Feb. 4.

Keith Kellogg on why Russia's setbacks in Ukraine don't stop Putin
(
The Kyiv Independent’s Tim Zadorozhnyy speaks with Keith Kellogg, former U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine, about why he believes Russia has failed to achieve its goals in Ukraine, how Russian President Vladimir Putin views his military campaign, and what is preventing the war from ending. Kellogg also shares his perspective on U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace efforts, reflects on his former role inside the administration, and revisits key events and decisions shaping those negotiations.

⚡️ $325 million (kyivindependent.com/mass-attack-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-cost-russia-almost-325-million-ukrainian-intelligence-says/) — that's how much it cost Russia to bomb Ukraine in latest missile, drone attack, HUR says.
These funds could have financed Russia's Jewish Autonomous Oblast for "an entire year," HUR said.

⚡️Kyiv bureau among those axed by Jeff Bezos (kyivindependent.com/jeff-bezos-washington-post-shuts-down-kyiv-bureau-fires-staff/)' Washington Post, hundreds of journalists laid off.
"I was just laid off by The Washington Post in the middle of a warzone. I have no words. I'm devastated," Ukraine correspondent Lizzie Johnson wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

⚡️Russia claims US 'ignored' offers to extend nuclear arms control (kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-us-ignored-offers-to-extend-nuclear-arms-control-agreement-as-treaty-set-to-expire/) agreement as key treaty set to expire.
The New START Treaty, signed by Russia and the U.S. in 2010 and set to expire on Feb. 5, 2026, places mutual limits on strategic nuclear warheads and launchers.
A White House official told the Kyiv Independent on Feb. 4 that President Trump would decide the way forward on nuclear arms control on "his own timeline."

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 1h
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — FEB 5, 2026
■ Engagements and casualties remain below the 7-day average; no confirmed change in territory
■ Record 7-day equipment and drone losses; heavy losses of unarmored equipment and artillery
■ Visually confirmed batch: 29 🇷🇺 : 42 🇺🇦 — 0.7x over the last 90 days (0.6x in 2026)
■ Overnight attacks: 185 drones and two Iskander-M; 84% intercepted, with 23 locations hit or affected by debris
■ Seven 🇺🇦 strikes reported; 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 30-day strike ratio rises but still well below 20

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov said that after the trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi, the negotiation process continued on February 4 in a group format.
From the American side, the consultations were attended by Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Josh Gruenbaum, Daniel Driscoll, and General Alex Hrinkevich. The Russian side was represented at a high military level, Umerov added.

🗣The number of contentious issues in the peace settlement in Ukraine has noticeably decreased, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
He noted that Washington’s goal is to continue negotiations, as progress is being made.

The European Parliament will hold an extraordinary session on February 24 to honor the courage of the Ukrainian people in resisting Russian aggression.
European Parliament President Metsola stressed that during the session, MEPs will reaffirm their unwavering commitment to a just and lasting peace, as well as their concrete support for Ukraine.

Spain will deliver six powerful generators to Ukraine, which will supply electricity to more than 14,000 people and critical infrastructure.
Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Álvarez handed over the batch to Ukrainian Ambassador Yulia Sokolovska to support the country amid massive Russian attacks on the energy system. According to Spain’s Foreign Ministry, the total capacity of the generators is 6.3 MW.
Álvarez noted that in October 2025 Spain had already provided 70 smaller generators to Ukraine, but the current delivery is the largest by total capacity due to the unprecedented scale of Russian attacks.

President Zelenskyy, together with Polish Prime Minister Tusk, honored the memory of the fallen Ukrainian defenders.

❗️Ukraine has provided the United States with detailed information on all shelling incidents since Russia announced its so-called “agreement” to a ceasefire — Ukrainian Ambassador to the US Olha Stefanishyna.
The data was prepared jointly with the Ministry of Energy and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to the ambassador, this information could influence the negotiations, as it undermines Russia’s position.
Stefanishyna also expressed hope that the American side will follow a “less illusions, more pressure” approach.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces have eliminated Russian war criminal Sergei Zotov, who was involved in the killing of civilians and the abuse of Ukrainian prisoners of war, — HUR reported.
The neutralized occupier had previously listed himself among Ukrainian registries of war criminals.

Zaporizhzhia. At the site where Russian terrorists killed two young Ukrainians, residents are bringing flowers and toys and lighting candles in remembrance.
“We will not forgive,” the military say.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

In February, Kyiv will have only 4–6 hours of electricity per day.
CHP-6 Kyiv and the Darnytsia CHP have suffered critical damage and have been taken out of operation for an extended period, said Ignatyev, head of the council of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association.
According to him, restoring other unique equipment could take years.

Ukrainian forces have destroyed one of Russia’s most feared weapons — the $15 million Solntsepyok (www.kyivpost.com/post/69392) thermobaric rocket launcher — marking the first time it has ever been taken out on Russian territory.

Ukraine’s real GDP rose by 3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69462) compared to the same period of 2024.
The estimate for Ukraine’s real GDP growth accelerated in the second half of 2025, though at a slightly slower pace than the National Bank of Ukraine projected.

The US Air Force has successfully tested the ERAM cruise missile for Ukraine, (www.kyivpost.com/post/69408) clearing the way for mass production of a low-cost weapon designed for long-range strikes.

Ukrainian AI drone developer Swarmer has officially applied for an initial public offering (www.kyivpost.com/post/69400) on the Nasdaq Capital Market.

A 22-year-old Russian man has been fined for spreading what authorities describe as “LGBT propaganda” after posting an image of the legendary rock band Queen (www.kyivpost.com/post/69368) dressed in women’s clothing.

Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia has attempted to assassinate him several times and that he has grown accustomed to the threat.
In an interview with France Télévisions, the president said he no longer feels fear the way he did at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

A thermal power plant on Kyiv’s left bank was completely destroyed by Russian ballistic missiles overnight on February 4.
Kyiv Post is on the ground at the site, documenting the devastation firsthand. What once supplied heat to hundreds of thousands of residents has been reduced to twisted metal and shattered concrete after the Russian attack, which effectively ended the so-called “energy truce.”
Built in the mid-1950s, the plant was a backbone of Kyiv’s heating system.
Today, tens of thousands of civilians remain without heat as temperatures plunge to −20°C. There is no clear timeline for restoration. Energy crews are working inside the wreckage, trying to determine whether anything can still be salvaged. https://t.me/Kyivpost_official/34472

Politicians speak of “mutual concessions” (www.kyivpost.com/post/69280) as a path to peace. Intelligence asserts: such compromises are not peace, but a pause before a new war and a higher price.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Zelenskyy stated that Putin is afraid of Trump and is not afraid of Europeans.
He added that "democracy cannot defeat Putin, who does not follow the rules of war" and warned of the risks of future tragedies in Europe in case of Russian advancement.
"Putin's interest lies in humiliating Europe," Zelenskyy claims, believing that the pressure on the Russian president is "insufficient."
In his opinion, it is necessary to "conduct a dialogue on certain conditions."

🇺🇸The US has prepared a new package of sanctions against Russia but is not introducing them yet, Bloomberg reports.
New restrictions are being prepared as the European Union has also developed another sanctions package for the fourth anniversary of the full scale war. They include restrictions on Russia's shadow fleet.
▪️The last and so far only major package of sanctions against the Russian Federation was introduced by the Donald Trump administration in October 2025. At that time, Lukoil and Rosneft fell under the restrictions.

🇫🇷 An advisor to French President Emmanuel Macron secretly traveled to Moscow to hold negotiations with Putin's aide, Reuters reports, citing sources.
The meeting between the Frenchman and Yuri Ushakov took place on February 2 and concerned the war against Ukraine. European allies were aware of this meeting.
Macron's administration neither confirmed nor denied the negotiations but stated that discussions at the technical level are ongoing in full transparency.
▪️Ushakov was Russia's permanent representative to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe in 1996—1998, and from 1998 to 2008, he was the ambassador to the US. In 2008—2012, he held the position of deputy head of the Russian government staff, and since 2012, he has been Putin's advisor on foreign policy. He participated in negotiations with Ukraine in 2022 in Istanbul.

In Michurinsk, Tambov region of the Russian Federation, a freight train carrying fuel derailed.
Local residents report explosions and the ignition of tank cars.

🇮🇹 In Italy, cyberattacks by Russia targeting embassies and facilities in the city of Cortina dʼAmpezzo, which will host the Olympic Games this year, have been repelled.
This was reported by Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. According to him, the attacks were prevented without significant consequences.
The pro-Russian hacker group NoName057(16) claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Well, this is a bit concerning. From the WSJ:

A Wargame Shows Just How Vulnerable Europe Is to a Russian Attack - With America disengaging, Russia might be ready for new war much sooner than previously estimated

It's important to note that a single wargaming exercise often isn't that informative. They're usually run iteratively. And the results are controversial, which is all covered in the article.

It has prompted a lot of discussion in defense and political circles in Europe, and is certainly food for thought.

Does it mention the Japanese wargaming WWII?

I don't believe it does. Are you thinking of the Japanese Kantai Kessen (Decisive Battle) war games? Those are widely criticized for optimistic groupthink, leading to Japanese overconfidence.

Wargames are now conducted largely with specialized software, which greatly reduces human bias and influence.

As I understood it the main problem was that obviously the Japanese side had to be played by the Big Brass, and the Big Brass were always going to have to be allowed to win or they would lose face.

My source is wargamer friends, who may be using it as a spurious Frightful Example, of course.

No, it was a real problem for the Japanese. Hits on Japanese aircraft carriers were reversed by the referees to get the "correct outcome", for example. This is often covered in military science courses as an example of how not to do wargames.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-4-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations continued trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE) on February 4.
2. Senior Kremlin officials and mouthpieces reiterated Russia’s commitments to its war goals and explicitly rejected Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine, likely to set information conditions to reject any peace deal that does not concede to Russian demands.
3. The United States concluded a deal to transport liquified natural gas (LNG) to Ukraine through the Vertical Gas Corridor.
4. Russian forces are intensifying their battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, setting conditions for future offensive operations against Kostyantynivka using lessons learned from Pokrovsk.
5. The Russian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) have already reportedly formed seven regiments, 25 battalions, one division, and three detachments separate of the Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies and the BARS-Sarmat Unmanned Systems Special Purpose Center.
6. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Major General Oleh Luhovskyi as the acting head of the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service on February 4.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk and Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Its 65 for everyone in Finland now, used to be 60 for officers and 50 for non-officers. Colonels and above are in the reserves for life, so long as health permits them to be recalled.