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Ukraine Invasion: Part 60

966 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2026 12:28

We have got to thread 60. So many thanks as always to regular contributors and to those providing updates. For the 60th time, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

**
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ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 16/01/2026 12:58

PerkingFaintly · 16/01/2026 11:31

That's a clever graphic on empires across time and space, @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar . Thanks for that.

isn't it interesting! clever people, these ones who make infographics :)

@notimagain there were claims in post Trump-election that the US was turning off intelligence information to Ukraine as part of the motivator for Ukraine to negotiate. It seems to have been feasible and have happened at times (judging only by public media outlets) so perhaps the intelligence flow has been permanently throttled.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 16/01/2026 15:54

Perhaps unreliable (ie intermittent) intelligence sources get treated as unreliable and therefore not relied on? The USA playing on-again off-again doesn't inspire confidence in them, I'd've thought.

MissConductUS · 16/01/2026 16:09

My understanding is that the entire supply was cut off at once to make a point to the Ukrainians, then turned back on. Because various types and sources of intelligence have to be integrated to be useful, it's more of an all-or-nothing type of resource.

I'm very skeptical of Macron's claim to be supplying two thirds of Ukraine's intel. I also don't think that increased focus on Latin America would have constrained intel supply to Ukraine.

The primary satellite platform the Ukrainians have received intel from is the Keyhole satellites, which take very high-resolution pictures of the Earth from low Earth orbit. They carry limited fuel for repositioning, and it's very fuel-intensive to shift them about, so they are only moved for matters of critical importance. There are also enough of them in orbit to provide routine coverage of both South America and Eastern Europe.

notimagain · 16/01/2026 17:12

There'd no doubt the Keyhole series set the gold standard but TBF you can achieve a lot with the resolution commercial outlets like Maxar can provide..down to 30 cm in some cases
..

MissConductUS · 16/01/2026 17:45

notimagain · 16/01/2026 17:12

There'd no doubt the Keyhole series set the gold standard but TBF you can achieve a lot with the resolution commercial outlets like Maxar can provide..down to 30 cm in some cases
..

Correct. The commercial providers are fine for surveillance of vehicle movements, construction activity, etc. And that’s most of the need. Keyhole can read the license plates of vehicles and in some cases identify individuals with reasonable accuracy. That can be helpful.

The US also provides signals intelligence that isn’t available from any other source, with the possible exception of GCHQ in some areas.

LlttledrummergirI · 16/01/2026 23:17

Thank you for the new thread, somehow I lost you so I'm very glad to have found you again.

blueshoes · 17/01/2026 02:57

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-16-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian milbloggers continue to loudly reject the alternate battlefield reality that Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian military commanders are trying to create.
  2. The Russian military command has displayed a clear pattern of publicly presenting false information about the battlefield as part of a wider cognitive warfare effort that aims to influence US decision-making about ongoing peace negotiations.
  3. Falling Russian oil and gas revenues and Russia’s continued depletion of its liquid reserves will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war in Ukraine.
  4. Insufficient infrastructure investments in Russia’s Far East are likely hurting Russian economic agreements with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
  5. Ukrainian forces are countering recent Russian Shahed strike drone adaptations that allowed Russian forces to target Ukrainian aircraft, highlighting the short offense-defense technological cycle in the war.
  6. Media reports suggest that a car accident seriously injured Adam Kadyrov, the son of Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov and possible successor, but ISW cannot independently verify these reports.
  7. Ukraine’s European partners announced new aid to support the Ukrainian military and energy grid.
  8. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 60
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/01/2026 10:51

@blueshoes I looked into that stuff about the far east and PRC and energy. This is the ISW's in depth statement

Insufficient infrastructure investments in Russia’s Far East are likely hurting Russian economic agreements with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Russian state business outlet Kommersant reported on January 16 that the PRC halted electricity purchases from Russia as of January 1 after Russian export prices rose above domestic Chinese prices for the first time.[23] Kommersant stated that the PRC refused to purchase the minimum contracted volumes under its long-term agreement, despite the contract running through 2037. Kommersant stated that electricity prices in Russia’s Far East have been rising since the beginning of 2026 and that price dynamics indicate that electricity prices could be up to 42 percent higher than in January 2025. Kommersant credited the rising prices to “market liberalization” in the Far East. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged in September 2024, however, that energy shortages in the Far East were holding back industrial and infrastructure projects, and Russian authorities have not maintained energy infrastructure in the region, causing power shortages and rising prices for residents.[24] Years of neglect of the Far East’s infrastructure likely contributed to the shortages and price spikes that led to the PRC halting electricity purchases.

This sounds like it could be a long term problem for Russia to supply the contracted electricity at a reasonable price since the cause of the high cost appears to be structural.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/01/2026 11:03

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ukrainian delegation en route to US to meet Trump's team. (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-delegation-en-route-to-us-to-meet-trumps-team/)
Ukraine hopes to gain more clarity on "documents that we have actually drafted with the American side, and regarding Russia's response to all this diplomatic work," Zelensky said.

⚡️ Kadyrov's son Adam (kyivindependent.com/adam-kadyrov-car-accident-hospital/) reportedly in Moscow hospital after car accident in Grozny, Chechnya.
The motorcade had reportedly been moving at a high speed before encountering an obstacle, leading to a mass accident and a number of victims.

⚡️US considering creating (kyivindependent.com/us-considering-creating-board-of-peace-in-ukraine-modeled-after-plan-for-gaza-ft-reports/) 'Board of Peace' for Ukraine, modeled after plan for Gaza, FT reports.
American officials have put forward the idea of expanding the Gaza 'Board of Peace' to include other countries affected by war and conflicts, including Ukraine, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Jan. 16.

⚡️ Navy confirms major damage (https://kyivindependent.com/navy-confirms-major-damage-to-russian-drone-factory-after-joint-operation-with-sbu/) to Russian drone factory after joint operation with SBU.
The announcement was posted by the Navy on Jan. 16, after the SBU first reported the strike three days earlier.

⚡️ Trump floats tariffs (kyivindependent.com/trump-floats-tariffs-on-countries-opposing-his-greenland-ambitions/) on countries opposing his Greenland ambitions.
"I may put a tariff on countries if they don't go along with Greenland, because we need Greenland for national security. So I may do that," Trump said.

⚡️'Russia is preparing new massive attacks (kyivindependent.com/russia-is-preparing-new-massive-attacks-zelensky-says/),' Zelensky says.

⚡️Poland charges (kyivindependent.com/poland-charges-4-ukrainians-1-russian-in-alleged-russia-backed-sabotage-plot/) 4 Ukrainians, 1 Russian in alleged Russia-backed sabotage plot.

⚡️ Putin pitches himself as mediator (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-calls-leaders-of-iran-israel-as-regional-tensions-linger/) after calls with Israel, Iran amid regional tensions.
Putin said Russia is ready to serve as a mediator in the Middle East, an offer that follows signals that the U.S. might launch strikes against Iran amid a deadly crackdown on protests.

⚡️ Ukraine eases curfew rules (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-eases-curfew-rules-amid-deepening-energy-crisis/) as energy crisis caused by Russian attacks deepens.
Ukraine is loosening curfew restrictions to allow citizens to reach humanitarian aid centers even at nighttime, Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

⚡️Germany turns away (kyivindependent.com/germany-turns-away-suspected-russian-shadow-fleet-tanker-from-baltic-sea/) suspected Russian shadow fleet tanker from Baltic Sea.
Germany turned away a Russian-linked oil tanker from entering its territorial waters in the Baltic Sea this week, marking the first known instance of a European country blocking a vessel in Moscow's shadow fleet, Bloomberg reported Jan. 16.

⚡️Over half of Ukrainians support (kyivindependent.com/around-55-ukrainians-support-holding-referendum-on-peace-deal-poll-shows/) holding referendum on peace deal, poll shows.
Around 55% of Ukrainians support holding a referendum on a potential peace deal to end Russia's war against Ukraine, while 32% oppose this idea, according to the poll.

⚡️ Ukraine embassy in Iran temporarily closed (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-embassy-in-iran-temporarily-closed-as-trump-eyes-possible-strikes/) as Trump eyes possible strikes.
The embassy said it would provide further updates on the resumption of activities and any additional measures.

⚡️Russian authorities increase restrictions (kyivindependent.com/russian-authorities-increase-restrictions-on-telegram/) on Telegram.
Roskomnadzor, the Russian federal agency responsible for monitoring mass media and telecommunications, has imposed new restrictions on the Telegram messaging app, Moscow 24 reported Jan. 16.

⚡️ China halts electricity imports (kyivindependent.com/china-stops-electricity-imports-from-russia-russian-media-reports/) from Russia, Russian media reports.
China's electricity purchases from Russia were suspended on Jan. 1 due to higher export prices that now exceed domestic Chinese rates, Kommersant reported. [ as @blueshoes reported]

⚡️ Court sets Tymoshenko $760,000 bail (kyivindependent.com/court-sets-tymoshenko-760-000-bail-amid-bribery-investigation/) amid bribery investigation.
Ex-Prime Minister Yuliia Tymoshenko is also obliged to appear in court when summoned and cannot leave Kyiv Oblast.

Inside Ukraine’s resistance under Russian occupation ()
In this exclusive interview, The Kyiv Independent’s Yuliia Taradiuk speaks with a Ukrainian special operations forces officer who helps organize resistance movements in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine. He explains how civilians are trained and supported under occupation, why resistance continues despite the risks, and why Ukraine will keep fighting until its territories and people are liberated.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 1h
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JAN 17, 2026
■ Engagements close to average, with casualties slightly above it; no confirmed area change
■ Record 7-day equipment losses, driven by high drone and land-based equipment losses in recent days
■ Overnight 🇷🇺 attacks incl. 115 drones; 83% intercepted, with 13 locations hit or affected by debris
■ Seven 🇺🇦 strikes reported; the 30-day 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 strike ratio remains below 20 for a second consecutive day

Ukraine Invasion: Part 60
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/01/2026 11:08

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

A local ceasefire has been declared near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to allow repairs to power lines, the IAEA said.
The move concerns a backup 330 kV line damaged on January 2. At present, the Russian-occupied plant receives power for reactor cooling only through a single 750 kV main line from Ukraine’s power grid.
Ukrainian energy workers are expected to begin repair work in the coming days.

❗️Ukraine cannot cover more than a third of its electricity needs — President Zelenskyy.
Yesterday, electricity consumption in Ukraine reached 18 GW, while system capacity stood at just 11 GW.
“Restoration work follows every strike. We have many repair teams, but they cannot do everything alone. This is complex work,” the president said.
Ukraine is currently experiencing severe frosts, with temperatures in some areas dropping to −20°C (−4°F).

🇫🇮 Finland will provide Ukraine with its 31st package of defense assistance. The decision was approved on January 16 by Finnish President Alexander Stubb following a government proposal.
For operational reasons and to ensure the safe delivery of the aid, Finland’s Ministry of Defense is not disclosing details on the package’s contents, delivery methods, or timeline.

Starting in February, Ukraine and the United Kingdom will produce thousands of Octopus interceptor drones each month, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said.

The Speaker of the Latvian Saeima said Latvia backs Ukraine on its path to the EU and supports its NATO membership as a matter of European security.

Overnight, the enemy launched another cynical strike on energy infrastructure in the Odesa region. Damage was recorded at one of the facilities, and a fire broke out. Fortunately, there were no fatalities or injuries.

China has completely stopped importing electricity from Russia since the start of 2026 and is not purchasing even the minimum contract volume of about 12 MW — The Moscow Times.
According to sources familiar with the situation, electricity exports to China are unlikely to resume this year, as export prices have exceeded domestic electricity prices in China since January, making the supplies unprofitable for Beijing.
Inter RAO had been exporting surplus electricity from Russia’s Far East to China under a contract signed with China’s State Grid Corporation in 2012. The agreement runs until 2037 and envisioned total deliveries of about 100 billion kWh, or roughly 4 billion kWh per year.
The pricing formula under the contract has not been disclosed. It may be linked to the single-rate electricity price in the Far East and include transmission tariffs to the Amursk–Heihe cross-border power line, as well as Inter RAO’s margin.
Chinese importers then resell the electricity to domestic consumers at retail prices.

Forever 22. Kyiv bids farewell to a Brazilian who defended Ukraine in the war.
Defender of Ukraine Caua Victor da Silva, call sign “Kurt,” was from Brasília. He came to Ukraine to join the Defense Forces and fight alongside his comrades against the Russian occupiers.
In civilian life, Silva worked as a chef. In August 2025, he chose to become a soldier.
On December 12, he was killed near Stepnohirsk while trying to retrieve the bodies of fallen comrades. His brothers-in-arms gathered to see the Brazilian defender off on his final journey.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 60
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/01/2026 11:12

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine received a “serious” package of air defense missiles [yesterday] — Zelensky
“Until [yesterday], we had several air defense systems WIHTOUT missiles. Today I can speak about this openly, because as of today, we have these missiles,” the president said.

Anti-corruption agency says former head of Zelensky’s office Yermak and former defence minister Umerov are not under investigation, (www.kyivpost.com/post/68152) despite a sweeping corruption probe shaking Kyiv.

Zelensky held a meeting on energy and heating, ordering officials to urgently address buildings in Kyiv that remain without heat and to resolve discrepancies in reporting.
He called on the Energy Ministry and all central authorities to step up efforts to help residents, and stressed the need to immediately increase electricity imports.

Ukraine’s security service arrested two alleged Russian intelligence agents in Odesa (www.kyivpost.com/post/68184) who were preparing explosive drone attacks on Ukrainian military targets from inside the city.

Most Ukrainians do not believe that current negotiations with Russia will lead to a lasting peace, according to a new survey published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
The poll found that 69% of respondents said they do not expect ongoing talks with Moscow to result in sustainable peace in Ukraine. Only 26% said they believe negotiations could succeed, while 5% were undecided.
Skepticism runs even deeper when Ukrainians consider a potential “freeze” of the war. According to the survey, 57% believe that even if fighting were halted along current front lines and Ukraine received security guarantees, Russia would eventually attack again.
Another 26% said the likelihood of renewed aggression is “50-50,” reflecting widespread fears of a repeat invasion. Just 11% said they do not expect Russia to strike again.

Russian overnight strike slams into Kharkiv apartment block, killing two civilians and injuring others (www.kyivpost.com/post/68235) as rescuers search the ruins.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/01/2026 11:16

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇸🇺🇦 A new round of negotiations between the delegations of Ukraine and the US will take place tomorrow, January 17, in Miami, announced Ukraine's Ambassador to the US, Olha Stefanishyna.
Ukraine will be represented at the negotiating table by the Head of the Office of the President, Kyrylo Budanov, RNBO Secretary Rustem Umerov, and the leader of the "Sluha Narodu" (Servant of the People) faction, Davyd Arakhamia.

🇪🇺🇺🇦The EU is preparing an "easy entry" plan for Ukraine, the Financial Times reports, citing sources.
The plan involves a format in which Ukraine initially will not have a full right to vote at summits and ministerial meetings. At the same time, Kyiv will gain gradual access to the EU single market, agricultural subsidies, and development funds.
Some member states fear that such an approach will create a "two-tier membership," devalue enlargement rules, and cause dissatisfaction among other candidates.
Some diplomats explicitly call the idea a "trap" that could undermine the unity of the European Union.

Lighting has been dimmed at five major railway stations in Ukraine to save electricity.
The measures affect Lviv, Dnipro, Odesa, Kyiv, and Kharkiv.
There are currently 97 "Points of Invincibility" operating at Ukrzaliznytsia stations, where people can warm up and recharge their gadgets. In the near future, another 50 Points will open at smaller stations and halts across the country.

Last night, Russians attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Here is what is currently known.
🔴 "Naftogaz" reported an attack on equipment that supports gas production. The company stated that this is the sixth attack on its facilities within a week.
🔴The occupiers attacked critical infrastructure facilities in the Odesa region and an infrastructure facility in Zaporizhzhia.
🔴In the Bucha district of the Kyiv region, 56,000 families were left without electricity due to the night attack. Power engineers immediately restored power to critical infrastructure facilities. Restoration work is ongoing.

🇭🇺 The government of Viktor Orbán, which is preparing for challenging elections in April, plans to launch so-called "national consultations" so that Hungarians can express their "no" to EU financial support for Ukraine in the coming years.
The head of the Hungarian government said that Ukraine estimates its financial needs for support from partners at 800 billion euros over ten years. He stated that the EU would provide money to Ukraine from two sources: first, by "squeezing" money out of member states, and then by taking out a loan.

[more details, tho possibly just rumours]
❗️Kadyrov's son was involved in a car accident in Grozny and is in critical condition, according to Chechen opposition activists.
Reports state that the entire city has been cordoned off because of this. He is reportedly being prepared for transport to Moscow. It is also indicated that UFC fighter Khamzat Chimaev was in the car with him and may have been killed.
However, no footage or official confirmation has emerged yet

Ukraine Invasion: Part 60
Ukraine Invasion: Part 60
Positivethought · 17/01/2026 19:52

Here you are! Got lost. As ever, sincere thanks to all for updates and contributions.

blueshoes · 17/01/2026 21:37

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/01/2026 10:51

@blueshoes I looked into that stuff about the far east and PRC and energy. This is the ISW's in depth statement

Insufficient infrastructure investments in Russia’s Far East are likely hurting Russian economic agreements with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Russian state business outlet Kommersant reported on January 16 that the PRC halted electricity purchases from Russia as of January 1 after Russian export prices rose above domestic Chinese prices for the first time.[23] Kommersant stated that the PRC refused to purchase the minimum contracted volumes under its long-term agreement, despite the contract running through 2037. Kommersant stated that electricity prices in Russia’s Far East have been rising since the beginning of 2026 and that price dynamics indicate that electricity prices could be up to 42 percent higher than in January 2025. Kommersant credited the rising prices to “market liberalization” in the Far East. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged in September 2024, however, that energy shortages in the Far East were holding back industrial and infrastructure projects, and Russian authorities have not maintained energy infrastructure in the region, causing power shortages and rising prices for residents.[24] Years of neglect of the Far East’s infrastructure likely contributed to the shortages and price spikes that led to the PRC halting electricity purchases.

This sounds like it could be a long term problem for Russia to supply the contracted electricity at a reasonable price since the cause of the high cost appears to be structural.

Good.

Looks like there are economic limits to China's support of Russia and that Russia is unlikely to climb out of this hole any time soon. Another chip in Russia's ability to fund its war machine.

blueshoes · 18/01/2026 02:53

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-17-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. US and Ukrainian officials held another round of peace negotiations in Miami, Florida on January 17.
  2. European countries appear to be cracking down against oil tankers associated with the shadow fleets of Russia and its allies.
  3. NATO jets scrambled in response to another Russian military aircraft flight close to NATO airspace.
  4. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Pokrovsk.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/01/2026 16:25

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Russia welcomes Trump's tariffs (kyivindependent.com/russia-welcomes-trumps-tariffs-on-nato-allies-over-greenland/) on NATO allies over Greenland as 'collapse' of alliance.
"The transatlantic alliance is over," Kremlin economic negotiator Kirill Dmitriev said.

⚡️ Ukrainian crew begins 'crucial' repairs (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-crew-begins-crucial-repairs-on-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-backup-line/) on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant backup line under IAEA-brokered ceasefire.
The 330-kilovolt power line, damaged and disconnected by military activity on Jan. 2, is vital for supplying the plant with external electricity.

⚡️ Russia seeks to disconnect Ukraine's nuclear power plants, HUR says, risking potential meltdown (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-faces-potential-meltdown-as-russia-seeks-to-disconnect-nuclear-plants/).
Disconnecting Ukraine's nuclear power plants would fully cut off electricity and heating in subzero temperatures.

⚡️Does Russia or China actually threaten Greenland? Experts say Trump's warnings don't match reality (kyivindependent.com/does-russia-or-china-actually-threaten-greenland-experts-say-trumps-warnings-dont-match-reality/)
President Donald Trump has been fixated on controlling Greenland, suggesting that U.S. ownership of the island is crucial in blocking Russian and Chinese expansion.
Security experts and European officials say Greenland faces no immediate military threat — raising a pointed question: are Trump's warnings about Greenland genuine security concerns, or a pretext for a more unilateral U.S. push in the Arctic?
⚡️Ukrainian sanctions target Russian sports (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-sanctions-target-russian-sports-ahead-of-winter-olympics/) ahead of Winter Olympics.

⚡️'No intimidation or threat will influence us' — Europe hits back (kyivindependent.com/no-intimidation-or-threat-will-influence-us-macron-hits-back-at-trump-tariff-warning/) at Trump tariff warning.
French President Emmanuel Macron, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and other officials voiced support for Denmark, Greenland, and principles of international law in statements denouncing Trump's tariffs on Jan. 17.
In a rare public criticism of the White House, Starmer called the tariffs "completely wrong."

⚡️ 'Warmth from Poland' — Fundraiser raises $330,000 to buy generators for Kyiv (https://kyivindependent.com/fundraiser-raises-330-000-to-buy-generators-for-kyiv-as-russia-targets-energy/) as Russia targets energy.
After quickly reaching the initial target, organizers raised the goal to 2 million zloty ($550,000).

⚡️Crashed Russian drone discovered (kyivindependent.com/crashed-russian-drone-discovered-in-moldova-authorities-report/) in Moldova, authorities report.
The drone was found by a hunter in the village of Nucareni, in the Telenesti District of the country, which is located approximately 54 kilometers (33 miles) from the Moldova-Ukraine border.

⚡️ Italy detains vessel carrying metal (kyivindependent.com/italy-detains-vessel-carrying-russian-metal-for-suspected-eu-sanctions-violations/) for suspected Russia sanctions violations.
The Brindisi Court approved the seizure of both the vessel and its cargo, which included 33 tons of ferrous metal.

⚡️Pro-Ukrainian partisans sabotage (https://kyivindependent.com/pro-ukrainian-partisans-sabotage-electrical-substation-in-russias-bryansk-oblast-group-claims/) electrical substation in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, group claims.

⚡️Over 163,000 Russian soldiers killed (kyivindependent.com/media-investigation-identifies-over-163-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/) in Ukraine identified by media investigation.
Russian independent media outlet Mediazona, in collaboration with the BBC Russian service, has confirmed the identities of 163,606 Russian military personnel killed in Ukraine.

⚡️ Russian attacks kill 5, injure 30 across Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-5-injure-30-across-ukraine-as-moscow-again-targets-energy-infrastructure/) as Moscow again targets energy infrastructure.
Ukraine's Air Force reported that it had shot down 167 out of 201 drones Russia launched overnight.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 1h
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JAN 18, 2026
■ Engagements and casualties well below the 7-day average; no newly confirmed area change
■ Record 7-day equipment losses, driven by high drone and land-based equipment losses in recent days
■ Overnight 🇷🇺 attacks incl. 201 drones; 83% intercepted, w/ 17 locations hit or affected by debris
■ 8 🇺🇦 strikes reported; the strike ratio continues to improve (below 20 for the third consecutive day)

Ukraine Invasion: Part 60
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/01/2026 16:29

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia may strike substations linked to Ukrainian nuclear power plants to force Kyiv into surrender talks, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) warns.
As part of this pressure campaign, Moscow also plans to step up intimidation of European countries and the West to curb support for Ukraine, particularly assistance aimed at countering Russian air attacks on critical energy infrastructure.
▫️ By destroying or disabling these substations, Russia aims to disconnect nuclear power units from Ukraine’s unified energy grid, leaving civilians without electricity and heat.
▫️ As of mid-January 2025, Russia had conducted reconnaissance of ten critical energy facilities across nine regions of Ukraine.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called on the IAEA and leading world powers to pressure Russia to abandon plans to strike substations that supply power to Ukrainian nuclear power plants.
He said Ukraine is sharing relevant intelligence with its partners, warning of potentially catastrophic consequences.

⚡️ The Ministry of Energy showed how power engineers are restoring electricity supply in extremely difficult conditions. https://t.me/United24media/39089

🇪🇪 Estonia expels Russian national who spread Kremlin propaganda and praised the Russian Guard.
On his Facebook page, David Harutyunyan glorified service in the Russian army, sent greetings to the Russian Guard, and referred to Russian units as “peacekeepers.”

🤬Russian operators strapped 8 mice to their FPV drone for fun. https://t.me/United24media/39083

UNITED24Media

🤬Russian operators strapped 8 mice to their FPV drone for fun.

https://t.me/United24media/39083

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/01/2026 16:32

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

A senior Russian general, once favored by the Kremlin but unpopular with troops for his brutal frontal assaults, has been dismissed after four years in top command roles in Ukraine. (www.kyivpost.com/post/68140)

Kyiv faces up to 20 hours without electricity each day after relentless Russian strikes, yet residents are finding creative ways to cope with the blackout. (www.kyivpost.com/post/68177)

Zelensky said Russia launched more than 1,300 attack drones in the past week, (www.kyivpost.com/post/68274) as crews worked to restore power and Ukraine renewed calls for more air defenses.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/01/2026 16:35

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Due to the lack of electricity and heating in some districts of Kyiv, people are experiencing burst pipes and radiators.
In some apartments, walls and entrances are freezing through. At times, it is impossible to get plumbers to bleed the air from the pipes.
Some residents are attempting to pour water leaking from radiators directly out of their windows.
In the Teremky neighborhood, people are warming themselves on the street around bonfires made from discarded Christmas trees.

On Friday night, the temperature in one of the apartments of a high-rise building on Kamianska Street in Kyiv dropped to –5.8 °C.
The building is located in the Kharkivskyi neighborhood.
Since November of last year, power grids there have been regularly failing — residents have had to use electricity according to a schedule. An additional blow was a fire that broke out that same night.
Following these events, living conditions became virtually uninhabitable. At the same time, people who have nowhere else to go remain in the building. Among them is 56-year-old Valerii Antonovych, who uses a wheelchair.

The number of detained men of military age who attempted to illegally cross the border with Belarus has increased by 337%.
In border areas with other countries, the number of men wishing to cross the border has decreased compared to the previous year.

🇪🇸 Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez warned that if Trump were to pursue his ambitions regarding Greenland, it would make the Russian ruler "the happiest man in the world," handing him two victories at once.

Russia attacked Ukraine with over 200 strike drones; air defense shot down 167 of them, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.

A mural dedicated to Iryna Zarutska, a Ukrainian woman murdered in the U.S., has been created in New York City

Here is what is currently known about the consequences:
🔴Kharkiv. Russia struck the Kholodnohirskyi district of the city, killing a 20-year-old girl. Houses were damaged in the city, and a fire broke out over an area of 150 m2.
🔴Sumy. Overnight, Russians attacked a residential sector of the city with aviation. As a result of the strike, three women and a 7-year-old child were injured. Preliminarily, 15 residential buildings were damaged.
🔴Dnipropetrovsk Region. Russia struck the Vasylkivska community. Six people were injured; three private houses, an outbuilding, a fire and rescue unit building, and a car were damaged. Additionally, as a result of the artillery shelling of Nikopol, an outbuilding was destroyed, and seven private houses and two garages were damaged. A power line and a gas pipeline were also hit.
🔴Odesa Region. Russia attacked the energy infrastructure of the region; a fire broke out, and a production building and a passenger car were damaged.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 60
Ukraine Invasion: Part 60
Ukraine Invasion: Part 60
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 18/01/2026 16:39

"⚡️ Russia welcomes Trump's tariffs (kyivindependent.com/russia-welcomes-trumps-tariffs-on-nato-allies-over-greenland/) on NATO allies over Greenland as 'collapse' of alliance.
"The transatlantic alliance is over," Kremlin economic negotiator Kirill Dmitriev said."

Gosh, there's a surprise. Anyone might think Trump was Russia's agent.

PerkingFaintly · 18/01/2026 17:44

Since November of last year, power grids there have been regularly failing — residents have had to use electricity according to a schedule. An additional blow was a fire that broke out that same night.
Following these events, living conditions became virtually uninhabitable. At the same time, people who have nowhere else to go remain in the building. Among them is 56-year-old Valerii Antonovych, who uses a wheelchair.

I know that people with mobility difficulties are suffering greatly where multistorey flats are a common form of housing. When the power goes off the lifts stop working. On top of the level of deprivation you'd expect from this, especially when heating is also off in the building, there is the problem that they cannot evacuate when air raid sirens go off.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/01/2026 20:22

On top of that in some high rises water is pumped up to the top with electricity. No electricity = no water.

No heating, no way up or down if you use a wheelchair, no water.

PerkingFaintly · 18/01/2026 20:26

Yes exactly. I've lived lots of places with dodgy electricity supplies, but they've been hot countries where many residential buildings are ground floor only and it's mildly unusual to have a second story. The impact just isn't comparable.

Southernecho · 19/01/2026 11:01

I hope this Greenland issue doesn't affect what the US is supplying via NATO countries to Ukraine.

If Trump/EU/UK gets messy, i can imagine him turning off the tap.

Natsku · 19/01/2026 12:00

notimagain · 16/01/2026 17:12

There'd no doubt the Keyhole series set the gold standard but TBF you can achieve a lot with the resolution commercial outlets like Maxar can provide..down to 30 cm in some cases
..

They use commercial satellites from a Finnish company at least (I build parts for these satellites in my new job) they're cool because they provide images even at night and through cloud cover.