Mumsnetters voting Reform

[Illjustplayostrich]

Mumsnet mothers have always leaned Labour. Now Reform is ahead

https://www.thetimes.com/article/dbd39087-465c-4587-9eaa-292606ffb775?shareToken=a99daa444e8bc0f9444cca2bf01f3851

I'm slightly startled by this. I'm a centrist, slightly more right leaning perhaps but frankly I'm open to any government who will get a firm grip on the public finances and go about growing the economy in a sustainable way. My impression of this site is that it's definitely more left leaning and and Reform enthusiasts tend to get shouted down. Personally, I think we should be talking about them a lot more as it's highly likely they will form part of the next government.

My impression is that they are promising the earth but don't have people with the necessary skill set to make that happen. I really worry that they will get voted in and find out that they can't fix all the problems within 18 months, leading to yet more disillusionment amongst voters.

Starmer told us today that he thinks no one else in his party is capable of leading it. The bar is not set high.

You're on shaky ground there.
I raise you, David Lammy. 😂

Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy!

Thats the one. The king of mastermind and cervix expert. 😂

This i never understand...

The UK was in recession for much of 2023, the growth spurt we had in the first 6months of 2024, was as a result of negative growth in the previous year... overall, Labour have had more growth in their first 18m than the Tories had in their last 18months.

i think its easy to forget how bad the Tories really were.

But it is also true that Labour have not introduced the change they promised, in fact, when i hear Lab ministers, it would be easy to imagine we never had an Election.

So i agree with your last sentence.

People planning to vote Reform have moved out of the old was of thinking of either Labour = good, Tories = Bad or Tories = Good, Labour = Bad. We remember how bad the Tories are, we can now see how bad Labour are - that is why it is time to move away from 2 party politics and bring in someone else. The Lib dems should be making hay now but they are made up of the same type of career politician the other old school parties.

I don’t know if I am being unfair or over sensitive but it appears that people who don’t like Reform get unreasonably angry with Reform voters airing their opinions. Some postings are very unpleasant.

You’re right, it is the case.

Well, according to an international survey of over 20k voters across 27 countries, over two-thirds of voters in the big democracies are pessimistic about politics and the abilities of leaders to improve things. FGS Global found that 73% think their political systems are failing and public institutions are wasteful, ineffective and badly run. Over 70% thought life would be worse for the next generation.

That's a precis of a report from today's Times. I know some dislike it, and the Telegraph, but both are fairly serious papers.

It's not just the UK. Among the comments, someone quotes Angela Merkel's 2015 remark about Europe/EU being 5% of the world's population; 25% of the world economy, and 50% of the world's welfare spending.

The EU economy has since shrunk from 25% of the global total.

Well, when almost every voice in the MSM calls Reform far right/bigoted/racist/xenophobic etc, and by extension those prepared to vote for it, and people online just won't engage with pro Reform-ers, it only entrenches the imperative to try and make history at the next GE.
Me? I'm Reform agnostic, Farage hasn't come close to sealing the deal with me, but as a long term Tory voter, my cold anger with the party surpasses the irritation I have with Labour atm.

There’s a media request for women on mn who have shifted to Reform if anyone is feeling brave. In the media request section.

That thread is not really going well at the moment!

Why shouldn't women vote Reform? I really don't get why not.
I thought we're trying to get away from gender stereotypes in this day and age, the main argument against gender ideology.
So, why do gender stereotypes intrude into voting patterns?
Like saying working class should only vote Labour.
I think we'll find at the GE that Reform will harvest shed loads of votes from women, Gen Z, middle class, the S, SW, Scotland, Wales.
And Labour plus Tories will be the ones highly restricted in the demographics and areas voting for them.

We don't have to wait until the Westminster election. We have other national elections coming up. Let's see if the scenario you describe happens in Wales and Scotland on May 7th.

Farage has yet to announce candidates and manifestos. Which speaks volumes.

It’s all very personal rn, accusations, smears and stereotyping. The push / pull of politics. Mumsnet getting an article with women switching creates a different narrative.

You may be right re this post

Please point us to the Labour or Conservative manifestos for these elections? I can't see that they have released them either?

This is worth noting I think. The UK does have problems but so does the EU. I was not a Brexiteer but some of the criticisms of it are spot on. Its percentage of world trade is declining. The overall defence capability of Europe is something not being addressed fast enough given the proxy war in Ukraine. And mainstream political parties are struggling against populist politics. Europe is not powerful in this new world of “spheres of influence”. And it does not show signs of getting there either.

I do think Starmer has done a good job internationally (domestically I am critical). Reform and their Russian links bother me greatly. I am never going to be a natural Conservative; but actually, that bothers me enough for me to vote Conservative to keep Reform out. Whatever I think of the Conservative Party they do not repeat Russian propaganda.

It's kind of win win. The Conservatives are moving to the right leaving EHRC, tougher stances on etc. Hopefully they will use the threat of Reform to get through the welfare reforms we all know we need. If the left vote conservative to keep Reform out then Reform voters get 75% of what they want. The main thing we need is for people not vote Labour.

+1.
There'll be no alliance before the GE.
Farage and Badenoch will maintain their sangfroid, I think there's genuine personal dislike between the two of them.
But both parties will tack to broadly common areas of policy.
Maybe some very low level cooperation at local level, where a no hope Tory in Red Wall will de-escalate campaigning, ditto a Reform candidate in bluest of Blue Wall.
Right voters will then implicitly tactically vote for the right candidate that is the most likely shoe-in locally.
The left will also do this, but unlike the right that only have to manage a 2-way split, the left split is 3-way, 4 with YP, 5-6 with SNP and Plaid.

Be clear this would not be a vote of confidence in Kemi Badenoch who I think is a fool. And your ECHR point does make me pause. Because the effect if both parties have the same policy there is actually very significant. There would be perhaps very little to choose if Reform and Conservative had the same policy there.

Btw I don’t actually know what the Conservative policy is on the ECHR. I understand Reform want to leave. I have also seen some policy announcements from them that build on the consequences of that which mean I will never vote for them. If the Conservatives had similar intentions then I would not vote for them either for the same reason.

I am not sure official 2026 manifestos have been publushed, to be fair. But Plaid, Welsh Labour, Welsh Tories etc. all have set out the direction of travel on their websites.For example.

The parties took part in a debate a few days ago. Reform refused to attend.

I will amend my statement to:

Farage has yet to announce candidates and policies and refused to take part in a debate. Which speaks volumes.

She’s nowhere near a fool. But many think this of Starmer.

Thankfully more are seeing that’s the case.

I always see Kemi as the last of the Cameron/Gove protege generation.
An alternative universe where Cameron scores a big win in 2015, there is no Brexit vote, Trump doesn't win in 2016, Cameron hands over to Gove who wins in 2020/21, and again currently, Badenoch the heir apparent.
She is the last of the 50/50 men/women shortlist Cameron modernizing drive.
So, she's leader now, but in a world that is never going to suit her brand of politics, where Brexit happened, then Trump, then the toxic effects of the left IDentarian culture war, COVID/lockdowns, Ukraine/Gaza.
As we go into a post-liberal world of Trump Putin Xi spheres of influence, British and European elites politicians totally lost, Badenoch seems out of time, both in the wrong era as Tory leader, and nowhere near enough time to create an alternative narrative to vote positively for her.

I disagree and polling shows many do too. On personal ratings she’s going up past the men.

The pale, male, stale looks tired.