Mumsnetters voting Reform

[Illjustplayostrich]

Mumsnet mothers have always leaned Labour. Now Reform is ahead

https://www.thetimes.com/article/dbd39087-465c-4587-9eaa-292606ffb775?shareToken=a99daa444e8bc0f9444cca2bf01f3851

I'm slightly startled by this. I'm a centrist, slightly more right leaning perhaps but frankly I'm open to any government who will get a firm grip on the public finances and go about growing the economy in a sustainable way. My impression of this site is that it's definitely more left leaning and and Reform enthusiasts tend to get shouted down. Personally, I think we should be talking about them a lot more as it's highly likely they will form part of the next government.

My impression is that they are promising the earth but don't have people with the necessary skill set to make that happen. I really worry that they will get voted in and find out that they can't fix all the problems within 18 months, leading to yet more disillusionment amongst voters.

I suspect if Musk doesn't relent, eyeballs Starmer until the PM blinks, then the likes of Davey especially, and Polanski, will make this a hot button political topic, promising to ban X on Day One of a LD, Green govt, certainly to make this move a prerequisite of coalition support for Labour wrt a potential hung parliament.
It'll be like the Online Safety Act argument on steroids, drawing clear turquoise water to Reform.
I kinda agree that voters would gravitate to Davey Polanski on this, for the first time Farage's natural inclination to Trump Musk would be electorally costly.
Not sure where Badenoch would fall.
Further culture war polarisation, Davey Polanski as true believers in TWAW, no inclination to expose the truth on grooming gangs, no real interest in women's issues, see a wedge issue re Musk and Grok AI porn, in their own way as guilty of being culture warriors as much as they decry this in Farage and Badenoch.

The issue is that what some of Grok generated is CSAM. Musk could turn that functionality off. CSAM is not a free speech issue, and tying these things together is wrong imo.

Musk is presumably testing the limits of his liability by not altering Grok’s function to remove CSAM capacity. And the question is where his liability stops. Grok is something he controls.

Its not up to Starmer, its up to Ofcom... they are the regulator.

Badenoch wants to ban SM for 16yo's and younger, now that IS a free speech issue.
Esp as 16yo's will be able to vote, i assume Badenoch & Reform wont revoke that? hardly a vote winner.... so younger people will need access to SM.

Labour back ahead of the Cons in latest polling, wonder why? though all within margin of error.

Badenoch and Starmer absolutely should revoke 16-17s voting.

Tories and Labour hated equally, albeit somewhat different reasons.
Hence their similar position in the polls.

I hate all politicians right now. Completely disenfranchised. I can see bits of ideas I approve but no appealing narrative. Sometimes Starmer says something and I do think he wants to wants to be the good guy, but his party hates all business, even the small ones, who are working for themselves on labour rates a fraction above NMW.

My diagnosis of where we've gone wrong allies with Reform's Grand Restoration plans, and Badenoch's promise to refashion Net Zero and absolutely prioritise business.
My hope is for a reasonably balanced Reform Tory coalition after the GE.
IMHO, the task is on a par with 1979, made worse by the Blair legal state paralysing this country.
Remember which PM proudly brought the Gender Recognition Act in, to zero fanfare or introspection.

I don't think I am optimistic enough to hope for anything any longer. I just don't want to be dedged into the sludge.

250k young, aspirational Brits left in the last year.
250k!!!!
If that increases, we have no country left.
No way Starmer and Labour have any answer.
Davey and Polanski even less.
I pray the remaining intelligent brains left at the Tory Party and Reform are brainstorming this problem.

More than half of those emigrating left for the the EU. To get more granular, the most popular country (rather than continent) to emigrate to was lefty-greeny-liberal Spain. America was the next most popular destination but the specific states that were most popular were lefty hell holes California and New York. After that it's France and Australia and Germany. So I'm not sure why Reform and the Tories would have the answers to stopping this. Since young people in particular are generally moving to countries that have more economically left wing policies than the UK. (It's almost as if investing in public services makes countries nicer places to live. Gosh.) Meanwhile, it also looks like leaving the EU wasn't such a bright idea as since the Brexit vote emmigration to there has risen year on year and it seems most people who leave the UK for other countries still chose to live there over anywhere else. So not the crumbling authoritarian basket case Farage claimed it was. Again, it's almost as if leaving the EU damaged the prospects for young people in this country. But that was just project fear right?

I'm at heart a Brexiter, but I can't deny you may very well be right.

I know people who voted for Brexit while accepting that there would be a strong economic hit. However, they argued that it would be worth it because sovereignty, their personal concerns over overreach by the EU parliament etc were more important. I can respect that. It's not always just about the economy actually.

But, if people are prepared to take an economic hit for Brexit, then they need to accept the economic hit. Blaming it immediately on immigration, and then benefits claimants, and then mismanagement by Labour is extremely deceitful. And that's really what Farage is doing. Maybe economic/political mismanagement is making things worse. But growing the UK economy while outside the European Common Market (our largest trade partner) will always be an uphill struggle. Especially with economic headwinds coming from the rest of the world. It's not all doom and gloom. But Farage is the last person I would trust to fix the UKs problems since every single thing he has publically campaigned for has weakened the UK. And every time he just jumps onto the next thing and pretends it's nothing to do with him.

Spain are fairly unhappy with their migration situation anyway, Vox is going up in support.

Since it's the most popular destination for British people we are very much part of the problem there.

Maybe I was naive, but I thought Brexit would lead to a revolution in not depending on immigration for core jobs like care work, hospitality, building, even agri.
I really thought we'd create a whole new care sector, making care work a professionally qualified career, and sort the funding for the sector.
Alongside that, a real move to automation to cut out the need for some of the most menial work requiring a ton of low paid migrants (fruit & veg picking).
And critically rejoining Switzerland, Norway and Iceland in a beefed-up EEA/EFTA high standards trade bloc but minus the red tape and free movement components of EU membership.
Yes, I realize none of that was promised, and I was naive to expect anything quite so focussed at this.
Maybe if all the parties had pulled together more in the wake of the result, there'd have been unanimity on some of these things.
However the moment it was apparent early on Johnson wasn't going to boost us in EFTA, because of politics, I knew Brexit would be under an immediate impediment.
I voted Remain, btw.
If rejoining the EU meant a pivot more to Poland, the Baltics, Holland, Italy, and away from France and Germany, I'd almost be tempted to Rejoin.

Not naive maybe just waiting for the £350 million a week to materialise which good ol' Nigel said was a mistake just hours after the Referendum results were declared.
But we won't talk about that eh.

In fairness before the vote Farage and people in UKIP were holding up countries like Switzerland as an example of how we could be manage a post Brexit world. I think that would have been better but it would also have meant making concessions to the EU to get it. Immediately after the vote Farage (and some conservatives) pivoted to campaigning for a hard Brexit. The Norway option was suddenly a betrayal of the Brexit vote.
I know all politicians lie but he is so fundamentally dishonest its on another scale. And he gets away with it in a way no other politician does.
Countries like the Netherlands have a very intensive farming sector with a lot of automation but within the EU. Although they do also use migrant labour in that sector. I think we could automate more for fruit and veg etc.

Not sure anyone believed that figure literally, more it was a direction of travel.
Or maybe I'm rewriting history.
Tbh, if I was Starmer, I'd be seriously considering a pivot to vote to Rejoin, in concert with the other left parties, alongside electoral reform, and reform to party funding, to absolutely delineate from the right parties.
If not, Reform win, things fail further, I wonder if it'll be the Tories who become the first party to propose Rejoin for the GE after?
The Tories are ruthless shape shifters, if they are seriously sidelined by Reform and the One Nations predominate, this would be their way back t.reiebamce.
Caveat, who the Hell knows what the world will look like in mid 2030s?

Nobody believed that figure?

More it was a direction of travel? What does that even mean? except it was plastered on the side of a bus.

Sorry, I'm being a bit coy, lol.
Yes, I'm sure it was taken literally.

Best not to talk about I guess.

There hasn't really been a significant uptake in young people leaving the UK, its been a gradual drain for decades.
I guess it was previously balanced by young EU citizens coming here to work in hi end industry, science and research... that is no longer is the case.

Once a right is given, extremely hard to remove it, taking away the vote from 16/17yo's would be electorally disasterous.

Any party promising that in a manifesto, automatically loses their vote.

I do agree on your views on what Labour should do, a 5 party election, cannot be done under FPTP, crazy... and defo yes to SM/CU, aim to rejoin.... all have significant support in the country, around 58% to Rejoin, remember Reform is on between 25% to 30%.

Actually, you can't be sure of that, no one can. This is the first time accurate figures on immigration have been published. And they're worse than anyone expected.

That cuts both ways, if you didn't know the previous numbers, you cannot say whether the current ones are worse or not.....

All i know is my experience and that of my DD who works in the NHS, almost all the EU workers have gone, same with carers and in nursing homes, factories, construction, trades...

However, i did hear recently that Trump defunding medical research esp on Vaccines, has seen a large influx of US researchers coming here and less UK ones going to the US.