Mumsnetters voting Reform

[Illjustplayostrich]

Mumsnet mothers have always leaned Labour. Now Reform is ahead

https://www.thetimes.com/article/dbd39087-465c-4587-9eaa-292606ffb775?shareToken=a99daa444e8bc0f9444cca2bf01f3851

I'm slightly startled by this. I'm a centrist, slightly more right leaning perhaps but frankly I'm open to any government who will get a firm grip on the public finances and go about growing the economy in a sustainable way. My impression of this site is that it's definitely more left leaning and and Reform enthusiasts tend to get shouted down. Personally, I think we should be talking about them a lot more as it's highly likely they will form part of the next government.

My impression is that they are promising the earth but don't have people with the necessary skill set to make that happen. I really worry that they will get voted in and find out that they can't fix all the problems within 18 months, leading to yet more disillusionment amongst voters.

Given the number of people the tories and labour have weaned into benefits it a good proportion of all party voters who are on benefits. I have more faith in Reform making a change than labour who have already tried and failed to make the changes they promised.

Yes, but they have to get into power first.

If their manifesto says they are going to go hard after benefits, that will turn a lot of their supporters off.

The Times did some analysis of this conundrum and concluded it is going to be an issue for Reform.

One of the times their support fell was when they announced lifting the two child cap. Many of their voters don’t want that.

That's one of the reasons the country is skewed through. Both the Tories and Labour have given benefits to so many people that voting for any party that is going to sort our the problem is the like turkey's voting for Christmas. Most people put their self interest of getting the handouts ahead of the benefit of the country.

I can't see Streeting or Burnham or whoever will be prime minister next year sorting it out. If Kemi can take on enough reform policies and be bold enough she might be able to pull it off.

Yes, they don't believe in climate change.

China produces many times more Green Energy per capita than we do in the UK... why do you think that might be?

What are basing your belief that the majority of these 560k jobs are costing us a fortune and producing very little?

This sounds more like Trump speak...

Thank you. Comparing me to President Trump is the greatest compliment you could give me.

This is the analysis from The Times:

Sure, I would expect at the time of the GE that Reform's messaging will be unequivocally gender critical. Certainly Labour are providing so many own goals in this area, the cover that Streeting provided Starmer before the GE is now totally blown.
And my mind is drawn back to the two years of Sunak, where women's and kid's rights could have been locked down not leaving Labour any room for equivocation, but totally squandered by the Tories.
And much as I'm a fan of Badenoch for her role in stopping the party and thus govt becoming pro-Self ID, she was as useless as the rest of that party in particularly getting the NHS to shed it's workery re trans inclusive language, taking serious action after the Tavistock scandal reveal.
As with all things Tory Party, they're being asleep at the wheel and arrogantly diffident on major social change in the country (allowing trans ideology full rein, the Boriswave, setting up asylum hotels, kicking off the tendency to permanent mental health benefits culture for hundreds of thousands of youth) prevents me and likely millions of other former Tory voters returning to them.
Enter centre stage Reform...

I think people are considering Reform despite the fact they don’t have experience or a fully coherent plan because Labour and the Tories have been happy to he in office but not in power.

People are upset about all sorts of things that seem to be spinning out of control; the two major parties just shrug and tell them there is nothing they can do because…civil service, ECHR, judges, quangos etc. say no.

Reform has some swagger and gives the impression they would actually wield some power, make some decisions- make an impact.

I am sceptical that they would make an impact, but I think this is what is driving voters. I think this is driving the Trump phenomenon too. To be fair, Trump is doing…stuff.

Reform’s Richard Tice’s own property companies invested in green energy despite his ‘net stupid’ rhetoric - it’s almost as if they’re sponsored by the fossil fuel industry to take a public political line, whilst also privately benefiting from the policies they’re speaking out against.

Do you include pensioners in that?

Lol... no, not you but Reform policies, i don't know your stance, only that you back Reform.

No they don't. They've even said so. Making stuff up and believing it to be true is bonkers.😀

Is "Gen X Soccer Moms" a category in the UK?
Because I saw recent polling that confirms they're moving in large numbers to Reform.
All I know is that together with Hispanics, these moms got Trump over the line, and they may be hugely significant here at the next GE.
Crime, their kids struggling to afford housing/start a family, old age care unaffordable, the institutional capture by trans activism, etc.
Fertile territory for Farage amongst these women.

Reform have 30% support among Gen X, 20% among Gen Z female voters....

Right now, in an atomised FPTP system, with 6-8 parties competing (when you incl SNP and Plaid), but only 2 of those on the Right, 30% for Reform at the GE could get them a very handy majority.
Just think that a decade ago, UKIP likely scored less than 5-10% of women and young voters.
So if today Gen X women are 30% pro Reform and Gen Z women are 20%, that's already 4x the number of women polling actively happy voting for Farage today than did vote a decade ago.
Add that to the reliable numbers of men likely to vote Reform, critically including Gen Z ones, and you have the basis of a serious upset in 2029.

Fortunately pensioners do then to vote for the greater good, which is why they have traditionally voted in higher numbers for the Tories and now moving to reform.

Who's going to be the first party to propose abolishing the Triple Lock on state pensions? Lol.

Its not a category that exists specifically, but I know what you mean. I would be in that cohort if it existed.
All of the issues you listed are very live with many of us with dc about to launch. All discussed regularly amongst my friends, and you're right, it is fertile territory for Reform.
Your point could explain the increase in support for Reform on MN, as per the OP.

30% or a bit over can do it. Any party that gets that would be happy rn

Absolutely. I'd be a Gen X Soccer Mom if I wasn't a Boomer Non Soccer Loving Male Non Parent, lol.

I imagine Reform voting pensioners are in for rather a shock if Reform are elected.

I think people are more shocked that after voting for change in a campaign based on change, Labour are doing the same old same old. Starmer told us we needed change - we just didn't realise he meant change for higher unemployment and putting the brakes on the economy.

Labour in full control. They to start coming up with some ideas for improvement so that we aren't all looking for an alternative.

Tell that to Reeves!

The calibre of Reform MPs right now:

Sarah Pochin to Al Carns: Would the Minister himself join the British army today?

Al Carns: No, I'd join the Royal Marines

0/10 Pochin.