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What’s happening in Venezuela and what does it mean?

911 replies

theotherfossilsister · 03/01/2026 07:47

I’m confused- has the US gone to war with them? What are the implications if so?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
49
TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 15:58

EasternStandard · 03/01/2026 15:55

I think a lot of this is to do with the rise of China and where the fault lines lie in terms of power. What would people do about China?

Doesn’t take long before countries start using their own systems amongst themselves. In South Africa we stumbled when the Swift payment system stopped transacting with Russia. Our banks have recently adopted the Chinese CIPs system so problem averted…

It really is going to become a divided world.

StandFirm · 03/01/2026 15:58

For whatever it was worth, there was a fragile international order which has now been entirely thrown into the bin. I really wonder where that will take us.

EasternStandard · 03/01/2026 15:58

StandFirm · 03/01/2026 15:57

That's a real issue.
One of the potential consequences of this intervention in Venezuela though is China feeling entirely justified in the full takeover of Taiwan.

Maybe. But all this is the US trying to counter where China will be soon. Politics is reshaping and some heavy coalitions are forming.

What is the best plan to deal with that?

StrawberryShieldsForever · 03/01/2026 15:58

Just a few things to keep in mind here:

*International law isn’t real

*the ‘rules-based international order’ was never real

*nobody gives AF about Maduro, they just hate Trump

*if you don’t have actual power, you can’t do anything in this world. crying about what other countries do is pathetic

Ilovelifeverymuch · 03/01/2026 16:03

Sideorderofchips · 03/01/2026 09:26

Just seen the update on sky news. So trump has bombed venezuela and kidnapped its leader...

Leader is stretching it 😂

The true winner of the election was María Corina Machado the opposition leader who has been in hiding for a while now due to Maduro trying to arrest and kill her.

While I have concerns about the US pushing regime change, I couldn't give a rats ass about Maduro, he's an evil dictator.

And hopefully the fall of Maduro also leads to the collapse of the Cuban regime who depend on Venezuela for funds and oil.

Also people keep saying it's about oil, I think it's about China not oil. If a war broke out between the US and China which may happen over Taiwan, Venezuela will obviously side with China which means an adversary is close to US shores.

If you follow the US foreign policy closely especially with NATO, the whole point is to refocus to Asia and you can also see the Trump policy with Japan supporting their rebuilding if their military after the constraints placed from WWII.

StandFirm · 03/01/2026 16:04

EasternStandard · 03/01/2026 15:58

Maybe. But all this is the US trying to counter where China will be soon. Politics is reshaping and some heavy coalitions are forming.

What is the best plan to deal with that?

China is already influential in LatAm, much more than the US was willing to tolerate.
I fear it's taking us nowhere good.
As for a plan, it depends if you're talking about Europe or the US. For Trump, it's all about showing force and 'reclaiming' influence. Not subtle. Not diplomatic, just brutish as per the usual style. What this means for Europe is a deeply uncomfortable seat in the middle of the whirlpool between those blocs being formed. It's telling that our government has been very quiet so far. My guess is that Europe (including us to a large extent) will try and play a fairly neutral hand for as long as it can whilst ramping up defences will be crucial. Defence and tech go hand in hand but it takes money that indebted European states tend not to have so it really is a catch 22.

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 16:05

StandFirm · 03/01/2026 16:04

China is already influential in LatAm, much more than the US was willing to tolerate.
I fear it's taking us nowhere good.
As for a plan, it depends if you're talking about Europe or the US. For Trump, it's all about showing force and 'reclaiming' influence. Not subtle. Not diplomatic, just brutish as per the usual style. What this means for Europe is a deeply uncomfortable seat in the middle of the whirlpool between those blocs being formed. It's telling that our government has been very quiet so far. My guess is that Europe (including us to a large extent) will try and play a fairly neutral hand for as long as it can whilst ramping up defences will be crucial. Defence and tech go hand in hand but it takes money that indebted European states tend not to have so it really is a catch 22.

As a matter of interest which countries have responded to condemn or support? Just Russia?

dottiehens · 03/01/2026 16:06

38thparallel · 03/01/2026 15:45

No. Venezuelans go to neighbouring South American countries or Spain. Most of them bring valuable skills with them and make a useful contribution.

Maybe those who fled the Maduro regime will be able to return now.

They will return to their country. Before the regime Venezuela was in a much better place. There was inequality but nothing like it is now. Maduro and co are very corrupted and indeed involved in drug trafficking. This is the way to extract him from Venezuela put him in jail.
Maria Corina being placed by the US is a lie. Anyone really following the situation for years would know this. She has always being in opposition.
There are a lot of misinformation and an agenda in this treat. Perhaps the original poster should clarify if she wanted another daily Trump bash treat or if the point of it is to discuss Venezuela”s next steps. I am pretty sure that the millions of people suffering for 27 years of this dictatorship deserve to be supported in a day like this. The Venezuelan government is not legitimate and is time to let Democracy be restored. Whether people want to be in the right side of history or not is up to them. For facts follow the main news sources.
i will not come back because is full of lies and misinformation.

notimagain · 03/01/2026 16:07

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 15:48

Does Venezuela even have the ability to retaliate?

Not really...relatvely light weight armed forces and in any event the US has had naval and air assets patrolling north of the coast since mid.Nov.

(BTW trivial in the larger scheme of things I know but a few Barbados bound flights from the UK and possibly from elsewhere have had to turn back this PM due to the ATC situation).

StandFirm · 03/01/2026 16:08

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 16:05

As a matter of interest which countries have responded to condemn or support? Just Russia?

I think the usual suspects so far (Russia, Cuba, Iran and concerns over international law coming from the EU)

EasternStandard · 03/01/2026 16:09

StandFirm · 03/01/2026 16:04

China is already influential in LatAm, much more than the US was willing to tolerate.
I fear it's taking us nowhere good.
As for a plan, it depends if you're talking about Europe or the US. For Trump, it's all about showing force and 'reclaiming' influence. Not subtle. Not diplomatic, just brutish as per the usual style. What this means for Europe is a deeply uncomfortable seat in the middle of the whirlpool between those blocs being formed. It's telling that our government has been very quiet so far. My guess is that Europe (including us to a large extent) will try and play a fairly neutral hand for as long as it can whilst ramping up defences will be crucial. Defence and tech go hand in hand but it takes money that indebted European states tend not to have so it really is a catch 22.

China is playing the long game and well. They are economically active in many countries with resources. This was done through buying and investment more than anything.

They also have vast military and AI capability and resources so best case is a benign system, not the opposite. I don’t automatically assume they will be peaceful or not peaceful, and find discussion a bit frustrating and opaque on that, but I will say the west not taking their capability seriously enough to counter is a mistake.

EasternEcho · 03/01/2026 16:09

mummymeister · 03/01/2026 13:05

he doesnt need a pretext. he will just make one up. this has nothing to do with drugs. nothing at all. its all about oil. thats all he cares about.

He's already got one. He says Greenland is necessary for protecting US security interests in the Arctic. He uses the same one for Canada. US security interests is the broad pretext for everything, including drugs.

cassie2and2 · 03/01/2026 16:12

Seems Trump has kidnapped Maduro and his wife, why then hasn't he given orders to kidnapped Putin?

BelleHathor · 03/01/2026 16:15

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 15:37

Sanctions are not new. Economic pressure is inevitably what lead to the collapse of apartheid in South Africa. Moral condemnation generally comes first, then economic pressures in the form of sanctions. Unfortunately most dictatorships seem to thrive under the deprivation of their own people and seem to have other equally despicable regimes which support their survival and sanctions dont then have the desired effect for a change.

Absolutely, Sanctions helped destroy the Apartheid regime in South Africa which was arguably a moral and good thing to do.

The problem is that they have been used excessively in situations where there is no moral reason to do so and they should only be used as a tool as last resort. Instead they are used to "impose" the will of America and it allies ignoring the sovereignty and the will of the people in sanctioned countries and causing untold pain to ordinary civilians.

Good Analysis here on Trump's motivations, keep in mind that America currently has a debt of $32 Trillion dollars:

The real reason the US is invading Venezuela goes back to a deal Henry Kissinger made with Saudi Arabia in 1974.

And I'm going to explain why this is actually about the SURVIVAL of the US dollar itself.

Not drugs. Not terrorism. Not "democracy."

This is about the petrodollar system that has kept America the dominant economic power for 50 years.

And Venezuela just threatened to end it.

Here's what really just happened:

Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.

The largest on Earth.

More than Saudi Arabia.

20% of the entire world's oil.

But here's the part that matters:

Venezuela was actively selling that oil in Chinese yuan. Not dollars.

In 2018, Venezuela announced it would "free itself from the dollar."

They started accepting yuan, euros, rubles, anything BUT dollars for oil.

They were petitioning to join BRICS.

They were building direct payment channels with China that bypass SWIFT entirely.

And they were sitting on enough oil to fund de-dollarization for decades.

Why does this matter?

Because the entire American financial system is built on one thing:

The petrodollar.

In 1974, Henry Kissinger made a deal with Saudi Arabia:

All oil sold globally must be priced in US dollars.

In exchange, America provides military protection.

This single agreement created artificial demand for dollars worldwide.

Every country on Earth needs dollars to buy oil.

This lets America print unlimited money while other countries work for it.

It funds the military. The welfare state. The deficit spending.

The petrodollar is more important to US hegemony than aircraft carriers.

And there's a pattern of what happens to leaders who challenge it:

2000: Saddam Hussein announces Iraq will sell oil in euros instead of dollars.

2003: Invaded. Regime change. Iraq's oil immediately switched back to dollars. Saddam lynched.

The WMDs were never found because they never existed.

2009: Gaddafi proposes a gold-backed African currency called the "gold dinar" for oil trade.

Hillary Clinton's own leaked emails confirm this was the PRIMARY reason for intervention.

Email quote: "This gold was intended to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden Dinar."

2011: NATO bombs Libya. Gaddafi sodomized and murdered. Libya now has open slave markets.

"We came, we saw, he died!" Clinton laughed on camera.

The gold dinar died with him.

And now Maduro.

With FIVE TIMES more oil than Saddam and Gaddafi combined.

Actively selling in yuan.

Building payment systems outside dollar control.

Petitioning to join BRICS.

Partnered with China, Russia, and Iran.

The three countries leading global de-dollarization.

This isn't coincidence.

Challenge the petrodollar. Get regime changed.

Every. Single. Time.

Stephen Miller (US homeland security advisor) literally said it out loud two weeks ago:

"American sweat, ingenuity and toil created the oil industry in Venezuela. Its tyrannical expropriation was the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property."

He's not hiding it.

They're claiming Venezuelan oil BELONGS to America because US companies developed it 100 years ago.

By this logic, every nationalized resource in history was "theft."

But here's the DEEPER problem:

The petrodollar is already dying.

Russia sells oil in rubles and yuan since Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia is openly discussing yuan settlements.

Iran has been trading in non-dollar currencies for years.

China built CIPS, their own alternative to SWIFT with 4,800 banks in 185 countries.

BRICS is actively building payment systems that bypass the dollar entirely.

The mBridge project lets central banks settle trades instantly in local currencies.

Venezuela joining BRICS with 303 billion barrels of oil would accelerate this exponentially.

That's what this invasion is really about.

Not stopping drugs. Venezuela accounts for less than 1% of US cocaine.

Not terrorism. There's zero evidence Maduro runs a "terror organization."

Not democracy. The US supports Saudi Arabia, which has zero elections.

This is about maintaining a 50-year-old agreement that lets America print money while the world works for it.

And the consequences are terrifying:

Russia, China, and Iran are already denouncing this as "armed aggression."

China is Venezuela's biggest oil customer. They're losing billions.

BRICS nations are watching a country get invaded for trading outside the dollar.

Every nation considering de-dollarization just got the message:

Challenge the dollar and we will bomb you.

But here's the problem...

That message might accelerate de-dollarization, not stop it.

Because now every country in the Global South knows what happens if you threaten dollar hegemony.

And they're realizing the only protection is to move FASTER.

The timing is insane too:

January 3rd, 2026. Venezuela invaded. Maduro captured.

January 3rd, 1990. Panama invaded. Noriega captured.

36 years apart. Almost to the day.

Same playbook. Same "drug trafficking" excuse.

Same real reason: control of strategic resources and trade routes.

History doesn't repeat. But it rhymes.

What happens next:

Trump's press conference at Mar-a-Lago sets the narrative.

US oil companies are already lined up. Politico reported they've been approached about "returning to Venezuela."

The opposition will be installed. Oil will flow in dollars again.

Venezuela becomes another Iraq. Another Libya.

But here's what nobody's asking:

What happens when you can no longer bomb your way to dollar dominance?

When China has enough economic leverage to retaliate?

When BRICS controls 40% of global GDP and says "no more dollars"?

When the world realizes the petrodollar is maintained by violence?

America just showed its hand.

The question is whether the rest of the world folds or calls the bluff.

Because this invasion is an admission that the dollar can no longer compete on its own merits.

When you have to bomb countries to keep them using your currency, the currency is already dying.

Venezuela isn't the beginning.

It's the desperate end.

Happyjoe · 03/01/2026 16:15

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 14:54

Charged with drug offences. I assume this is how he gets around the rules surrounding war. Congress doesn’t need to approve the arresting of each and every criminal.

Edited

Are countries in the world allowed to go into another country, and kidnap the leaders on drugs charges?
What about bomb boats, that he presumes are carrying drugs, killing most on board without due process?

Scary.

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 16:15

EasternEcho · 03/01/2026 16:09

He's already got one. He says Greenland is necessary for protecting US security interests in the Arctic. He uses the same one for Canada. US security interests is the broad pretext for everything, including drugs.

Edited

Still not likely since neither Canada or Greenland need to be saved from a dictatorship. This is the only pretext that really keeps the rest of the world guessing about his true intentions. You cannot just invade Canada on the grounds of national security, this would not fly and even Trump is sane enough to know this. Seems a theory a bit too far fetched even though he would probably like to execute this but only in his dreams.

notimagain · 03/01/2026 16:17

cassie2and2 · 03/01/2026 16:12

Seems Trump has kidnapped Maduro and his wife, why then hasn't he given orders to kidnapped Putin?

Even if POTUS wanted to order it kidnapping Putin would be several orders of magnitude more difficult to kidnap than Maduro anf would definitely mean US casualties..

Happyjoe · 03/01/2026 16:18

notimagain · 03/01/2026 16:17

Even if POTUS wanted to order it kidnapping Putin would be several orders of magnitude more difficult to kidnap than Maduro anf would definitely mean US casualties..

In a nutshell. He cannot bully Putin without a hell of a mess.

EasternEcho · 03/01/2026 16:20

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 16:15

Still not likely since neither Canada or Greenland need to be saved from a dictatorship. This is the only pretext that really keeps the rest of the world guessing about his true intentions. You cannot just invade Canada on the grounds of national security, this would not fly and even Trump is sane enough to know this. Seems a theory a bit too far fetched even though he would probably like to execute this but only in his dreams.

Let's hope so. History shows us that thinking that this is as far as he'll go, and won't just invade without a good reason, turned out to be dangerous complacency. . The problem is that there's nothing and no one to really stop the US from doing so if they so wish. I don't think it will happen, but with the US as it is currently, who knows.

BelleHathor · 03/01/2026 16:21

cassie2and2 · 03/01/2026 16:12

Seems Trump has kidnapped Maduro and his wife, why then hasn't he given orders to kidnapped Putin?

Nukes, it seems to protect yourself from Trump's hegemony you need Nukes.

EasternStandard · 03/01/2026 16:22

BelleHathor · 03/01/2026 16:21

Nukes, it seems to protect yourself from Trump's hegemony you need Nukes.

Are there other hegemonies that concern you?

BelleHathor · 03/01/2026 16:23

EasternStandard · 03/01/2026 16:22

Are there other hegemonies that concern you?

None that are acting as the "World Police".....

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 16:23

BelleHathor · 03/01/2026 16:15

Absolutely, Sanctions helped destroy the Apartheid regime in South Africa which was arguably a moral and good thing to do.

The problem is that they have been used excessively in situations where there is no moral reason to do so and they should only be used as a tool as last resort. Instead they are used to "impose" the will of America and it allies ignoring the sovereignty and the will of the people in sanctioned countries and causing untold pain to ordinary civilians.

Good Analysis here on Trump's motivations, keep in mind that America currently has a debt of $32 Trillion dollars:

The real reason the US is invading Venezuela goes back to a deal Henry Kissinger made with Saudi Arabia in 1974.

And I'm going to explain why this is actually about the SURVIVAL of the US dollar itself.

Not drugs. Not terrorism. Not "democracy."

This is about the petrodollar system that has kept America the dominant economic power for 50 years.

And Venezuela just threatened to end it.

Here's what really just happened:

Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.

The largest on Earth.

More than Saudi Arabia.

20% of the entire world's oil.

But here's the part that matters:

Venezuela was actively selling that oil in Chinese yuan. Not dollars.

In 2018, Venezuela announced it would "free itself from the dollar."

They started accepting yuan, euros, rubles, anything BUT dollars for oil.

They were petitioning to join BRICS.

They were building direct payment channels with China that bypass SWIFT entirely.

And they were sitting on enough oil to fund de-dollarization for decades.

Why does this matter?

Because the entire American financial system is built on one thing:

The petrodollar.

In 1974, Henry Kissinger made a deal with Saudi Arabia:

All oil sold globally must be priced in US dollars.

In exchange, America provides military protection.

This single agreement created artificial demand for dollars worldwide.

Every country on Earth needs dollars to buy oil.

This lets America print unlimited money while other countries work for it.

It funds the military. The welfare state. The deficit spending.

The petrodollar is more important to US hegemony than aircraft carriers.

And there's a pattern of what happens to leaders who challenge it:

2000: Saddam Hussein announces Iraq will sell oil in euros instead of dollars.

2003: Invaded. Regime change. Iraq's oil immediately switched back to dollars. Saddam lynched.

The WMDs were never found because they never existed.

2009: Gaddafi proposes a gold-backed African currency called the "gold dinar" for oil trade.

Hillary Clinton's own leaked emails confirm this was the PRIMARY reason for intervention.

Email quote: "This gold was intended to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden Dinar."

2011: NATO bombs Libya. Gaddafi sodomized and murdered. Libya now has open slave markets.

"We came, we saw, he died!" Clinton laughed on camera.

The gold dinar died with him.

And now Maduro.

With FIVE TIMES more oil than Saddam and Gaddafi combined.

Actively selling in yuan.

Building payment systems outside dollar control.

Petitioning to join BRICS.

Partnered with China, Russia, and Iran.

The three countries leading global de-dollarization.

This isn't coincidence.

Challenge the petrodollar. Get regime changed.

Every. Single. Time.

Stephen Miller (US homeland security advisor) literally said it out loud two weeks ago:

"American sweat, ingenuity and toil created the oil industry in Venezuela. Its tyrannical expropriation was the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property."

He's not hiding it.

They're claiming Venezuelan oil BELONGS to America because US companies developed it 100 years ago.

By this logic, every nationalized resource in history was "theft."

But here's the DEEPER problem:

The petrodollar is already dying.

Russia sells oil in rubles and yuan since Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia is openly discussing yuan settlements.

Iran has been trading in non-dollar currencies for years.

China built CIPS, their own alternative to SWIFT with 4,800 banks in 185 countries.

BRICS is actively building payment systems that bypass the dollar entirely.

The mBridge project lets central banks settle trades instantly in local currencies.

Venezuela joining BRICS with 303 billion barrels of oil would accelerate this exponentially.

That's what this invasion is really about.

Not stopping drugs. Venezuela accounts for less than 1% of US cocaine.

Not terrorism. There's zero evidence Maduro runs a "terror organization."

Not democracy. The US supports Saudi Arabia, which has zero elections.

This is about maintaining a 50-year-old agreement that lets America print money while the world works for it.

And the consequences are terrifying:

Russia, China, and Iran are already denouncing this as "armed aggression."

China is Venezuela's biggest oil customer. They're losing billions.

BRICS nations are watching a country get invaded for trading outside the dollar.

Every nation considering de-dollarization just got the message:

Challenge the dollar and we will bomb you.

But here's the problem...

That message might accelerate de-dollarization, not stop it.

Because now every country in the Global South knows what happens if you threaten dollar hegemony.

And they're realizing the only protection is to move FASTER.

The timing is insane too:

January 3rd, 2026. Venezuela invaded. Maduro captured.

January 3rd, 1990. Panama invaded. Noriega captured.

36 years apart. Almost to the day.

Same playbook. Same "drug trafficking" excuse.

Same real reason: control of strategic resources and trade routes.

History doesn't repeat. But it rhymes.

What happens next:

Trump's press conference at Mar-a-Lago sets the narrative.

US oil companies are already lined up. Politico reported they've been approached about "returning to Venezuela."

The opposition will be installed. Oil will flow in dollars again.

Venezuela becomes another Iraq. Another Libya.

But here's what nobody's asking:

What happens when you can no longer bomb your way to dollar dominance?

When China has enough economic leverage to retaliate?

When BRICS controls 40% of global GDP and says "no more dollars"?

When the world realizes the petrodollar is maintained by violence?

America just showed its hand.

The question is whether the rest of the world folds or calls the bluff.

Because this invasion is an admission that the dollar can no longer compete on its own merits.

When you have to bomb countries to keep them using your currency, the currency is already dying.

Venezuela isn't the beginning.

It's the desperate end.

That’s quite a theory. Where have you extracted this from? Can anyone else add to this?

Im a South African and the BRICS narrative resonates with me. We are a tiny insignificant economy that has been tagged onto the end of this acronym for some strange reason when we have very little to add to any of this global power struggle.

EasternStandard · 03/01/2026 16:24

BelleHathor · 03/01/2026 16:23

None that are acting as the "World Police".....

Tbf Americans wanted that to stop. Aside from that any thoughts on Russia or China?

StrawberryShieldsForever · 03/01/2026 16:26

cassie2and2 · 03/01/2026 16:12

Seems Trump has kidnapped Maduro and his wife, why then hasn't he given orders to kidnapped Putin?

Monroe Doctrine basically