Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59

1000 replies

MagicFox · 17/10/2025 22:11

Well, it’s thread 59.

Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

OP posts:
Thread gallery
441
DuncinToffee · 06/01/2026 19:52

UK and France sign formal declaration of intent to put boots on ground in Ukraine in event of peace deal with Russia.

They would "operate on Ukrainian soil, securing Ukraine’s skies and seas and building an armed forces fit for the future".

US envoy Steve Witkoff confirms Donald Trump prepared to offer security guarantees Ukraine & its European allies are looking for.

“Those security protocols are meant to deter any attacks in Ukraine and, if there are any attacks, they are meant to defend… They’re as strong as anyone has ever seen.”

Lemonfrost · 06/01/2026 20:11

It all sounds great, but seeing is believing. We have to back this up with more than promises and signatures.

minsmum · 06/01/2026 20:18

Anything Trump promises is not worth the paper it is written on, he is currently threatening allies he has treaties with. He probably changes his mind more than his underwear

blueshoes · 07/01/2026 02:35

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-6-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. Ukrainian forces continued their long range strike campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure overnight on January 5 to 6.
  2. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with leaders of states in the Coalition of the Willing in Paris on January 6 to discuss possible security guarantees for post-war Ukraine.
  3. A German military document reportedly describes how Russia is using covert attacks against German infrastructure to prepare for a potential Russia-NATO war in the future, in line with ISW’s ongoing assessments.
  4. Russian forces recently advanced in the Siversk and Hulyaipole directions.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/01/2026 09:29

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Why Trump’s capture of Venezuela’s Maduro is both a blessing and a curse for Russia
(kyivindependent.com/why-trumps-capture-of-venezuelas-maduro-is-both-a-blessing-and-a-curse-for-russia/)
The U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, a Kremlin ally, is a blow to Russia’s influence in Latin America.
However, Russia may also derive some benefits from U.S. President Donald Trump’s unprovoked intervention.

⚡️ Zelensky, UK, France sign declaration (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-uk-france-sign-declaration-on-multinational-force-deployment-in-ukraine-post-war/) on multinational force deployment in Ukraine post-war.
The news comes as Zelensky met with European leaders and U.S. envoys in Paris to discuss security guarantees for Kyiv, part of Washington's renewed efforts to broker a peace deal with Moscow.

⚡️ Update: US to support ceasefire monitoring (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-paris-for-coalition-of-the-willing-meeting/) in Ukraine, Paris draft statement reportedly says.
According to AFP, the U.S. would also commit to "support" a European-led multinational force in Ukraine.

⚡️ Czechia's top diplomat to visit Ukraine as countries 'turn the page (kyivindependent.com/czech-foreign-minister-to-visit-ukraine-in-the-near-future/)' on parliament speaker's controversial remarks.
Petr Macinka, Czechia's new foreign minister, said he would visit Ukraine in the near future, local media reported on Jan. 6.

⚡️ Czech-led ammunition initiative (https://kyivindependent.com/czech-led-ammunition-initiative-for-ukraine-will-continue-babis-says/) for Ukraine will continue, Babis says.
"I have decided, even after consulting with coalition partners, that we will not disrupt the ammunition initiative. The project will continue, and the Czech Republic will be in the role of coordinator," Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis said on Jan. [great, this seemed to be in some doubt]

⚡️Ukraine war latest live (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2026-01-06/): Russia is arming Shahed-type drones with MANPADS heat-seeking missiles.

⚡️ Zelensky visits Cyprus (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-visits-cyprus-as-nicosias-eu-presidency-begins/) as Nicosia's EU presidency begins.

⚡️Russian oil depot (kyivindependent.com/russian-oil-refinery-in-belgorod-oblast-on-fire-after-ukrainian-drone-attack-official-claims/) in Belgorod Oblast on fire after Ukrainian drone attack, official claims.

⚡️'Explosions rang out all night' — SBU conducts fresh strikes (kyivindependent.com/sbu-conducts-fresh-strikes-on-ammo-depot-and-oil-facility-deep-inside-russia-source-says/) on ammunition depot and oil facility deep inside Russia, source says.

⚡️ Lithuania to review (kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-review-russian-oppositionists-residency-after-criticism-of-ukrainian-officials-anti-kremlin-commander/) Russian oppositionist's residency after criticism of Ukrainian officials, anti-Kremlin commander.
In a private message sent late December, Leonid Volkov welcomed the news of the apparent death of Denis Kapustin, the commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps, a right-wing militia made up of ethnic Russians fighting on Ukraine's side.
It was later revealed that Kapustin was alive and his death was faked by Ukraine.

'Embarrassing' — We asked 3 experts why Venezuela's Russian-supplied air defenses were AWOL
(kyivindependent.com/we-asked-3-experts-why-venezuelas-russian-supplied-air-defenses-were-so-abysmal/)
Of all the images that emerged from the U.S. military operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3, one of the most surreal was the sight of a fleet of American helicopters flying unchallenged over the skies of Caracas.
Venezuela's military is known to possess a significant number of Russian air defense systems including Buk-M2s and S-300VMs.
But on Jan.3, as U.S. forces swept into the country's capital and left with its leader, these Russian-made systems were nowhere to be seen.
The Kyiv Independent asked three defense experts how they thought this could happen.

Chart of the week: Lending boom suggests war is new normal for Ukrainians (kyivindependent.com/chart-of-the-week-lending-boom-suggests-war-is-new-normal-for-ukrainians/)
Ukrainians continued a borrowing spree in 2025, suggesting that households and companies are settling into a new normal as the country approaches the fifth year of Russia's full-scale invasion.
"Borrowing is up for the corporate sector, for small and medium enterprises, for big enterprises, for households — it is booming everywhere," economist Lazar Levchenko told the Kyiv Independent.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JAN 7, 2026
■ Engagements remain well above average, with more than 1,000 recorded casualties
■ Fewer equipment losses and no confirmed area change
■ Overnight 🇷🇺 attacks remain below average and include one Iskander-M; good interception rate
■ Considerable 🇷🇺 MLRS and air strikes, however; the 30-day 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 strike ratio rises slightly

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/01/2026 09:37

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia currently produces over 400 long-range drones daily, says Oleksandr Syrskyi.
According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russia has fulfilled 106% of its 2025 state order for long-range UAVs.
Syrskyi also noted that Russia plans to expand its unmanned systems forces:
“The Russians have followed our path and created separate unmanned systems forces, which already number 80,000 personnel. In the next phase, in 2026, they plan to double this to 165,500. By 2030, the number could reach almost 210,000.”

🇫🇷🇺🇦 Ukraine’s allies discussed the practical implementation of security guarantees in Paris.
The chiefs of general staff of the armed forces of France, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom, along with the commander of US forces in Europe, met in Paris.
They discussed security guarantees for Ukraine, focusing in particular on mechanisms for their practical implementation.

A special coordination center in the “US–Ukraine–Coalition of the Resolute” format will be established on the basis of the coalition’s operational headquarters in Paris. It will be responsible for security guarantees for Ukraine from Western allies, according to the draft declaration of the meeting of the “Coalition of the Resolute.”

🇳🇴 Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said Norway could contribute to an allied deterrence contingent in Ukraine as part of security guarantees, and that Norwegian instructors could also take part in training Ukrainian military personnel on Ukrainian territory.

The “Coalition of the Willing” has prepared a draft declaration stating that the United States should commit to supporting European coalition forces in the event of an attack on Ukraine, Radio Svoboda reports.
According to the draft, once a ceasefire comes into force in Ukraine, a system of guarantees is to be launched with five components:
▫️ participation in a ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism led by the United States;
▫️ support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
▫️ deployment of multinational forces in Ukraine;
▫️ commitments in the event of a future attack;
▫️ deepening defense cooperation with Ukraine.
Support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine would include:
▫️ financing weapons procurement;
▫️ support for the defense budget;
▫️ access to defense stockpiles for rapid reinforcement in case of a threat;
▫️ assistance in building defensive fortifications.
As for actions in the event of a renewed Russian attack, the document notes that there is no final agreement yet.
“We agreed to finalize binding commitments that will define our approach to supporting Ukraine and restoring peace and security in the event of a future armed attack by Russia,” the draft declaration says.

🇪🇺 European Council President António Costa announced the EU’s readiness to commit to a system of politically and legally binding guarantees that will be activated once a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war comes into force.

❗️ We want a ceasefire based on strong security guarantees, unlike the Minsk agreements of 2015, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.

🇺🇸 The U.S. Department of Defense, in partnership with Lockheed Martin, announced the signing of a historic framework agreement establishing a new transformational procurement model to expand the production and acquisition of munitions.
Under the agreement, Lockheed Martin will increase annual production of Patriot PAC-3 interceptors from around 600 to 2,000, aligning industrial capacity with long-term demand from U.S. forces, allies, and partner nations.

🇸🇪 Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Sweden is ready to provide Ukraine with Gripen fighter jets and resources for demining the Black Sea after a peace agreement with Russia is signed.

“We are working with BlackRock on a project for Ukraine’s future,” Whitkoff said.
“The goal is to create conditions in which people returning from the war can find work in their homeland. We consider this project extremely important for the Ukrainian people,” Trump’s envoy added.
BlackRock is the world’s largest American asset manager and investment giant, managing trillions of dollars.

🛢 India’s largest importer has abandoned Russian oil, Reuters reports.
India’s biggest private refiner, Reliance Industries, said it has not received Russian oil for the past three weeks and does not expect any deliveries in January.
The company denied reports that tankers carrying Russian oil were en route. This indicates that Russian oil imports to India could fall to their lowest levels in years. The statement follows a warning from Trump about a possible tariff hike.
According to Reuters, due to US and EU sanctions, Russian oil supplies to India had already dropped to a three-year low in December — about 1.2 million barrels per day, nearly 40% below the June peak. In January, volumes could fall below 1 million barrels per day, leaving China as the only major market for Russian oil.

A Polish man who traveled to Ukraine in 2023 to verify reports of Russia’s invasion was allegedly tortured to death in a Russian detention facility. (united24media.com/latest-news/polish-citizen-skeptical-of-war-in-ukraine-reportedly-died-under-torture-in-russian-custody-14801)
The individual, identified as Krzysztof Galos from Kraków, reportedly crossed into Ukraine in mid-April 2023. According to Gazeta Wyborcza, he was skeptical of news coverage about the war and decided (wyborcza.pl/7,75399,32497548,jezeli-zostal-pochowany-to-gdzie-msz-i-rodzina-polaka.html) to investigate the situation personally.
Surveillance footage later confirmed his vehicle was near the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. At some point, he entered territory controlled by Russian forces and was detained at a military checkpoint.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/01/2026 09:56

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

The Trump administration has not ruled out the use of military force to take control of Greenland, (www.kyivpost.com/post/67551) the White House said Tuesday, sending shockwaves across Europe as Kyiv’s allies meet in Paris.

Russia is struggling to service its Arctic ports, (www.kyivpost.com/post/67494) laying bare a widening gap between the Kremlin’s grand Arctic ambitions and its actual capabilities, Ukraine’s foreign intelligence says.

Ukrainian F-16 pilots are being forced to rewrite combat tactics on the fly (www.kyivpost.com/post/67505) as Western training proves ill-suited to the realities of the current war.
One pilot said the instruction was based on past conflicts fought by Ukraine’s partners and failed to account for the conditions they now face on the front lines.

Just weeks after Putin boasted that Kupyansk was “totally under Russian control,” Ukrainian troops are now pushing forward (www.kyivpost.com/post/67537) — retaking ground, clearing positions, and capturing Russian soldiers.

Poland is approaching the end of its special law on aid to Ukraine, (www.kyivpost.com/post/67580) in force since 2022. While the legislation will not be extended, officials stress this does not mean support for Ukraine or Ukrainians in Poland is coming to an end.

Kyiv Post Continues Support for the Children of Heroes💫
Ahead of the New Year, Kyiv Post joined the Christmas fundraiser supporting the Children of Heroes Charity Fund — an initiative helping Ukrainian children who have lost one or both parents because of Russia’s war.
As 2026 begins, we continue this support. There are THREE DAYS LEFT to help complete the fundraiser.
More than 15,000 children are currently under the Fund’s care.
Around 8,000 of them are still waiting for their Christmas gift — a toy, a book, a small gadget, or something meaningful they wrote about in their letters.
We cannot bring their loved ones back. But we can help bring back moments of childhood — warmth, care, and the feeling that they are not forgotten 🎁
Kyiv Post invites its readers to join the campaign and help ensure that the start of 2026 brings support and kindness to the Children of Heroes.
Read more about the initiative:
www.kyivpost.com/childrenheroes-christmas
👉 Donate via the link:
childrenofheroes.donorsupport.co/page/fundraiser_presents_kp

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/01/2026 09:59

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

According to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Ukraine is "on the brink of a humanitarian energy crisis."
He stated that Putin is not seeking a truce in the fourth winter of the war; on the contrary, he has ordered the most severe attacks to date on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Therefore, Merz accuses the Russian leadership of war crimes.

❗️ Ukraine must ensure that young Ukrainians stay in the country and perform military service instead of leaving for Germany, Poland, or France, — German Chancellor Merz.

Russians attacked Dnipro; as a result of the strike, a high-rise building was damaged, and a fire broke out on the territory of a kindergarten — Regional Military Administration.

Seven people were injured due to the overnight strike on Dnipro
Among them are two children.

🇩🇪🇺🇦 Blackout in Berlin continues for the fourth day — Ukrainian refugees have established an "Invincibility Point" (Punkt Nezlamsnosti), report Frankfurter Allgemeine and Radio Liberty.
Following the arson of a cable bridge, 45,000 consumers and 2,200 businesses were left without power; some have already been reconnected. As of now, 27,800 households remain without electricity.
According to energy experts, power restoration is moving slowly. The grid operator Stromnetz Berlin predicts that electricity will not be fully restored until at least Thursday, January 8.
Due to the blackout, Ukrainian refugees organized an "Invincibility Point" in the city, where people can warm up, drink tea, and charge their gadgets. Oksana Orel, a Ukrainian woman, says that for Germans, the power outage has been a source of significant stress — some even feared it was an attack by Russia.
▪️On the morning of January 3, a fire damaged key power cables on a bridge over the Teltow Canal, leading to the Lichterfelde power plant in Berlin. The group Vulkangruppe claimed responsibility for the arson, stating they acted against "energy greed."

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/01/2026 10:20

Hm, that polish man certainly made a sizeable mistake :/

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/01/2026 10:21

Does anyone know a sensible Bluesky or Twitter site for information on the Iran protests? Wartranslated said that two cities are now under protestors' control.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/01/2026 12:55

Thanks very much

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/01/2026 12:56

ouf

European allies including France and Germany are coordinating a response in case the United States moves to take control of Greenland, Reuters reports.

PerkingFaintly · 07/01/2026 13:10

Good. Awful that they have to, but good that they're embracing reality (assuming they are) rather than sticking heads in the sand.

MissConductUS · 07/01/2026 13:41

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/01/2026 10:20

Hm, that polish man certainly made a sizeable mistake :/

Agreed. He's clearly a Darwin Award candidate.

PerkingFaintly · 07/01/2026 14:35

Hope you're still recuperating OK, @MissConductUS . Brew

notimagain · 07/01/2026 16:28

Better late than never, action taken against one of the shadow fleet (live link to developing story so wording in URL below slightly missleading).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jan/07/europe-greenland-denmark-us-france-trade-weather-latest-news-updates

MissConductUS · 07/01/2026 17:58

I'm feeling almost human again, @PerkingFaintly, and the surgeon said beautifully. Thanks for asking.

@notimagain, lots more detail here about the tanker seizures:

https://www.wsj.com/world/u-s-forces-launch-operation-to-seize-fleeing-oil-tanker-0d6443ab?st=wNpRea&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The Russians sent a submarine to accompany the tanker in the North Atlantic, and presumably dissuade the US from seizing it. In response, the US sent P-8 Poseidon submarine-hunting aircraft and an AC-130J gunship aircraft to the area to counter the Russian submarine.

For those not familiar with the AC-130, it's a Hercules large transport aircraft refitted with high-caliber rotary cannons and a 105mm howitzer, used to strike ground targets and provide close air support for ground troops.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/z1gXh7XfzNc

I saw an earlier version of this aircraft in action while deployed to Iraq. The amount of concentrated fire it can deliver is very impressive.

I only mention all this because it signals to the Russians that the US is taking the tanker seizure mission very seriously and won't be deterred by any attempts to interfere.

Before you continue to YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/z1gXh7XfzNc

PerkingFaintly · 07/01/2026 18:05

I'm feeling almost human again, @PerkingFaintly, and the surgeon said beautifully.

Oh that it is good news. I'm guessing recovery will be a long haul, but it's nice to be on the right road.

notimagain · 07/01/2026 18:58

MissConductUS · 07/01/2026 17:58

I'm feeling almost human again, @PerkingFaintly, and the surgeon said beautifully. Thanks for asking.

@notimagain, lots more detail here about the tanker seizures:

https://www.wsj.com/world/u-s-forces-launch-operation-to-seize-fleeing-oil-tanker-0d6443ab?st=wNpRea&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The Russians sent a submarine to accompany the tanker in the North Atlantic, and presumably dissuade the US from seizing it. In response, the US sent P-8 Poseidon submarine-hunting aircraft and an AC-130J gunship aircraft to the area to counter the Russian submarine.

For those not familiar with the AC-130, it's a Hercules large transport aircraft refitted with high-caliber rotary cannons and a 105mm howitzer, used to strike ground targets and provide close air support for ground troops.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/z1gXh7XfzNc

I saw an earlier version of this aircraft in action while deployed to Iraq. The amount of concentrated fire it can deliver is very impressive.

I only mention all this because it signals to the Russians that the US is taking the tanker seizure mission very seriously and won't be deterred by any attempts to interfere.

One thing perhaps of note about today's operation is that it no real attempt seems to have been made to keep it under wraps.

The aircraft spotters UK side saw some interesting moves of openly visible assets into places like Mildenhall a day or two back and the AC-130 was happily advertising it's position on the aircraft tracking sites at times today.....

blueshoes · 07/01/2026 19:41

@MissConductUS that is reassuring news. It is major surgery. You must have been exceptionally strong and healthy to withstand it and recover so rapidly 💪

Igotjelly · 07/01/2026 20:14

notimagain · 07/01/2026 18:58

One thing perhaps of note about today's operation is that it no real attempt seems to have been made to keep it under wraps.

The aircraft spotters UK side saw some interesting moves of openly visible assets into places like Mildenhall a day or two back and the AC-130 was happily advertising it's position on the aircraft tracking sites at times today.....

What do you make of the apparent influx of large US military aircraft to the UK over the past day or so?

notimagain · 07/01/2026 20:18

Igotjelly · 07/01/2026 20:14

What do you make of the apparent influx of large US military aircraft to the UK over the past day or so?

Not sure but at least some of those (especially the large transport types) I think has been put down to today's op - e.g. some of the helicopters will have been airlifted in...

MissConductUS · 07/01/2026 22:19

blueshoes · 07/01/2026 19:41

@MissConductUS that is reassuring news. It is major surgery. You must have been exceptionally strong and healthy to withstand it and recover so rapidly 💪

Thanks. I don’t drink or smoke and had a fairly ambitious program of strength training and cardio before the surgery. I was completely asymptomatic. The consultant surgeon said I was an excellent candidate for the surgery.

I’m also a tough old bird. 😉

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 08/01/2026 10:15

Very glad to hear you are recovering so well @MissConductUS Lucky they spotted it.

Please create an account

To comment on this thread you need to create a Mumsnet account.

This thread is not accepting new messages.
Swipe left for the next trending thread