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Ukraine Invasion: Part 59

1000 replies

MagicFox · 17/10/2025 22:11

Well, it’s thread 59.

Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

OP posts:
Thread gallery
441
PerkingFaintly · 01/01/2026 15:57

Oh god, hideous typo – may the gods forgive me and not let me have tempted fate...

In 2028 2018 he very publicly said he believed Putin above US intelligence services.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 01/01/2026 16:02

Avert!

blueshoes · 01/01/2026 16:31

Happy New Year to all. May 2026 be the year which turns the tide for Ukraine. Slava Ukraini! 💙💛💙💛💙💛

blueshoes · 01/01/2026 17:38

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-31-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian forces increased their average rate of advance in 2025 due to a new operational template supported by technological adaptations and a shift in assault tactics.
  2. The Russian military command largely prioritized efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and establish a buffer zone in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts in 2025 but failed to accomplish these goals.
  3. The orientation of Ukrainian defenses and fortified areas helped to hinder Russian advances in select areas in 2025.
  4. Ukrainian forces appear to be undertaking their own BAI campaign that will likely parallel that of Russia.
  5. Russian forces launched over 54,000 long-range drones and over 1,900 missiles against Ukraine in 2025.
  6. The Kremlin is presenting alleged evidence to support its claim that Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast on the night of December 28 to 29, but the alleged evidence continues to be unpersuasive.
  7. Russian President Vladimir Putin officially named 2026 the Year of the Unity of the Peoples of Russia in his annual New Year’s Eve address.
  8. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/01/2026 22:14

minsmum · 01/01/2026 14:12

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/2006715072047976774 it was reported if I remember on the 27th December that the leader of the Russians fighting for Ukraine had been killed. Russia had put a bounty of 500 thousand on his head. The Ukrainians staged his assassination and claimed the money to go towards the armed forces

What really?

is this confirmed?

minsmum · 01/01/2026 23:31

Its all over Twitter

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/01/2026 09:48

Ukrainian ingenuity! :D

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/01/2026 10:03

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia captured (kyivindependent.com/russia-captured-over-4-300-square-kilometers-of-ukraine-in-2025-deepstate-reports/) over 4,300 square kilometers of Ukraine in 2025, DeepState reports.
Russian forces occupied 4,336 square kilometers (1,674 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in 2025, accounting for less than 1% of the country, the Ukrainian open-source mapping project DeepState reported in a year-end assessment published on Jan. 1.

⚡️ 'Welcome back to life (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-hur-faked-death-of-top-anti-putin-russian-commander-claimed-kremlin-bounty-money/)' — Ukraine's HUR faked death of top anti-Putin Russian commander, claimed Kremlin bounty money
Denis Kapustin, commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), was reported killed in action on Dec. 27. [brilliant!]

⚡️Update: Despite CIA's rejection, Russia hands over (kyivindependent.com/after-putin-claim-to-trump-cia-rejects-allegation-of-ukraine-attack-on-his-residence-cnn-reported/) alleged 'evidence' of Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence.
Russia's military intelligence (GRU) handed over to U.S. officials what it claimed was decrypted routing data and the controller of a Ukrainian drone that was allegedly shot down en route to Russian President Vladimir Putin's residence in an attack on Dec. 29.
The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) previously assessed that Ukraine did not target a residence used by Putin, confirming Kyiv's immediate denial and undercutting claims made by the Kremlin.
The Kyiv Independent cannot verify claims made by Russian officials.

⚡️ Ukraine deploys two additional Patriot air defense systems (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-deploys-two-additional-patriot-air-defense-systems-defense-ministry-reports/), Defense Ministry reports.

⚡️Ukraine enters EU's single mobile roaming (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-enters-eus-single-mobile-roaming-zone/) zone.
Ukraine formally joined the European Union's single roaming zone on Jan. 1, allowing Ukrainian citizens to use their mobile phone service across the European bloc without incurring additional charges.
The entrance marks a symbolic achievement for Ukraine as the country continues to implement reforms in pursuing membership in the European Union.

⚡️Lions injured, birds killed — Russian attack strikes eco-park (kyivindependent.com/lions-injured-birds-killed-russian-attack-strikes-eco-park-near-kharkiv/) near Kharkiv.
Russian forces struck the Feldman Eco-Park near the city of Kharkiv, wounding and killing dozens of animals, Oleksandr Feldman, a Ukrainian member of parliament and founder of the eco-park, reported on Jan. 1.

'The Russians took our dead ones away' — 5 things we lost in Pokrovsk
(kyivindependent.com/5-things-we-lost-in-pokrovsk/)
The Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk is now the site of some of the fiercest fighting of Russia's war against Ukraine.
While the city is being destroyed by Russian forces, former residents of Pokrovsk look back on the years between 2014 and Russia's full-scale invasion to share their bittersweet memories about their city.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/01/2026 10:08

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met in Ankara with Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov, the Turkish Foreign Ministry reported.
Details of the talks have not yet been disclosed.

We are seeing more and more clearly that Russia’s actions were and remain part of a plan aimed at all of Europe. 2026 could be decisive, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in his New Year’s address.
▫️ Russia’s war against Ukraine poses a direct threat to Europe’s freedom and security;
▫️ Germany faces daily acts of sabotage, espionage, and cyberattacks, many of which may be linked to Russia;
▫️ The rise of global protectionism is a serious challenge, as Europe’s dependence on imported raw materials is increasingly being used as a tool of political pressure;
▫️ The partnership with the United States has become more complex, requiring Europe to act more independently. “We must defend our interests much more strongly on our own,” Merz said;
▫️ Europe must be guided by confidence, not fear. This year could be decisive — a year in which Germany and Europe find new strength to return to decades of peace, freedom, and prosperity.

Sanctioned steel products were found on board the vessel Fitburg, which is suspected of damaging underwater cables in the Baltic Sea, Yle reports, citing Finnish Customs.
The head of the Finnish Customs Service, Mikko Grenberg, announced the launch of a preliminary investigation into a possible violation of EU sanctions, as the import and transit of such goods through EU territory are prohibited.
Law enforcement officers have questioned the crew, detained two individuals, and banned two others from leaving Finland.
The Fitburg was detained a day earlier. The vessel was en route from the Russian port of St. Petersburg to Israel and is suspected of damaging an underwater telecommunications cable between Finland and Estonia.

[more details from a few days ago - now 5 cables] Finland has reported damage to five underwater communications cables. A vessel traveling from Russia to Israel has been detained, Yle reports.

The Russians struck the locomotive depot in Kovel, Ukraine’s Minister of Community and Territorial Development Oleksiy Kuleba reported.
Around seven strikes were recorded.
The enemy also attacked the railway station in Konotop, where freight cars were hit.
Damage was also reported at port facilities in the Odesa region. In the port of Izmail, berths and equipment were damaged. In the Odesa port, debris from enemy drones and the blast wave damaged port equipment, vehicles, and parts of the infrastructure.

❗️Russia is openly beginning to prepare children for war — intelligence
According to intelligence sources, drone operation training is planned to be included in the standards of the all-Russian GTO program (“Ready for Labor and Defense”).
The program is officially presented as a system of physical education for children, but in reality it is now being used to introduce military skills at an early age.

🔻 The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has denied striking a café and hotel in the temporarily occupied part of the Kherson region, where the occupiers claim civilians were killed.

⚡️ Failure of Russian special services: Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) commander Denis Kapustin is alive, and the $500,000 allocated for his liquidation will strengthen Ukraine’s special forces
The commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Denis Kapustin, is alive. The funds allocated by Russian special services for his assassination — half a million dollars — will now be used to support Ukraine’s military intelligence.
“Welcome back,” Kyrylo Budanov said as he congratulated Kapustin and the HUR team that exposed and thwarted the Russian operation.
According to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, Russian special services ordered the assassination of Denis Kapustin, commander of the RDK unit fighting against Moscow as part of the HUR’s Tymur Special Unit. The operation to eliminate him had been prepared for over a month.
As a result of a complex counterintelligence operation, HUR not only prevented the assassination but also identified those who ordered and attempted to carry it out.
This was reported by the commander of the Timur Special Unit during a briefing to the head of the Defense Intelligence Directorate, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov.
“Our side also received the funds allocated by the Russian special services for carrying out this crime. Denis Kapustin is now in Ukraine and preparing to continue his missions,” the commander said.
Budanov congratulated Kapustin, who joined the briefing via video link.
“First of all, Denis, congratulations on being alive. That is always good news. I am glad that the money intended for your liquidation will instead help our cause. I wish you success,” Budanov said.
Kapustin, call sign White Rex, confirmed his readiness to continue leading the unit.
“My temporary absence did not affect the execution of combat tasks. I am ready to return to the area of operations and continue commanding the RDK,” he said.
Kyrylo Budanov thanked the Tymur Unit and military intelligence officers for the successful completion of the operation.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/01/2026 10:11

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russia claimed that forensic analysis could prove that the drones had been routed to Putin’s residence, (www.kyivpost.com/post/67273) after independent analysts and intelligence agencies cast doubt on Moscow’s claims.

Ukraine returned a record 2,310 of its people from Russian captivity (www.kyivpost.com/post/66828) in 2025 through multiple prisoner exchanges, including major swaps under the Istanbul agreements.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/01/2026 10:14

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Negotiations on exchanges and a new format for peace meetings. Here are the key points from Volodymyr Zelenskyy's evening address:
🔴In Turkey, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov is discussing the resumption of exchanges to bring Ukrainians home from Russian captivity.
🔴On January 3, a meeting of National Security Advisors will take place in Ukraine, with the participation of the EU, NATO, and the U.S. team online.
🔴On January 5, a meeting of Chiefs of General Staff will be held: focusing on security guarantees for Ukraine and working out details on land, at sea, and in the air.
🔴On January 6, a meeting of European leaders and the "Coalition of the Willing" will take place regarding support for guarantees and a peace agreement.

Two more Patriot air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense reports.
They were transferred by Germany following a recent agreement between the two governments.

🇨🇿 In his New Year’s speech, the Speaker of the Lower House of the Czech Parliament, Tomio Okamura, spoke out against aid to Ukraine and referenced the "Zelenskyy junta."
"Let them steal, but not from us, and let such a country not be in the EU," he stated.
Ukraine's Ambassador to Prague, Vasyl Zvarych, noted that Okamura's statements reflect Russian propaganda and are unacceptable.

🇦🇺 Russell Allan Wilson, a volunteer from Australia serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, was killed in the Donetsk region while performing a mission on December 12
The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) is currently verifying the reports of Russell Allan Wilson's death.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/01/2026 15:14

So ... Budanov for Head of Presidental Office.

blueshoes · 02/01/2026 18:07

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/01/2026 15:14

So ... Budanov for Head of Presidental Office.

Oh, so Budanov replaces Andriy Yermak. I wonder who will replace him as military intelligence chief and whether they will be as effective as him. Budanov has a dry sense of humour. Hope it does not confuse the Americans (and Rusians) in negotiations 😂Sorry, @MissConductUS

I read in one of the round ups that Zaluzhnyi is head-to-head with Zelensky in the poll for future elections. Anyone has thoughts on this? Hard to imagine Ukraine without Zelensky at the helm.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/01/2026 18:33

In the past Zaluzhnyi has said he's not interested in running.

It's one hell of a poisoned chalice.

blueshoes · 03/01/2026 02:12

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/01/2026 18:33

In the past Zaluzhnyi has said he's not interested in running.

It's one hell of a poisoned chalice.

I don't blame him.

^Former chief of Ukraine‘s army and current ambassador to the UK, Valery Zaluzhny, will reportedly resign as ambassador in January. (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67111)^

I see that the above page in the Kyiv Post has been taken down. So Zaluzhny hasn't actually thrown his hat in the ring.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/01/2026 10:16

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Zelensky signs decree (kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukraines-military-intelligence-head-kyrylo-budanov-appointed-as-zelenskys-new-chief-of-staff/) officially naming Kyrylo Budanov Head of the Presidential Office.
Earlier on Jan. 2, Zelensky announced that he had offered the role to Budanov, who said he accepted.

⚡️Zelensky proposes appointing Mykhailo Fedorov (kyivindependent.com/breaking-zelensky-proposes-appointing-mykhailo-fedorov-as-defense-minister/) as Ukraine's new defense minister.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed appointing Mykhailo Fedorov, the deputy prime minister and digital transformation minister, as the country's new defense minister on Jan. 2.

Budanov, formerly Ukraine's spy chief, will replace long-time chief of staff Andrii Yermak, who resigned in November following a major corruption scandal.

⚡️ Ukraine denies targeting civilians (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-denies-targeting-civilians-in-drone-strike-on-occupied-part-of-kherson-oblast/) in drone strike on occupied part of Kherson Oblast.
Earlier on Jan. 1, Volodymyr Saldo, a Ukrainian politician turned top Russian proxy head of Russian-occupied parts of Kherson Oblast, accused Kyiv of launching three drones at a hotel and a cafe in the village of Khorly.

⚡️Russia may be preparing 'large-scale provocation with human casualties,' (kyivindependent.com/russia-may-be-preparing-large-scale-provocation-with-human-casualties-ukraines-intelligence-warns/) Ukraine's intelligence warns.
The Foreign Intelligence Service said that it predicts with "high probability" that Russian special services may be planning armed provocation, expected to take place on the eve or on the day of Christmas according to the Julian calendar, Jan. 7.

⚡️Zelensky to replace head of Ukraine's State Border Guard (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-replace-head-of-ukraines-border-guard/).
Interior Minister Ihor Klymenkowill soon give the president a list of possible candidates to replace Serhii Deineko as head of Ukraine's State Border Guard Service.

⚡️At least 6 killed (kyivindependent.com/at-least-6-killed-42-injured-in-russian-attacks-on-ukraine-over-past-day/), 42 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day.
Russia launched 95 drones at Ukraine overnight, the Air Force said.

⚡️Russian attack on Kharkiv injures at least 19 people (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-kharkiv-injures-at-least-15-people-including-a-baby-local-authorities-report/), including a baby, local authorities report.
Six of the wounded were hospitalized, including a woman in serious condition, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.

⚡️Update: Death toll rises (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-kharkiv-injures-at-least-15-people-including-a-baby-local-authorities-report/) in Russian missile attack on Kharkiv.
Emergency workers recovered the body of a woman from the rubble of an apartment building destroyed by Russian missile strikes on Jan. 2. Earlier, the body of a three-year-old boy was also found at the same site, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported. The woman may have been the boy’s mother, he added.

⚡️How Ukraine's military intelligence faked the death (kyivindependent.com/how-ukraines-military-intelligence-faked-the-death-of-denis-kapustin-a-russian-commander-fighting-for-kyiv/) of Denis Kapustin, a Russian commander fighting for Kyiv.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JAN 3, 2026
■ Engagements at a low level; 2nd day of low casualties; first Russian gains of 2026 confirmed (20 km²)
7-day drone losses at a record level; land-based equipment losses well below the 7-day average
■ Overnight attacks: double-digit, all drones; decent interception rate; one week since the last major attack
■ Six 🇺🇦 strikes; 30-day strike ratio improves

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/01/2026 10:22

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

National security advisers from European countries have arrived in Kyiv, said Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov.
The meetings are attended by representatives of Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy, Spain, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Canada, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Denmark, as well as NATO, the European Council and the European Commission.
“A busy working day lies ahead: security and economic issues, work with framework documents, and coordination of further steps with partners,” the statement said.

India’s largest refinery has resumed imports of Russian oil, Bloomberg reports.
The shipment is bound for the Reliance Industries Ltd. refinery on India’s west coast. Tankers carrying nearly 2.2 million barrels of Urals crude are currently en route to the Jamnagar complex and are expected to arrive in early January, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.
The report notes that the Russian oil will be processed for domestic consumption rather than for export.

Doubts about a quick peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia have pushed up shares of European defense companies, Reuters reports.
Amid accusations of Moscow “attacking” Putin’s residence, investors are betting on continued high military spending. The European defense industry index rose nearly 3%.
In Germany, Rheinmetall shares gained 2%, Hensoldt rose 3.4%, and Renk added 2.6%. Airbus and MTU also climbed 2.6%, becoming among the top performers in the DAX index.
Traders say escalating rhetoric and stalled peace efforts are driving expectations of new defense orders.

At night, the Russians again struck energy infrastructure in the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. As a result, consumers in the Mykolaiv region were left without electricity. In the Kherson region, the Kherson CHPP was attacked again, the Ministry of Energy said.

The U.S. State Department has renewed its “Do Not Travel” advisory for Russia, Fox News reports.
The advisory was reissued this week, citing high risks related to terrorism, arbitrary enforcement of local laws, and unlawful detention. It comes amid the continued escalation of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The State Department warns that, due to reduced staffing at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow and the suspension of consular operations, American citizens have very limited access to assistance.
“U.S. citizens in Russia should depart the country immediately. Russian officials frequently question and threaten U.S. citizens without cause,” the advisory states.
The report notes previous cases in which Russian security services detained Americans on fabricated charges. Travelers are also warned against bringing electronic devices, as authorities are assumed to monitor all communications.
Due to sanctions, U.S. debit and credit cards do not function in Russia, and transferring funds from the United States is “nearly impossible.”
The advisory concludes that anyone who still chooses to travel to Russia should be prepared for the risk of indefinite detention.

🇵🇱 Polish President Karol Nawrocki said that there are still “unresolved issues” in relations between Poland and Ukraine that need to be addressed.
He was also asked whether the end of 2025 could mark a “new beginning” in bilateral relations.
“I firmly believe it will,” Nawrocki said. “President Zelenskyy’s visit to Warsaw shows that Ukraine cares about good relations with Poland. Our shared strategic interest in countering the threat from the Russian Federation is obvious — and this is one of the few issues that unites me, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and the current government.”
If you want it slightly sharper or more neutral in tone, I can adjust it. [was that last sentence left in by mistake? :) ]

😔 The State Border Guard Service released footage of devastated Kostiantynivka in December. https://t.me/United24media/38699

A MacBook saved the life of a Ukrainian soldier from artillery shrapnel.
Despite the damage, the laptop is still fully functional.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/01/2026 10:25

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

The new chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence will be Oleksii Ivashchenko, the current head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Zelensky said.

Ukraine denied involvement on Thursday in a New Year’s Day drone attack (www.kyivpost.com/post/67296) on a seaside café in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Kherson region which Moscow says killed at least 27 civilians.

As the IOC weighs neutral participation for Russian athletes, a Ukrainian intelligence review finds evidence of pro-war affiliations (www.kyivpost.com/post/66615) that could put Olympic eligibility under renewed scrutiny.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/01/2026 10:27

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇨🇿The Czech opposition demands the resignation of the Speaker of Parliament following his anti-Ukrainian New Year's speech.
The collection of signatures for Tomio Okamura's resignation will begin next week.
▪️ In his New Year's address, the Speaker of the Lower House of the Czech Parliament, Okamura, referred to Zelenskyy and his inner circle as a "junta." He also spoke out against providing military aid to Ukraine, stating that this money should belong to pensioners, people with disabilities, and families with children.
▪️ Ukraine's Ambassador to the Czech Republic, Vasyl Zvarych, called the Speaker's words "unworthy and absolutely unacceptable." Meanwhile, the Czech Foreign Minister does not consider the Ambassador's statement appropriate.
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister supported Zvarych, adding that he "rejects the lecturing and calls on his new Czech colleague for a constructive dialogue."

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/01/2026 12:44

Has the President of the US really just captured the elected leader of another country and flown him to the US?

LlttledrummergirI · 03/01/2026 13:41

Looks like it.

This needs to be condemned by leaders world wide as it's setting one hell of a precedent that if you don't like a leader you can just force regime change. Whatever the rights and wrongs of how politics in Venezuela works, it's up to the people of the country to decide.

Do we go into Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, China, Russia? Where is the line drawn if this is allowed to go unchecked?

Is Trump going to kidnap Mark Carney next?

PerkingFaintly · 03/01/2026 14:00

Shock Don't give him ideas!

Igotjelly · 03/01/2026 14:06

I do worry it’s just another thing to take the attention away from Ukraine.

PerkingFaintly · 03/01/2026 14:27

It's a gift to Putin, that's for sure.

He will play this internationally as "When I invade rightfully take back a country, violating its sovereignty, the US, Australia and Europe et al condemn me. When the US invades a country, violates its sovereignty and kidnaps its leader, they do... what?"

If countries in the pro-Ukrainian alliance DON'T condemn the US over Venezuela, Putin will yell hypocrisy. He's cracking the champagne over this blatant destruction of the rules-based national order.

If countries in the pro-Ukrainian alliance DO condemn the US, that damages the alliance – to a greater or lesser extent depending whether the condemnation is just words or also actions. But whatever form it takes, Trump will hold a personal grudge against anyone condemning his military action till his dying day.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/01/2026 14:55

And the stress level for Denmark has to be going through the roof.

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