Is Anyone preparing/hunkering down for 'after the budget'

[IsUnemploymentRising]

The news is today seems to be full of headlines such as unemployment is going up, housing markets are softening, budget is make or break.

Lots of people such as Andrew Bailey quoting things like markets could crash due to debt and AI bubble etc

I just don't see how RR or anyone else for that matter can get us out of our current situation without considerable cutbacks and pain.

Raise Taxes - lots of people think this is maxed out now with rich leaving and businesses already hit (thus rising unemployment)

Cut Benefits - will they try this again. If so what will all the people on benefits actually do to live. Will they all get jobs. Is there jobs?

So are you hunkering down?

Me personally I wish they would just get on with it. I hope to move house in next few years and whilst I'm still committed to it I can see another frozen housing market coming where only forced sellers sell and everyone else sits tight.

I'm retired (although not getting any pensions yet as too young) and definately worried about pension values (ie stock markets, bonds etc). It's very difficult to plan when your pensions are dependant on things outwith your control. (not applicable to those with final salary/defined benefit schemes of course)

State pension is a good 14 years away for me (I'm fully paid up) but I worry it will be eroded when I have built it into my calculations for retirement not to mention the freezing of tax brackets which means we are all getting taxed more each year by stealth.

I'm probably in a better position that many to weather the storm as no mortgage or debts and holding cash etc but even then I worry about our currency being worth nothing soon if they go down the route of printing money again.

Am I being overly pesimestic. I mean how are they actually going to get us out of this. For those on benefits (apart from worrying, being scared etc) how will you actually cope if your benefits are cut.

But there was far more entitlement to benefits in the 50s than now. And in the 70s than now (going on the dole was a valid choice for aspiring musicians for example). Likely that just wouldn't have been sustainable long term. Especially with the aging population. And the dole on the 70s essentially helped mask unemployment issues -nor sustainable long term.

I think people in the 90's aren't a very good comparison because there are so few of them left, and they would have been born into a time when the welfare state didn't exist. And lived through a war. The vast majority of people are between 0 and 70, and all grew up with the NHS and welfare state and the longest era of peace in Europe for 2000 years. There are twats in every generation, but it's not fair to set up younger generations as more entitled than the average retired person. If you were born in the 1950s in the UK you were likely among the most fortunate group of people ever to exist by many metrics. People talk about "blitz spirit" but forget that high rate taxes were over 90% during the war (and continued to be afterwards). There are people on this thread who would have surrendered the country to Germany rather than agree to pay that.

I’m not saying they are more entitled - in terms of the attitude

benefits these days are used to make sure working people can survive. Work doesn’t pay anymore so people will look at benefits to see what they are entitled to

it’s not the safety net it used to be

getting the line right is hard though and we’ve not had governments who made hay whilst the sun shone

There are twats in every generation, but it's not fair to set up younger generations as more entitled than the average retired person.

I never understand this narrative.

They may have over promised but now they’ve ’fixed the foundations’ they can sort out what to do without tax rises.

And I think they should continue paying - they don't stop costing money!
Why should a working family pay more tax than a pensioner household if they are on the same income - it's not fair. And I am approaching that age myself and I still think it's not fair.
NI should be abolished, and everyone should pay the equivilent rate of income tax, regardless of how they have obtained their income; it's the only way to change this ridiculous situation.

I wasn’t trying to set generations against each other

it’s the way governments have changed benefits from a safety net to a necessity.

the whole economy is a mess at the moment and the NIC increase was such an anti growth thing to do. Ultimately you need to increase one of the top 3 taxes if you want to raise a good amount of money

and sort HMRC out - there’s nothing wrong with experts so stop thinking a senior person can flit between the taxes - it makes them inefficient and ineffective. And role out some of the tax evasion/avoidance measures applied to banks since the crisis to all big corporates.

They may have over promised but now they’ve ’fixed the foundations’ they can sort out what to do without tax rises.

wishful thinking! What foundations have they fixed?

Not sure maybe Starmer or Reeves will say soon.

I agree. Housing has always been the sticking point. It was in the industrial revolution, and at the start of the 20thC and at the end of WW2. The post war building boom was paid for by the government/taxes as well.

I agree about the benefits to top up work being a problem. It's hard to see a way out though without such radical reorganising of society that would make rises in income tax look like a drop in the ocean. Essentially capitalism will always destroy itself if you let it. Companies will always privatise the profits, socialise the costs if they are allowed. The alternative is communism (huge flaws in that system too to put it mildly) or some form of government intervention to restrain the worse excesses of business and ensure those at the sharp end were protected. Keynes etc understood this. But then you got Thatcher and neoliberalism which sold the idea you can have your cake and eat it. Just let business loose to do its thing. And they sold of council housing (which was a way to subsidise working peoples housing costs) so now we subsidise workers housing costs on the private market instead (which costs more).

The biggest cost for working people's benefits is housing. Either you force employers to pay more by raising minimum wage (with costs for business), or you subsidise housing (costs for the taxpayer) or you try to claw back some of the profits created by the overheated property market. It should be the last option but wealth tax is seen as a radical option so instead we have to subsidise housing through benefits.

it’s the way governments have changed benefits from a safety net to a necessity.

There was far more social housing in the past though.

I know you weren't. I was more adding to your point than disagreeing really.

They've not "fixed the foundations". The changes they've made have been detrimental in so many ways, so made the situation worse, not better.

I know but I don’t think Labour does know this.

The biggest cost for working people's benefits is housing. Either you force employers to pay more by raising minimum wage (with costs for business), or you subsidise housing (costs for the taxpayer) or you try to claw back some of the profits created by the overheated property market. It should be the last option but wealth tax is seen as a radical option so instead we have to subsidise housing through benefits.

Housing has fucked the economy or rather making it the economy has.

I agree on housing. There must be an interesting book that compares the housing market in the UK/France/Germany over time

my mil in Germany lives with her partner but if he pre deceased her she will be homeless and her pension isn’t big enough to afford much rent wise (because she was a sahm for a chunk). I don’t know what government help she would get but I suspect she would have to move in with one of her kids

In Germany they will also go after kids to pay care home fees

i guess France and Germany have more space and populations are more spread out?

Extremely fortunate to be in a position where my day to day isn't affected in any meaningful by stuff like this.

However my brother is expecting his first child next year and one of the first things we did upon hearing the good news was plan to put money in a savings account for baby to access when he's 18. My brother is obviously doing the same, as are our parents. If things continue the way they are, I can't see how it will be possible for young people to have a good start/get on the property ladder early without this kind of help.

Neither my brother nor I received any significant financial help from our parents once we'd left home, but that was 20 years ago and I think it'd be a different story now.

I'm afraid your jokes or sarcasm are going over my head.

What is wrong with asking questions and pondering the future of the country?
Surely lots of people are doing that at the moment.

Yes I suppose it's nice to be retired in my fifties but I live a very frugal life which wouldn't suit alot of people. I just value my time over material stuff after a very stressful 5 years caring for elderly parents (and a high earning career before that).

So that address is for the Tory Party.

I didn't know that. I did used to vote Tory but now I have no idea who to vote for although I'd start by getting rid of RR/KS who inspire no confidence at all.

If you'd like to contribute to the thread you are most welcome or you can continue to just make jokes/poke at me which seems kind of pointless but up to you.

If you are on benefits and feel attacked by the thread then it isn't personal. We just can't afford to keep paying these huge costs. The purse is empty.

i guess France and Germany have more space and populations are more spread out?

Yes, one of the biggest issues we have is so the concentration of jobs in just one city.

I wouldn't give a 18 year old a large sum of money. They are still babies at that age - best leave it till they are a bit older. Seen too many kids who blew their trust funds.

Same here. We’ve just paid off our mortgage. We’re okay financially. Mid 50s so just drawn down my private pension. Still working as enjoy my work. But it’s my adult children I worry about. Everything so much harder for them than it was for me at their age.

"You pay more tax when you earn your income via PAYE (ie working for an employer) than you do when you earn income via a rental, dividends, capital gains on stocks & shares or pension income"

True, but you take no risk at all.

I don't disagree with you except that when you take a return from a rental property or a business investment that you have put upfront money into, probably money you have already paid tax on, you must understand that you are taking a risk that there may be no profit at all.

I did have a 1 bedroom flat I owned in London, with a 95% mortgage, for a few years after I moved in with DH. For the first three years, my mortgage was £750 per month, and the rent was £550, so I wasn't badly out of pocket, but it cost me money every month. Then there were building issues when the flat wasn't habitable, so for nine months there was nothing coming in so I paid quite a lot to service my investment. Then I let it again, for a year, and the tenants left after eight months, so another void period. After that a friend rented it for 18 months, and then I had a nice couple who stayed two years who moved to buy their own flat, who were given most of the rather nice Ercol furniture I collected before it was fashionable. On balance, it was squeaky bum time most of the decade. I was very happy to sell it, but it had appreciated in value too so I came away with a fair return after 15 years.

I don't have enough cash to last me for 14 years. I have enough cash to last me for just over 5 years and by then I can start to take my pensions as I will be over 57.

I do realise that lots of silly click bait media exists and to be honest I tend to stick to the serious main press and other people who I consider will understand this stuff. The thing is we all know debt has increased alot in the last year so we know we are spending more than our income (as a country). The longer that goes on the higher our debt servicing cost becomes as a percentage of our income. That's why I cannot see how they will reverse it.

They have to stop spending, create growth and make tough decisions and I honestly don't think they have it in them.

I worry if the markets perceive the budget as 'bad' then our interest rates on our goverment debt will rise again.

Talk in the news today about UK inflation going up and in that case we are headed for the dreaded 'stagflation' of little to no growth and rising inflation.

I may well have too much time on my hands and perhaps I should just stop watching current affairs/news but I do like to be informed. It also helps me makes decisions on my own stuff.

It seems I'm not alone in calling a halt to unnecessary expenditure which I figured was the case as I keep reading about falling sales in retailers etc.

I'm not actually against getting a part-time job at some point but not if a ton of it is going to be taxed and used to pay benefits. I also don't know if there would be a job for me given there seems to be quite a few threads on mumsnet about the job market being poor just now.

Thanks for posting.

What we have done

started stocking up on booze in the expectation that will be one tax going up.

taken a short break in the uk rather than a holiday abroad, That's not about saving money it's about contributing to the economy. We did save a bit but not a massive amount.

will probably get some work done on the house, supporting the local economy. I have to arrange quotes.

are tying to buy British made items or at least those where the profit will stay in the uk. It's hard when many things are made abroad. I'll miss French cheese.

put money into an ISA for grandkid. Yes it's a pity they get it at 18 and could blow the lot but it would help them to rent somewhere away from home if needed or learn to drive.

Will give our usual Christmas cash gifts to the children in the extended family early in case inheritance tax rules change in the budget.

If you can afford to - bring forward any planned spending as everything will only get more expensive.

The purse is empty.. the purse is empty - boo hoo!
Come on OP - your frugal life is the story the country has been waiting for. Tell the government how you manage to be so wonderful and cost nothing to the State.
Please, please help us to rally around to put those people who use benefits and those who wouldn’t survive YOUR version of “survival of the fittest” into work camps or .. exterminate them?
Please tell us!
I wonder how you will cope with receiving your state pension (you know a benefit from that empty purse) - with glee? Or that surgery you need? The medication to ease the pain of arthritis? Aids and adaptations for your new build when you can’t cope with stairs and standing? Wheelchairs? Carers? Naso-gastric tubes if you have a stroke and can’t chew?
Will you still be hoping those pesky children who have “special needs” are dead or locked away - what’s the saying.. “arbeit macht frei?”

I bought it to live in and lived there for several years. Solo.