Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

You thought those numbers would happen overnight? That Starmer would walk into No 10 and immediately there would be more teachers, nursery places, NHS appointments?
Odd.
Give them time. There are many more NHS appointments already. A manifesto is for the whole parliament, not the first year!

@Confused78 Oh the faux naïveté
Labour have only been in power for 14 MONTHS after the Tories were in power for 14 YEARS.
Why would Labour call an election to cement their power? No party with any sense would do that. They don’t call an election when they change leader either.
Are you an hopeful Reform bot?

There are more NHS appointments already

This is not true. It has slowed under Labour.
https://news.sky.com/story/growth-in-nhs-appointments-continues-to-slow-under-labour-despite-starmers-claims-of-success-13391882

The issue is everything they didn't put in their manifesto.* *

Such fine company the Reform party keep.
https://caerphilly.observer/news/1053610/nathan-gill-ex-reform-leader-in-wales-guilty-of-pro-russia-bribery/

Ah like the company Labour keep? Those in glass houses etc

Your image is illegible - please provide a link. I'd be interested in a comparison over time because let's face it, Reform have had an awful lot of these in the short time they've been around.

I see Cyril Smith - who was a LibDem - is on that list. He’s been dead for 15 years so I imagine it must go back several decades.

There is a Senedd by-election in Caerphilly next month, so bad timing for Reform...

I randomly googled one of the first on the list. John Friary was sentenced in 2011.

It is only a routes to redistributing money to those who the incumbent government thinks needs it more -in the case of this incompetent government it is to give to very undeserving recipients.

I see. Nice tactic. Take list A, which spans at least a decade and a half, and compare it with list B which spans a much shorter time, and watch the data distort. This is what they do.

And God forbid that you could actually admit that you were wrong.

You've been shown the evidence but rather than accept that what you said was incorrect, you change the narrative and blame IFS instead.

Meh, other countries have much less generous IHT systems, my own included. Dsis and I paid IHT over my late mum's estate in 2019 - the threshold at that point for parent to child inheritance sat at 10k Euros. Makes our generous system look a little different, that.

Inheritance is money you haven't earned. Dsis and I were glad to get it and didn't give a toss about paying tax on it.

Very eponymous, isn't it?

Not a good look for Reform.

Mandelson had know Russian links too, yet Starmer still appointed him Ambassador to the US.

Just zoom in on it!

I just did. It's very poor information - there's no dates for any of it, so as I mentioned before, we cannot compare it with the data on Reform because it isn't possible to look at how many instances per annum there have been. If as a previous poster mentioned it goes back as far as 2011 and possibly earlier, then it's not a lot, is it, as compared to everything Reform has achieved in the unpalatability stakes in the short time they have been in existence.

Please do provide some better data, preferably some which includes people from all parties, not just the one you hate.

Some men (it’s mostly men) are sadly shits whatever their political leaning. The issue if we want to make anything meaningful of your list is not whether any men in elected roles have ever been convicted of these crimes but what percentage. So that list should be set aside a list of elected Reform politicians with similar convictions and then we should consider how it stacks up that a number of men from other political parties over decades have committed crimes out of thousands and thousands of elected officials compared to a smaller number of far, far fewer over a much shorter period of time.

You’re one of those who thinks falling inflation means falling prices, aren’t you?
‘Rate of increase slows’ means more appointments are being created. Would I like it to be quicker? Of course. But they are ahead of the manifesto schedule. Waiting lists have gone down.

I googled one name there. Sentenced in 2005. Hardly relevant to the here and now and zero relevance to the Labour Party of today.
Plus, whataboutery isn't terribly a good argument. It doesn't negate the Russian links to the Reform party of 2025.

You sound nice. Are you always so complementary and polite? It really doesn't help your cause.

Rate of increase is less than under Sunak in the same time period. Labour have been taken to task for lying over this as the article explains. You are spreading disinformation by saying Labour have created more appointments (and yes I do know the difference between misinformation and disinformation).

More appointments than when? If you're not comparing the figures to the year before, what are you comparing them to?

You may wish to get some remedial maths tuition...

If the rate of growth has slowed down, then the number of appointments is still growing. Ergo, there are more appointments than there were in the year before. Just not as many more as there would have been had the rate of growth stayed unchanged. This is basic stuff.

The article does not say the number of appointments has fallen, only that it has not grown as fast as it previously did. That's not good news, but it isn't the gotcha you think it is.

More insults. Lovely. Reminds me that I'm on the right side, carry on.

So as long as there are more appointments than the day Labour came to office, all is well. Even though they are increasing at a lower rate than they were under Sunak. Its a stretch to see that as a win for Labour, but you do you.

Eh? I didn’t say anything impolite. I was just pointing out that a falling rate of increase doesn’t mean fewer appointments. You are wrong. Labour haven’t reduced appointments. To suggest they have by playing about with ‘falling rate of increase’ is misinformation I don’t have a cause to help or otherwise on this. Just pointing out some facts.