Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

[MagicFox]

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

Agreed thread guidance:
A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Seems to be a mass attack on Odessa currently, must remember that in all the noise the fuckers are still trying to kill civilians.

File this under "Two cheers for Europe".

Europe Awakens From Its Defense Slumbers - The U.K., Germany and Europe take credible steps to break the welfare-state block on the military.

The whole thing is well worth a read, but here's the final paragraph.

Still, Europe at last is admitting an uncomfortable truth: The money for defense has always been there. The shortage was of political determination, and if indeed that’s changing it will be a significant geopolitical transformation for the Continent—and for Washington and (especially) the Kremlin.

If it happens, this is indeed bad news for the Russians. The shame is that it took the antics of the Orange Menace to bring it about. That and a better understanding of the level of frustration and resentment here over Europe's decades of free riding in NATO.

When and if the money is spent, I expect Trump to reverse course and become a fan of NATO again.

Thank you!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-6-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire on March 6.
• Russian officials will likely take advantage of the suspension of US military aid to and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to spread a longstanding Russian information operation meant to falsely portray Russian victory as inevitable.
• The Kremlin welcomed a Trump administration official's recent comments mischaracterizing Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a "proxy war," and Russian media portrayed the statement as an admission that the United States is a participant in the war.
• US and Ukrainian delegations will conduct bilateral meetings in Saudi Arabia next week.
• Ukrainian opposition politicians rejected the possibility of holding elections in Ukraine before the end of the war.
• European countries continue to announce new military assistance packages and other measures to support the Ukrainian military.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk, Borova, Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to assuage Russian fears about conscripts going to war amid continued reports that Russian military units are forcing conscripts to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

No he won't, Trump would never come to Europes aid, i'm surprised you re even suggesting he would, the US in NATO is a joke.... Canada, Greenland for starters.

He is treating Ukraine appallingly, they are spending far far more then 5%... not helping them is it?
Meanwhile, Russia given free reign.

The realisation sweeping Europe is that the USA is now another "Enemy" he is making threats to Canada and to Greenland.... a fan of NATO? at least it made me laugh this morning!

@MissConductUS

Hi, hope you are feeling better..

The money for defense has always been there. The shortage was of political determination

It has, but a lot (though not all) of the problem lies with some of the voters and a public sentiment that has grown ever since swords started being turned into ploughshares, as someone said maybe thirty plus years ago.

I think once the UK wakes up this AM you’re going to start seeing threads here grumbling “they can suddenly find money for weapons but they can’t find money for…….”.

Another problem will be getting those of the appropriate age to sign up, because bods will be needed. How often even in recent days have we seen “well my son isn’t signing up..🙄”….or “well they’d sign up as long as they could serve in Cyber and be home every night🙄🙄”

TBF another problem is some Forces in some countries will really need to up their game if they want to attract recruits.

Sorry if that sounds pot half empty - The funding is excellent news but as I know you know that in itself it won’t solve the problem.

@notimagain those bloody “my son/daughter won’t be going” posts drive me mad. I personally would be in favour of some form of citizen/national service.

I think lots of them are just scaremongering because the Daily Mail told them they should.

The problem is the spectre it raises and that it isn't clearly defined. I think a lot of people would get behind training people in civil/home defence but the terms conscription and national service raise the spectre of forced compliance, meat grinders, and death in a field in Eastern Europe

We have a long way to go before conscription. We need to ramp up voluntary recruitment first and that means sorting out the recruitment process which is currently fubar.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️BREAKING: Ukraine, US delegations resume work, to meet next week (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-delegations-to-meet-next-week-zelensky-announces/), Zelensky announces. [as of yesterday]

⚡️ Trump admin to revoke legal status (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-admin-to-revoke-legal-status-of-240-000-ukrainian-refugees-reuters-reports/) of 240,000 Ukrainian refugees, Reuters reports.

⚡️No decision yet on revoking legal status (kyivindependent.com/no-decision-yet-on-revoking-legal-status-of-ukrainian-refugees-in-us-trump-says/) of Ukrainian refugees in US, Trump says.
"I'll be making a decision pretty soon," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on March 6. "But we're not looking to hurt them. Especially Ukrainians. They've gone through a lot."

⚡️'We've made a lot of progress' — Trump says US on track (kyivindependent.com/weve-made-a-lot-of-progress-trump-says-us-on-track-to-peace-deal-with-ukraine-russia/) to peace deal with Ukraine, Russia.

⚡️China's envoy says Trump's treatment of Europe 'appalling.' (kyivindependent.com/chinas-envoy-says-trumps-treatment-of-europe-appalling/)
"When you look at how the Trump administration has implemented a brazen and domineering policy towards Europe, treating its allies in this way, honestly, from a European perspective, it's quite appalling," China's special envoy for European affairs, Lu Shaye, said.

⚡️Russia launches missile attack targeting (kyivindependent.com/russia-missile-attack/) critical infrastructure in various regions of Ukraine.

⚡️Eutelsat in talks with EU to possibly replace Starlink (kyivindependent.com/eutelsat-in-talks-with-eu-to-possibly-replace-starlink-in-ukraine-ceo-confirms/) in Ukraine, CEO confirms.
"Everyone is asking us today, 'Can you replace the large number of terminals of Starlink in Ukraine,' and we are looking at that," Eutelsat CEO Eva Berneke told Bloomberg.

⚡️ Poland, Lithuania signal openness (kyivindependent.com/poland-lithuania-open-to-potential-french-nuclear-deterrence-for-europe/) to French nuclear deterrence for Europe.

⚡️Ukraine working on alternatives to US intelligence (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-working-on-alternatives-to-us-intelligence-defense-minister-says/), defense minister says.

⚡️Ukrainian, US delegations to discuss peace framework (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-us-delegations-to-discuss-peace-framework-in-saudi-arabia-trump-s-envoy-says/) in Saudi Arabia, Witkoff says.

⚡️US ready to go 'all in' (kyivindependent.com/us-ready-to-go-all-in-on-sanctions-against-russia-treasury-secretary-says/) on sanctions against Russia, treasury secretary says.
"This administration has kept the enhanced sanctions in place and will not hesitate to go 'all in' should it provide leverage in peace negotiations," U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on March 6. [oh, the wind's changed again]

⚡️Norway to increase (kyivindependent.com/norway-to-increase-aid-to-ukraine-to-8-billion-in-2025/) aid for Ukraine to $7.8 billion in 2025.

⚡️ EU leaders sideline Hungary as they pledge continued support (kyivindependent.com/eu-pledges-continued-support-for-ukraine-despite-hungarys-opposition/) for Ukraine.

⚡️ Ukraine strikes (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-struck-russian-command-post-in-kherson-oblast-stronghold-in-kursk-oblast/) Russian command post in Kherson Oblast, stronghold in Kursk Oblast.

⚡️Ukraine brought (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-brought-halts-to-aid-freeze-intelligence-sharing-on-themselves-kellogg-says/) halts to military aid, intelligence sharing 'on themselves,' Kellogg says.
U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, suggested on March 6 that Ukraine was to blame for the U.S. halting military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv, saying that the embattled nation "brought it on themselves."

⚡️Istanbul talks can't serve as basis for Ukraine-Russia peace deal (kyivindependent.com/istanbul-agreements-not-basis-for-ukraine-russia-peace-deal-trumps-kellogg-says/), Kellogg says.
"The Istanbul accords happened 30 days after the invasion, and the demands in Istanbul were fairly significant on a very weakened Ukraine," Keith Kellogg said.

⚡️European air forces could protect (kyivindependent.com/sky-shield-plan/) Ukraine from Russian aerial strikes, experts suggest.
According to the plan, developed by former British Air Force planners in cooperation with Ukraine's Armed Forces, the protection zone would cover Ukraine's three operational nuclear power plants, as well as the cities of Odesa and Lviv in Ukraine's south and west.

⚡️NATO could extend (https://kyivindependent.com/nato-could-extend-article-5-protection-to-ukraine-without-membership-italian-pm-says/) Article 5 protection to Ukraine without membership, Italian PM says.

⚡️Ukraine's central bank raises (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-central-bank-raises-key-policy-rate-warns-about/) key policy rate to 15.5%, warns about foreign policy risks.
The move marks the second raise of the key policy rate since the beginning of 2025. In late January, the central bank raised it from 13.5% to 14.5%.

The Czech weapons giant replacing (kyivindependent.com/the-czech-weapons-giant-replacing-the-kalashnikov-in-ukraines-army/) the Kalashnikov in Ukraine’s army
The Russian-made Kalashnikov still prevails as the main small arm in Ukraine’s military. A Czech weapons giant is setting up shop in Ukraine’s factories to change that.
The Prague-domiciled conglomerate, Colt CZ, has set up assembly of its Bren 2 assault rifles inside Ukraine under the name “Sich” — the center of life for Zaporizhzhian Cossacks, a historical group of Ukrainian semi-nomadic warriors.

Regardless of Trump’s Ukraine peace deal, war with West is ‘foundational to Putin’s rule,’ (kyivindependent.com/peace-with-russia-already-means-a-steady-stream-of-hybrid-attacks-on-the-us-and-europe/) experts say

️US is destroying (kyivindependent.com/us-destroying-worl-order-zaluzhnyi-says/) world order, Ukraine's ex-commander-in-chief says.
"We see that it's not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the U.S. is finally destroying this order," said Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former commander-in-chief and current ambassador to the U.K.

‘He betrayed every one of us’ – US soldiers in Ukraine speak out (https://kyivindependent.com/us-soldiers-in-ukraine-trumps-military-aid-halt/) after Trump’s military aid halt

As protests engulf (kyivindependent.com/as-protests-engulf-serbia-president-vucic-struggles-to-play-both-sides/) Serbia, President Vucic looks for support East and West
Thousands of protestors walked 300 kilometers on March 1 from Belgrade to the southern city of Nis to rally support for an anti-corruption protest that took aim at the ruling party.
Serbia's Russia-friendly President Aleksandar Vucic has often used a Kremlin playbook to discredit the protests that occasionally rise in a country balancing between Russia and the West.

⚡️ 2 killed, 24 injured in Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-over-past-day/) against Ukraine over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪- MAR 7, 2025
■ Most engagements in over two weeks
■ Casualties & equipment losses stay below average; notable APV losses
■ Increased 🇷🇺 MLRS & air strikes but the strike ratio is managable

Tbh about conscription, I'm rather indifferent to 'not my child' pleas (unless there are exceptional circumstances). It's about time that people realised that if they live in a country that is under threat, that country needs soldiers and soldiers have to come from somewhere. The not-my-Jim brigade would also not like living under occupation.

My youngest will be old enough for military service in the time frame that we are looking at for war to break out, and I would be very proud if he enlisted.

I wonder sometimes if it’s at least partly a class thing. I live in a fairly deprived area of Scotland where it’s not unusual for young men to choose the military as a career and the sense of duty is something our community feels very strongly. Speaking to friends locally I get the sense they feel similarly and would be proud to see their sons and daughters (and themselves) fight for what’s right. On the other hand my parents live in a posh part of Edinburgh and there it’s very much they’ll put a sticker on the window and maybe wear a badge but they won’t even countenance the idea that they or their loved one might actually be expected to step up to the pass.

Interesting

it does indicate how very sure the middle class/ posh people are that life will continue comfortably, doesn't it. That danger and real deprivation won't touch them.

Military service used to be seen as an honourable profession. (whether it really was much to do with honour is a different kettle of fish)

@MagicFox I agree, the definition and scope is important. That’s why I purposely avoided the term ‘conscription’. In all honesty though, if it really hit the fan I would have no problem with that either.

Full disclosure- I would be in favour of some sort of citizen service initiative even in peace time.

I have to go out for the day - Ill do the rest of the roundups later this evening, about 20:00-ish ish UK time.

Agreed.

From what I’m hearing the UK recruitment system is indeed Fubar… I gather changes are afoot but even post those changes it’s still mainly in the hands of the private sector..

Even having got bodies in something needs to be done about throughput..

One of my former specializations for while was flying training and the Uk has gone from a system where it took about 3-4 years max to train a fast jet pilot from scratch (well, post degree/A-levels). Now it seems to be taking best part of a decade because the process has become choked due to lack of capacity so lots of stops and starts (and again, there’s been a move to lots of private sector involvement)..

It’s going to be hellishly difficult to turn that ship and many others around..

I’ve got to dash, fortunately, because I haven’t even got going yet on the time I’ve seen wasted elsewhere reading arguments about whether recruits (volunteers, not conscripts) should have single accommodation, en-suite facilities and in block WiFi….

Hello…. 21st century calling…..if you want volunteers, you’d better offer a sensible “package”….

National Contribution.

There seems to be a growing and broad political consensus across much of Europe that things have at least changed with respect to the USA and that defence needs to be a priority.

Rounding up 18 year olds to drill for a year seems pretty pointless and shifts contributing to the young.

How might a citizen contribute?

1. Time, skills, effort. There is a lot to be explored here ranging from filling armed forces gaps with skilled adults (and paying then well enough) to [Starmer pose for this, trying to not look too much like a surprised rabbit] 'we are looking at ways that you can all contribute at least 2-4 weeks of your time to the effort every year. Hold on Rachel Reeves just whispered that there's a cash buyout option'.
2. Financially. 'Yes [I'm still Starmer, sorry I don't have the hair standing up quite right, mine is long] I know we had an election in the UK where the decision was to just tax employers, and then we found there was a bottomless pit and ditched most plans... but look penny on income tax. No two. There you go, done and funded.'

Oh and [those who are] not citizens too. Great route to a regularised status.

The not my brigade don't perceive the UK to be under threat. If there were a clear direct threat to the UK I think this would change.

Interesting. My maternal line is Scottish, working class, grandparents from mining village, before factory life, and I definitely get my fight for what's right principles from them. On the other hand, DH is from a pretty posh background (yes, our wedding was interesting) and i have to say they would be as willing to sign up.

Probably the only thing the two parties would agree on.

Oh and [those who are] not citizens too. Great route to a regularised status

Recruiting from the newly arrived with no obvious allegance to the host country or even Europe would have ro be thought through carefully in the current climate.

That said the French have generally managed it ok over the years via the French Foreign Legion.

Is anyone else mildly alarmed that Zelenskyy is going to talks with the US in Saudi Arabia next week? Why are they being held in SA (apart from probably Trump chose it)?
I keep thinking about what happened to Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Yes, I know he was alone and Zelenskyy will presumably not be separated from bodyguards. The whole thing just gives me a bad feeling.
Am I being paranoid?

The whole national service policy by the Tories was widely criticised before the election.

But I see nothing wrong with it if it is voluntary.

One suggestion I like is to replicate the American "GI Bill " policy where in return for say 18 months service the Government pays for your entire University fees and a living allowance.

There are 600k UK students applying to University each year, so even if only 5 or 10% of University applicants applied or were successful then you are still getting 30k to 60k military trained personnel per year.

All entirely voluntary of course and if a young person doesn't want to go to university then the equivalent money can be used for other training or a grant to set up a business.

@heldinadream

"Is anyone else mildly alarmed that Zelenskyy is going to talks with the US in Saudi Arabia next week? "

Trump has chosen Saudi because he wants to curry favour and give them some kudos on bringing about a peace deal in Ukraine in order to get them on board (or more accurately their money) for a peace deal in Gaza.

I don't think that there is any sinister in it.

I am sure it will be fine. In the highly unlikely event that anything like this happened, it would kick off beyond all belief and all bets would be off. The stakes are too high and all parties know that.