Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

[MagicFox]

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

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Thanks for the reassurance both of you.
My worry is partly based on the feeling that Trump and Putin wouldn't actually care if it all kicked off, in fact that's what they want.
But I may be being over-dramatic. I just don't trust any of them in that camp.

@heldinadream

"But I may be being over-dramatic. I just don't trust any of them in that camp."

Not trusting any of them in that camp is not being over dramatic but a fair reflection of reality!!! 😀

Be under no illusions, for all his tough talk Trump is an absolute shit bag and Putin is the man who sits at a 6m long table to avoid germs. Neither of these men want to risk their own lives.

Crazy Idea, services like NHS, really do struggle to provide proper placement training for the Students they already get from University, without more to hand hold... my DD really likes to have students on placement but it halves her patient time... & these are people who have chosen a career in healthcare.

The Military wouldn't be able to cope with 1000s of people turning up and degree level young students will not want to be foot soldiers either.

Perhaps sort out retainment and make the armed services more attractive as a career?
There are more people leaving each year than being recruited.

Is Putin actually going to be there? I thought he was just sending a delegation?
I just feel Zelenskyy is walking into the lion's den. I wish they were meeting somewhere else.

But if things really did kick off it won’t be limited to Saudi.

If anyone can outsmart the idiot Americans and Russians it’s Zelenskyy and his people.

And by idiot Americans I mean Trump’s lot!

I know. I can't help feeling that's what they both want - Trump and Putin - chaos, destabilisation, even world war. Do either of them care about their citizens? No.
I'll stop. I appreciate the reassurance and you are probably all right. I just think toxic powerful men don't care who they destroy in their power games, or how they do it, either.

I honestly think if anyone WANTED WW3 we would already be there. The bigger risk, in my view, is unintended escalation. Please don’t let the Saudi meeting have anymore headspace 🌷

I think they do want chaos and instability and I don’t think they care one jot about their populations. But they care about themselves and their ability to make money and World War doesn’t help them there.

@1dayatatime @Igotjelly @WinterMorn
Appreciate all 3 of you.
Thank you. 💞

Trump is not a normal politician. He's best understood as a poker player, who bluffs, bullies, trash talks and insults his opponents to get an advantage over them. This is nicely explained here.

Trump is not a fan of NATO because it's a liability to the US, thanks to decades of unilateral under funding of defense in Europe. Most European countries would not be able to defend themselves if invaded by a reconstituted Russian army. He doesn't want to be in a position of having to rescue them at some point, given their abdication of responsibility for their own defense.

Trump has now successfully trash talked, bullied and bluffed Europe into getting serious about rearming itself. However crude the tactics, it worked. If Europe follows through and becomes an asset to the US, he'll like it again. He performed exactly the same about face in his first term, after a majority of European NATO members started moving towards the 2% target.

Hint: Trump is bluffing about Canada and Greenland to put them on the back foot psychologically over trade issues in Canada's case, and over having a closer relationship strategically in the case of Greenland. If you've never traveled in the US, it's hard to appreciate how vast it is. New York state alone is the size of England, and Texas and France are about the same size. We really don't need additional territory.

With much respect I don’t think it has worked, he might have been successful in getting Europe to step up (clearly even seemingly reasonable Americans think we’re all delinquent) but at the expense of completely destroying trust built over decades. Europe is turning against America because they feel betrayed by whatever thought was a friend and that won’t be easy to change back.

Personally I’m good with not “being an asset” to America again because look how well that worked out the first time round.

Trump has now successfully trash talked, bullied and bluffed Europe into getting serious about rearming itself. However crude the tactics, it worked. If Europe follows through and becomes an asset to the US, he'll like it again.

That certainly is a positive but I'm not sure a US as compromised from an intelligence point of view as it is will be viewed as much of an asset in return.

Hint: Trump is bluffing about Canada and Greenland to put them on the back foot psychologically over trade issues in Canada's case, and over having a closer relationship strategically in the case of Greenland.

And now Canada is removing US products from sale, forming alliances elsewhere and public opinion towards the US is at an all-time low. Not sure how Denmark and Greenland are responding at the moment but I would guess not favourably.

If you've never traveled in the US, it's hard to appreciate how vast it is. New York state alone is the size of England, and Texas and France are about the same size. We really don't need additional territory.

Neither did Russia by that metric, so not entirely reassuring. Security, resources, etc. It's not all about acreage.

Agreed. Particularly after remarks like Vance's about 'random countries', clearly our contributions have not been respected in any form.

It's not a crazy idea. The GI Bill is a big factor for a lot of young people entering the service. It's a two year service requirement to get benefits here, and if you already have an undergraduate degree, the benefits can be used to pay for a post graduate degree.

Degree level students can become officers while having their education paid for through the ROTC program.

The BA could ramp up basic training quite easily by scheduling more training cycles per year in existing facilities. They are greatly underutilized now.

Thanks, I am feeling much better.

You're quite correct, the funding is necessary but not sufficient for Europe to become a credible military force again. Military service needs to be made much more attractive as a career option and lots of infrastructure will have to be modernized. And processes will have to be streamlined and improved. A decade to train a fighter pilot is insane.

Trump doesn't much care about European good will. In the long run, what motivates nation states is self interest.

Edited to add that it's not just American's saying that Europe has underfunded defense and the maintenance of its defense industrial base.

The Challenges of Defence Spending in Europe

I can't imagine any reasonable observer trying to make any other case.

Ukraine uses French Mirage jets for first time in repelling massive Russian attack

It was the first large combined airstrike by Moscow since Washington halted aid and intel-sharing to Kyiv.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-use-french-mirage-2000-jet-first-time-repel-russia-missile-drone-strike/

The Saudis has been busy building cities in the desert, cities that generate wealth. If the worl goes to shit, they have a lot to lose. If it goes to shit because of events that happen on their watch, they will find themselves losing out a lot.

Trust in that if nothing else.

Agree. A recent survey in Finland had found that only 30% of Finns trust America now and that's mostly male right wingers, among women the percentage is far far less.

I'm in favour of national service, it can work well as evidenced by the countries that have it, teaches skills and increases health and fitness of young people and means if shit hits the fan there is a ready supply of already trained soldiers. But I do think there needs to be a non-military option.

Better off sorting out the recruitment bureaucracy. So many (myself included) drop out during the process because of how long it takes. It really shouldn't take 9-12 months for someone to join.

You've outsourced the process to some company, correct? How can you have people doing recruiting who aren't serving in the military and probably have never served? In the US, you can walk into a recruiting office and if accepted, start basic training in 3-4 weeks.

I think you also have to make joining more attractive. Doing so will allow you to be more selective about who you accept.