Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated Ukraine's commitment to good faith peace negotiations with Russia and the particular importance of US military assistance to Ukraine's security.
• Russian officials are reportedly attempting to constrain Russian milblogger reporting about the current frontline in Kursk Oblast, likely in response to concerns that the West will pressure Russia into trading Russian territory for occupied Ukrainian territory.
• Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery and reportedly struck Engels Air Base in Saratov Oblast on the night of February 10 to 11.
• The Russian State Duma voted to remove Russian State Duma deputy and former Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) retired Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev from the Duma Defense Committee on February 11.
• The Kremlin may be setting informational conditions for possible false flag attacks in the Baltic Sea and against Russian opposition politicians living abroad in order to discredit Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and Hulyaipole.
• Russian regional authorities are reportedly reducing payments due to regional budget deficits for Russian soldiers who received minor injuries.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇸 Trump envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin during his visit to Russia, The Washington Post reports.
According to Fox News host Sean Hannity, the meeting lasted three and a half hours. The New York Times previously reported that before traveling to Moscow, Witkoff held direct talks with unnamed close allies of Putin and discussed Ukraine with officials from Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
▪️The U.S. administration has announced the release of another American detainee, expected today, but no further details have been disclosed

It remains unclear whether Trump has spoken directly with Putin, as NYT sources could not confirm this.

*🇨🇳 China expands global influence amid USAID suspension, Politico reports. (www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2025/02/10/as-usaid-retreats-china-pounces-00195922?*is_magic_link=true&template_id=OTJIR2CRKUD6&template_variant_id=OTV1GDUJ5B1ZS)
USAID is the world’s largest donor, and China is looking to fill the gap while the agency remains inactive. Chinese officials have approached Nepal’s government, offering to replace USAID funding with their own, and similar moves are expected in other countries.
The dismantling of USAID could have long-term consequences for U.S.-China global competition. Analysts urge the U.S. administration to reform the agency rather than dissolve it, warning that otherwise, Beijing could seize a massive sphere of influence.

🇷🇺🇺🇸 Russian media: U.S. ambassador makes unexpected visit to Russia’s Foreign Ministry
Neither the Russian Foreign Ministry nor the U.S. Embassy have disclosed the reason or purpose of her visit. According to sources from TASS, details will be revealed later.
Ambassador Lynne Tracy’s visit comes amid reports that the U.S. and Russian administrations have begun engaging in discussions regarding the war in Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelensky gives an interview to The Guardian – key points
🔵Zelensky will propose exchanging parts of Russia’s Kursk region under Kyiv’s control for occupied Ukrainian territories—if Russia agrees to negotiations. He emphasized that all Ukrainian land is equally important, so there is no priority in the exchange.
🔵Europe cannot guarantee Ukraine’s security without the U.S. Military support from America is crucial.
🔵A European peacekeeping mission of 100,000–150,000 troops would be meaningful, but even then, Ukraine would not be on par with the Russian army, Zelensky believes.
🔵Ukraine is open to American investments. Zelensky discussed this with U.S. President Trump in September 2024.
🔵It is important for Trump to meet with Ukraine before speaking with Putin. Zelensky is not criticizing some of Trump’s “unclear” statements but says it’s necessary to wait for details.

Russians shot down their own Eleron-3 reconnaissance drone and painted a Ukrainian flag on it in an attempt to receive awards instead of reprimands.
But that wasn’t enough for them, so they also added a Balkenkreuz - the symbol used by the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe on various military equipment.

The strikes on Kyiv this morning seem particularly brutal given there was virtually no warning so the alerts went off as the missiles we’re already hitting the city.

Hegseth speaking just now;

In comments that will undoubtedly send shockwaves across Ukraine and Europe, he says it's unrealistic that Kyiv will return to its pre-2014 borders.

"The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement," he adds.

To be clear, he says, as part of any security guarantee, "there will not be US troops deployed to Ukraine".

This should be interesting to @notimagain.

Ukrainian F-16 are conducting ground attack missions on the front lines. This is a significant expansion of their use, which up until recently has been largely limited to shooting down Russian drones and cruise missiles.

ANALYSIS: Confirmed Visual on Ukrainian F-16 Loaded for Strike Mission - Video confirms F-16s are flying not only air defense mission, but the multi-role Vipers are also flying ground attack missions loaded with precision guided bombs plus its standard air-to-air missiles.

Re Hegseth, whatever policy positions he's announcing will be coming from Trump, not something he's conjured up on his own. And he's correct in that the only way Ukraine could return to its pre-2014 borders would be if NATO ground troops entered the war. And at least seven NATO oppose admitting Ukraine to the alliance, at least in the short term.

https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/politico-seven-countries-oppose-ukraines-nato-membership/

Trump and Putin have just had a 90min call. From Sky:

hours.
"We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other's nations," Trump posted on social media.

The pair agreed to have "our respective teams start negotiations immediately" on ending the war in Ukraine.

"We will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now," Trump said.

Leading the negotiations will be secretary of state Marco Rubio, director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, national security advisor Michael Waltz, and ambassador Steve Witkoff, he said.

Trump described the phone conversation as "highly productive" and the leaders "agreed we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine".

"I want to thank President Putin for his time and effort with respect to this call, and for the release, yesterday, of Marc Fogel, a wonderful man that I personally greeted last night at the White House," said Trump.

Looks very much like talks will be bilateral and won’t feature Ukraine.

Fucker sold Ukraine out. Trump showing what a weak imitation of a man he is. No backbone, no strength, just a measly minded ferret.

Scum.

Also, why the fuck is Ukraine Trumps to give away? I hope Zelensky tells him to go fuck himself.

Thanks, swop you with the link below….

Given the rumour/talk of talks I guess there’s an argument for not holding the F-16s back solely for air defence.

The comments about Trump calling Zelenskyy to “tell him” about what’s happening is awful. That phone call to Zelenskyy should have taken place before the Putin call.

@MissConductUS

err, try again,,this link:

https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-f-16-spotted-returning-from-combat-mission/

Totally agree. This is a complete shafting for Ukraine and has serious implications for Europe and NATO.

Totally agree with you all re Trump. I recently watched a Zelensky interview where he stated quite clearly that Ukraine will not be falling out with the USA. I felt the implication was they couldn't afford to and of course he is right. But my God, talk about being sold down the river. One thing I do agree with Trump on is that Europe needs to learn to stand on its feet militarily. We dont live in a world where we can rely on others to defend and uphold civilisation. I genuinely can't believe how sycophantic he has been.

I don't know what to say. How fucking shortsighted let alone anything else.

"I want to thank President Putin for his time and effort with respect to this call”

WTF … go fuck yourself you orange moron

I’m feeling really angry and hopeless, can’t imagine what people in Ukraine and President Zelenskyy must be feeling now.

It seems Trump spoke to Zelensky as well. We don't know what the result of that is yet.

But this is well worth a read.

https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1889771241109696596

Keep your spirits up, folks :)) Ukraine has endured unimaginable trials, defied countless “nevers” and “impossibles,” and stunned the world time and again with its heroic resistance—words alone cannot capture it. We have gone from Russian troops storming Kyiv to ground-breaking Russian defeats, from fighting for survival to launching state-of-the-art Ukrainian rockets and drones that strike Russian oil depots and airbases every single night. We will overcome this as well. There is always a way forward for those who refuse to surrender. If we had listened to all the defeatists and doomsayers, Ukraine would have been wiped off the map long ago. Few nations have endured such a brutal path to freedom, independence, and the pursuit of happiness as Ukraine, but absolutely nothing is over. Everything will be alright! If we refuse to break and give the enemy the satisfaction of our despair and continue to act where action is needed. Greetings from the capital of the Free World

Was this the Russian strategy all along? Wait until Trump was in power?

History I think will not judge this kindly and maybe we will wake to a darker world where might is right once again on the European continent. We must hope that NATO stands and reaffirms itself.

This is a really dangerous time on the battlefield as well with a demoralised Ukrainian army having to continue to fight while negotiations are set up.

Devastating developments today, cede ground, no NATO, no US military support, France and the UK should be the peacekeeping force for Ukraine but not under article 5, and Trump want to be friends with Putin. I’m hoping that this is the start of a negotiation and that Trump has got something more up his sleeve, but I doubt it. Not heard Kursk mentioned yet thoughz

But yep, who the fuck does Trump think he is literally dictating these terms? It’s all about his ego and nothing about doing the right thing.

Sending solidarity to all, but especially to Ukraine.

He is such a piece of shit.
This is utterly depressing, all I can hope is that there's such a strong national and international backlash to this that he changes his tune.

As D day disappears o from living memory may be it is time to reflect what it look like for the US and Europe to stand up against authoritarian rule. Together a murderous regime was destroyed in the 1940s and a new world order founded .

Sorry we are back tracking from this and maybe Trump is a new Chamberlain with his piece of paper. The future looks uncertain for Ukraine and we needed a Churchill and not a real estate developer to look up to at this time.

Ukraine now sits looking down the mouth of a tiger for its future. and I don't think Putin will have given up on long term ambitions for the whole of the state. The prospect of a non NATO peace keeping force with our the full certainty of article 5 should send shivers down people's spines.

Alliances that founded the post war era are now under strain....

This is not a Drill focuses on NATO without the US this morning. Or, rather, defending Europe with less America

Yes. Putin has by far the whip hand over Trump and he has influence on quite a lot of Trump's cronies, from various pieces of info here and there. There is absolutely no doubt that Putin has Trump exactly where he wants him. Trump was considered unfit for President the first time around by a considerable number of physicians and psychiatrists, who had not protested en masse against other Republican leaders. He's eight years older now and never had any integrity to begin with.

I'm pretty sure that Putin laid a LOT of plans for the future, many of which did not come off but some of which did, and the ones that worked, he's threaded together into a net. The US, Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia, possibly Austria; he's supporting the far right in the UK and I think in Germany.

Putin also has contact with Musk and Musk has access to highly secret areas of US govt that he shouldn't.

The US has been sold out, not least by the poisonous media and the frequently poor education system that left people without the tools for critical thinking (there are some outstanding seats of education, but in a system where each individual has a vote, the educational system needs to be good for all). But also people voted Republican, and Democrats did not turn out to vote for Harris.

Putin was right from the beginning of the war - it wasn't as easy as he thought it would be, but all he had to do was wait.

I would lay money that Putin is at least partially behind Trump's claim on Greenland too.

Whatever the outcome of that, it's created dissension, discord and I suspect lingering bad feeling among previous allies. Putin's modus operandi all over.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ NATO reaction to Russian attack would be 'devastating,' Rutte warns. (kyivindependent.com/nato-reaction-to-russian-attack-will-be-devastating-rutte-warns/)
NATO's reaction to a potential Russian attack would be "devastating," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said during a press conference ahead of the defense ministers' meeting in Brussels on Feb. 12.
"If (Russian President Vladimir) Putin attacks NATO, the reaction will be devastating. He will lose," Rutte said.

⚡️ Trump confirms call with Putin, says Ukraine peace negotiations to start 'immediately. (kyivindependent.com/trump-confirms-call-with-putin-says-ukraine-peace-negotiations-to-start-immediately/)'

⚡️Trump announces first meeting with Putin (kyivindependent.com/trump-announces-first-meeting-with-putin-to-take-place-in-saudi-arabia/) to take place in Saudi Arabia.

'Surrender & betrayal' — US, EU officials condemn Trump, Hegseth's comments on Ukraine peace negotiations (kyivindependent.com/surrender-betrayal-us-eu-officials-condemn-trump-hegseths-comments-on-ukraine-russia-war/)

⚡️Trump holds talks (kyivindependent.com/trump-holds-talks-with-zelensky-following-his-1-5-hour-long-conversation-with-putin/) with Zelensky following his 1.5-hour-long conversation with Putin.

⚡️ Russia preparing delegation (kyivindependent.com/russia-prepares-negotiation-group-for-talks-with-us-on-war-against-ukraine-kremlin-says/) for US talks on war with Ukraine, Kremlin says.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that "work will be started quickly."

⚡️Trump says giving Ukraine NATO membership (kyivindependent.com/trump-announces-first-meeting-with-putin-to-take-place-in-saudi-arabia/) not ‘practical.’

⚡️ Kremlin rejects (kyivindependent.com/territorial-exchange-impossible-in-any-peace-negotiations-kremlin-spox-says/) territorial exchange in potential Ukraine peace talks.

⚡️US Treasury Secretary meets Zelensky, passes along draft agreement (kyivindependent.com/us-treasury-secretary-meets-zelensky-passes-draft-agreement-on-critical-minerals/) on critical minerals.
President Donald Trump announced the day prior that Bessent would arrive in Ukraine soon, without disclosing the date of the American official's visit.

⚡️ Zelensky ready to meet (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ready-to-meet-trump-in-us/) Trump in US once details are arranged.

⚡️ China proposes to host Trump-Putin talks without Ukraine's Zelensky (kyivindependent.com/china-offers-to-host-trump-putin-talks-without-zelensky-wsj-reports/), WSJ reports.
The White House declined to confirm whether it had received China's proposal but reportedly dismissed it as "not viable at all."

⚡️US Senate confirms (kyivindependent.com/us-senate-confirms-ukraine-skeptic-tulsi-gabbard-as-director-of-national-intelligence/) Ukraine-skeptic Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence.

⚡️ Defense Minister Umerov meets (kyivindependent.com/defense-minister-umerov-meets-pentagon-chief-hegseth-for-the-first-time/) Pentagon chief Hegseth for the first time.

⚡️'Returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is unrealistic objective (kyivindependent.com/returning-to-ukraines-pre-2014-borders-is-unrealistic-objective-pentagon-chief-says/),' Pentagon chief says.

⚡️Russia's military spending surpasses Europe's (kyivindependent.com/russias-military-spending-surpasses-europes-as-putin-ramps-up-war-budget-study-finds/) as Putin ramps up war budget, study finds.
In 2024, Russia’s total defense expenditures surged by 42% in real terms, reaching 13.1 trillion rubles. When adjusted for purchasing power parity—which accounts for differences in what money can buy in different countries—this amounts to $462 billion.

⚡️ Ukraine introduces (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-approves-one-year-contracts-for-volunteers-aged-18-24-defense-ministry-says/) 1-year military contract for young volunteers, faces mixed reactions.
Ukraine's government approved a one-year contract for volunteers aged 18-24 on Feb. 11, aiming to boost recruitment with financial incentives and social benefits, but the decision has sparked mixed reactions within the military community.

⚡️ Europe faces 'total' Russian occupation without Ukraine's army, Zelensky says. (kyivindependent.com/europe-could-face-russian-occupation-without-ukraines-army-zelensky-warns/)
Zelensky highlighted the disparity in forces between Russia and Europe, saying that Ukraine's army consists of 110 brigades, while Russia fields 220 and plans to expand to 250 this year. In contrast, Europe, including U.S. troops stationed there, has only about 82 combat brigades, he said.

⚡️ Russia braces for economic crisis (kyivindependent.com/russia-reactivates-special-economic-commission-to-monitor-struggling-industries/) as it revives Covid-era committee.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the commission resumed work in December 2024, focusing on nine key sectors and over 2,000 enterprises.

⚡️ Ukraine's SBU detains (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-sbu-captures-anti-terrorist-center-chief-suspected-of-working-for-russia/) its counter-terrorist center chief accused of working for Russia.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has detained the head of the agency's counter-terrorism department, who is suspected of working for Russian intelligence, SBU head Vasyl Maliuk announced on Feb. 12.
While the agency did not reveal the suspect's name, the Kyiv Independent's SBU sources identified him as Colonel Dmytro Koziura. [facepalm]

⚡️ Russia's largest steel mill (kyivindependent.com/russias-lipetsk-oblast-hit-by-massive-drone-raid-largest-steel-mill-reportedly-targeted/) reportedly targeted by 'massive' Ukrainian drone strike.
Drones allegedly targeted Novolipetsk Steel (NLMK), which produces about 20% of the country's steel output, according to pro-Kremlin media Shot.

⚡️Netherlands to supply (kyivindependent.com/netherlands-to-supply-ukraine-with-25-ypr-armored-medical-evacuation-vehicles/) Ukraine with 25 YPR armored medical evacuation vehicles.

⚡️Putin holds first call with Syria's transitional president, pledges (kyivindependent.com/putin-holds-first-call-with-syrias-transitional-president-pledges-support-and-future-cooperation/) support and future cooperation.

⚡️ Russia's sanctioned (kyivindependent.com/sanctioned-russian-deputy-central-bank-governor-yudaeva-resumes-in-person-duties-at-imf/) ex-central bank official takes up in-person IMF duties in Washington.
Ksenia Yudaeva has moved to Washington after the U.S. Treasury Department, still under the Biden administration at the time, granted her permission to transition from remote to in-person duties as Russia's IMF executive director, Bloomberg reported in January, citing sources.

⚡️US to release (kyivindependent.com/us-to-release-russian-bitcoin-suspect-in-exchange-for-fogel-media-reports/) Russian cybercrime boss in exchange for American teacher Marc Fogel, Reuters reports.

⚡️Zelensky imposes (kyivindependent.com/forbes-ukraine-ukraines-national-security-and-defense-council-imposes-sanctions-against-ex-president-poroshenko/) sanctions against ex-President Poroshenko, former president says.

⚡️ Russian missile attack on Kyiv damages (kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-attack-on-kyiv-damages-freedom-tv-channel-office/) state-run TV channel's office.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ - FEB 13, 2025
■ Engagements & casualties close to average
■ Most equipment losses of 2025 in the last 7 days
■ Record for drone losses (887 in the last 7 days)
■ Fewer strikes on both sides, ratio could be better though