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Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

1000 replies

MagicFox · 05/12/2024 18:14

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
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293
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/01/2025 11:53

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister has been invited to an expanded meeting on February 12 with the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Poland, Italy, the UK, Spain, the EU, and the US.
This will be Ukraine’s first official contact with the Trump administration.

Germany’s budget committee has approved a €3 billion military aid package for Ukraine β€” Reuters

The EU plans to cut 15 Russian banks from SWIFT in a new sanctions package, which also includes a ban on Russian aluminum and measures targeting shadow oil fleets.
Approval requires unanimity from all EU states β€” Hungary, as usual, could be a hurdle.
www.kyivpost.com/post/46238

Ukrainian intelligence has launched a major cyberattack on Russian energy giants Gazprom and Gazpromneft.
Critical online systems used to support Putin’s war machine were hit.

401 STRIKES IN ONE NIGHT – Russia rains hell on Zaporizhzhia, targeting sleeping civilians with 190 drones, 16 airstrikes, and 194 artillery attacks.
Several victims reported, with significant damage to residential areas and infrastructure.
www.kyivpost.com/post/46275

Putin is alarmed by Tucker Carlson’s statements that Biden wanted to kill him.
The Kremlin warns that even discussing an assassination attempt on Putin is a β€œdirect path to nuclear war” and a β€œthreat to global security.”
www.kyivpost.com/post/46183

Putin is escalating his terror against Ukrainian civilians, as overnight, drones loaded with shrapnel attacked Kyiv.
Shrapnel is a fragmentation weapon filled with metal balls, rods, and projectiles, meant only for the battlefield. Russia uses it against a sleeping city.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/01/2025 11:57

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΊEU officials have begun discussing the resumption of Russian gas purchases, FT reports
Supporters of the idea argue that it could lower Europe’s high energy prices, encourage Russia to negotiate, and provide both sides with a reason to establish and maintain a ceasefire. This initiative has been endorsed by Germany and Hungary, with backing from other capitals.
However, the idea has sparked anger among Ukraine’s closest allies within the EU during earlier discussions.
β€œThis is madness. How foolish can we be to even consider this as an option?” one official stated.
The proposal has also raised concerns among U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, who aim to sign long-term agreements to supply European companies.

European furniture manufacturers continued buying timber from Russia and Belarus after EU sanctions were imposed in 2022.
This was revealed (www.earthsight.org.uk/blood-stained-birch#section-e9FdKxhueY) in an Earthsight investigation, which found that manufacturers purchased €1.5 billion worth of Russian and Belarusian timber despite the sanctions.
The timber is exported via China, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. Companies in Poland, Estonia, Bulgaria, Spain, and Germany buy from traders who repackage the timber and alter documentation to remove traces of its Russian origin.
A total of seven major Russian timber producers are involved in this scheme.
In 2022, the EU banned imports of Russian timber, pulp, paper, wooden products, and furniture as part of its sanctions.

MissConductUS · 30/01/2025 13:38

Golden407 · 30/01/2025 10:03

I'd love to see some movement with this but I can't see where it comes from. Russia has one of the worlds lowest costs of production for oil, around 15 USD per barrel. US production costs vary greatly because of the varying costs of shale production but bottoms at around 25 USD per barrel.
Without making the overwhelming majority of global production loss making it's not possible. As far as threatening sanctions goes. Trade between India and the US isn't huge on a global scale and it's only slightly skewed in Indias favour I doubt it's a huge lever.
It's worth remembering india is bringing in a huge amount revenue buying Russian oil and gas and selling them on to Europe at a mark up.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-vladimir-putin-russia-fuel-imports-india-war-in-ukraine-price-cap-sanction/

I think it just serves to highlight the relative decline of US/Western power. I don't think the traditional methods of threats and coercion work as the power just isn't there to make them effective anymore.

The US and the wider West needs to come to terms with a multipolar world and adjust it's approach accordingly. Twenty years ago the sanctions imposed on Russia would have crippled the economy within weeks and it's allies would have distanced themselves immediately. That's not the case anymore.

It's reported that the sanctions will be extended to vessels carrying Russian oil, and India is expected to feel the impact.

India is staring at an β€˜oil shock’ as U.S. sanctions on Russian crude loom

and

U.S. Sanctions Are Squeezing India's Russian Oil Imports

India loves Russian oil because they get it at a discount from the market price. To the extent they can continue to get it in smaller amounts, they may well decide it's not worth pissing off Trump, who they have to deal with for the next four years.

I wouldn't underestimate the US's ability to shape how this plays out.

India is staring at an 'oil shock' as U.S. sanctions on Russian crude loom

India is now staring at the possibility of an oil shock after the U.S. decided to implement sweeping sanctions on Russia's oil industry.Β 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/17/us-sanctions-on-russian-oil-india-impact.html

DrBlackbird · 31/01/2025 08:06

If true, then fantastic. However, why would Trump’s administration inflict more sanctions than Biden’s administration? I wouldn’t have thought that there was appetite or support for Ukraine amongst Trump’s people?

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 31/01/2025 08:39

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Sweden unveils (kyivindependent.com/sweden-unveils-its-largest-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-worth-1-2-billion/) its largest military aid package for Ukraine worth $1.2 billion.
The package includes 16 CB90 combat boats with weapons stations, a million rounds of 12.7 mm ammunition, 146 trucks, 1,500 TOW anti-tank missiles, as well as 200 AT4 anti-tank launchers.

⚑️Explosion at Rheinmetall plant in Spain leaves (kyivindependent.com/6-people-suffer-injuries-in-explosion-at-rheinmetall-plant-in-spain/) 6 injured.
The explosion occurred at 4:20 p.m. local time on Jan. 30, starting a large fire that spread to about 2,000 square meters. The cause of the incident is currently under investigation, Spanish authorities said.

Has Chasiv Yar fallen? No, say experts, OSINT analysts, military officials (https://kyivindependent.com/has-chasiv-yar-fallen-no-say-experts-osint-analysts-military-officials/)

⚑️IAEA chief to visit Kyiv (kyivindependent.com/iaea-chief-to-visit-kyiv-next-week/) next week.

⚑️ Russian oligarch held stake in Musk's SpaceX through trust despite sanctions, Bloomberg reports. (kyivindependent.com/russian-oligarchs-hidden-stake-in-musks-spacex-revealed-despite-sanctions-bloomberg-reported/)
Russian billionaire and politician Suleyman Kerimov held at least a 1% stake in SpaceX through a trust, even after the U.S. sanctioned him in 2018 for aiding President Vladimir Putin's policies, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 30, citing undisclosed sources.

Kyiv Independent launches fundraiser to support Ukraine's front-line media after US aid freeze. (kyivindependent.com/kyiv-independent-launches-fundraiser-to-support-ukrainian-front-line-media-after-us-aid-freeze/)
The Kyiv Independent launched a fundraiser to support three independent local media outlets in Ukraine, whose funding was cut as a result of a 90-day pause on U.S. foreign aid ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump.
The goal is to raise 40,000 pounds ($50,000) through GoFundMe (www.gofundme.com/f/save-ukrainian-media).

⚑️ Defense Ministry must resolve procurement agencies issues by February, Deputy PM says. (kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-must-resolve-procurement-issues-deputy-pm-says/)
The Defense Ministry must resolve all issues regarding the Defense Procurement Agency (DPA) and the State Rear Operator (DOT) by the end of February, said Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Minister Olha Stefanishyna, Suspilne reported on Jan. 30.

⚑️Oil shipments on pause at Russia's Ust-Luga port (kyivindependent.com/oil-stops-flowing-via-russias-ust-luga-port-after-drone-strike-bloomberg-reports/) after drone strike, Bloomberg reports.

⚑️Ukrainian court freezes (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-court-arrests-assets-of-russian-oligarch-deripaska-worth-nearly-50-million/) Russian oligarch Deripaska's assets worth nearly $50 million.

⚑️Ukraine’s military intelligence disrupts (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-military-intelligence-disrupts-gazproms-digital-services/) Gazprom's digital services.
Cyber specialists from Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Agency (HUR) launched a cyber attack against Gazprom and Gazpromneft on Jan. 29, Hromadske reported, citing undisclosed sources from HUR.

⚑️Ukraine’s parcel delivery giant Nova Poshta invests $43 million (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-parcel-delivery-giant-nova-poshta-invests-43-million-to-expand-network-in-2024/) to expand network in 2024.

⚑️50% of Poles oppose Ukraine's EU, NATO membership (kyivindependent.com/50-of-poles-oppose-ukraines-eu-nato-membership-until-volyn-issue-resolved-survey-finds/) until Volyn issue resolved, poll shows.

⚑️Russian drone strike in Pokrovsk injures 3 (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-strike-in-pokrovsk-injures-3-including-british-volunteer/), including British volunteer.

⚑️Russia blocked (kyivindependent.com/russia-blocked-417000-websites-in-2024-media-reports/) 417,000 websites in 2024, media reports.
In 2024, Russian authorities blocked 417,000 websites, the Russian independent news outlet Verstka reported.
VPN services also increasingly became a target of Russia’s communications regulator, Roskomnadzor.

⚑️Ukraine identifies Russian commanders (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-identifies-russian-commanders-behind-deadly-hypermarket-strike-on-kharkiv/) behind deadly hypermarket strike on Kharkiv.
The May 25 attack was carried out with guided bombs, killing 19 people, including two children, and injuring 46 others.

⚑️Tulsi Gabbard 'offended' (kyivindependent.com/tulsi-gabbard-offended-by-question-about-pro-russian-sympathies-at-senate-hearing/) by question about pro-Russian sympathies at Senate hearing.
Trump's pick for national intelligence director tried to walk back previous comments blaming NATO for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

For Ukraine’s female partisans in occupation, hope lies in resistance (https://kyivindependent.com/for-ukraines-female-partisans-in-occupation-hope-lies-in-resistance/)

⚑️Update: Russian drone attack on residential building in Sumy kills 6, injures 9 (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-attack-in-sumy-kills-1-injures-3-including-child/) [yesterday]
The victims include an 8-year-old boy and a 7-year-old girl.
⚑️ 1 killed, 35 injured in Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/attacks-123/) across Ukraine over past day.

β€ͺRagnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦β€¬ β€ͺ - JAN 31, 2025
β–  Casualties >7-day avg despite fewer engagements
β–  Equipment losses well above avg; triple-digit vehicle losses
β–  Visually confirmed: 80 πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί 65 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ (1.2x), last 30 days 1.5x
β–  Increased strikes, strike ratio slightly above avg

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
MagicFox · 31/01/2025 09:03

Recommend this discussion on Trump's America and Ukraine: pca.st/episode/7e07bcc3-f8ee-477e-8e54-ba14b99da0f7

OP posts:
DrBlackbird · 31/01/2025 09:45

Interesting podcast @MagicFox

Trump clearly susceptible to flattery. The more sycophantic the better. But we’ll have to wait and see if Trump resists Putin’s fake flattery. Maybe he’ll take offence to Putin’s obvious belief that Trump can be easily manipulated. I’m hoping that American defence companies will have the final influence in terms of persuading Trump to maintain military support to Ukraine.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress what have you said to warrant the naughty step?

MagicFox · 31/01/2025 10:00

I thought what they said about Hegseth and Rubio being pro-ukraine support was interesting

OP posts:
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 31/01/2025 10:39

could someone please report my post? It was the Kyiv Independent and presumably had some link that was something they need to check. Reporting it might speed it up.

@DrBlackbird jus saw your post - wondering the same! There wasn't a link to a Full Monty calendar of Zelenskyy, I promise.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 31/01/2025 10:46

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

In 2024, one day of war cost Ukraine an average of UAH 5.7 billion ($142 million), according to the BBC, citing the Ministry of Finance.
Total defense spending from the state budget reached nearly UAH 2.1 trillion ($51.9 billion). In 2025, Ukraine plans to allocate UAH 2.2 trillion for defenseβ€”more than a quarter of the country's GDP.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed that the war in Ukraine must end through negotiations, with both sides making concessions.
He acknowledged that Putin’s actions are terrible but stated that the US and the West have also made mistakes in the war.

North Korean soldiers have disappeared from the front lines after being withdrawn due to heavy losses, The New York Times reports, citing Ukrainian and American sources.
Of the 11,000 DPRK troops sent to fight against Ukraine in November, their numbers have been cut in half over the past three months.

However, American officials believe that despite the withdrawal, North Korean forces could return after additional training or if a new strategy is devised to reduce casualties.

Chinese banks are once again blocking payments to Russia.
Tighter U.S. financial sanctions, which targeted Gazprombank at the end of 2024 and dozens of intermediary companies in 2025 for bypassing restrictions, have led to new difficulties in Russia’s transactions with China.

Russia is now using Shahed drones with an increased warhead of up to 90 kg and shrapnel to maximize civilian casualties, said the head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak. He also shared a photo of the warhead from one of the Russian UAVs.

Lithuania has supplied Ukraine with short-range portable anti-aircraft missile systems and missiles, the country's Defense Ministry reported.
It also stated that in 2025, Lithuania plans to expand support for Ukraine’s air defense, ammunition, and drones. Additionally, the country intends to back Ukraine’s defense industry by financing domestically produced weapons.

The Bundestag’s budget committee voted for an additional €3 billion in aid for Ukraine. The next step is for the finance minister, Reuters reports, citing sources.
The request for additional aid, put forward by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, was supported by the conservative CDU/CSU and the Free Democrats. MPs from the ruling SPD abstained.
In 2024, Germany allocated €8 billion in aid to Ukraine. In the 2025 budget, the amount has been halved, as the German government is counting on a $50 billion loan approved by the G7. However, according to Spiegel, about half of these funds cannot be used to purchase weapons.

Some kind of Bingo is happening to Russian oil refineries. Interesting, what’s going on?

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 31/01/2025 10:54

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Trump effectively confirmed speaking with Putin but denied discussing the Washington plane crash.
β€” Did you talk to Putin about the plane crash?
β€” No, not about this.

Trump warns that the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports from BRICS if they attempt to replace the dollar in global trade.

BLAST IN VOLGOGRAD! Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Lukoil refinery overnight, sparking a fire. Locals heard explosions & gunfire: β€œThe whole apartment shook!” This refinery, key to Russia’s fuel supply, has been hit before.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/46345

Norway detains Russian-crewed vessel Silver Dania over suspected Baltic Sea cable damage.
Norwegian police are currently on board, carrying out searches, interrogations, and collecting evidence.

β€œUkraine is a fictional state,” and its breakup is β€œ100% inevitable,” said Romanian presidential candidate Kelin Georgescu.
He claims Romania must reclaim its β€œhistorical lands,” praises Putin, and swears to cut off Ukraine if elected.
www.kyivpost.com/post/46305

Ukraine said it blocked over 4,500 illegal online casinos in 2024 as gambling addictions became an issue for the war-torn nation, especially among troops after Russia’s 2022 invasion.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/46299

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 31/01/2025 10:57

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukraine has been set back 100 years, its energy system is destroyed, and its future is at risk due to millions of citizens who have left the country, said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
β€œFrom the president’s perspective, this is a prolonged conflict, and it needs to be resolved. Negotiations are necessary, and in those negotiations, both sides will have to make concessions. This will take time,” the official stated.
According to him, the Biden administration misled Kyiv into believing that Ukraine could β€œreturn to what it was in 2012 or 2014β€”before the Russians took Crimea.”

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± A 19-year-old Polish volunteer, Filip Antosiak, was killed near Pokrovsk
Antosiak had left his studies in the UK to join a unit specializing in strike drones.

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡° In Slovakia, a Ukrainian national has been detained over alleged β€œpreparation of a coup.”
The police have not specified whether the detainee acted alone or if he was on an international wanted list. He may soon face deportation.

Every Russian oil refinery attacked by Ukrainian drones, mapped

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
MissConductUS · 31/01/2025 11:49

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress

Some kind of Bingo is happening to Russian oil refineries. Interesting, what’s going on?

It's a deliberate strategy, with two goals. The first is to deprive the Russian military of easy access to refined fuels and lubricants, and the second is to cause broader shortages of those products. The Russian army will still get them, as they have priority over the civilian sector demand, but there will be delays and local shortages. Civilians will experience higher prices and more widespread and persistent shortages, affecting agricultural and industrial production and cause civilian unrest.

It's a good strategy, and they now have the long-range weapons to pursue it at scale.

DrBlackbird · 31/01/2025 13:04

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 31/01/2025 10:39

could someone please report my post? It was the Kyiv Independent and presumably had some link that was something they need to check. Reporting it might speed it up.

@DrBlackbird jus saw your post - wondering the same! There wasn't a link to a Full Monty calendar of Zelenskyy, I promise.

Edited

Actually that’s a post I’d welcome πŸ˜‰ or maybe not allowed to say that 🀐

blueshoes · 31/01/2025 13:31

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-30-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • Kremlin newswire TASS published an interview with Valdai Discussion Club Research Director Fyodor Lukyanov on January 30 entitled "Don't count on big agreements," highlighting the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to shape domestic and global expectations about future negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.
  • Lukyanov stated during the interview that the "main thing" for future peace negotiations regarding Ukraine is "not the territories" but addressing the "root causes" of the war, which Lukyanov defined as NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s.
  • Lukyanov's statements assume that Trump and his administration are weak and more susceptible to being intimidated by the Kremlin's shows of force than the former Biden Administration.
  • People's Republic of China (PRC)-based companies continue to supply Russia with critical materials needed to sustain Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
  • The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on January 28 defining its position on peace in Ukraine, closely echoing the principle of "peace through strength" that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky previously outlined.
  • The US military reportedly recently transferred Patriot missiles from Israel to Poland and is expected to deliver these missiles to Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kharkiv and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasi
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 31/01/2025 13:54

There we go, the Kyiv Independent stuff is restored. Damn you mumsnet for removing the pic of Zelensky topless.

blueshoes · 31/01/2025 15:00

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 31/01/2025 13:54

There we go, the Kyiv Independent stuff is restored. Damn you mumsnet for removing the pic of Zelensky topless.

😁Let me PM you ...

DrBlackbird · 31/01/2025 17:09

Trump warns that the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports from BRICS if they attempt to replace the dollar in global trade.

This is going to be interesting to watch. An isolationist President who wants to dictate what other nations do. He may yet decide that he likes a global platform.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 01/02/2025 09:38

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️ China is Russia's sole supplier of key military-use rare metals amid sanctions, RFE/RL reports. (kyivindependent.com/china-providing-rare-metals-to-russia-media-says/)
China became Russia's sole supplier of gallium, germanium, and stibium, chemical substances needed to produce weapons, including nuclear ones, after the introduction of EU and U.S. sanctions in 2022, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's (RFE/RL) Schemes' investigation said on Jan. 30.

⚑️ '100% tariffs' β€” Trump vows trade war if BRICS (kyivindependent.com/100-tariffs-trump-vows-trade-war-if-brics-creates-alternative-currency/) replaces dollar as reserve currency.

⚑️Finland announces $206 million military package (kyivindependent.com/finland-announces-206-million-military-package-for-ukraine/) for Ukraine.
This brings Finland's total defense aid provided to Ukraine since the outbreak of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 to 2.5 billion euros ($2.6 billion).

⚑️ North Korean troops not seen for 3 weeks in parts of Kursk Oblast, Ukraine’s Special Forces (https://kyivindependent.com/north-korean-troops-not-seen-for-3-weeks-in-parts-of-kursk-oblast-ukraines-special-forces-say/) say.

⚑️ Ukraine destroys (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-strike-hits-russian-command-post-in-kursk-oblast-general-staff-claims/) Russian command post in Kursk Oblast, General Staff claims.

⚑️ Netherlands to send more F-16s (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-receive-new-batch-of-f-16-batch/) in 2025, Ukrainian defense minister says.

⚑️ Defense Ministry approves Ukrainian-made Hromylo drone (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-approves-homemade-hromylo-aerial-vehicle-for-military-use/)for military use.

⚑️ Ukraine deploys long-range drone (kyivindependent.com/dozens-of-missions-ukraine-operates-long-range-drone-that-can-carry-250-kilogram-bombs/) capable of 2,000 km strike, military says.
Ukrainian soldiers are now using a long-range drone capable of traveling up to 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles) and carrying a 250-kilogram air bomb, the Unmanned Systems Forces said on Jan. 31.

⚑️ Ukraine’s inflation set to peak by mid-2025 (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-inflation-set-to-peak-by-mid-2025-cool-to-8-by-year-end-central-bank-says/), cool to 8% by year-end, central bank says.
Ukraine’s inflation rate is expected to peak at 15% by mid-2025 before dropping to 8.4% by year's end, Ukraine’s Central Bank said on Jan. 31.

⚑️ Putin clears Goldman Sachs' exit from Russia (kyivindependent.com/putin-clears-goldman-sachs-exit-from-russia-with-sale-to-armenia-based-firm/) with sale to Armenia-based investment firm Balchug Capital.

⚑️Moldova to provide (https://kyivindependent.com/moldova-to-provide-temporary-gas-loan-to-transnistria-following-russian-supply-halt/) temporary gas loan to Transnistria following Russian supply halt.
Moldova will supply 3 million cubic meters of gas to the Russian-occupied Transnistria region on Feb. 1, under an agreement signed earlier in the week, Reuters reported.
Moldovagaz head Vadim Cheban stated that the gas will be delivered as a loan, which must be repaid by March 1, 2025.

⚑️ SBU probes alleged leak of Budanov’s statement (kyivindependent.com/sbu-probes-alleged-leak-of-budanovs-statement-on-threat-to-ukraines-existence/) on threat to Ukraine’s existence.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has launched a criminal investigation following media reports alleging that Ukraine’s spy chief made a statement about a threat to the country’s existence during a closed-door parliamentary meeting, Ukrainska Pravda reported on Jan. 31, citing the SBU.

Ukraine Business Roundup β€” Record wartime private sector investment (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-business-roundup-largest-wartime-private-sector-investment/)
In this edition: Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK, announced plans on Jan. 22 to invest 450 million euros ($468 million) in expanding the Tyligulska Wind Power Plant near the Black Sea coast.

Ukraine's unlikely ally against Russian attacks on energy sector β€” warm weather (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-unlikely-ally-against-russian-attacks-on-energy-sector-warm-weather/)
Climate change β€” which has been causing warmer winters each year in Ukraine β€” has also become Ukraine's unexpected ally in resisting Russia’s tactic of freezing Ukrainians into submission.

⚑️ Slovakia bans Georgian Legion commander (kyivindependent.com/slovakia-bans-georgian-legion-head-from-entering-country-after-coup-plot-accusations/), linking him to alleged coup plot.

AI company Safe Pro Group has signed a multi-year agreement with Ukrainian agricultural company Nibulon to deploy AI-powered drones for detecting landmines in farmland, BusinessWire reported on Jan. 31. https://kyivindependent.com/ai-powered-drone-company-to-assist-in-demining-ukrainian-farmlands/

What's behind Zelensky's recent round of sanctions on top pro-Russian politicians, propagandists, energy mogul? (https://kyivindependent.com/three-years-into-all-out-war-zelensky-cracks-down-on-countrys-top-pro-russian-politicians-propagandists/)

US foreign aid transformed Ukraine. Its suspension threatens (kyivindependent.com/how-us-foreign-aid-transformed-ukraine-through-the-years/) a setback
Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, USAID has provided Ukraine with $2.6 billion in humanitarian aid, $5 billion in development assistance, and more than $30 billion in direct budget support, helping to rebuild schools after Russian attacks, pay for bomb shelters, advanced medical equipment for hospitals and much more.
Yet USAID's support for Ukraine began well before the full-scale invasion and, according to people who have worked on such projects, their work is vital, and their value immeasurable.

⚑️Ukrainian director Chernov wins Documentary Directing (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-director-chernov-awarded-best-documentary-director-at-sundance/) award at Sundance.

⚑️At least 3 dead, 10 injured (kyivindependent.com/at-least-3-dead-10-injured-in-poltava-after-russia-attacks-residential-building/) in Poltava after Russian missile strike on residential building.

β€ͺRagnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦β€¬ β€ͺ - FEB 1, 2025
β–  Fewer engagements & casualties below 7-day average
β–  Equipment losses stay well above average; good armor & artillery losses
β–  Strikes on both sides above average but ratio could be better

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 01/02/2025 09:43

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The United Kingdom will provide Ukraine with up to Β£2 billion for the purchase of air defense systems and missiles, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced.

US President Donald Trump stated that he will talk to Putin and believes they may achieve something significant.
He also mentioned that "very serious" discussions with Russia about ending the war are already underway.
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said yesterday that there has been no contact between Trump and Putin yet.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor OrbΓ‘n has again threatened to veto EU sanctions against Russia in six months if Ukraine does not resume Russian gas transit by then.
He stated that he had received guarantees that gas transit would be restored. [this might explain the recent rumours of pressuing Ukraine to restore gas transit. why the hell is Hungary still in the EU?]

The Czech Republic is seeking funding for a new initiative to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine, Czech Foreign Minister Jan LipavskΓ½ told SΓΌddeutsche Zeitung.
β€œIt is a question of political will, and if many EU member states join our initiative again, we can achieve a lot for Ukraine,” LipavskΓ½ said.
As part of the first initiative, supported by about 20 European countries, the Czech Republic purchased 1.5 million 122mm and 155mm shells, which are now being supplied to Ukraine.

The Center for Countering Disinformation has refuted claims that Russia is planning the serial production of Iskander-M missiles with a 1,000 km range.
Earlier, this information was circulated online, citing Military Watch Magazine, which claimed that Russia would soon begin mass production of an upgraded Iskander-M system with double the original range.
The CPD stated that this claim has no factual basis and is false. The publication previously spread misinformation about Russia allegedly producing 25 Oreshnik missiles per month, which also turned out to be untrue.
[...] In reality, sanctions have made the production of Iskander-M missiles significantly more difficult.

A second vessel suspected of damaging the Ventspils-Gotland cable in the Baltic Sea was detained on January 26, according to TromsΓΈ County Police in Norway.
"Based on a lawful request from Latvian authorities and a decision by the Nord-Troms and Senja District Court, police have detained the Norwegian-registered vessel Silver Dania, owned by a Norwegian company. The vessel operates between St. Petersburg and Murmansk, and its crew is Russian.
This morning, the vessel was brought to the port of TromsΓΈ, where police are conducting searches, interrogations, and evidence collection," the statement said.
Earlier, Swedish authorities detained the Bulgarian vessel Vezhen, sailing under the Maltese flag, also on suspicion of damaging the cable.

Palantir, the Secretive Tech Giant Shaping Ukraine’s War Effort (united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/palantir-the-secretive-tech-giant-shaping-ukraines-war-effort-5519)
As AI technology becomes more integral to daily life, companies like Palantir play an increasingly vital role in global day-to-day. In Ukraine, Palantir’s AI-driven data analytics are helping the military with real-time intelligence and supporting demining and reconstruction efforts.
With its advanced data analysis tools, Ukraine could accurately identify and destroy thousands of Russian military vehicles and equipment, turning intelligence into a force multiplier on the battlefield.

The Russians may have started conserving their forces for the first time, Viktor Tregubov, spokesman for the Operational Strategic Group β€œKhortytsia,” told Reuters regarding their new tactics in the Pokrovsk direction.
According to Tregubov, Russian forces are no longer launching direct assaults on large, well-fortified cities as they did before. Instead, they are attempting to bypass and encircle Pokrovsk from the west.
β€œThis tactic differs from their previous approach, where they relied on frontal assaults and street battles, suffering heavy losses. Perhaps they have started to save their forces for the first time,” he noted.
Despite having a numerical advantage, Russian infantry continues advancing near Pokrovsk β€œday and night,” attacking in small groups and using terrain and poor visibility to evade Ukrainian UAVs, according to the deputy commander of Ukraine’s 59th Separate Assault Brigade.
However, he added that over the past month, Russian assaults have slightly decreased in intensity, with fewer artillery attacks than six months ago.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 01/02/2025 13:40

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

πŸ‡³πŸ‡±βœˆοΈ Ukraine will receive a new batch of F-16 fighter jets from the Netherlands in 2025.
In addition to supplying more aircraft, the Netherlands will continue training Ukrainian pilots, engineers, and technicians.
Specifically, 26 Ukrainians will be trained as F-16 crew chiefs, with the training scheduled to continue until the end of April.

The German defense company Rheinmetall stated that there are no indications that the explosion at their Spanish facility was the result of malicious actions.
β€œThe production facilities were not damaged in the incident, and no disruptions to manufacturing are expected,” Rheinmetall added.

❗️Odesa strike: Norwegian diplomatic representatives were near the impact site
Currently, three people are reported injuredβ€”two women and a young man born in 2006. They have been hospitalized.
The attack also damaged a theater, a museum, architectural landmarks, and other buildings in the city center.

The death toll and number of injured in Poltava have risen following the Russian missile strike
The number of fatalities has increased to five, while 14 people have been injured, including three children. A total of 22 people have been rescued, according to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service (SES)

🀑The Berlin-based creative agency LURE created an advertising campaign for Russia’s β€œMeduza”, portraying the β€œsuffering of Russians in exile” using photographs of Ukrainians.
In the video, the agency included footage of a destroyed house in Borodyanka, a video of a woman crying next to her home in Bucha, and a photo of Yaroslav Bazylevych, whose family was killed in a Russian strike on Lviv.
β€œMeduza” stated that the campaign is not aimed at Russian readers but at a Western audience to expand its reach and increase donations, as the outlet is facing serious financial difficulties.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 01/02/2025 13:46

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

China is building a massive military complex near Beijing β€” TEN times bigger than the Pentagon.
Satellite images published by the Financial Times reveal a 405-hectare site with bunkers and deep tunnels, likely built to shield military leaders in case of nuclear war.

Russia’s grain empire is falling apart. For the first time in years, it’s on the verge of losing its dominance in the global market. In 2025, exports will crash by a third β€” The Moscow Times
Next year, farmers are expected to export 48-49 million tons, down from 72 million last year. Wheat exports could fall to 41-42 million tons, a drop of over 16 million tons (28%) year-on-year.
The decline in grain exports follows a poor harvest, hit by bad weather and the government’s ban on seed imports.

Another Russian command post in the Kursk region β€” hit hard. Ukraine’s missile and artillery forces cripple enemy operations. Russian air defenses scramble, but they can’t stop what’s coming.
www.kyivpost.com/post/46381

Russian soldier accused of abducting, raping and keeping a woman as a sex slave for over a YEAR.
The investigation continues.
www.kyivpost.com/post/46369

β€œThe screening of β€œRussians at War” by the Antenna Documentary Film Festival shows poor judgement and insensitivity by its organisers,” said the Ukrainian ambassador to Australia about the film’s inclusion in the festival.
The controversial documentary, directed by Anastasia Trofimova β€” a producer for the Russian state-funded media outlet Russia Today β€” distorts the reality of Russian aggression and serves as a Kremlin propaganda tool.

Russia and North Korea are erasing history: Over 15 heritage sites destroyed in a single night as Putin’s forces launched North Korean ballistic missiles at Odesa on Friday.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
blueshoes · 01/02/2025 13:49

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-31-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • The United Kingdom (UK), Finland, and Czechia announced several immediate and longer-term military assistance packages for Ukraine on January 31.
  • Russian forces are expanding their salient north of Kupyansk as part of long-term operational efforts to push Ukrainian forces from the east (left) bank of the Oskil River.
  • Elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA) (Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly leading the Russian effort to expand the salient north of Kupyansk.
  • Elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA) (Moscow Military District [MMD]) are also participating in the envelopment of Kupyansk and are attempting to advance east of Kupyansk and to expand the Russian salient south of Kupyansk near Kruhlyakivka likely in order to prepare for advances south of Kupyansk, cross the Oskil River, and pressure Borova.
  • Russian forces appear to be developing and disseminating a doctrinal method for advances throughout the theater that aims to conduct slow envelopments of frontline towns and settlements at a scale that is reasonable for Russian forces to conclude before culminating.
  • The Russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude. Russian commanders are likely operating under the assumption or direct knowledge that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine in the near future.
  • This Russian offensive method is bringing about slow operational maneuver on the battlefield, but these envelopments require significant planning, foresight, manpower, and equipment and do not restore rapid, mechanized maneuver to the battlefield.
  • Russian forces are also intensifying their efforts to close the remaining Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove.
  • Moldovan and Transnistrian authorities agreed to accept a European Union (EU) package that includes funding for gas purchases for Transnistria, further limiting Russia’s economic influence over the pro-Russian breakaway republic.
  • Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast amid continued strikes against Russian energy and defense industrial infrastructure.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
  • Western and Ukrainian officials continue to report that North Korean forces have withdrawn from frontline positions in Kursk Oblast.
PerkingFaintly · 01/02/2025 20:35

Oh that's really shit about Odesa. A UNESCO world heritage site.

I know it's property, not lives, but that's still hard to see.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 02/02/2025 09:46

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Russia strikes nursing home (kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-nursing-home-in-kursk-regions-sudzha-ukraines-general-staff-reports/) in Kursk region's Sudzha, Ukraine's General Staff reports.
"At the time of the attack, dozens of local residents were inside the building preparing to evacuate," Ukraine's military said on Feb. 1, adding that nearly 95 people could be trapped under the rubble.

⚑️'They killed Syrians the same way' β€” Zelensky condemns (kyivindependent.com/they-killed-syrians-the-same-way-zelensky-condemns-alleged-russian-strike-on-civilians-in-kursk-oblast/) alleged Russian strike on civilians in Kursk Oblast.
Zelensky condemned Russia's alleged bombing of a nursing home on Feb. 1, comparing the attack on civilians to Russian war crimes in Chechnya, Syria, and Ukraine.

⚑️Emergency power cuts temporarily introduced (kyivindependent.com/emergency-power-cuts-introduced-across-ukraine-after-russian-attack/) across Ukraine after Russian missile attack.
The restrictions were applied in seven oblasts to prevent the collapse of the energy system, according to Ukraine's state grid operator Ukrenergo.

⚑️Russia’s new naval base raises fears of Georgia’s involvement (kyivindependent.com/russias-new-naval-base-raises-fears-of-georgias-involvement-in-ukraine-war-wsj-reports/) in Ukraine war, WSJ reports.
Ochamchire, more than 700 kilometers southeast of the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory, could provide Moscow with a naval base that remains largely beyond the range of Ukraine’s existing long-range strikes.

⚑️Poland scrambles jets (kyivindependent.com/poland-scrambles-jets-alerts-air-defense-during-russian-missile-attack/), puts air defense on high alert during Russian missile attack on Ukraine.
Polish and other allied aircraft were quickly mobilized on Feb. 1 in response to a large-scale missile attack by Russia on western Ukraine, Poland's Armed Forces reported on X.
"Attention, due to the attack of the Russian Federation performing strikes on facilities located in the west of Ukraine, among others, the operation of Polish and allied aviation in our airspace has begun,” the statement said.

⚑️Trump launches trade war with steep tariffs (kyivindependent.com/trump-launches-trade-war-with-steep-tariffs-on-china-canada-mexico/) on China, Canada, Mexico.
Trump placed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, with only a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports. He also imposed a 10% tariff on goods from China.

Kidnapped Belarusian soldier fighting for Ukraine paraded (kyivindependent.com/kidnapped-belarusian-soldier-who-fought-for-ukraine-forced-to-confess-in-belarusian-state-controlled-tv-interview/) on Belarusian state-controlled television

⚑️Massive fire (kyivindependent.com/massive-fire-breaks-out-at-kharkiv-warehouse-after-russian-drone-attack/) breaks out at Kharkiv warehouse after Russian drone attack.
The fire spread over an area of 2,000 meters at a civilian enterprise in the city's Slobidskyi district. No casualties have been reported.

⚑️UPDATED: Death toll in Russian missile strike on Poltava rises to 12, (kyivindependent.com/at-least-3-dead-10-injured-in-poltava-after-russia-attacks-residential-building/) including 2 children.
The attack injured another 17 people, including four children, Ukraine's State Emergency Service reported the morning of Feb. 2. Search and rescue operations are ongoing at the site of the attack.

ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬

  • FEB 2, 2025 β–  Engagements & casualties below 7-day average β–  Equipment losses stay above average; good artillery losses β–  Improved strike ratio, πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί missile strikes (no reported interception)
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
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