Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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Losses:

United24 Media:

🔹 A delegation from the French army, led by Land Forces Commander Pierre Schille, visited Ukraine for several days.

The visit aimed to strengthen cooperation, share expertise, and discuss further military assistance.

🔸 The Azerbaijani parliament has warned Russia of potential deterioration in relations over what it describes as lies surrounding the downing of a plane near Aktau, The Moscow Times reports.

Rasim Musabekov, a member of the Azerbaijani Mejlis's international affairs committee, stated that an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) Embraer 190, flying from Baku to Grozny, was struck by a Russian air defense system (ADS) before crashing in Aktau. "The plane was shot down on Russian territory, in the sky over Grozny, and it is impossible to deny this," Musabekov said in an interview with Turan.

Musabekov criticized the Russian authorities for their response, accusing them of attempting to cover up the incident through media manipulation rather than offering an apology or holding those responsible accountable. "Those who did this must be held criminally liable, and compensation must be paid for the deaths and injuries. If this does not happen, relations will undoubtedly take a negative turn," he warned.

The crash claimed the lives of 38 of the 67 people on board. Before crashing in Kazakhstan, the plane was reportedly fired upon by Russian air defenses repelling a drone attack over Chechnya.

Russian federal TV channels have avoided reporting the missile strike, instead attributing the crash to a collision with birds, which allegedly damaged the engines and caused an oxygen tank to explode. However, passengers, Western experts, and Ukrainian intelligence have all confirmed that the plane was hit by a missile fired by a Russian Pantsir system.

🔹 Another Russian-linked tanker, the Cordelia Moon, has broken down in the Black Sea, Reuters reports.

The tanker, en route to Russia, caused a traffic halt in the Bosphorus on Thursday, December 26, after its engine failed near Cape Yenikey. Türkiye's Transport Ministry stated that the strait was completely blocked, and a tugboat was dispatched to assist.

The Cordelia Moon, a 274-meter vessel sailing under the Panamanian flag, was traveling from the Turkish port of Yalova to Novorossiysk. Built in 2006, it is reportedly part of the Kremlin's "shadow fleet," which facilitates the circumvention of sanctions on Russian oil. The ship has frequently conducted trade voyages between Russia and India.

On September 30, the tanker was attacked by Houthis in the Red Sea, who mistook it for a British oil tanker. A drone strike caused a fire onboard, though the crew remained unharmed.

This incident marks at least the fourth Russian-linked tanker to experience a breakdown in the Black Sea within the past two weeks, according to the agency.

🔸 Zelenskyy announced that the United States is increasing its military aid deliveries to Ukraine.

The president emphasized the urgent need for greater military strength and a solid foundation for diplomatic efforts. He urged international partners to accelerate aid shipments to counter the momentum of Russian attacks effectively.

🔹 Russia has used Western equipment to develop the Oreshnik missile, according to The Financial Times.

Two Russian weapons engineering institutes, identified by Ukrainian intelligence as key developers of the Oreshnik missile, have been advertising for employees experienced in working with metalworking systems from German and Japanese manufacturers. The Moscow Institute of Heat Engineering and Sozvezdiya, tracked by the publication, highlight the Kremlin's ongoing dependence on foreign technology, despite sanctions.

A critical technology in missile production is computer numerical control (CNC), which enables high-precision shaping of materials. Advertisements from these institutes specify familiarity with CNC systems made by companies like Japan's Fanuc and Germany's Siemens and Heidenhain—leaders in high-precision control systems.

This reliance extends beyond just these institutes. A video posted earlier this year by Titan-Barricades, another company involved in Oreshnik production, showed a worker operating equipment with a Fanuc control unit. Despite efforts to develop domestic alternatives, Russia continues to use foreign-made CNC tools, often paired with controllers manufactured in the West.

China has become a significant supplier of CNC machines to Russia, but even these often include Western-made controllers. For example, at a 2024 Russian trade show, 11 of the 12 CNC models presented by Chinese companies featured Japanese or German control systems.

Denys Khutyk of Ukraine's Economic Security Council highlighted the implications: "The development of Oreshnik shows how dependent the Russian military-industrial complex still is on high-end Western equipment. Western governments should act to stop the supply of these goods, which directly contribute to Russia's aggression."

Despite export controls, Western CNC components have continued to reach Russia, with shipments since early 2024 valued at over $3 million. These include the latest Heidenhain TNC640 control unit, smuggled via intermediaries such as China to sanctioned Russian defense contractors like the Baltic Industrial Company.

The head of the Baltic Industrial Company, Diana Kaledina, was previously charged with importing CNC machines from China and falsely labeling them as Russian-made. Although the case was dropped in 2022, citing potential harm to Russia's machine tool industry, it underscores the challenges of enforcing export restrictions.

This ongoing flow of Western technology into Russia's defense sector raises questions about the effectiveness of sanctions and the need for stricter oversight.

🔹 Russian paranoia about the “NATO threat” has reached new heights. The Russians have released a “New Year’s video” depicting Santa Claus being shot down over the Kremlin by Russia’s "powerful" air defense systems.

Following the scene, a Russian version of Santa Claus appears, proclaiming: “We don’t need anything foreign.” Notably, the video shows missiles in Santa’s sleigh, some of which bear NATO stickers.

🔸 NATO must possess long-range weapons to counter the threat posed by the Oreshnik missile, according to Admiral Pierre Vandieu, NATO's commander for transformation.

"Stability is the ability to respond. If Russia has the means to strike 2,000 kilometers into Europe, you need to be able to respond. Deterrence pressures the enemy before they act, forcing them to consider the consequences. Today, we see the exact opposite," Vandieu told Defense News.

He emphasized that relying on a system similar to Israel's Iron Dome for Europe would not be effective. "You’ve seen the limits of the Iron Dome in Israel. Given Europe’s size, the idea of eliminating the threat by creating a European Iron Dome is simply not feasible. It’s like batteries for electricity—it just won’t work," he explained.

The admiral also pointed out that many stabilization measures established after the Cold War have failed in recent years, citing the breakdown of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which both the United States and Russia abandoned.

"We are back to the situation of the 1980s, when long-range ballistic missiles posed a significant threat to Europe. Now, we find ourselves in an era where such missiles can be used without restraint," Vandieu warned.

🔹 The Ministry of Defense has approved the use of the domestic unmanned all-terrain vehicle "Ravlyk" ("Snail").

According to the defense department, the robotic platform is equipped with hermetic protection against dust, dirt, and moisture, ensuring reliable operation in challenging weather conditions. Additionally, its electric motor and all-terrain tires enable the Ravlyk to move with remarkable quietness, enhancing its operational effectiveness.

🔸 Estonia plans to request NATO to deploy a "deterrence fleet" in the Baltic Sea following the cutting of a submarine cable, Prime Minister Kristen Michal announced.

Michal stated that consultations on the matter would take place under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which allows member states to discuss threats to their security, territorial integrity, or political independence.

"Damage to critical infrastructure is becoming increasingly common. This recurring problem means countries must enhance their infrastructure protection, improve ship interception capabilities, and ensure faster identification of those responsible," Michal said, emphasizing the need for stronger monitoring of potential threats.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte affirmed the alliance's support for Estonia. "NATO stands with its allies and condemns any attacks on critical infrastructure. We are closely monitoring the investigations by Estonia and Finland and are ready to provide additional assistance," Rutte stated.

🔹 Two days after the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane, Rosaviatsia head Sergey Yadrov provided an explanation, citing an attack by Ukrainian drones on Grozny Airport and the "carpet" air defense regime implemented at the time.

Yadrov also mentioned dense fog at the airport as a complicating factor. He claimed the aircraft captain made two unsuccessful landing attempts and was offered alternative airports but "chose to proceed to Aktau" on his own initiative.

🔸 ⚡️ Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has threatened to cut off backup electricity supplies to Ukraine if Kyiv halts the transit of Russian gas to Central Europe, reports Bloomberg.

“After January 1, we will evaluate the situation and consider retaliatory measures against Ukraine. If needed, we will cut off the electricity supplies that Ukraine urgently requires,” Fico stated.

🔹 Russia’s influence is waning: Ukraine has received American liquefied natural gas (LNG) via Greece for the first time, reports The Financial Times.

This delivery comes as the five-year agreement on Russian gas transit through Ukraine nears its expiration and with Trump’s inauguration looming, amid threats to impose tariffs on Europe if it doesn’t increase purchases of American energy.

Under the agreement, LNG purchases will continue through 2026, with an additional 20-year deal in place for further supplies.

🔸 Russians are upgrading Shahed drones with artificial intelligence for more precise strikes, according to Ukraine’s EU ambassador, Vsevolod Chentsov.

Speaking to Politico, Chentsov said the AI-enhanced drones are harder to counter with electronic warfare. These drones can autonomously identify targets, such as power plants, and execute attacks without requiring an Internet connection.

🔹 White House: North Korea’s losses in Ukraine have reached 1,000.

John Kirby reported that North Korean troops fighting alongside Russia in its war against Ukraine are experiencing “massive losses.” According to Reuters, Kirby’s estimate of 1,000 casualties is notably higher than previous figures cited by U.S. officials.

🔸 ✈️ Flydubai has canceled flights from Sochi and Dubai’s Ministry of Water Resources routes from December 28 to January 5, citing threats to flight safety.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly rejected a suggestion reportedly considered by US President-elect Donald Trump's team in early November 2024 that would delay Ukraine's membership in NATO for at least a decade as a condition for ending the war in Ukraine.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Putin's false claims that the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and cannot be a legitimate negotiating partner for Russia.
• Russian forces have likely seized Kurakhove following two months of intensified offensive operations aimed at seizing the settlement and eliminating the Ukrainian salient north and south of the settlement.
• Russian forces may struggle to advance rapidly further west of Kurakhove along the H-15 Kurakhove-Pokrovske highway should Ukrainian forces choose to defend in the Kurakhivska TPP and Russian forces fail to outflank Ukrainian positions in the TPP near Dachne or Ulakly.
• Elements of the 51st CAA have been the main forces participating in the seizure of Kurakhove amid ongoing efforts to centralize and formalize elements of the 51st CAA within the Russian military.
• Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of December 24 to 25, seriously damaging thermal power plants (TPPs).
• Ukrainian forces conducted a successful strike on December 25 against the command post of a Russian unit operating in Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot in Rostov Oblast and Russian defense industrial base (DIB) facilities in Rostov and Tambov oblasts on December 25 and 26.
• A Russian air defense system reportedly shot an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger aircraft over the Republic of Chechnya on December 25, after which the plane crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan.
• A Russian insider source, who is reportedly affiliated with Russian law enforcement, claimed that an air defense missile likely struck the plane at an altitude of 2,400 meters approximately 18 kilometers northwest of the Grozny airport over Naursky Raion.
• Japan will provide Ukraine with $3 billion in non-lethal assistance generated solely from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian milbloggers acknowledged that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is attempting to monopolize crowdfunding efforts for the Russian military amid ongoing fallout from the deaths of two Russian drone operators in September 2024.

”Two days after the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane, Rosaviatsia head Sergey Yadrov provided an explanation, citing an attack by Ukrainian drones on Grozny Airport and the "carpet" air defense regime implemented at the time.
Yadrov also mentioned dense fog at the airport as a complicating factor. He claimed the aircraft captain made two unsuccessful landing attempts and was offered alternative airports but "chose to proceed to Aktau" on his own initiative.”

We’re still very much at the speculation stage when it comes to this crash but it looks like that is sort of a politicians answer, not exactly wrong but short on detail.

The rough sequence of events looks to possibly have been:

GPS jamming at Grozny plus some of the airport ground equipment being out of use forced the Azerbaijani crew to attempt an approach of a type that really wasn’t the best given the poor visibility.

They had two attempts, failed on both, and it was in the go-around and climb out from the second approach that they got hit by whatever hit them…then the serious handling problems commenced.

The weather at Grozny and at the only other suitable airport on the north west side of the Caspian (Makhachkala) was poor so it’s quite possible the Azerbaijan captain opted to head east for the better weather at and around Aktau.

3 senior Russian officers killed kyivindependent.com/3-senior-russian-officers-killed-in-himars-drone-attack-ukraines-military-intelligence-says/ in HIMARS, drone attack, Ukraine’s military intelligence says.
Video released by HUR shows a large explosion followed by what appears to be the detonation of a cluster munition.

Ukraine sends kyivindependent.com/ukraine-sends-500-tons-of-wheat-flour-to-syria-under-humanitarian-program-zelensky-says/ 500 tons of wheat flour to Syria under humanitarian program, Zelensky says.
Ukraine has sent 500 tons of wheat flour to Syria as part of its "Grain from Ukraine" initiative, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Dec. 27.
The aid aims to help alleviate a looming food crisis following the collapse of the Russia-backed regime of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Dec. 8 amid a large-scale rebel offensive.

Ukraine working kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-extend-basic-military-training-to-2-months-syrskyi-says/ to extend basic training to 2 months, Syrskyi says.
Ukraine’s military leadership plans to extend basic military training to two months to enhance the preparedness and safety of soldiers, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced on Dec. 27.
The initiative follows consultations with the General Staff, branch commanders, and leaders of individual combat units.

Russia ramps up production kyivindependent.com/russia-ramps-up-production-of-shahed-drones-decoys-at-tatarstan-plant-cnn-reports/ of Shahed drones, decoys at Tatarstan plant, CNN reports.
Russia has significantly increased the production of Shahed-136 drones and cheaper decoy drones at the Yelabuga drone factory in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, CNN reported on Dec. 27.
This facility, located over 1,300 kilometers from the Ukraine border, plays a critical role in Moscow’s drone manufacturing strategy.

Loud bang kyivindependent.com/loud-bang-heard-before-azerbaijan-airlines-crashed-passengers-tell-reuters/ heard before Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed, passengers tell Reuters.
The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) on Dec. 27 said the aircraft had been hit by “a Russian Pantsir S1 air defense system on Russian terrain.”

45% of Ukrainians kyivindependent.com/45-of-ukrainians-see-trumps-election-bringing-peace-closer-poll-finds/ think Trump’s election will bring peace closer, survey finds.
Nearly half of Ukrainians believe that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election could bring peace closer in the ongoing war, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology published on Dec. 27.
The survey, conducted from Dec. 2 to 17 with 985 telephone respondents, reveals a blend of optimism and skepticism regarding Trump’s potential influence on the war.

Ukraine completes kyivindependent.com/ukraine-continues-preparations-for-second-global-peace-summit-foreign-ministry-says/ preparations for second peace summit, Foreign Ministry says.
Ukraine has completed necessary preparations for the second global peace summit, though work is ongoing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said during a Dec. 27 briefing.
While Ukraine aimed to hold the summit before the end of 2024, Tykhyi said the focus is on achieving substantive outcomes rather than organizing “an event for the sake of an event.”

Ukraine repelling kyivindependent.com/ukraine-repelling-russian-attempt-to-gain-foothold-in-kherson-oblast-military-says/ Russian attempt to gain foothold in Kherson Oblast, military says.
Ukrainian troops have thwarted a Russian attempt to gain a foothold on one of its islands on the Dnipro River delta, Vladyslav Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian military's Southern Command, said on national TV on Dec. 27.
"Over the past day, (Russia) continued its attempts to land on Kozatsky Island, but was unsuccessful, suffered losses and was unable to land," Voloshyn said, adding that Russia had suffered "losses in equipment, in particular, in boats, watercraft, and personnel."

'Weapon' may have brought down kyivindependent.com/weapon-brought-down-azerbaijan-airlines-plane-azerbaijan-transport-minister-says/ Azerbaijan Airlines plane, Azerbaijan's transport minister says.
Azerbaijani Transport Minister Rashad Nabiyev said on Dec. 27 that an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan was due to 'external interference,' with authorities investigating "the type of weapon used in the interference."
"This is evidenced by the appearance of the aircraft debris on the ground and eyewitness accounts," Nabiyev said during a news conference, Azerbaijani media outlet Report reported.

China’s Xi Jinping to visit Russia kyivindependent.com/chinas-xi-jinping-to-visit-russia-next-year-kremlins-beijing-ambassador-says/ next year, Kremlin’s Beijing ambassador says.
Ambassador Igor Morgulov said plans for several bilateral events were being "drawn up" but that Xi’s trip was a priority.

Ukraine Reforms Tracker Weekly — Issue 6 kyivindependent.com/ukraine-reforms-tracker-weekly-issue-6/
In this week's edition: Ukraine's Parliament made a first step toward establishing a consolidated public investment fund, while also amending the National Program for the Development of Ukraine's Mineral Resource Base through 2030.

Construction of fortifications in Zaporizhzhia complete kyivindependent.com/construction-of-fortifications-in-zaporizhzhia-fully-complete-shmyhal-says/ Shmyhal says.
The construction of fortifications in Zaporizhzhia and nearby settlements has been "100% completed," Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Dec. 27.
Ukraine has been building heavy fortifications near the city of Zaporizhzhia in preparations for a potential Russian offensive in the region.

Ukraine receives kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-485-million-in-humanitarian-aid-from-usaid-world-bank/ $485 million in humanitarian aid from USAID, World Bank.
The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), in coordination with the World Bank under the PEACE in Ukraine program, has delivered $485 million in humanitarian aid for Ukraine, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Dec. 27.
According to Shmyhal, $465 million in humanitarian came from USAID, while a further $20 million was provided by the World Bank.

Belarus Weekly — 2024 in review: Drone incursions, deepening alliance with Russia, totalitarianism kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-2024-in-review-drone-incursions-deepening-alliance-with-russia-totalitarianism/
Here is the round-up of key events that happened in Belarus in 2024.
In this edition: Lukashenko further solidifies military allegiance to Russia; Russian combat-drone incursions became an everyday reality in Belarus; and more.

Fall of Assad’s regime disrupts Russian army recruitment in Syria kyivindependent.com/fall-of-assads-regime-disrupts-russian-recruitment-in-syria/
The collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria following a lightning rebel offensive in November has shaken Assad-ally Russia’s near-decade of influence in the country.
It has also had one other lesser-known consequence: disrupting Moscow’s ability to recruit Syrian fighters for its war in Ukraine.
The Kyiv Independent spent several months analyzing Russian recruitment in Syria.

NATO to 'enhance military presence' in Baltic Sea following damage kyivindependent.com/nato-to-enhance-military-presence-in-baltic-sea-following-damage-to-undersea-power-cable-rutte-says/ to undersea power cable, Rutte says.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Dec. 27 that "NATO will enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea" following the recent damage to the Estlink 2 power cable in the Gulf of Finland, likely caused by Russia.
Finnish police announced in a press conference on Dec. 26 that recent damage to the cable in the Gulf of Finland was likely caused by an anchor onboard a Russian tanker believed to be a part of Moscow's "shadow fleet."

US officials believe Ukraine may be forced to retreat kyivindependent.com/us-officials-believe-ukraine-may-be-forced-to-retreat-from-kursk-oblast-in-spring-bloomberg-reports/ from Kursk Oblast in spring, Bloomberg reports.
U.S. officials told Bloomberg on Dec. 27 that they believe Ukraine may only have a few months left in its incursion into Kursk Oblast until Ukraine's military is forced to retreat from the region or risk being encircled by Russian forces.

2024: Ukraine in photos kyivindependent.com/2025-ukraine-in-photos/
The Kyiv Independent partners up with the Ukrainian Association of Professional Photographers to look back at some of the most memorable moments for Ukrainians in 2024 in photos.
Photo: Danylo Pavlov/UAPP

Exposing the diamond industry — How Russia funds its war on Ukraine
While the diamond industry markets itself as a beacon of luxury, the complex web of global trade hides dark, brutal reality. Despite sanctions and growing scrutiny, Russian diamonds continue to enter the global market, funding Moscow’s war against Ukraine.

Ukraine war latest: Russia's new Oreshnik missile relies on Western manufacturing technology, kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russias-new-oreshnik-missile-relies-on-western-manufacturing-technology-ft-reports/ FT reports
Russia's new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, recently fired at Ukraine, was developed using advanced manufacturing equipment from Western companies, despite sanctions, The Financial Times reported on Dec. 27.
Three senior Russian officers have been killed in a Ukrainian strike using HIMARS and drones in an occupied area of Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said on Dec. 27.

Zelensky urges kyivindependent.com/zelensky-urges-china-to-help-stop-north-korean-military-aid-to-russia/ China to help stop North Korean military aid to Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelensky urged China to use its influence over North Korea to prevent the deployment of North Korean soldiers to the frontline, during his evening address on Dec. 27.
He emphasized the severe losses in Kursk Oblast that North Korean soldiers have faced thus far.

Slovakia threatens to cut kyivindependent.com/slovakia-threatens-to-cut-electricity-supplies-if-ukraine-ends-russian-gas-transit/ electricity supplies if Ukraine ends Russian gas transit.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico announced on Dec. 27 that his government will evaluate potential reciprocal measures against Ukraine, including halting electricity supplies, if Ukraine stops the transit of Russian gas to Slovakia after January 1.

Kyiv running out of ATACMS kyivindependent.com/kyiv-running-out-of-atacms-missiles-nyt-reports/ missiles, NYT reports.
Two senior U.S. officials said that when Biden gave Kyiv permission to launch ATACMS into Russian territory, Ukraine likely had only about 50 of the missiles left in its arsenal.

Drone strike damages railway kyivindependent.com/drone-strike-damages-railway-line-in-russias-voronezh-oblast-governor-claims/ line in Russia's Voronezh Oblast, governor claims.
Debris from an intercepted drone damaged the contact network of a railway in Russia's Voronezh Oblast overnight on Dec. 28, regional Governor Alexander Gusev alleged.

US to send $1.25 billion kyivindependent.com/us-to-send-1-25-billion-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-on-monday/ in military aid to Ukraine, AP reports.
The upcoming aid package is expected to include a substantial supply of air defense munitions, along with Stinger missiles and artillery rounds, according to U.S. officials.

Ukrainian drones can hit targets 2,000 km kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-can-hit-targets-2-000-km-away-military-intelligence-claims/ away, military intelligence claims.
"From what we can tell — it's no longer a secret — Ukrainian long-range unmanned aerial vehicles can hypothetically operate up to 2,000 kilometers," military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov said.

North Korean troops suffer over 1,000 losses kyivindependent.com/north-korean-troops-endure-mass-casualties-in-russias-war-against-ukraine-john-kirby-says/ in Kursk Oblast in past week, White House official says.
"It is clear that Russian and North Korean military leaders are treating these troops as expendable and ordering them on hopeless assaults against Ukrainian defenses," National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby said on Dec. 27.

Ukraine plans to open over 150 underground schools
kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-open-up-to-10-underground-schools-by-year-end/ by fall 2025.
There are currently 79 underground education facilities under active construction, Deputy Education Minister Nadiia Kuzmychova said.

Russian airport suspends flights kyivindependent.com/russian-airport-suspend-flights-after-ukraine-drone-attack-official-reports/ after Ukraine drone attack, official claims.
Operations at the airport were suspended at 6 a.m. amid a Ukrainian drone attack allegedly targeting the Russian regions of Voronezh, Rostov, and Belgorod.

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Dec. 28, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Dec. 28, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-27-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russia has continued to expand its domestic production capabilities of Iranian-designed Shahed drones ahead of its Winter 2024–2025 strike campaign against Ukraine.
• Russia has yet to address limitations in its ability to produce and field Shahed drones, however, and will likely continue to struggle with these limitations in 2025.
• North Korean forces are continuing to experience high casualty rates amid recent confirmation of the first captured North Korean soldier in Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces recently conducted a HIMARS strike against a Russian staff meeting in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, reportedly killing three Russian officers, following Ukrainian warnings about the possibility of renewed Russian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast
• Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) attempted to blame weather conditions and the pilot’s response to the Russian emergency airspace closure over the Republic of Chechnya for the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger aircraft crash in Aktau, Kazakhstan on December 25.
• A Russian insider source — who is reportedly affiliated with Russian law enforcement and released an alleged transcript of the communications between the crew and a Russian air traffic control in Grozny — accused Rosaviatsiya of attempting to conceal the misuse of Russian air defense systems.
• Finnish authorities seized the Russian-owned Eagle S crude oil tanker on suspicion that the vessel was recently involved in damaging undersea electricity and telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea but noted that it is too soon to conclude that Russia is behind the cable disruptions.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to head the newly established Scientific Expert Council of the Russian Security Council.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Siversk and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, and in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.
• Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to increase the value of enlistment bonuses to incentivize military recruitment.

Live: Ukraine

🇺🇸 The U.S.* is set to announcece_ a new $1.25 billion aid package for Ukraine on December 30, according to AP, citing American officials.

The package is expected to include a “significant quantity” of ammunition for NASAMS and HAWK air defense systems, Stinger missiles, and 155mm and 105mm artillery shells.

🇰🇵"The sins I committed are unforgivable, but my homeland gave me a path to rebirth," wrote an eliminated North Korean soldier in his notebook, justifying why he was sent to fight against Ukrainians alongside Russia.

Ukrainian forces recovered the notebook from Private Gyeong Hong Jong, who identified himself as a former Master Sergeant of an elite unit called "Kim Jong Un's Red Special Forces."

He didn't state what kind of transgressions against the regime he committed, but he seemingly believed that he was defending North Korea in Russia's Kursk Oblast.

"Defending the homeland is a sacred duty of a citizen, which constitutes all my happiness. I will unquestioningly follow Supreme Commander Kim Jong Un's orders, even if it costs me my life," he wrote.

📷Command of Ukraine's Special Operations Forces

🔹 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s statement about potentially halting electricity exports to Ukraine.

“It seems Putin has tasked Fico with opening a second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the Slovak people,” Zelensky wrote.

He highlighted that Slovakia accounts for approximately 19% of Ukraine’s imported electricity. Zelensky also noted that Fico’s shortsighted policies have already deprived the Slovak people of compensation for the loss of Russian gas transit and risk forfeiting at least $200 million annually that Ukraine pays for imported electricity.

🤡 Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for the “tragic incident” involving an Azerbaijan Airlines plane.

In a phone call, Putin and Aliyev discussed the crash, though the Russian leader did not explicitly confirm that the plane was damaged by Russian air defense systems. The Kremlin stated that the aircraft had made multiple attempts to land at Grozny airport.

“During this time, Grozny, Mozdok, and Vladikavkaz were under attack by Ukrainian combat drones, and Russian air defense systems were repelling these strikes,” the Kremlin’s statement noted.

Additionally, the Kremlin announced that Russia’s Investigative Committee has launched a probe into the incident under charges related to violations of air transport safety and operation regulations.

🔸 Ukrainian-manufactured drones now cover over 96% of the Defense Forces’ needs, according to Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

This year, Ukrainian companies have produced:

🔴 Over 1.5 million FPV drones;
🔴 Strike copter bombers;
🔴 Kamikaze drones;
🔴 Reconnaissance wing drones;
🔴 Long-range deep-strike drones.

🤯 Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson stars in the Ukrainian film “Train to December 31.”

The comedy is set to hit theaters on January 1.

🔹 Greece will transfer 24 Sea Sparrow short-range shipborne anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.

These missiles have been in service with the Greek Navy and Air Force for over 40 years but are now deemed unnecessary under Greek military standards.

The Sea Sparrow, an American-made short-range surface-to-air missile, is designed to protect ships against missile attacks. Ukraine already has the necessary launchers to deploy these missiles, including Soviet-era Buk systems and FrankenSAM units.

🇬🇪Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili has received an invitation to Donald Trump’s inauguration

Meanwhile, the Georgian Dream party announced that Zourabichvili’s term ends tomorrow, and former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili will assume the presidency.

In response, Zourabichvili stated she would not leave the presidential palace and called on citizens to gather there in the morning.

Today, Georgia also witnessed a large-scale “Unity Chain” protest, with the president joining the demonstration.

United24 Media:

🔹 Production at Russian refineries has dropped to a 12-year low due to Ukrainian drone attacks, reports The Moscow Times.

By the end of 2024, oil refining at Russian facilities is projected to reach 266.9 million tons, the lowest level since 2012, when 265.4 million tons were processed.

A series of drone attacks throughout 2024 forced unscheduled equipment repairs, significantly impacting refinery operations.

🔸 On December 27, the United States imposed sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, a pro-Russian oligarch and founder of Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added Ivanishvili to its Russia-related sanctions list.

No additional details were provided by the agency.

🔹 HUR (Main Intelligence Directorate), in coordination with the SBU (Special Security Services), eliminated three captains from the command of Russia’s 4th Guards Military Base in the Zaporizhzhia region.

A HIMARS strike destroyed:
• The battalion commander of the 135th Motorized Rifle Regiment.
• The deputy chief of staff for intelligence of the 135th Motorized Rifle Regiment.
• The commander of the anti-aircraft battery of the 4th Guards Military Base.
• Five vehicles.

🔸 The Foreign Ministry has shared plans for Ukraine’s second Peace Summit.

“Ukraine has prepared everything for the second Summit on Peace,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tykhyi. “All thematic conferences have been held, agreeing on common positions regarding the points of the peace formula. This puts Ukraine in a strong diplomatic position, with everything ready.”

However, Tykhyi emphasized that thorough preparation is still essential for the summit’s success.

😱 Ukraine is now the most mined country in the world, reports the media.

As of early 2024, 156,000 square kilometers of territory remain potentially hazardous.

🔥 Defense Forces Destroy Shahed Repair Base in Orel Region

On December 26, Ukraine’s Defense Forces targeted a secure Russian military facility in the Orel region, where Shahed drones were being repaired.

The strike reportedly destroyed the storage, maintenance, and repair facility for Shahed kamikaze drones, which was housed in reinforced concrete structures.

🔹 European institutions and EU member states should follow the U.S. lead and impose sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, the honorary president of Georgia’s ruling party, said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budris.

“Finally, the U.S. has sanctioned Bidzina Ivanishvili. I welcome this decision. He is already on the national sanctions lists of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Ukraine,” Budris wrote.

The minister emphasized that it is now time for EU institutions and member states to take similar action.

🔸 💬 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded to Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s threats to cut electricity supplies to Ukraine over its decision to halt Russian gas transit after 2024.

“It seems that Putin has instructed Fico to open a second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the Slovak people,” Zelenskyy stated. “Fico’s threats to cut emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine during winter amid Russian strikes can only mean this.”

He also reminded Fico that “supporting criminal Russian aggression is absolutely immoral.”

🇬🇷🇺🇦 Greece to Supply Ukraine with RIM-7 Sea Sparrow Missiles

Greece will provide Ukraine with 24 RIM-7 Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles, according to Ekathimerini.

The missiles come from the reserves of the Greek Navy and Air Force.

🔹 Russian Gazprom to Halt Gas Supplies to Moldova Starting January 1, 2025

Gazprom has announced that it will terminate natural gas deliveries to Moldova, citing the failure of Moldovagaz to meet payment obligations as a material breach of contract.

“Based on the provisions of the contract and Russian legislation, PJSC Gazprom is imposing restrictions on natural gas supplies to the Republic of Moldova,” the notice to Moldovagaz stated.

In October, Moldova’s then-Energy Minister Viktor Parlicov declared that the country would no longer rely on Russian gas. “We are already sourcing gas from alternative suppliers, at prices lower than the formula in the contract with Gazprom,” he said.

Meanwhile, Russian-occupied Transnistria will continue receiving Russian gas and is exploring ways to ensure its supply after the cessation of transit through Ukraine.

🔸 Telegram Blocks Russian Propaganda Channels in the EU

Telegram has restricted access to several Russian state propaganda channels in the European Union. Among the blocked channels are RIA Novosti, NTV, Rossiya 1, Izvestia, and RT. These channels are now unavailable to users in EU countries.

🔹 Moldova Responds to Russian Threats of Gas Cutoff

Moldovagaz emphasized that since 2022, all Russian gas has been directed to the Russian-occupied Transnistria, while the free part of Moldova has relied on purchases from regional and European markets.

The company confirmed that sufficient gas volumes have been contracted to meet consumption needs on the right bank until the end of March 2025.

In Transnistria, Russian gas has primarily been used to generate electricity at the Transnistrian GRES. To prepare for the cessation of gas transit through Ukraine, the plant has transitioned to coal to avoid shutdowns.

Gazprom has announced it will halt gas supplies to Moldova at 8:00 a.m. Moscow time on January 1, 2025, citing unpaid debts. Notably, this coincides with Ukraine’s planned termination of Russian gas transit at 7:00 a.m. Kyiv time.

🔹 Emergency Declared in Occupied Crimea After Tanker Spill

Nearly two weeks after the Volgoneft tanker accident, a regional state of emergency has been declared in occupied Crimea. Sergei Aksenov, the so-called “head” of Crimea, signed the decree, designating Kerch and the Leninsky district as a technogenic emergency zone.

Measures include round-the-clock monitoring of the coastal zone, collecting oil products, emergency response, and restoration work. Cleanup efforts also target the Komysh-Burunskaya CHPP’s water intake bucket. Volunteers are assisting in monitoring and collecting fuel oil.

The accident on December 15 caused over 4,000 tons of fuel oil to spill into the Black Sea. Environmentalists warn that in cold water, the fuel oil sinks, devastating marine life. More than 20 Azov dolphins have died, and plants and seabed ecosystems are at risk.

Reports indicate only 1% of the fuel oil in the sea has been cleaned. Contaminated sand removal has proven difficult, yet the Russian Federation has not requested international assistance.

🔸 Ukrainian Special Operations Forces Reveal Note from North Korean Special Forces Officer in Russia

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have published a note purportedly written by a North Korean special forces officer, shedding light on Pyongyang’s involvement in aiding Russian troops. The note reveals that North Korea did not send ordinary soldiers but elite fighters to support Russia, reportedly as a punishment for offenses committed by these individuals.

Private Kyong Hong Jong, the author of the note, claims he was deployed thousands of kilometers away on the orders of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. He writes that he believes his mission in the Russian Kursk region is indirectly protecting North Korea.

“I grew up in the bosom of a blessed party, studied to my heart’s content without worry. I was surrounded by unknown love and happiness I could not fully comprehend. Defending the homeland is a sacred duty, and my greatest duty lies in serving and protecting the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. I was honored to rise to the rank of sergeant major in my company. Yet, I betrayed the party that trusted me and committed ungrateful acts against the Supreme Commander,” the soldier wrote in his message.

The note suggests a strong ideological motivation behind the deployment of these elite fighters, even as the soldier admits to personal failings that led to his assignment abroad. This revelation highlights the unusual alliance between Russia and North Korea amidst the ongoing conflict.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be trying to smooth over possible tensions in the Russian-Azerbaijani and Russian-Kazakh relationships after Russian air defense likely shot an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane on December 25, causing it to crash in Kazakhstan.
• Ukrainian forces recently struck a Russian Shahed drone storage, maintenance, and repair facility in Oryol City, Oryol Oblast.
• Russian authorities continue to establish a legal basis to remove the Taliban and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) from the Russian government’s official list of banned terrorist organizations.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on December 28 that the Russian military completed its Fall 2024 conscription cycle.

New railway linking China to Central Asia countries, bypassing Russia, begins construction kyivindependent.com/new-railway-linking-china-to-europe-bypassing-russia-begins-construction-in-kyrgyzstan/ in Kyrgyzstan.
The new route, part of China's economic expansion efforts, aims to expand Chinese commercial influence in Central Asia and Europe while bypassing Russian territory.

Russia detains suspect kyivindependent.com/russia-detains-suspect-allegedly-planning-to-assassinate-defense-officials-and-milblogger/ allegedly planning to assassinate defense official, pro-war blogger, Russian media report.
Russia claimed that the detained man was acting on instructions from Ukrainian intelligence.

Putin apologizes kyivindependent.com/putin-calls-azerbaijani-president-to-apologize/ to Azerbaijani president over plane crash, yet doesn't acknowledge Russia's responsibility.
The statement did not address the claims that a Russian air defense missile may have downed the Azerbaijani Airlines plane.

Putin 'appears to have ordered kyivindependent.com/putin-ordered-slovakias-fico-to-open-a-second-energy-front-against-ukraine-zelensky-says/ Slovakia's Fico to open second energy front against Ukraine,' Zelensky says.
Zelensky said this was "the only possible meaning" of Fico's threats to cut off Ukraine's emergency power supply in the winter, given Russian attacks on power plants and the distribution network.

Greece to deliver 24 Sea Sparrow missiles kyivindependent.com/greece-to-deliver-24-sea-sparrow-missiles-to-ukraine-media-reports/ to Ukraine, media reports.
Sea Sparrows are U.S.-made short-range missiles that can be launched from the sea or ground to intercept cruise missiles or aircraft.

Russia officially halts gas supplies kyivindependent.com/russia-officially-halts-gas-supplies-to-moldovas-transnistria/ to Moldova's Transnistria.
The Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom announced on Dec. 28 that it is ending gas supplies to the Russian-occupied region of Transnistria in Moldova, effective Jan. 1, 2025.
While a deal to allow Russian gas to flow to Moldova and other European countries via Ukraine expires at the end of the year, Gazprom claimed the decision was related to Moldova's outstanding debt, not problems with transit.

Zelensky teases multiple 'important personnel decisions' kyivindependent.com/zelensky-teases-multiple-important-personnel-decisions-coming-soon/ coming soon.
"We are preparing several important personnel decisions," President Volodymyr Zelensky said via his official Telegram channel the evening of Dec. 28. "The decrees will be announced soon."
Zelensky did not provide any further details on what departments or officials would be affected by the new decisions.

How climate change threatens Christmas traditions in Ukrainian Hutsul region kyivindependent.com/how-climate-change-influences-christmas/
Snow and frost on winter holidays now come as a surprise to Ukrainians. Due to climate change, winters in Ukraine can feel like a very extended November. Instead of snowing, it's raining, and instead of ice, it's mud.
In western Ukraine’s Carpathian Mountains, the land of Hutsuls, where unique Christmas customs require cold weather, mud and rain are testing traditions like never before.
Photo: Vitalii Poberezhnyi / The Kyiv Independent

Azerbaijan Airlines crash highlights Russia's failure to close airspace amid war kyivindependent.com/azerbaijani-airlines-crash-highlights-russias-failure-to-close-its-airspace-in-wartime/
The Dec. 25 Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash, likely caused by Russian air defense, shines light on a glaring issue the Kremlin has long swept under the rug.
By unleashing its war against Ukraine, Russia has made its airspace a dangerous place, writes Oleg Sukhov.
Photo: Issa Tazhenbayev/AFP

Russian-friendly politician reinvents himself in Ukraine as election speculation loom kyivindependent.com/russian-friendly-politician-reinvents-himself-in-ukraine-as-election-speculation-loom/
Three years into Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukrainian pro-Russian lawmaker Yuriy Boyko has resurfaced in Kyiv untouched by authorities.
A recent controversial video by Boyko has sparked speculation that he is doing groundwork for the post-war presidential and parliamentary run.
Photo: Yuriy Boyko/Telegram
Russian shelling in Kherson Oblast injures 8 kyivindependent.com/russian-shelling-in-kherson-oblast-injures-8-including-2-teens/ including 2 teens.
The wounded victims, including a 16-year-old boy and a 15-year-old girl, have been hospitalized, according to Governor Oleksandr Prokudin.

Ukraine receives 1st shipment of US LNG. kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-1st-shipment-of-us-lng/
"Despite Russia's attempts to destroy our energy system during the war, we have won another victory on the energy front," Andriy Yermak, head of the Presidential Office, said on Dec. 28.
Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK, received the shipment via a Greek LNG terminal on Dec. 27.

Putin names Ukraine main source of 'extremism' kyivindependent.com/putin-names-ukraine-main-source-of-extremism-in-new-decree/ in new decree.
Russia's updated anti-extremism strategy names Ukraine among the "main sources of extremism" and enshrines the concept of "Russophobia" for the first time.

Pro-Russian hackers launch cyberattack kyivindependent.com/pro-russian-hackers-launch-cyberattack-against-italys-foreign-ministry-milan-airports/ against Italy's Foreign Ministry, Milan airports.
The ministry and airport websites had to shut down temporarily, Italy's cybersecurity agency said, but no flights were disrupted. A pro-Russian hacker group claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Ukrainian drones kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-made-up-over-96-of-uavs-military-used-in-2024-defense-minister-says/ made up over 96% of UAVs military used in 2024, defense minister says.
Ukraine's drone industry "reached unprecedented production volumes" in 2024, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Dec. 28. Domestic drones accounted for 96.2% of all UAVs used by Ukrainian forces this year.

Oil spill in Black Sea sparks environmental emergency kyivindependent.com/oil-spill-in-black-sea-sparks-environmental-emergency-near-crimea/ near Crimea.
Authorities estimate the tankers were carrying 9,200 tonnes of fuel oil, of which approximately 40% potentially leaked into the sea. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described the situation as "truly critical."

German FM warns of Russian 'shadow fleet kyivindependent.com/german-fm-warns-of-russian-shadow-fleet-amid-undersea-cable-incidents-calls-for-sanctions/ amid undersea cable incidents, calls for sanctions.
"Almost every month, ships are currently damaging important undersea cables in the Baltic Sea," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told Funke media group on Dec. 28. "This is an urgent wake-up call for all of us."

Telegram blocks kyivindependent.com/telegram-blocks-russian-state-owned-media-channels-in-eu/ Russian state-owned media channels in several EU countries.
A number of major Russian news outlets had their Telegram channels blocked across several European Union countries on Dec. 28. Users attempting to access these channels now see a notice saying that the content has been restricted and is no longer available.

US teacher in Russian prison declared wrongfully detained kyivindependent.com/us-teacher-in-russian-prison-declared-wrongfully-detained-associated-press-reports/ Associated Press reports.
The U.S. government has officially classified Marc Fogel, an American schoolteacher jailed in Russia on drug charges, as wrongfully detained, the State Department announced on Dec. 27.

Azerbaijan to change rules kyivindependent.com/azerbaijan-to-change-rules-for-temporary-stay-of-russian-citizens/ for temporary stay of Russian citizens.
Azerbaijan will change the rules for the temporary stay of Russian citizens on its territory in the coming days after Russia announced stricter rules for the stay of foreigners, the Azerbaijan State News Agency reported on Dec. 28.
"As in all foreign policy issues... the Azerbaijani side will proceed in accordance with the principles of parity and reciprocity," Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ayhan Hajizade told the media when asked about Russia's new regulations.

German peacekeeping role in Ukraine hinges on Russia's consent, Merz says. kyivindependent.com/german-peacekeeping-role-in-ukraine-hinges-on-russias-consent-merz-says/
Germany may consider joining a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine only with Russia's consent, Friedrich Merz, the opposition CDU/CSU alliance's chancellor candidate, said on Dec. 28, according to Die Zeit.
"If a peace agreement is reached and Ukraine needs security guarantees, we can only discuss this if there is a clear mandate under international law. I don’t see it at the moment. I would like such a mandate to be given in consensus with Russia, not in conflict," Merz said.

Anti-Western Kavelashvili sworn in kyivindependent.com/anti-western-kavelashvili-inaugurated-as-georgias-president/ as Georgia's president, pro-EU Zourabichvili disputes legitimacy.
Georgian anti-Western politician Mikheil Kavelashvili, an ally of the ruling Georgian Dream party, was inaugurated as the country's sixth president on Dec. 29 in a move seen as illegitimate by the opposition.
Georgia's fifth president, Salome Zourabichvili, said she would vacate the presidential palace but remains the only legitimate head of state, pledging to continue the struggle against the ruling party.

Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 2, injure 14 kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-4/ over past day.
Russian forces launched multiple attacks across Ukraine, killing two civilians and injuring 14, regional authorities reported on Dec. 29.
Overnight, Russia launched 10 drones from Crimea and six S-300/S-400 missiles from Russia's Belgorod Oblast, targeting the Kursk and Sumy oblasts, Ukraine’s Air Force reported.
Photo: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Ivan Fedorov/Telegram

Russia could inflict 'substantial' casualties by unconventional attack against NATO, allied official says. kyivindependent.com/russia-hybrid-attacks-nato/
There is a real possibility that Russia could inflict "substantial" casualties by carrying out arson or sabotage operation against a NATO country, NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai told Sky News in an interview published on Dec. 29.

Ukraine prioritizing security guarantees over immediate NATO membership, senior diplomat says. kyivindependent.com/ukraine-prioritizes-security-guarantees-melnyk-says/
Ukraine’s accession to NATO remains on the agenda but diplomatic efforts currently focus on obtaining strong security guarantees, Andrii Melnyk, Ukraine’s newly-appointed envoy to the U.N., told Berliner Morgenpost on Dec. 27.

Russia may escalate hybrid warfare near NATO borders, Yermak warns. kyivindependent.com/russia-may-escalate-hybrid-threats-to-nato-borders-yermak-warns/
Russia may escalate its hybrid warfare tactics beyond sabotage of European infrastructure, potentially resorting to provocations on NATO’s borders, Andriy Yermak, the head of the Presidential Office, warned in a Telegram post on Dec. 29.

Zelensky extends condolences kyivindependent.com/zelensky-extends-condolences-over-deadly-south-korean-plane-crash/ over deadly South Korean plane crash.
President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed condolences on Dec. 29 to the families of victims and the people of South Korea following a tragic Jeju Air plane crash that killed at least 176 people, marking the worst air disaster involving a South Korean airline in decades.

Putin's apology over Azerbaijani plane crash 'apparent' admission of responsibility, Biden says. kyivindependent.com/putins-apology-over-azerbaijani-plane-crash-apparent-admission-of-responsbility-biden-says/
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Dec. 28 that Russian President Vladimir Putin's apology over a deadly Azerbaijan Airline crash appears to acknowledge Moscow's responsibility for the disaster.

Crashed Azerbaijani airliner hit by live fire, electronic warfare over Russia, Azerbaijan's president kyivindependent.com/aliyev-comments-on-airliner-crash/ says.
An Azerbaijan Airlines plane was rendered "uncontrollable" by electronic warfare and damaged by fire from the ground while flying over Russia before crashing, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev told the media, the Trend News Agency reported on Dec. 29.

Russia attacked Ukraine with over 280 bombs, 370 drones, 80 missiles this week, Zelensky says. kyivindependent.com/russia-attacked-ukraine-with-over-280-kab-bombs-370-drones-80-missiles-this-week-zelensky-says/
Russia has escalated its aerial assault on Ukraine, launching more than 280 KAB guided bombs, nearly 370 attack drones, and over 80 missiles in the past week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec. 29.

Child casualties in Ukraine within 9 months of 2024 surpass 2023 figures, UN reports. kyivindependent.com/child-casualties-in-ukraine-2024/
Child casualties in Ukraine during the first nine months of 2024 have exceeded the total for 2023, highlighting the devastating impact of the war on children, the U.N. Humanitarian Aid Organization for Children (UNICEF) said on Dec. 27.
UNICEF reported that 2024 had also been one of the worst years for children in conflict zones globally.

Russia must admit responsibility for Azerbaijani airliner crash, Azerbaijan’s president says. kyivindependent.com/aliyev-comments-on-airliner-crash/
Moscow must admit responsibility for the deadly crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane after it was hit by fire from the ground over Russia, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev told the media.
Baku’s demands also include holding perpetrators criminally responsible and paying compensation to the Azerbaijani state and the affected passengers and crew members, Aliyev noted.

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Dec. 29, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly rejected two suggestions reportedly considered by US President-elect Donald Trump's team in early November 2024 as conditions for ending the war in Ukraine – the delay of Ukraine's membership in NATO for 20 years and the deployment of European peacekeepers in Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin enshrined his alleged policy of Ukrainian "denazification" in a new state strategy document about countering extremism, demonstrating how Putin continues to make the same demands for the removal of the Ukrainian government that he made in 2022 when launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused Russia of shooting the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger flight over the Republic of Chechnya on December 25 and of attempting to cover up Russia's responsibility for the plane's crash in Kazakhstan — effectively rejecting Russian President Vladimir Putin's lackluster apology.
• Ukrainian forces are successfully innovating to combat Russian guided glide bomb strikes against Kharkiv Oblast.
• The US delivered its first liquified natural gas (LNG) shipment to Ukraine on December 27.
• Salome Zurabishvili announced her departure from the Georgian presidential palace on December 29 but stated that she considers herself to be Georgia's "legitimate" president.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russia reportedly continues to face labor shortages that Russian military recruitment and persistent demographic problems are likely exacerbating.

Commander kyivindependent.com/commander-of-ukrainian-brigade-charged-with-inaction-over-soldier-abuse/ of Ukrainian engineering brigade charged with inaction over soldier abuse.
Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigation detained Colonel Oleh Poberezhniuk, commander of the 211th Pontoon Bridge Brigade, on Dec. 29, accusing him of failing to address abuse and torture allegations involving his subordinates.
Photo: Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigation / Telegram

Ukraine secures over $156 million for defense industry from European allies, defense minister says. kyivindependent.com/ukraine-secures-over-150-million-for-defense-industry/
Ukraine has received over 150 million euros ($156 million) in funding from Denmark, France, and Lithuania to bolster its defense industry, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Dec. 29.
The funds will support the production of long-range drones, missiles, and artillery, which are critical to Ukraine’s defense strategy.

Russia claims Ukrainian pilot surrendered in Kursk Oblast, Ukraine denies. kyivindependent.com/ukraines-air-force-refutes-russian-claims-about-capturing-ukrainian-pilot/
Ukraine's Air Force on Dec. 29 denied claims spread by the Russian state media about a Ukrainian pilot surrendering to Russian forces in Kursk Oblast.
The statement came after the Russian state news agency TASS claimed, citing Russian security services, that Ukrainian pilot Volodymyr Popovich had surrendered in the embattled Russian

Poland aims to fully fortify border with Belarus by mid-2025, senior official says. kyivindependent.com/poland-to-fortify-border-with-belarus-by-mid-2025/
Poland plans to complete its fortified border wall and close the border with Belarus by next summer, aiming to curb what it sees as Russia's and Belarus's "hybrid war" through illegal migration, Polish Deputy Interior Minister Maciej Duszczyk told the Financial Times on Dec. 29

Russian telecom equipment destroyed in occupied Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine's intel says. kyivindependent.com/ukraine-disrupts-illegal-telecom-operations-in-occupied-donetsk-hur-claims/
Four facilities housing telecommunication equipment for the illegal operator Phoenix, used by Russian forces, were destroyed in the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said on Dec. 29.
HUR further reported fires that melted cellular equipment in Russia's Leningrad Oblast and destroyed three railway relay cabinets in Yaroslavl Oblast.
Video: HUR/Telegram

Russia rejects Trump team's reported peace deal proposals on Ukraine, FM Lavrov says. kyivindependent.com/russia-rejects-reported-peace-proposals-from-trumps-team/
Russia is dissatisfied with the reported peace deal proposals on Ukraine from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s team, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Dec. 29, according to state-owned TASS.
Earlier reports from the Wall Street Journal indicated that Trump’s team is considering a plan to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership by at least 20 years in exchange for continued Western arms supplies and the deployment of European peacekeepers to monitor a ceasefire.

Poland prepared to increase kyivindependent.com/poland-ready-to-help-ukraine-if-slovakias-fico-cuts-electric-grid/ energy exports to Ukraine in place of Slovakia, Bloomberg reports.
Poland has expressed willingness to increase electricity exports to Ukraine if Slovakia halts its supply, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 29, citing an unnamed Polish official.

Latvia to provide kyivindependent.com/latvia-to-transfer-over-1-000-drones-to-ukraine/ over 1,000 drones to Ukraine.
Latvia will transfer over 1,000 "combat drones of various types" to Ukraine through the international drone coalition, the country's Defense Minister Andris Spruds announced on social media.

Why is my life considered more important than a Ukrainian life? kyivindependent.com/opinion-why-is-my-life-considered-more-important-than-a-ukrainian-life/
It's time for the West to reckon with the fact that Ukrainian lives matter just as much as ours, writes British writer Ben Fletcher in his recent op-ed.
Read the full op-ed here.
kyivindependent.com/opinion-why-is-my-life-considered-more-important-than-a-ukrainian-life/
Photo: Roman Pilipey / AFP via Getty Images

Fragmented financial oversight undermines Ukraine’s economic future kyivindependent.com/fragmented-financial-oversight-undermines-ukraines-economic-future/
Ukraine’s fragmented financial regulatory system is undermining investor protection, hindering reconstruction efforts, and risking national security amid ongoing war, writes Olha Vasylevska-Smahliuk, deputy chair of Parliament's Committee on Finance, Taxation, and Customs Policy, in her recent op-ed.
Read the full op-ed here. kyivindependent.com/fragmented-financial-oversight-undermines-ukraines-economic-future/
Photo: Roman Pilipey/AFP via Getty Images

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine prioritizing security guarantees over immediate NATO membership https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-51/
Ukraine’s accession to NATO remains on the agenda but diplomatic efforts currently focus on obtaining strong security guarantees, Andrii Melnyk, Ukraine’s newly-appointed envoy to the U.N., told Berliner Morgenpost on Dec. 27.

16-year-old arrested kyivindependent.com/16-year-old-arrested-in-russia-over-school-poster/ in Russia over anti-government school poster.
A 16-year-old girl is in pre-trial detention in St. Petersburg for putting up posters of anti-establishment fighters on a bulletin board at her school, a local court announced on Dec. 29.

Ukraine to appoint kyivindependent.com/military-ombudsman-to-be-appointed-soon-zelensky-says/ first military ombudsman, Zelensky says.
A candidate for the new role of Military Ombudsman has been chosen and will be revealed in a presidential decree on Dec. 30, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address on Dec. 29.

Nordic, Baltic countries voice concerns kyivindependent.com/nordic-baltic-countries-voice-concerns-about-elections-in-georgia-call-for-investigations/ about elections in Georgia, call for investigations.
The Nordic-Baltic Eight countries have urged Georgia to investigate and consider holding new elections following disputed parliamentary elections in October and the inauguration of the new president, according to their statement published on Dec. 29.

Slovak Defense Minister urges kyivindependent.com/slovak-defense-minister-urges-ukraine-to-consider-territorial-concessions-for-war-to-stop-immediately/ Ukraine to consider territorial concessions for "war to stop immediately.”
Slovak Defense Minister Robert Kalinak said that Ukraine may need to cede some territory due to the realities on the ground, Slovak news agency TASR reported on Dec. 29.
During a television interview, Kalinak claimed that Slovakia’s priority is for an immediate ceasefire and peace negotiations.

Black box from Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash sent kyivindependent.com/black-box-from-azerbaijan-airlines-plane-crash-sent-to-brazil-for-investigation/ to Brazil for investigation.
The black box from the Azerbaijan Airlines crash in Kazakhstan, believed to have been caused by Russian air defense, is being sent to Brazil for investigation, Kazakh authorities reported on Dec. 29.

Ukrainian FM urges EU to ban, kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-fm-urges-eu-to-ban-replace-russian-lng-imports/ replace Russian LNG imports.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the European Union must be banned and replaced with supplies from the United States and other partners.

Ukraine shot down 21 Russian drones overnight, kyivindependent.com/air-force-reports-downing-21-russian-drones-overnight/ Air Force reports.
Ukraine shot down 21 of the 43 Russian drones launched overnight, the Ukrainian Air Force reported on Dec. 30.
Russian drones were reportedly shot down over Ukraine’s Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv, Odesa, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Dec. 30, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Live:Ukraine:

🇷🇴 Romania sets preliminary dates for Presidential Elections

According to Digi24, Romania’s ruling coalition has tentatively scheduled the first round of presidential elections for March 23, 2025, with a potential second round on April 6.

The pro-European coalition has publicly backed Crin Antonescu from the National Liberal Party as their sole candidate. Other notable candidates include Oana Lasconi from the “Save Romania Union,” and independents Nicușor Dan and Daniel Funeriu.

Pro-Russian incumbent Călin Georgescu has also announced his candidacy.

🔹 NATO considers the risk of a non-conventional attack by Russia against the Alliance, with significant casualties, to be real

James Appathurai, a senior NATO official involved in updating the Alliance’s strategy for monitoring and deterring so-called hybrid warfare, stated that member nations must have a clear understanding among themselves and with Moscow about what level of “gray zone” activity might trigger an allied response, including the use of military force.

The number of “kinetic” actions—such as cutting vital undersea cables, sabotage of infrastructure, and planting incendiary devices in aircraft cargo—has notably increased.

When asked if he is concerned that a potential Russian hybrid attack could exceed the threshold prompting NATO to invoke Article 5—considering an attack on one member as an attack on all—and lead to war with Russia, Appathurai said:

“What really concerns me is that one of these attacks could escalate on a large scale, as I’ve mentioned.”

🔸 Aliyev Demands Compensation and Admission of Guilt from Russia for Downed Plane

“First, the Russian side must apologize to Azerbaijan. Second, it must admit its guilt.

Third, those responsible must be punished and held criminally accountable, and compensation must be paid to the Azerbaijani state, as well as to the affected passengers and crew members. These are our conditions.

The first condition was fulfilled yesterday. I hope the remaining conditions will also be met. All these demands are fair. There are no extraordinary requests or issues here; they are based on international experience and principles of normal human behavior,” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated.

🇬🇧 The UK government will allocate $5.6 million to Ukraine for investigating war crimes.

“The atrocities we have witnessed in Ukraine are unspeakable — without accountability, there can be no lasting peace. The UK’s support will help Ukraine restore justice for the victims and survivors of these crimes,” stated the British Foreign Secretary.

🇵🇱 Poland plans to reinforce its border wall with Belarus by summer 2025.

Currently, night-vision cameras, thermal imaging systems, and a new patrol road are being installed. The project costs over €587 million, with half of the funding provided by Prime Minister Tusk’s government.

It is expected that the border will be nearly 100% secure after completion. However, Warsaw does not rule out potential provocations from Lukashenko’s regime.

🇸🇰Slovak Defense Minister Robert Kaliňák has stated that Ukraine should consider relinquishing part of its territory.

In his view, it is in Slovakia’s interest for the war to end immediately with a ceasefire, followed by peace negotiations. The minister emphasized that the post-war shape of Ukraine is more important than its future borders.

“It’s likely that Ukraine doesn’t fully realize it will never position itself between Germany and Switzerland, but will always share its largest border with the Russian Federation.

There’s no debate about who the aggressor is—Russia has crossed all boundaries, violated rules, and broken international law. However, equal attention must be paid to disputes in other parts of the world, applying the same standards universally,” said Kaliňák.

🔹 In 2024, Russia seized an area equal to three squares of Kyiv

The year 2024 was diverse: Ukraine was successful in the Kursk offensive, but Russia managed to occupy 2,800 square kilometers.
Photo 1

🔸 North Korean soldiers could one day appear at NATO borders if Russia isn't stopped now, said Andriy Yermak, head of Ukrainian President's Office
Impunity fosters further aggression, he warned.

*🇱🇻By the end of this year, Latvia will deliver another 1,000 drones to Ukraine — according to Andris Sprūds, the country's Minister of Defense
*
🔹 Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha and his delegation are currently in Damascus, where they met with Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa

During a joint press conference, Sybiha stated that Ukraine is ready to share its expertise in evidence collection, legal documentation, investigation, and prosecuting war criminals for their actions.

The minister also emphasized Ukraine’s willingness to “open a new chapter in bilateral relations with Syria.” This includes establishing joint ventures, fostering industrial and food production, and facilitating technology exchange.*

🇸🇰 Slovakia has expressed outrage over President Zelensky’s remark that Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, by threatening to halt electricity supplies to Ukraine, has opened a “second energy front.”*

The Slovak Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that, as Ukraine is “engaged in a protracted military conflict,” it should “refrain from creating new adversaries or imagining the idea of a ‘second front.’”

⚡️🇺🇸 The United States will provide Ukraine with nearly $2.5 billion in security assistance.

This includes $1.22 billion under the USAI program, which covers weapons and equipment that are yet to be produced, and $1.24 billion from Pentagon stockpiles.

The Biden administration has fully utilized the $61 billion allocated for Ukraine by the U.S. Congress in April.

🔸 Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the visit of the Ukrainian delegation to Syria.

“We support the Syrian people in their aspiration to overcome decades of dictatorial rule and restore stability, security, and normal life in Syria,” the president stated.

In 2024, Russia seized an area equal to three squares of Kyiv

The year 2024 was diverse: Ukraine was successful in the Kursk offensive, but Russia managed to occupy 2,800 square kilometers.

United 24 Media:

🔹 Moldova Condemns Gazprom’s Decision to Halt Gas Supplies

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean criticized Gazprom’s decision to stop gas supplies, calling it another example of Russia using energy as a political weapon. Recean reaffirmed Moldova’s readiness to manage the situation, highlighting the country’s diversified gas supply sources.

“This decision once again reveals the Kremlin’s intent to leave residents of the Transnistrian region without heat and light during winter,” Recean said.

Gazprom claims Moldova owes $709 million for past natural gas deliveries. However, an international audit commissioned by the Moldovan government estimates the debt at just $8.6 million.

Moldova is now exploring legal avenues, including the possibility of international arbitration, to address the dispute. Recean emphasized Moldova’s commitment to protecting its energy security and sovereignty amidst Russia’s attempts to exert pressure.

🔸 Russia may be preparing for an attack on Finland and other NATO countries along its eastern flank, according to NATO sources cited by the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti.

The report claims that Russian forces could aim to reclaim territory outlined in the 1743 Peace of Turku, targeting areas up to the Kymijoki River in southern Finland and the Puumalan Strait in the north.

These concerns come amid heightened tensions following the discovery of spy equipment on the Russian tanker Eagle S, detained in Finland. The vessel is also suspected of sabotaging the Estlink 2 cable in the Baltic Sea and damaging other underwater communication lines.

🔹 Zelenskyy: Russia Launched the Fewest Drones in Months

This week, Russia launched 370 drones, marking the lowest number in recent months. Typically, the weekly average ranges between 500 and 600 drones, according to reports from President Zelenskyy.

🔸 Putin Calls Aliyev Again to Discuss Plane Crash

For the second time in two days, Russian President Vladimir Putin called Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Their conversation focused on the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash. According to the Azerbaijani president’s press service, the call was initiated by Putin.

🔹 Azerbaijan to Restrict Russian Citizens’ Stay to 90 Days

Starting January 1, Azerbaijan will limit Russian citizens to a 90-day visa-free stay within a calendar year. This change mirrors Russia’s decision to impose similar restrictions on foreigners.

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry emphasized the principle of reciprocity in its decision and announced adjustments to the temporary stay rules for Russian nationals.

🔸 Poland Ready to Boost Electricity Exports to Ukraine Amid Slovakia’s Moves

Poland is prepared to increase electricity production to support Ukraine’s energy system if Slovakia disrupts its supply, according to a senior Polish official cited by Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, the European Commission is drafting a roadmap to end energy imports from Russia, with the strategy set for release in February. This may render Slovakia’s efforts to maintain Russian gas transit through Ukraine futile.

🔹 Azovstal Defender Artur Niverchuk Returns Home After 884 Days in Russian Captivity

Ukraine welcomed home Azovstal defender Artur Niverchuk in Zdolbuniv after 884 days of captivity. Over two years, he endured imprisonment in eight Russian colonies. On his birthday, he was sentenced to life imprisonment by the occupiers.

Before his release in October, Niverchuk was held in the notorious Black Dolphin colony, a high-security facility for life prisoners in Russia’s Orenburg region.

t.me/United24media/27895

🔸 Lavrov: Russia May Abandon Missile Deployment Moratorium

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that Russia’s moratorium on deploying short- and medium-range missiles is likely to be abandoned.

In a conversation with RIA Novosti, Lavrov accused the United States of forcing Russia into this decision, claiming:
“The United States has brazenly ignored warnings from Russia and China and is actively deploying weapons of this class in various regions worldwide.”

🔹 Latvia Prepares Final 2024 Batch of 1,000 Drones for Ukraine

Latvia has readied 1,000 UAVs of various types for transfer to Ukraine, according to the country’s defense minister. This marks the last shipment of drones for 2024.

Looking ahead to 2025, Latvia plans to allocate €20 million for UAV purchases as part of the drone coalition initiative.

🔸 Expert: Airlines May Avoid Russian Airspace Over Security Concerns

Gunduz Mammadov, an expert in national and international criminal law, stated that if Russia does not close its airspace under international pressure, airlines might independently avoid it based on security risks.

He added that if Azerbaijan Airlines ceases flights to Russia, it could set a precedent for other airlines to follow.

🔹 Croatia's incumbent president, Zoran Milanović, known for his anti-Ukrainian views, has secured victory in the first round of the presidential election with 49.09% of the vote.

His main competitor, Dragan Primorac, a former science minister backed by the ruling Croatian Democratic Union, garnered 19.35% of the vote.

🔸 Jeju Air Faces Second Landing Gear Issue in 24 Hours

A Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 experienced landing gear problems shortly after taking off from Jeju. The pilots returned to the airport safely, with no injuries reported. This marks the second incident involving Jeju Air within a day.

This event is part of a troubling week for aviation, with five air accidents reported:

• Wednesday: An Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed in Kazakhstan.
• Thursday: A Boeing 737-800 in Norway made an emergency landing due to hydraulic failure.
• The same evening: A plane in Canada hit the runway with its wing during an emergency landing, causing minor injuries.
• Yesterday morning: A Jeju Air plane crashed in South Korea.

🔹 Lavrov: Russia Will Not Join Summit on Peace

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that Russia will not participate in the upcoming summit on peace, even if formally invited.

“In October, preparatory meetings for the second peace summit were held. We understand that the organizers aim to present Russia with some form of ultimatum. I have stated repeatedly that Russia will not attend this event,” Lavrov explained.

🔸 Brave1 Tests German Interceptor Drone Capable of Neutralizing Shahed UAVs

The Brave1 technology cluster announced successful tests of a German interceptor drone designed to counter Shahed UAVs and enemy reconnaissance drones.

Ukrainian operators conducted the tests, evaluating the drone’s relevance to modern warfare. Capable of speeds up to 300 km/h and a range of 20 kilometers, the UAV is set to be equipped with an automatic guidance system using machine vision.

Representatives from Ukraine’s Security and Defense Forces praised the drone’s capabilities. Brave1 also highlighted efforts to connect the German manufacturer with Ukrainian developers for potential collaboration, seeing it as a mutually beneficial partnership.

🔹 Ukrainian Foreign Minister Meets Syrian Leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha held talks with Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Damascus, according to Reuters.

Details of the meeting have not yet been disclosed.

🔸 Taliban Tighten Restrictions on Afghan Women’s Rights and Privacy

The Taliban issued a decree mandating that windows in Afghan homes be designed to ensure women cannot be seen from neighboring houses while performing daily activities like cooking, using the restroom, or fetching water.

This is part of a broader crackdown on women’s freedoms. Afghan women are now forbidden from:

• Studying in high schools and universities.
• Working in civil service roles.
• Protesting or traveling abroad.
• Driving, traveling alone, or using taxis.
• Speaking in public, loudly at home, or singing.
• Reading the Quran aloud in public.
• Consulting male doctors.
• Visiting gyms, parks, or wearing bright clothes.
• Walking in heels, looking at unfamiliar men, or showing their face in public.
• Owning smartphones.

These restrictions mark a severe erosion of women’s rights under the Taliban regime.

🔹 NATO Official Warns of Rising Threats from Russian Hybrid Attacks

James Appathurai, NATO’s Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Policy Affairs on Innovation and Cyber Technologies, warned of the growing risks posed by Russian hybrid warfare, including sabotage and arson, in an interview with Sky News.

Appathurai emphasized the need for NATO members to agree on what level of “grey zone” activity — unconventional attacks below the threshold of traditional warfare — could trigger a collective Allied response, including military force.

He highlighted the alarming rise in Russian hybrid actions, such as cutting undersea cables, sabotaging buildings, and planting incendiary devices in aircraft cargo, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to Appathurai, NATO members have thwarted numerous plots, though dozens have succeeded, with more than 100 known incidents.

He expressed concern that a major hybrid attack could result in significant casualties or economic damage, potentially crossing the threshold for invoking NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause:
“What really worries me is that one of these attacks... will break out on a large scale. We don’t want to be unprepared for what comes next.”

🔸 Slovak PM Fico Criticizes Zelenskyy for Halting Gas Transit

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico sent an open letter to EU leaders condemning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to stop gas transit through Ukraine.

Fico argued that the unilateral move undermines European efforts, citing data from the Slovak energy company SPP. According to Fico, while Russia would lose only €2 billion in revenue, the damage to Europe could reach tens of billions of euros.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c938x3v148yo What a wonderful gift for them and their families for the new year ❤️

1873759894559391932 just found this on Twitter about the Russian economy

https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1873759894559391932 sorry this

So lovely to be reunited. They and their families can begin the road to recovery.

Let's hope that all comes to pass in early 2025 @minsmum 🤞

Biden announced another aid package this morning. I had to wait for the DoD press release for the publicly available details on the military kit. There were lots of anti-armor weapons, so those are obviously still in heavy use.

www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/article/3982157/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/