Opinion piece in todays Times;
How do we ‘reset’ with a Europe in crisis?
As pro-Russian parties gain ground and economies falter, the survival of the EU is more than just a talking point
Debates in the European Parliament are not famed for their riveting speeches and soaring rhetoric, which makes the 12-minute address by Ursula von der Leyen yesterday remarkable. She attacked the leader of Hungary for running a pro-Putin, anti-Ukraine government that helps the West’s enemies and undermines European security. This was a demolition job of Viktor Orban, made all the more delicious by the fact that the populist was sitting a few metres away, scribbling notes and looking awkward.
“There are still some who blame this war not on the invader but on the invaded,” said von der Leyen. “Not on Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom.” Looking at Orban, the president of the European Commission said: “I want to ask them, would they ever blame the Hungarians for the Soviet invasion of 1956? Or the Czechs and Slovaks for the Soviet repression of 1968?”
She also criticised Orban’s decision to allow police from China to patrol in Hungary and to wave through visa applications allowing Russians into the EU during a European war started by the Kremlin.
This was an unusually direct and overdue critique of one particular leader, but it also speaks to the emerging crisis that should deeply concern any of us anxious about European security and keen to protect our free societies.
Just a couple of years ago it was possible to view Orban as an eccentric rogue regarding Russia. Now, Europe is splitting and pro-Russian parties are on the rise. The recent Austrian election was won by a pro-Russian party, the far right Freedom party. In the Netherlands, the anti-Ukraine populists of Geert Wilders won elections late last year, and while the new coalition government has committed to supporting Kyiv, for now, Wilders is unreliable on the question of aid.
If Donald Trump wins the US presidency next month, and American aid to Ukraine runs out, it is easy to see how the European populists who favour a deal on Putin’s terms will present surrender as mere realpolitik. In Germany, pro-Russian parties of the right (the AfD) and the far left (BSW) are polling well, hoovering up support from younger voters as the centre is hollowed out. A German analyst described to me last week what this means: all the pressure will be on normalising relations with Russia — just make the war, and Ukraine, go away.
Germany’s rapid deindustrialisation is also getting worse with recession looming next year. The country’s economy ministry has forecast a 0.2 per cent contraction for 2025. The worse the economic position, the more it will benefit pro-Russian populists on the left and right advocating cynical appeasement. All this is before we get to France and its presidential elections in 2027 featuring the far right and far left.
In recent conversations with European policymakers and think tankers, this darkening picture has been the persistent theme. I have heard minor variations but broadly the same message, best encapsulated as “I’m not sure Europe can survive what is coming”. Even a prominent British Remainer, a member of David Cameron’s cabinet, astonished me recently by expressing a similar view, saying that what it is increasingly common to call a “war era” could leave Europe crippled.
The report by Mario Draghi last month, laying out why a forest of regulation has caused the EU to fall so far behind the US in productivity and wealth, was bad enough. But even since then, the pace of deterioration in European affairs has accelerated. President Macron warned last week the EU could die in three years without radical reforms to make it more competitive. On Friday, Germany and France were on opposite sides of a battle over EU tariffs on Chinese cars. France voted for the new tariffs, to stem the flood of cheap Chinese electric vehicles, while Germany voted against, because business there wants to get trade flowing with Beijing.
Again, anyone British, Brexiteer or Remainer, tempted to feel smug about any aspect of this unfolding disaster, either because it vindicates departure or is nonsensically deemed somehow our fault for leaving, needs to consider the bigger historical picture. With confidence draining away, in security terms, Europe’s crisis is our crisis.
How will a divided continent defend itself? The split raises problems for Nato if more member states become unreliable on Russia and Putin is emboldened to try further attacks on the democracies. Those countries who see this in robust terms, such as Poland, the UK, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Norway and the Baltic states, are going to have to increase co-operation even further to deter Russia.
This week the head of MI5, Ken McCallum, warned that Russia and its allies are running an increasing number of sabotage operations in Britain. They will not be any less active on the continental mainland.
What happens to the EU? It doesn’t need to end to diminish under this pressure. Sometimes major institutions think the UN endure but fade away. The bureaucrats keep meeting as the world changes around them. This is the risk and if we want Russia and its allies deterred we should hope for von der Leyen and all leaders who see the threat to prevail.
Meanwhile, in Britain it is as though our politics are taking place in another universe, dominated by Sue Gray’s demotion and the inability of James Cleverly’s campaign manager to count. On the EU, our beleaguered new government is banging on about a reset, which is all very noble but which is now being rapidly overtaken by events. If we are to reset, what, exactly, are we resetting with?