Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Zelenskyy presented a Victory Plan to the Verkhovna Rada, outlining five main points along with three confidential annexes:

1. NATO Integration: The first point calls for Ukraine’s immediate invitation to join NATO, positioning it within the broader security framework envisioned by its partners.
2. Strengthening Defense: This entails carrying out operations within Russia, collaborating with allies to shoot down Russian aircraft, increasing the deployment of Ukrainian drones and missiles, and lifting existing restrictions on weapon use. Additionally, it includes gaining access to partner intelligence. The defense portion has a classified annex accessible only to nations with the requisite military capabilities to provide support.
3. Deterring Russian Aggression: This includes a secret annex shared with leaders from the U.S., U.K., and Italy. It proposes a comprehensive non-nuclear deterrence package to be established in Ukraine to prevent further Russian military action.
4. Strategic and Economic Development: This point emphasizes Ukraine’s future economic and strategic potential. It also has a confidential annex accessible to the U.S. and EU, which outlines a partnership agreement to bolster Ukraine’s capabilities.
5. Post-War Strategy: For the period following the conflict, Ukraine aims to contribute its military experience to the entire NATO Alliance and European defense. It suggests replacing American military forces in Europe with Ukrainian ones after the war’s conclusion.

Meeting on Energy: Comprehensive Winter Preparation
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting focused on complex preparations for winter, with reports from all parties involved in the process, including Naftogaz, Ukrenergo, the Ministries of Energy, Internal Affairs, Community and Territorial Development, the Air Force, and regional military administrations.
“All levels of energy infrastructure protection were addressed: engineering measures, electronic warfare systems, and air defense forces. Our aviation will actively participate. Decisions were also made to strengthen air defense in border and front-line regions.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs presented a response plan for dealing with shelling and swiftly repairing any damage. Work on establishing a decentralized network of cogeneration plants is ongoing,” Zelenskyy stated.

France will not fulfill its promise to provide Ukraine with three billion euros in aid in 2024 due to a budget deficit, Politico reports.
“At the beginning of 2024, there was a political decision that this aid could reach three billion euros. In reality, it will exceed two billion euros, but it will not reach three billion,” said French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu.
France was compelled to reduce its aid to Ukraine because the budget deficit for 2024 is expected to be around 6% of the country’s GDP.

France's Defense Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, announced that the country will soon start supplying Ukraine with newly designed kamikaze drones. Following successful initial tests, the drones will be delivered to both the French armed forces and Ukraine in the coming weeks.

In Lausanne, on October 17-18, 2024, Switzerland and Ukraine will jointly host the Ukrainian Conference on Mine Action (UMAC2024), announced the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

North Korea has announced the mobilization of 1.4 million citizens who have reportedly volunteered to join a “holy war” to defend the country’s sovereignty under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. The move is portrayed as a response to perceived threats, with the government framing the mobilization as a patriotic duty to protect the nation against any encroaching enemies. [how the hell they going to afford that?!]

The conversation between Vladimir Putin and CIA Director William Burns took place in Moscow in the fall of 2021, as detailed by American journalist Bob Woodward in his new book War.

Aerial reconnaissance of the “Khyzhak” (“Predator”) brigade shows what the Russians have turned Toretsk into. https://t.me/United24media/25970

Paris has urged companies supplying Russian gas to better identify themselves at EU ports to curb the increase in Russian fossil fuels entering the bloc, according to the Financial Times.

Russians are spending more per week on the war in Ukraine than the annual budgets of 80% of Russian regions, according to The Moscow Times.
The publication reported that this year’s Russian budget allocates 11.1 trillion rubles to military and security expenditures, equivalent to around 210 billion rubles per week. This weekly cost surpasses the annual budgets of 80% of Russian regions.
Only 18 out of 83 Russian regions have budgets that exceed the weekly expenses of the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Center of Countering Disinformation has indeed flagged a fake story about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy allegedly buying Adolf Hitler’s parade car. There is no credible evidence to support this claim, and it is widely recognized as a fabricated piece of disinformation.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇦🇺Australia will transfer 49 decommissioned Abrams tanks to Ukraine as part of a $164 million aid package, ABC reports, citing Australia’s Minister for Defence Industry

In 9 months of 2024, Ukraine successfully eliminated 10,373 Russian artillery systems, equivalent to the destruction of 144 artillery brigades
One of the most significant days of losses for Russian forces occurred on September 22, when Ukrainian forces neutralized 81 artillery systems in a single day.
The cost of Russian artillery destroyed this year is at least 8 billion dollars.

Since September 22, Russians have been targeting Zaporizhzhia with KAB bombs, causing damage to hundreds of homes and social infrastructure facilities
A total of 162 apartment buildings, 906 private homes, and 61 non-residential structures have been damaged.
The head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Ivan Fedorov, stated that the only effective response to such attacks is strengthening air defense and the use of F-16s.

A man was shot dead in his car near Moscow, and Russian media reports indicate that he was the deputy commander of the Russian Special Operations Forces (SSO) training center who participated in the war against Ukraine.
It is believed that the victim was 44-year-old Nikita Klenkov, who served in a special forces unit of Russian military intelligence. He had returned from the front just a week ago. Klenkov was killed near the Special Operations Forces training center.

🇨🇿The Czech Republic is reinstating its ambassador to Moscow after nearly a three-year hiatus, appointing former Deputy Defense Minister Daniel Koštoval to the position.

Overnight, Russian forces struck an industrial facility in the Ternopil oblast, causing a large-scale fire. Firefighters have already extinguished the blaze, and there are no reported casualties or injuries.

🇵🇱Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated (https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-rzad-stawia-warunki-ukrainie-kosiniak-kamysz-to-moze-byc-zas,nId,7835969) that Ukraine’s accession to the European Union is not a critical issue, which means that Warsaw can afford to set certain conditions in this regard.

Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 51 out of 136 drones that Russia launched overnight against Ukraine. An additional 60 Russian drones were lost due to electronic warfare (EW) systems.
The Russians also struck Donetsk oblast with an S-300/400 surface-to-air guided missile and hit Chernihiv oblast with an Kh-59 guided aviation missile.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

China and Russia aim to elevate their relationship to the highest level in history, — Zhang Yuxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of China.
He said that there is a need to deepen cooperation between the armed forces of China and Russia.
The Russian minister also emphasized that Moscow and Beijing “share common views on the global situation” and are “united in their assessments of global processes.”

With the US now only delivering a small fraction of the billions in congressionally authorized aid to Ukraine for several months, Russians are now making rapid advances in most directions of the front.
According to BILD, the Russian army is now 2 km away from the city of Kurakhove in the Donetsk region.
Early this monrh, Russian forces made a breakthrough, and reaching the shores of the Kurakhiv Reservoir. They are now only 2 km away from the city. Despite significant losses, the Russian armed forces continue their advance.
In April 2024, US Congress authorized billions in weapons assistance but the Biden Administration has inexplicably allowed the dispersal of only a small fraction of this.
We now see the results.

The UK is preparing proposals for long-range strikes by Ukraine on Russian territory, — Syrsky

Despite the disinformation deluge to the contrary, the Russian economy is imploding.
From inflation to the housing bubble and 20% interest rates, a perfect storm.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40513

More innovation from Ukrainian Armed Forces, implementing AI into drone tech increases kill rates from 50% to 80%.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40500

Russians bring back their pre-war tactics of destabilization by calling in bomb threats to public places across Ukraine.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40558

Appealing to the large segment of the German electorate impatient with the Scholz government's appeasing nature toward Russia, the future candidate for Chancellor of Germany from the largest opposition force, the CDU, Friedrich Merz, said that he would support the lifting of restrictions on Ukraine’s long-range strikes against Russia.

Overshadowed by the upcoming US presidential election, closer to home political races in several Eastern European countries may be no less important regionally.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40470

Korean scholar blames US weakness as the reason for North Korea joining Russia's terror coalition.
"The current American administration's refusal to take on the role of a global policeman, which has provoked conflicts on a global scale."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40597

I am afraid that I have to go into hospital for just over two weeks from Friday - all will be well, but this has to be done. As I can't really work on a laptop I'm afraid that after tomorrow I can't do the roundups.

I will of course start again as soon as I'm back!

I shall drink to all going well and a speedy recovery for you.

Get well soon..

Fingers crossed for all going smoothly and a speedy recovery.

In April 2024, US Congress authorized billions in weapons assistance but the Biden Administration has inexplicably allowed the dispersal of only a small fraction of this.

This is more about the availability of the specific weapons and supplies Ukraine wants than anything else.

US military aid packages to Ukraine shrink amid concerns over Pentagon stockpiles

Get well soon @DucklingSwimmingInstructress. I'll try and fill your shoes starting Monday for two weeks but may do it less comprehensively than your excellent round ups!

Oh @DucklingSwimmingInstructress, good luck, I hope it goes well.

I can have a go at doing the round ups Friday and over the weekend if needed. I have the links you sent to me. I can't promise that they will be up to your standards though.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress hope it all goes well and wishing you a speedy recovery.

I can do ISW all days as normal and Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday (Twat 😁) for Kyiv Independent. I think that should be the next 2 weeks covered.

Hope people don't mind my cut-and-paste job at random times of the day. Next 2 weeks is half term school holidays so hopefully work slows down for me famous last words. @DesdamonasHandkerchief and @Llttledrummergirl, if you need me to cover any of your days, just let me know.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-15-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin is likely leveraging the recent June 2024 Russia-North Korea comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in part to offset Russian force generation and border security requirements—further cementing Russian President Vladimir Putin's commitment to avoiding mobilization for as long as possible.
• The Kremlin has elected to address the recent controversy regarding its reliance on conscripts to repel Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast by offering financial incentives to any personnel involved in defending the state border.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin to stay in his position despite reaching retirement age (again) demonstrating Putin's continued preference for keeping curated loyalists from his inner circle in positions of power.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• A former Russian Storm-Z instructor and milblogger heavily criticized Russian forces' reliance on the partially-encrypted communications platform Discord following Russia's recent ban of the platform.

Thank you very much for the well wishes and it's lovely that people can keep the info provision going!

Get well soon @DucklingSwimmingInstructress 💐

The US announced a $425m military aid package for Ukraine yesterday. It's the usual bits and bobs, but all high priority items for the UAF.

https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-announces-significant-new-military-assistance-for-ukraine/

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Zelensky arrives in Brussels (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-brussels-to-pitch-victory-plan-to-european-council/) to pitch Ukraine's victory plan to European Council.

⚡️'First step to World War' — North Korea preparing (https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-preparing-10-000-soldiers/ ) 10,000 soldiers to join Russia's war, Zelensky confirms.

⚡️Australia to give (kyivindependent.com/australia-to-give-ukraine-almost-50-us-made-abrams-tanks/) Ukraine almost 50 US-made Abrams tanks.

Zelensky said on Oct. 17 that he told Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in their meeting in September that Ukraine needs to be part of NATO, or it would pursue nuclear capabilities to protect itself. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-he-told-trump-that-either-ukraine-will-join-nato-or-pursue-nuclear-weapons/

⚡️US announces (kyivindependent.com/us-announces-425-million-in-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/) $425 million in security aid for Ukraine, Zelensky says package includes long-range weapons.

⚡️NATO does not have plans (kyivindependent.com/nato-does-not-plan-to-invite-ukraine-into-the-alliance-in-the-short-term-us-ambassador-says/) to invite Ukraine into the alliance 'in the short term,' US Ambassador says.

⚡️Ramstein meeting rescheduled (kyivindependent.com/ramstein-meeting-rescheduled-to-november-in-virtual-format-white-house-says/) for November in virtual format, White House says.

⚡️Getting out of 'protracted' war (kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-protracted-war/) with Russia 'almost impossible,' Zaluzhnyi says.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former commander-in-chief and current ambassador to the U.K., said it is almost impossible to escape the state of "protracted" war with Russia in a speech at the Chatham House on Oct. 17, according to a Kyiv Independent reporter.

⚡️ Ukraine's draft system burdened with Soviet heritage (kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-on-mobilization/), fixing it will take time, Zaluzhnyi says.

⚡️ Kazakhstan won't seek BRICS membership (kyivindependent.com/kazakhstan-brics/) 'in the foreseeable future.'

⚡️US, South Korea, Japan launch (kyivindependent.com/us-south-korea-japan-to-monitor-north-korea-sanctions-under-new-multinational-group/) multinational group to monitor North Korea sanctions.
The move came after Russia and China blocked monitoring activities at the United Nations. In March, Moscow vetoed the annual renewal of the panel of experts monitoring U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

⚡️Loss of coal mine near Pokrovsk (kyivindependent.com/coal-mine-pokrovsk/) would reportedly halve Ukraine's steel production.
Ukraine's steel production could drop by half if Russian troops capture a vital coal mine near the town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, Reuters reported on Oct. 16, citing Oleksandr Kalenkov, the head of Ukraine's steelmakers' association.

Germany's Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft were scrambled due to a flight of a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance plane over the international waters of the Baltic Sea, the German Air Force said on Oct. 16. https://kyivindependent.com/german-jets-baltic-sea/

⚡️SBU arrests (kyivindependent.com/sbu-arrests-ukrenergo-official-for-allegedly-justifying-russias-war-supporting-murder-of-civilians/) Ukrenergo security head for allegedly justifying Russia's war, supporting murder of civilians.

⚡️Scholz says he is open to talk (kyivindependent.com/scholz-says-he-is-open-to-talk-to-putin-about-peace-in-ukraine/) to Putin about peace in Ukraine.

⚡️UK investigating whether Russia planted (kyivindependent.com/uk-investigating-whether-russia-planted-explosive-device-that-caused-parcel-fire-at-warehouse-guardian-reports/) incendiary device that caused parcel fire at warehouse, Guardian reports.
U.K. counter-terrorism officials are investigating whether Russian intelligence officers planted an incendiary device inside a parcel that caught fire at a warehouse near Birmingham, the Guardian reported on Oct. 16.
The parcel, which engulfed in flames at a DHL warehouse on July 22, is believed to have been transported to the location on an airliner.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦- OCT 17, 2024
■ Engagements below 7-day average but casualties remain well above it
■ Substantial equipment losses; notable tank & artillery losses
■ Fewer strikes on both sides; strike ratio in the low double digits

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

In the latest U.S. military aid package, Ukraine will receive:
▫️1 Patriot battery
▫️1,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
▫️2,000 Humvee vehicles (HMMWV)
▫️10,000 grenade launchers

“The Nordic-Baltic countries will provide a joint energy package to Ukraine before winter,” announced Sweden’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Maria Stenergard.
She added that Sweden has invested 28 million euros in the package to help Ukrainians get through the winter.

Switzerland has fully adopted the 14th package of EU sanctions against Russia.
With this decision, Switzerland implemented restrictive measures from the latest EU sanctions package, which it had not yet joined. Among other measures, it further tightens restrictions on the export of goods intended to enhance Russia’s military-technical capabilities and adds 61 legal entities and 27 vessels from Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ to Switzerland’s sanctions list.

Ukraine has conducted over 7,000 strikes on Russian territory in a year, CNN reports.
Despite Russian air defenses, the success rate could reach 95% if the U.S. allows the use of Western weapons for deeper strikes into Russia.
Around 30% of drones are decoys, and Ukrainian UAVs follow complex programmed routes.

The EU must provide stronger security guarantees to Ukraine, said Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, while discussing the Victory Plan for Ukraine announced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. [yes well, they'd have to be willing to back them up]

🇨🇭 Switzerland has decided to supply Ukraine with three demining machines, President Viola Amherd said

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

A man was shot dead in his car near Moscow, and Russian media reports indicate that he was the deputy commander of the Russian Special Operations Forces (SSO) training center who participated in the war against Ukraine.
It is believed that the victim was 44-year-old Nikita Klenkov, who served in a special forces unit of Russian military intelligence. He had returned from the front just a week ago. Klenkov was killed near the Special Operations Forces training center.

The U.S. will now train more young Ukrainian F-16 pilots instead of experienced ones, according to the WSJ.
It turns out that cadets are more open to the Western style of training, while experienced military personnel tend to face challenges with the English language.
However, training a young pilot takes more time, meaning that Ukraine is unlikely to have a full squadron of F-16s—20 planes and 40 pilots—by spring or summer 2025.
Currently, eight experienced fighter pilots are finishing their F-16 training in Arizona and are expected to arrive in Ukraine in early 2025. @notimagain

🇺🇸NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Ukraine will join the Alliance as its 33rd or 34th member in the future.

⚠️Russians launched another drone attack on Kyiv, with drones approaching in waves from different directions.
Air raid alarms were triggered four times throughout the night. Thanks to air defense systems, all Russian UAVs were neutralized.
Debris from the drones caused damage to a residential building in the Desnianskyi district.

🇺🇦🇬🇷 Ukraine and Greece have signed a bilateral security agreement.
Greece has committed to continue meeting Ukraine’s most urgent defense needs. Additionally, Greece will assist in training Ukrainian F-16 pilots and technical personnel for these aircraft.

🇬🇧The UK has introduced its largest sanctions package against Russia’s shadow fleet.
The restrictions target 18 Russian oil tankers and four liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers. In total, 43 Russian vessels are now under British sanctions.
These tankers are prohibited from entering UK ports and accessing leading global maritime services provided by the UK.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

With old workarounds no longer effective, new payment issues plague Russia’s already complex auto import industry, with 40% of sales now affected.
www.kyivpost.com/post/40634

Key points from Zelensky’s speech to the EU Council:
▪️Most EU partners now support our Victory Plan. Regarding Orbán, Zelensky stated, “We greet each other,” which is a sign of progress.
▪️The Victory Plan includes not only military but also economic measures to strengthen Ukraine.
▪️All partners want Russia to be present at the Peace Summit. Therefore, a strong position is needed.
▪️North Korean officers are already present in the occupied territories of Ukraine. This is official confirmation that a second country is fully becoming involved in the war. Iran is actively providing weapons.
▪️If you say that Ukraine is important for the security of the continent, then an invitation to NATO is certainly not a “red line.” Words must be backed by actions.

Hoping for a treat from his Russian masters, Putin's pet Prime Minister of Slovakia announces his upcoming trip to Moscow, saying "there's no evidence" regarding Russia's Bucha massacres and that he's "a big supporter of restoring relations with Russia".
www.kyivpost.com/post/40654

Western Weakness Risks Handing an Entire Generation of Ukrainians to Putin
www.kyivpost.com/post/40660

Frustrated after months of attempts to oust the Ukrainian Army from Kursk region by military means, the Russians have reverted to their standard tactic of destroying towns with glide bombs and artillery.
Sverdlikovo, Kursk

Good luck @DucklingSwimmingInstructress and look forward to your return soon x

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress 💐

Thank you. Oddly enough, Ive just discovered Ill miss doing the roundup! But Ill be keeping track to some degree.

This thread is filled with outstanding people.

I would like to add my best wishes to you, Ducks; and my thanks to you and all others who have kept, and will keep, this resource running. I hope against hope that it won’t be for very much longer.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦

for a quick recovery @DucklingSwimmingInstructress

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-17-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian sources reported on October 16 that unspecified actors killed the deputy commander of Russia's Special Operations Forces (SSO) Training Center, Nikita Klenkov, near Moscow City.
• The European Union (EU) issued a statement on October 16 condemning Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and noted that at least 177 Ukrainian POWs have died in Russian captivity since February 2022.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.