Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

You’ll like a lot of this clip then.

Neat car chase.

We just need to mount a machine gun off the back of MissConduct's subaru and she will be all set 😁

That lad should know that it's not safe to wear earbuds while driving. 😂

We also have a 2023 Impreza, but it's ice silver, not red, and it's not the WRX/turbo model. What can I say, I'm just a middle class mum.

My first choice would be to mount the same 25mm chain gun that the Bradley carries, but there isn't room in the back for the ammo cartridges. And it's a bit heavy. So I'll settle for the TOW anti-tank missile launcher from the Brad. It's only about 50 pounds and the reloads hardly take up any space at all.

@MissConductUS excellent choice of er, gun.

We shall send you out there in the Subaru Forester. Your call sign will be Trollhunter. 💪💪💪💙💛

I'll be the motorbike outrider 😈

Weirdly, I had a dream last night of us setting off in a mumsnet convoy across Europe to Kyiv. It started with half a dozen from London and kept gathering more cars like a motorcade snowball until we blocked up every lane at the tolls. Drones and crumpets were involved.

That's what we should have done in the first place. Create a crumpet-cade and invaded Kursk right at the start of the war.

I like the ABC dream of a mn-led motorcade snowball heading towards Kursk with air support from notimagain, artillery from MissConduct with Ducks and various outriders. 😁💙💛

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces continued to marginally advance in Kursk Oblast on August 19 amid continued fighting throughout the Ukrainian salient in the area.
• Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov aggravated a situation that the Kremlin has historically treated with extreme caution by calling for conscripts to participate in combat operations in Kursk Oblast and dismissing concerns from relatives of conscripts.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Azerbaijan on August 18, likely in an effort to shift focus away from the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and present himself as a continually effective diplomat.
• The Kremlin's response to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast has emphasized how the Kremlin's internal priorities have increasingly oriented towards regime stability, especially over the past year.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on August 19 further codifying a vague Russian state ideology into Russian law without concretely modifying the Russian Constitution. Putin's effort to codify a specific ideology may be intended to counter the Russian ultranationalist community's own efforts to establish an accepted national ideology.
• Russian officials continued attempts to falsely frame Ukraine as responsible for the lack of negotiations to end the war.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar.
• Local Sakhalin Oblast media outlet Sakhalin Media reported on August 19 that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) Border Service in Sakhalin Oblast and other federal subjects within the Russian Far East, Northwestern, and North Caucasian federal okrugs has resumed conscription for the first time in an unspecified "long" length of time.

Poised to run Putin over...I'm in!

@heldinadream 😂

I would be happy to provide fire support for such a mission, but I'd leave the Forester at home and pick up an M2A2 Bradley in Germany on my way to Ukraine.

In other good news, the events in Kursk seem to be taking a toll on Putin's support from the Russian elites.

Is Putin’s Inner Circle Wobbling? - A prominent oligarch is publicly critical of the war. He likely isn’t alone.

The public criticism is telling. They sense weakness or this would not be happening.

I've played rounders, can I be in charge of the flash bangs?

definitely, @L1ttledrummergirl !

I shall look forward to reading that article when Ive done the roundup. Putin's the ultimate survivor, but it's very nice to read of his troubles given what he's done.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine's military says battles ongoing in Niu-York https://kyivindependent.com/heavy-battles-in-niu-york/ amid Russia's reported advance.

⚡️Ukraine in control https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-in-control-of-92-settlements-in-russias-kursk-oblast-zelensky-claims/ of 92 settlements and more than 1,250 square kilometers of Kursk Oblast in Russia, Zelensky claims.

⚡️ Pontoon crossing https://kyivindependent.com/pontoon-river-crossing-in-russia-kursk-oblast/ in Russia's Kursk Oblast 'disappears' in possible blast, RFE/RL reports.
One of at least two pontoon bridges built by Russia over the Seim River in Kursk Oblast is no longer visible in satellite imagery, and smoke was detected in the area, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported on Aug. 19.

⚡️ Russia preparing new attacks in Vovchansk https://kyivindependent.com/russia-preparing-for-new-attacks-in-kharkiv-oblast/ in Kharkiv Oblast, military says.

⚡️ Higher chlorine air concentration in Ternopil https://kyivindependent.com/higher-chlorine-air-concentration-in-ternopil/ after Russian attack on industrial site.

Belarus has deployed additional air defense troops and aircraft to its border with Ukraine, Maj. Gen. Andrey Lukyanovich, commander of the Belarusian Air Defense Forces, announced on Aug. 19. https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-sends-more-troops-aircraft-to-border-with-ukraine/

https://kyivindependent.com/democratic-convention-kicks-off-with-celebrations-biden-keynote-and-few-details-on-ukraine/

Convention delegates on Aug. 19 confirmed the Democrats' official party platform. The 92-page document highlights Biden's stance against Putin and his support of NATO expansion. In terms of a future Harris administration’s Ukraine policy, however, the platform is light on details.

⚡️Germany will deliver https://kyivindependent.com/germany-will-deliver-4-more-iris-t-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine-before-end-of-2024/ 4 more IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine before end of 2024.

⚡️Czechia to use frozen Russian assets profits https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-to-use-frozen-russian-assets-profits-to-fund-ammunition-for-ukraine/ to fund ammunition for Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine's parliament adopts bill https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-parliament-passes-bill-potentially-baning-moscow-linked-church/ potentially banning Moscow-linked church.

⚡️Lithuania starts construction of military base for German troops near Russian border. https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-starts-construction-of-military-base-for-german-troops-near-russian-border/

Lithuania on Aug. 19 began construction of a military base that will house up to 4,000 combat-ready German troops, with completion expected by the end of 2027. This marks the first permanent foreign deployment for the German military since World War II.

⚡️Kyiv to launch new body https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-to-launch-new-state-body/ for countering Russian influence among Ukrainian diaspora.
The Ukrainian government is preparing to launch a new institution that would promote Ukrainian unity abroad and counter Russian influence, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Aug. 19.

⚡️Shares of German arms companies fall amid debate https://kyivindependent.com/shares-of-german-arms-companies-fall-amid-debate-over-aid-to-ukraine-spiegel-says/ over aid to Ukraine, Spiegel says.

⚡️Ukraine may join NATO despite being partially occupied by Russia, Czech president says. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-president-doesn/

⚡️Russia willing to participate in South Caucasus peace settlement amid 'crisis' in Ukraine, Putin says. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-willing-to-participate-in-settlement-of-situation-in-south-caucasus-amid-crisis-in-ukraine-putin-says/

⚡️Chechen commander says Russian conscripts must fight in Kursk Oblast, promises 'heaven' for killed. https://kyivindependent.com/chechen-commander/

⚡️Nearly 1 million people https://kyivindependent.com/nearly-million-people-liable-for-military-service-reserved-in-ukraine-defense-ministry-says/ temporarily exempted from military service, Defense Ministry says.
About 930,000 Ukrainians liable for military service are temporarily exempted from military service, while their number may reach one million in a week, Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havryliuk said.

Opinion: The hidden toll of Ukraine’s aid workers demands recognition on World Humanitarian Day https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-the-hidden-toll-of-ukraines-aid-workers-demands-recognition-on-world-humanitarian-day/

An intelligence network operated in Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts. The suspects surveilled the Ukrainian Armed Forces and critical infrastructure facilities https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-uncovers-russian-intelligence-network-involving-ukrainian-law-enforcement-officers/

⚡️Defected Russian soldier reveals he spied https://kyivindependent.com/defected-russian-soldier-reveals-he-spied-for-ukraine-injured-his-commander/ for Ukraine, and injured his commander in a grenade attack, HUR revealed at a press conference on Aug. 20 attended by a Kyiv Independent reporter.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 5, injure 21 over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪
AUG 20, 2024
■ Engagements stay above 7-day average, high casualties
■ Record high special equipment losses, big APV & vehicle losses
■ Fewer strikes on both sides but ratio could be better

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated Germany’s commitment to supporting Ukraine, emphasizing the country’s position as the strongest European supporter of Ukraine. He announced that Germany, in collaboration with the G7, is launching a €50 billion loan program aimed at enabling Ukraine to make large-scale purchases of weapons.

For the second day, a fire has been burning at the "Kavkaz" plant in the Rostov region of the Russian Federation. Yesterday he was hit by Ukrainian drones
Because of this, a state of emergency was introduced in the territory of the Proletarsky district, where the plant is located, the governor of the Russian region, Vasyl Golubev, said.

Enemy Strikes Industrial Facility in Ternopil, Fuel Tank Ignites — Regional Military Administration
An industrial facility in Ternopil was struck by the enemy, resulting in a fuel tank catching fire, according to the Regional Military Administration.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov Rules Out Negotiations with Ukraine Following Offensive in Kursk Region

Ukraine Receives Six Nikken BM307-V16 Mine Clearance Vehicles from Japan
These 16-ton machines are modernized versions of the Hitachi ZX160 excavator, equipped with specialized mine action tools. The Nikken BM307-V16 features a mechanical scanning device, the HT80, with 31 teeth for soil digging. It uses a high-speed rotary cutter that penetrates 30 cm into the ground to detonate and neutralize anti-personnel mines. Each vehicle can clear between 400 and 800 square meters of mines per hour.
The equipment also comes with various tools, including a standard excavation bucket, hydraulic shears, a hydraulic hammer, and a mulcher. In addition to supplying the vehicles, Japan is training Ukrainian operators at the Cambodian Mine Action Center (CMAC).

Ukraine Deploys New Naval Drone in Crimea, Based on a Jet Ski Design
The Ukrainian military has introduced a new naval drone, modified from a jet ski, which was used against Russian forces in the temporarily occupied Crimea. Ukraine continues to impress observers with its innovative UAV developments, according to OSINT expert H.I. Sutton.
Sutton published a model of the new drone on his website. He speculated that the design is a successor to the Yamaha Waverunner FX jet ski, one of which was found on a beach in Istanbul last month.
This drone is equipped with electro-optical and infrared cameras positioned in the front, where the steering wheel would typically be. It also features a radar antenna at the stern and can be fitted with a Starlink antenna. Details on the nose of the drone suggest the presence of a shock-detonation fuse.

In 2022, solar energy surpassed hard coal in electricity production across the European Union for the first time, according to Eurostat data. Solar energy accounted for 210,249 GWh of the EU’s total electricity production, while hard coal contributed slightly less at 205,693 GWh.
Poland and the Czech Republic remain the EU’s only hard coal producers, with Poland notably relying on it as a primary source for electricity generation. Additionally, lignite is used for electricity production in nine EU countries.

At yesterday's concert in the American city of Chicago, the leader of the band "Imagine Dragons" took the Ukrainian blue-yellow flag from the hands of a fan and raised it on stage.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇦🇮🇳🇷🇺According to Bloomberg's sources, the Indian prime minister is to deliver a message to President Zelensky from Putin https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-19/modi-will-visit-ukraine-for-first-time-since-russia-s-invasion

The newspaper writes that India is ready to deliver the message, but has refused to mediate in ending the Russian-Ukrainian war.
ℹ️This is partly due to the fact that the country is dependent on Russian cheap oil and weapons. No war means no big discounts on Russian oil.

Russia's Defense Ministry claims to have captured Niu York, Ukrainian General Staff does not comment

The oil depot in Proletarsk, Russia, attacked by drones, has already burnt out 11 fuel tanks. The fire has been burning since yesterday morning, and more than 40 rescuers were injured during the extinguishment

In the Kursk direction, Ukrainian aviation destroyed a Russian underground command post with an AASM Hammer guided missile

Putin signed a decree allowing persons “who share traditional Russian spiritual and moral values” to obtain a residence permit in Russia without taking into account quotas and language skills

We have reached a point in the war where experts on Russian television are calling for carpet bombing of Russian territory https://t.me/liveukraine_media/23614

The “Russian veteran” who called on men to stop running away and defend Kursk turned out to be the owner of a funeral home
A businessman from St. Petersburg is engaged in cremation, burial and delivery of “cargo 200”
Russian journalists contacted the man and asked if he planned to fight himself, but he evaded the question.
Something tells us that we won't see him with a weapon, because his business in Russia is only flourishing.

Russian neo-Nazis from the Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group "Rusich", who are fighting against Ukraine as part of the Russian Armed Forces, have openly called for a Ukrainian prisoner of war to be handed over to them for sacrifice
"We ask allied units to provide us with one captive khokhol [Ukrainian] (preferably not a Slav, but a smoked, Crimean Tatar or something similar) to conduct a ritual sacrifice to the Slavic Gods on the holiday of the autumnal equinox to invigorate and strengthen the spirit of the new personnel of the unit. Use feedback bot to offer," the post says.

🤡President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that in the end the Ukrainians will be together with the Belarusians and Russians, as they will soon realize that the West just used and deceived them

American guy in the ranks of the Russian Army
For further context:
This is Wilmer Puello-Mota, former politician in Holyoke (MA). He is wanted for Child Pornography Possession in the state of Rhode Island. He skipped a court appearance in January 2024 and joined the Russian Army instead, according to his lawyer. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/23616

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russia plans to double the number of troops in Ukraine to 800,000 by the end of this year - Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Havrylyuk told Forbes.

After visits from aspiring Ukrainian drones 3 days ago, the fires at the Proletarsk oil storage complex in Russia's Rostov region continue to spread, with 22 out of the 70 tanks destroyed.

❗️Four civilians were killed as a result of Russian artillery shelling in Toretsk and Zarichne in the Donetsk region

A Kyiv Post journalist's firsthand account of life in Russia's Kursk region with Ukrainian forces in control.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37669

800,000 Russian troops in Ukraine by the end of the year :(

My German partner has pointed that Putin has managed to create a situation where a Eastern European country is actively asking to have 4,000 German troops stationed on its soil.

You can! But flash bangs aren't normal carried in combat unless it's a hostage rescue mission. We'll get you some good, old-fashioned M67s instead.

More good news re Kursk. Putin waved his magic wand and ordered the army to retake Kursk by October 1st, with the condition that they can't use forces currently in the Donbas to do so.

Putin orders Ukrainian forces to be pushed out of Kursk region by October 1, sources

This means that the Ukrainians will be fighting conscripts, border guards, and social media obsessed Chechens instead of regular troops.

And now that the last permanent bridge over the Seym River has been disabled, the Ukrainians will capture another 3k or so troops stranded on the southern side of the river.

Many are said to be ethnic Russian conscripts who are not supposed to be in combat roles at all. I'm sure that videos of them will be all over social media, further weakening Putin's political support.

I thought they might provide a distraction.

The M67s look messy, but if needs must.

Thank you all for your updates.

More good news re Kursk. Putin waved his magic wand and ordered the army to retake Kursk by October 1st, with the condition that they can't use forces currently in the Donbas to do so.

Fuck me, that's a man who likes to set himself up for failure.

Is this likely to get reported within Russia? So that he can fail on the all-important domestic stage too?

@L1ttledrummergirl, flash bangs do provide a distraction. Unfortunately, 20-30 seconds later, the enemy recovers and starts shooting at you. Just think about Bucha and Irpin and pull the pin on the frag.

@PerkingFaintly, Ukraine is blessed with an incompetent enemy, thank God. Putin loves to micromanage the already ponderous and corrupt Russian military. When politicians make decisions like this, I imagine airline passengers trying to grab the controls during an inflight emergency. Yes, we know you are scared. The pilot will handle the emergency better than you can, so sit down and shut up. Let's hope Putin's eventual replacement suffers from the same cognitive impairment. It's a classic case of the Dunning Kruger Effect.

Apart from Putin, we can probably include Trump and Musk as suffering from Dunning-Kruger effect.

Following 💛💙

@blueshoes can I add myself to that list please? As a nervous flyer, I often feel I should be in the cockpit monitoring "helping" the pilots.