Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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Biafra was simpler.... Cause a famine, blockade the area, and wait for them all to starve.

(Have I ever mentioned that I don't always think much of humanity as a whole?)

I know, it’s not new, but it’s even more horrific as before social media we were less aware of it in real time, and you always hope that civilisation develops.

I just can’t imagine the mental torture of being raped while my daughter watched, knowing she’d probably be next. Or to have my girl kidnapped and not seen for years. The sense of injustice and anguish for the Ukranian people just grows daily. Meanwhile talks of truce or peace deals, mind blowing. Sorry I know I’m stating the obvious but some days it just gets you.

@dibly Bless you yes it does get to you. I was in tears and unable to speak immediately after watching the Rwanda programme.
It gets to us because we still have hearts. That's a good thing.
Take care of yourself. 💔

So has Musk sent a cyberbeast tesla to Chechnya? Or is it a distorted story?

Don't know, @Hillsmakeyoustrong

Not sure we can assume Musk as sent it, but at first glance it does look like Kadyrov has got hold of one somehow…

PM

It's nice to see you, @notimagain. The Ukrainian Air Force is getting credit for taking out the bridges in Kursk, reportedly with JDAM-ER munitions.

Ukrainian Air Force destroys second bridge over the Seim River

And speaking of Elon, he gave a talk to the cadets at West Point yesterday that I was able to attend. He thinks a lot about the future of warfare and had some interesting things to say.

https://x.com/DeanUsma/status/1824524441780621517

He didn't donate any vehicles though.

to @dibly @heldinadream and all finding it difficult to process. @DucklingSwimmingInstructress I know it gets to you too. Just unrelenting.

On Friday 16th August it’s been 24 years since I left Ukraine to settle in the UK, half of my life ago. I never thought I wouldn’t be able to come back and visit whenever I wanted to. Recently I’ve been having any dreams of Donetsk and my old friends who I don’t know what happened to. Will I ever see Ukrainian Donetsk in my life time? Photo from telegram of one of the borders to Donetsk oblast as it is now.

@MissConductUS what on earth is Musk like irl? He seems an increasingly dreadful person.

This can’t be true, surely not?

Whilst I fundamentally disagree with him on an increasing number of things, I also frequently have to remind myself he lives with autism and obviously that explains a lot of his difficulties in communicating.

Being autistic isn't an excuse for becoming a riot-fomenting, utterly selfish, hate spreading individual who awards himself a bonus of 56 BILLION.

Thank you. Honestly messages like this make all the difference in this difficult world. 💖

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are not in themselves decisive military operations that will win the war. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces lack the capability to conduct individual decisive war-winning operations and must instead conduct multiple successive operations with limited operational objectives that are far short of victory, but that in aggregate can achieve strategic objectives.
• It is too early to assess the outcomes and operational significance of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia and the ongoing Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine. The significance of these operations will not emerge in isolation, moreover, but they will matter in so far as they relate to a series of subsequent Russian and Ukrainian campaigns over time.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command likely view maintaining the theater-wide initiative as a strategic imperative to win a war of attrition against Ukraine, and both the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast and the Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine will impact whether Russian forces can retain the initiative in the short-term.
• Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast does not have long-term territorial objectives but instead aims to generate theater-wide operational and strategic pressures on Russian forces.
• The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast has already generated theater-wide operational and strategic pressures on Russian forces, and subsequent phases of fighting within Russia will likely generate even greater pressures on Putin and the Russian military.
• Russian forces will not be able to retain the initiative throughout eastern Ukraine indefinitely, and the culmination of Russian offensive operations will present Ukrainian forces with opportunities to contest the initiative further.
• The Russian offensive operation to seize Pokrovsk is emblematic of the Russian approach to the war in Ukraine that embraces positional warfare for gradual creeping advances and seeks to win a war of attrition.
• Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast illustrates how Ukrainian forces can use maneuver warfare to offset Russian manpower and materiel advantages.
• It is simply too early to draw dispositive conclusions about the lasting effects that the two very different Russian and Ukrainian efforts will have on the course of the war.
• ISW offers these observations about the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast and the months-long Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine to provide a balanced framework for assessing the significance of the current Russian and Ukrainian operations on the course of the entire war, which will remain uncertain for the foreseeable future.
• Russia and Ukraine were reportedly planning to meet in Qatar in August 2024 to discuss a possible moratorium on Ukrainian and Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, but Russia temporarily postponed the summit after the start of the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.
• Russia remains uninterested in any broader, meaningful negotiations regardless of Russia's willingness to entertain or agree to a possible moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes.
• Russia is almost certainly only considering a possible moratorium on energy strikes due to Ukraine's months-long strike campaign against Russian oil refineries — demonstrating a secondary effect of Ukraine's strike campaign.
• Ukrainian forces advanced within Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kreminna, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
• The Russian government continues efforts to use the "Time of Heroes" program to integrate trusted Russian military veterans into Russian government roles.

* *

@Mb76 may dreams come true. Don't lose hope.💙💙💙💛💛💛

Apologies, meant to quote @Mb76 in my last post.

No this is definitely true but it can explain his communication style and the way he becomes completely obsessed with specific topics and issues.

@Mb76 cant imagine how difficult things must be 💐. And 🌷 and thanks to @blueshoes and @heldinadream. And gin to all of us!

Ah gin. Yes; there's always gin! 😁

Amen to gin and a strong brew from @PerkingFaintly 😁

Chin chin!

FT article on "[Russian] People are horrified’: Moscow turns to reluctant conscripts to defend Kursk"

archive.is/dREfQ#selection-1705.1-1705.76

Imagine the horror to find your 18 year old son doing compulsory national service in Russia has been sent to the front link in Kursk. Hey ho

"Russian conscripts, estimated by Luzin to number 300,000, are almost the only significant reserve available to the Kremlin. Putin has repeatedly stated that conscripts are not deployed to combat zones. Under Russian law, only conscripts who have served at least four months and have special skills can be sent to a combat zone. But the law can be easily defied.

“Conscripts are being forced to sign contracts, and their documents are being falsified to make it appear as though they have been serving for a long time,” said Chuvilayev from Go by the Forest.
....

Several petitions have appeared on Change.org from the mothers of conscripts, addressing Putin and demanding their children be withdrawn from the combat zone.

“You promised that they [the conscripts] wouldn’t be involved in military actions!!!! We believe in you. We are patriots!!!” Oksana wrote. “Elite, heavily armed brigades against our children with rifles. Every day, more parents find their children in videos and photos among the captured,” another mother, Irina, posted."

@Mb76

Here's to a future where you can return to Donetsk in safety.