Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

@Mb76 I hope you can return. I hope that peace comes, and that education can happen, and re-building flourish.

He was quite like himself when he was on television - a bit glib but articulate. He seemed to be a bit in awe of West Point and all of the uniforms he was surrounded by. It's a pretty impressive place and quite obviously a military base as well as a university. He got a warm welcome from the audience. He gave a similar talk to the cadets at the USAF Academy earlier this year.

By the way, his visit was on Friday, not yesterday.

Were there any hints of how, well, honestly, destructive he's turned out to be?

The discussion with the Dean never turned political. It really stayed focused on the future of warfare - drones, the role of AI and autonomous systems, etc. He doesn't think there's much of a future for human pilots of fighter aircraft, for example. I'm not sure if he said that at the USAF Academy. West Point didn't permit any video or audio recording of the talk.

Thanks.

@MissConductUS I don't know if Musk talked about it but I find the use of AI in weapons systems (perhaps to counter EW) quite terrifying. The thought that weapons can make decisions which on how to target/kill autonomously.

That topic was discussed extensively. It's not quite as new as you think. Cruise missiles, for example, have had some visual recognition abilities for some time. Anti-ship missiles, for example do image processing to select ships to target and land based missiles do terrain following.

Making them autonomous is an excellent way to negate electronic warfare, as you point out. Loitering munitions that can recognize enemy tanks and armored vehicles are under development. Musk pointed out that these developments will drive soldiers away from the FEBA (forward edge of the battle area) and leave it to machines to fight it out.

It's quite an evolution, to be sure. AI is not anywhere near being able to distinguish between friendly and enemy soldiers, and picking them off individually isn't cost-effective.

The biggest tactical benefit is AI's ability to radically shorten the kill chain. The side that can do that will have a decisive advantage

@MissConductUS appreciate the clear and detailed explanation. That makes total sense.

Personally if someone had sent me a Cybertruck, I'd think that they disliked me.

And certainly had no respect for my sense of aesthetics !

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces continued assaults throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast on August 18 and marginally advanced southeast of Sudzha.
• The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast continues to force Russia to redeploy forces from elsewhere in the theater, and likely subsequent phases of fighting within Russia will require more Russian manpower and materiel commitments to the area.
• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil depot in Rostov Oblast that supplies oil to the Russian military on the night of August 17 to 18.
• Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova denied that Russia planned to engage in reported negotiations with Ukraine and Qatar on a moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Donetsk City. Ukrainian forces regained previously lost positions near Siversk.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine hits 3rd bridge in Kursk Oblast, Russia claims. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-allegedly-hits-3rd-bridge/

⚡️Governor announces mandatory evacuation https://kyivindependent.com/pokrovsks-residents-have-2-weeks-to-evacuate/ of children from Pokrovsk.
Families with children will be mandatorily evacuated from the Pokrovsk community in Donetsk Oblast as Russian forces approach, Governor Vadym Filashkin said on Aug. 19.
“More than 53,000 people, including almost 4,000 children, still live here, but the front has now come too close to Pokrovsk, and this warrants an appropriate response,” Filashkin said on social media.

⚡️ Russia used over 40 missiles, 750 guided bombs against Ukraine this week, Zelensky says. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-used-over-40-missiles-750-guided-bombs-against-ukraine-this-week-zelensky-says/

⚡️Germany has supplied a new IRIS-T SLS air defense missile system, 14,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition, 10 naval drones, and other equipment in its latest military aid delivery to Ukraine, the German government said on Aug. 19. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-delivers-iris-t-air-defense-system-other-aid-to-ukraine/

⚡️ German Foreign Ministry refutes claims https://kyivindependent.com/german-foreign-ministry-refutes-claims-that-berlin-will-not-provide-kyiv-with-assistance-next-year/

The German Foreign Ministry refuted claims that Berlin will not provide Kyiv with assistance next year, Suspilne media outlet reported on Aug. 18.
Germany’s bilateral assistance to Ukraine will be gradually redirected toward international programs in the future, the German Finance Ministry clarified.

⚡️India's Foreign Ministry confirms Modi's upcoming visit to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/indias-foreign-ministry-confirms-modis-upcoming-visit-to-ukraine/

⚡️ Pro-Kremlin fake sites spread false claims Democrats plotted to assassinate Trump, AFP reports https://kyivindependent.com/pro-kremlin-fake-sites-spreading-false-claims-ahead-of-us-election-media-says/
Pro-Kremlin websites masquerading as American news outlets spread incendiary falsehoods ahead of the U.S. presidential election, the AFP news agency reported on Aug. 19.

⚡️Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear energy company, uses a Dutch subsidiary to move "hundreds of millions in profits," Dutch news outlet NOS reported, citing a report from Uranium One Cooperative. https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-nuclear-giant-rosatom-funneled-hundreds-of-millions-euro-in-profits-through-the-netherlands/ [GRRRRR]

⚡️ Ukraine to resume scheduled blackouts after 3-week break, says state grid operator. https://kyivindependent.com/energy-cuts-return-to-ukraine-after-three-weeks-break-state-grid-operator-says/

⚡️Putin arrives in Azerbaijan for first state visit since full-scale invasion began. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-arrives-in-azerbaijan-for-first-state-visit-since-full-scale-invasion-began/

⚡️Russia denies https://kyivindependent.com/russia-denies-reported-indirect-negotiations-with-ukraine-to-halt-energy-strikes/ reported indirect negotiations with Ukraine to halt energy strikes.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova denied on Aug. 18 a report that the country was entering indirect talks with Ukraine in Qatar on mutually halting strikes on energy infrastructure.

⚡️Explosion at petrochemical plant in Russia's Bashkortostan injures 3. https://kyivindependent.com/explosion-at-petrochemical-plant-in-russias/

⚡️Energy equipment fire https://kyivindependent.com/russia-mariinsk-fire/ causes outages in Russian town, railroad section in Siberia.

⚡️ Kyrgyzstan's major bank suspends transfers https://kyivindependent.com/kyrgyzstan-bank-suspends-transfers-through-russian-banks/ via sanctioned Russian banks.
"Money transfers through Russian banks, including Sberbank, Tinkoff, and MTS, have been suspended in both directions. This service is unavailable indefinitely," MBank's statement read.

⚡️ Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi was considering an attack against Russia's Bryansk Oblast as an alternative to the Kursk incursion, The Economist reported on Aug. 18, citing military sources. https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-kursk-economist/

⚡️ Kherson Oblast nature reserve damaged but not fully destroyed by Russia, director clarifies.
The Askania-Nova Nature Reserve in Kherson Oblast suffered heavily under Russian occupation but has not been fully destroyed as of now, the reserve's director, Viktor Shapoval, said in a comment for Suspilne on Aug. 19 https://kyivindependent.com/kherson-oblast-nature-reserve/

⚡️Russia labels George Clooney's foundation 'undesirable.' https://kyivindependent.com/russia-labels-george-clooney-foundation-undesirable/

⚡️Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4, injure 17 over past day. https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-82/

⚡️ Russian attacks on Toretsk, Zarichne in Donetsk Oblast kill 4.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪- AUG 19, 2024
■ Engagements above 7-day average, casualties reach 600k milestone
■ Missile, air defence, special equipment, MLRS & drone losses above average
■ 🇺🇦 strikes stay high but 🇷🇺 ones also above average

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia Attacks Substation in Dnipropetrovsk Region and Double-Taps the Rescuers, — Ministry of Energy
An employee of the State Emergency Service was injured in the attack and has been hospitalized.
In the Donetsk region, shelling also damaged equipment at one of the substations.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer Directs National Security Council to Develop Strategy for Increased Support to Ukraine, — The Times
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has instructed the National Security Council to develop a comprehensive strategy for boosting support to Ukraine, The Times reports.
An anonymous military source suggested that the prime minister’s approach would encompass a broad range of measures, including military, industrial, economic, and diplomatic assistance.

Hungarian Foreign Minister: Including Russian and Belarusian Citizens in "National Card" Program Poses No Security Risk to Schengen Area
Szijjártó accused EU countries, particularly from Northern Europe and the Baltics, of spreading false information about Hungary's stance. He criticized them for adopting what he described as a "pro-war" position and for continuing what he called a "campaign of lies" against Hungary.

Denmark has unveiled a new military aid package for Ukraine, totaling approximately 783 million Danish kroner (116 million US dollars), according to the Danish government.
The majority of the funds will be used to purchase new military equipment through the Ukrainian defense industry and international partners. This 20th aid package has been designed to meet Ukraine's current and future needs.
Notably, the package includes an increase in the industrial pool by 300 million kroner in 2024, aimed at strengthening Ukraine's defense industry. Additionally, 112 million kroner will be allocated for purchases through Ukrainian defense enterprises.

British Intelligence: Russia Blocks Signal Messenger to Restrict Communication
British intelligence reports that the Russian Federation has blocked the Signal messenger app to disrupt communication among the regime's opponents.
Some commentators suggest that the ban might be intended to prevent the spread of information about the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. However, the British Ministry of Defense considers this unlikely.
Signal is widely used by independent Russian journalists and opposition activists to bypass the Russian government's extensive electronic surveillance system, including monitoring by the FSB.

Following Italian reporters, American journalists also visited the Ukrainian-controlled territory of the Kursk region.
According to The Washington Post, the reporters found no evidence of looting or attacks on civilians by the Ukrainian military. A dozen Russian civilians in Suja confirmed that they were treated well and were unaware of any residents being killed.
Local women expressed gratitude to Ukrainian soldiers for providing medicines, food, and other assistance, though they requested anonymity due to fear of reprisals from Russian authorities.
The soldiers also made sure to care for the local dogs and cats.

Ukraine Has Lost 9 Gigawatts of Energy Production Capacity, Half of What Is Needed for Winter, — EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson, Financial Times
Simson emphasized that, to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine, Western countries must assist in repairing damaged facilities, provide small decentralized generators, deploy photovoltaic systems on the roofs of hospitals and schools, gradually increase electricity exports to Ukraine, and strengthen the country’s air defense.

North Korea Condemns Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia as “Unacceptable Act of Terror” Supported by the West, — Reuters

The “Lyut 2.0” (“Rage 2.0”) Combat Platform Now in Service with the 12th “Azov” Brigade
The Ukrainian robotic drone “Lyut 2.0” is equipped with machine gun armament, has a range of up to 20 km, can operate autonomously for up to 3 days, and features 4th-class protection.
What tasks does “Rage 2.0” perform?
• Infantry fire support
• Battlefield reconnaissance in dangerous areas

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukraine has confirmed the destruction of the third and final bridge across the Seym River, connecting Russian forces to the Glushkovsky District in the Kursk region
Russia can no longer bring supplies or equipment into or out of an area of approximately 640 km², which roughly corresponds to the territory Russia captured in Ukraine over the past year.

Since July, Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has been planning an operation on Russian territory in complete secrecy, The Economist reports. https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/08/18/russias-double-punch-back-against-ukraines-shock-raid
The general considered several options: an offensive in Bryansk, Kursk, or both regions at once to divert Russian forces from Donbas. He discussed his plans with only a few generals and President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Western allies were kept in the dark because Syrskyi's previous two operations had failed because information about them had been shared.

The Russian army is advancing towards Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, and residents have a maximum of two weeks to evacuate, according to the City Military Administration
The pace of evacuation has intensified, with 500-600 people leaving the city daily. The head of the City Military Administration anticipates that a mandatory evacuation of children will be implemented this week.

Apanasovka, Kursk oblast, is no longer under the Russian flag
It has already been torn down by Ukrainian soldiers of the 501st Separate Marine Battalion.

The oil depot in the Rostov Oblast of Russia, which was attacked by drones the day before, has been on fire for almost a day
Three fire trains are working at the site, the region's governor said. Local media reports that the smoke plume has stretched for tens of kilometers.

Meanwhile, in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, our military discovered the personal files of Russian draft evaders who are on the wanted list. They decided to burn these documents.
Journalist Yuriy Butusov reported from the scene, revealing that these files were stored at the Sudzha Military Commissariat, the very place where soldiers were being recruited and sent to the front lines.

Billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk has denied that he gave a Cybertruck electric pickup truck to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov
“Are you seriously so retarded that you think I gave a Cybertruck to a Russian general? That's amazing,” Musk responded to a post by journalist Seth Abramson, ”You're another example of how the outdated media lies.” [the outdated media? Is he under the impression that Twitter is filled only with accurate factual information?]

The Kadyrovites have brought goats to their positions in the Belgorod Oblast, Russia. No joke...🐐
The tiktokers wanted to have some fun, but their plans were thwarted by soldiers of the 17th Separate Tank Brigade who struck the stronghold with drones. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/23566

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

As we cross the 600,000 mark on Russian casualties, let's not forget that Russia's maniacal fantasy of "taking Kyiv in 3 days" began with a force of only around 100,000 troops, complete with the marching band uniforms they'd need to celebrate on Maidan. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37625

I can't fucking believe that Syrsky had laid two previous plans for incursions but they didn't go ahead because information shared with the West reached Russia.

I have hope that you will

If I had to guess, I'd say Germany is the likely leaker. Their counterintelligence and operational security have been awful, and they have a large number of Russian nationals living in the country. Do you remember the German Army Webex call that the Russians hacked into?

Fun with goats?

@MissConductUS I do, and yes I think there's a LOT of Russian elements in the German govt. I guess we'll never know for sure though.

I think the Cybertruck was planted by the CIA or the Ukrainians as an act of sabotage. It's clearly not fit for purpose.

Why you shouldn’t slam the door of your Cybertruck

It would last about ten three minutes in battle.

😁oh dear, that looks flimsy. All style and no substance. Kinda like those tiktok soldiers.

I'd rather go into combat in my Subaru. 😁

At least it's reliable, and the doors don't fall apart.

Subarus are ace! Specially when turbo ....

We are a confirmed Subaru family. I think we've had six over the years. I drive a Forester. We've never had a turbo though.