Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Oh my god. Nov 5/6/7th is going to be agonising. I don’t particularly rate Harris, but it has to be ABT please god.

Does this mean that Russia's Special Forces are likely to take heavy casualties and the FSB's military capabilities be seriously degraded?

And if so, what future impact might this have, please?

If feels like this might be important – but of course I am an ignoramus in this...

It will degrade the FSB's military capacity, but by how much is uncertain.

My understanding of the Russian order of battle is a bit out of date, but the FSB has it's own Spetznaz units called Group Alpha:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Group

The much larger set of Spetznaz troops are part of the Spetznaz GRU

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spetsnaz_GRU

Which are directly in the Russian Army's chain of command. They split them up because no one in Russia trusts anyone they do not directly control.

So even if the FSB special forces are degraded, the rest will not be. And their training will be a bit different from the army GRU special forces, who will be somewhat better at dealing with conventional combined arms forces than the FSB ones. The FSB SF are trained and equipped primarily for counter-terrorism operations (hostage rescue, reconnaissance, etc.), not fighting regular troops.

So, in typical Russian fashion, their dysfunctional organization leads them to use the wrong resources for the mission.

Many thanks, @MissConductUS , I hoped you or one of the thread experts would fill me in.

From what you say and a quick squint at those links, it doesn't look like they were doing anything uniquely useful within Russia, other than being incredibly shit at saving hostages.

So I'm guessing putting them out of action won't make either Putin or Russian infrastructure more physically vulnerable.

As always, I'm happy to be of service. 😀

A lot of the best Spetsnaz GRU troops were killed in the initial invasion as they were sent in to perform various acts of sabotage and assassination attempts against the Ukrainian political leadership. I've since seen many reports of Spetsnaz units being used as regular infantry, despite them not being trained or equipped for that mission. Of course, the Russians are now using navy ship crews as infantry, so that's not surprising. My assessment is that they aren't much of a factor at this point in protecting Putin or Russian infrastructure.

Omg, Trump, just when you think he can’t get worse. He literally has zero emotional intelligence.

The end of Putin's regime is probably coming much sooner than you think.
I would recommend the above feel good video from Jason Smart, a political analyst at Kyiv Post which @DucklingSwimmingInstructress linked to.

Jason acknowledges that the Russian people are unlikely to overthrow Putin. But the factions - the military, FSB and/or oligarchs - will topple him. Putin maintains power by having them at each other's throats so that he is needed by everybody to keep the peace. He reckons an oligarch will cut a deal with the military or intelligence services to place himself pre-emptively in top position before Putin dies for whatever reason, so as to avoid being on the wrong side of the power. Self-survival in a mafia state.

The military hates the FSB because Putin side-lined the military and gave the leadership of the Ukraine invasion to the FSB. Putin allowed the oligarchs to have private military armies so Putin (his mistake) no longer has control of violence. The Russian economy is weakening. The property bubble will burst. Once the usurper claims power, to avoid being killed he will have to protect the capital. Jason thinks the usurper will recall the military from Ukraine and outlying areas to Moscow to protect himself.

Jason does not know when this will happen but when it does, he believes the war will end suddenly. Not in weeks or months, but could be in a matter of hours.

Not sure what people think of this theory.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/22/putin-regime-will-collapse-without-warning-says-freed-gulag-dissident

Vladimir Kara-Murza, Russian dissident and journalist turned political activist is another person who believes that the Putin regime will collapse suddenly and without warning. Like Navalny, he was imprisoned incarcerated in a Siberian prison cell. Recently released, Kara-Murz is now in London with his wife.

"He talks about how, as he was taxiing down the runway of Vnukovo airport [when he was released], the FSB agent sitting next to him told him to look out of the window because it would be the last time he’d see his country. “I just laughed in his face and said, ‘Look man, I’m a historian. I don’t only think, I don’t only believe, I know I will be back home and it’s going to be much quicker than you imagine.’”

Most people he met in the Russian prison system, “the police officers, prison officials, judges, prosecutors, they don’t believe in anything”. Most are not pathological sadists, he says, they were just doing a job. “But the Alpha Group, the FSB special unit that was escorting us, I saw ideological hatred. They believe in this stuff and that’s even scarier.”

Kara-Murza’s grasp of history underpins his certainty that Putin’s regime will collapse – quickly and without warning. “That’s how things happen in Russia. Both the Romanov empire in the early 20th century, and the Soviet regime at the end of the 20th century collapsed in three days. That’s not a metaphor, it was literally three days in both cases.” He believes passionately that the best chance of a free and democratic Russia and peace in Europe rests on Russia’s defeat in Ukraine.

Not sure why I ended up double-posting, so deleted the second one.

Interesting theory and yeah it does hold up to how it's gone historically in Russia. But what will come next and will it be worse than Putin's Russia?

That's definitely the worrying thing. All very well looking forward to Putin's death, downfall, dethroning, but there are no guarantees as to what happens next and the possibility it could be worse is presumably high.

That's what I fear. I have little hope for it being a big positive change in any case, I can't imagine Russia becoming a modern properly democratic country and that respects human rights any time soon.

I suppose the kind of scenario I hope for and imagine is that in the chaos that would ensue at Putin's end somehow the west and the dissidents who are currently both inside and outside Russia can take advantage and bring proper info to the populace and support an uprising.
I'm sure (I hope) there are plans to make such moves. Whether it could be made to work is another matter.

@heldinadream i feel exactly the same as you. I am sure that this has been extensively strategised and different scenarios planned out.

One of the dreadful main TV propagandists actually suggested Putin should resign the other day or something similarly shocking. Not speaking Russian I dont know if this was heavily ironic or something, but that this can be aired even in jest shows some cracks.

I fear that the future for Russia and thus its neighbours is going to be difficult. Apparently about 40% of the Russian budget is being spent on the military and internal security organisations combined nowadays (6% on the military; the 40% includes police, prison service etc I believe).

This indicates an extremely tight societal control and authoritarian type of government, and they aren't known for open minded and cooperative attitudes.

That Putin's end will end the Ukraine war is probably wishful thinking on my part. Agree that his untimely demise will have been war-gamed to death. Thanks for all your views.

My current concern is that the conflict in the Middle East is sucking up all of the oxygen and attention and I fear that Ukraine will be all but forgotten.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-27-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces repelled a reinforced battalion-size Russian mechanized assault in the Kupyansk direction on September 26 — the first large Russian mechanized assault along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since Winter 2024.
• Russian forces may be intensifying their efforts to reach the Oskil River, although Russian advances on the east (left) bank of the Oskil River will likely continue to be relatively gradual.
• The Russian military command has demonstrated that it will likely accept continued gradual gains along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, however.
• The Western Grouping of Forces likely has limited capacity to maintain an intensified offensive effort along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line or conduct effective combat operations that result in more rapid gains.
• Russian authorities appear to be expending a significant amount of effort to influence the Western debate about allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to conduct long-range strikes against military objects in Russia. This Russian effort suggests a deep concern with the operational pressures that such strikes into Russia would generate on Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, although US officials remain hesitant to permit Ukraine to conduct such strikes.
• The benefits of allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided long-range strike systems against Russia may outweigh the risk of Russian retaliation more than Western policymakers are currently considering.
• Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers on September 27, likely as part of the ongoing Kremlin effort to coopt Russian milbloggers and downplay recent backlash in the ultranationalist information space over the death of two prominent drone operators.
• The People's Republic of China (PRC) announced a new initiative to draw international support for its alternative peace plan for Ukraine amid increasing cooperation with Russia.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continued to meet with US officials about the war in Ukraine during his visit to the US on September 26 and 27.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued assaults in Kursk Oblast, but neither side made further advances.
• Russian forces recently advanced within and around Toretsk and southeast of Pokrovsk.
• Russian authorities continue to threaten Russian frontline soldiers' ad-hoc communications networks.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

India will not purchase liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project, which has been sanctioned by Western countries, Indian Oil Secretary Pankaj Jain said on Sept. 27, Reuters reported. https://kyivindependent.com/india-wont-buy-from-sanctioned-russian-arctic-lng-2-project-indian-oil-secretary-says/

⚡️ Advisor to Putin accuses West of isolating Kaliningrad https://kyivindependent.com/advisor-to-putin-accuses-west-of-isolating-kaliningrad-by-disrupting-transit-links/ by disrupting transit links.

As Russian losses in Ukraine surge, some military bloggers turn on Kremlin https://kyivindependent.com/as-russian-losses-in-ukraine-surge-some-military-bloggers-turn-on-kremlin-military-command/ military command
The Kremlin is facing a backlash from Russian military bloggers outraged at reports of specialist troops being sent to storm Ukrainian positions in order to maintain pressure on the front lines

⚡️Mediazona confirms https://kyivindependent.com/over-71-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine-media-report-suggests/ identities of over 71,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine

⚡️Ukraine's Achilles drone strike battalion releases https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-repels-russian-attack/ video of failed Russian assault in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian gains near Pokrovsk put civilians in line of fire
Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Pokrovsk was home to 60,00 residents. Now, the city is under mandatory evacuation as Russian forces advance in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️ Russian double-tap attack on Sumy hospital https://kyivindependent.com/russian-double-tap-attack-on-sumy-hospital-kills-6-injures-1-interior-minister-says/ kills 8, injures 12, interior minister says.
The initial attack claimed one life and caused extensive damage to several floors of the hospital, according to Klymenko. The second strike reportedly hit as rescuers and police arrived to evacuate patients to safety.

⚡️ Update: Russian missile attack https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-hits-administrative-building-in-kryvyi-rih/ on police department in Kryvyi Rih kills 3, injures 6.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪
■ 5th highest casualties; total reaches 650k
■ Equipment losses record: 1.5k in the last 7 days
■ Special equipment record: >4x the previous record (22)
■ Data on 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes missing, 🇺🇦 strikes up (but below average)
Note: Reported special equipment likely vehicle losses, but this is how it was reported at least.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Military Aid to Ukraine at Risk Due to Financial Struggles of Some Allies — Bloomberg
Military supplies to Ukraine for the coming year are at risk due to the financial difficulties faced by some of Ukraine’s allies. Additionally, other countries are hesitant to increase funding for aid, which could jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to maintain its defense efforts.

NATO will place its headquarters in the Finnish city of Mikkeli, which is approximately 140 km from the border with Russia or 300 km from St. Petersburg

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US is reviewing the "victory plan" presented by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to President Joe Biden at the White House.

Another 9 children and a 20-year-old young man were returned from Russian-occupied territories to Ukraine, said Lubynets.
Lubynets emphasized that this return was made possible with Qatar’s mediation.

Elbronn, the French President’s Commissioner for Economic Assistance and Reconstruction of Ukraine, announced that France will aid Ukraine in surviving a difficult winter. This includes both direct aid and investments in energy from a special fund, with France committing €60 million by the end of the year.

Hungary to Join Sino-Brazilian “Friends of Peace” Group, Says Government Spokesman Zoltan Kovacs

Russian forces attacked a hospital in Sumy, where 86 patients, including 15 with reduced mobility, and 38 staff were present during the explosion. As rescuers and police helped with evacuation and provided aid, another strike hit the area. According to the prosecutor's office, seven people have been confirmed dead, and 12 others were injured.
The attack caused significant damage, destroying the reception department, trauma center, and fourth floor. Severely injured patients have been transferred to intensive care units in other hospitals.

NATO will place its headquarters in the Finnish city of Mikkeli, which is approximately 140 km from the border with Russia or 300 km from St. Petersburg

This feels like a massive fuck you to Putin and I’m 100% here for it!

It does seem a little like deliberate taunting. D'you suppose they will also throw dead cows?

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Dutch F-16s on their final flight over the Netherlands before being transferred to Ukraine https://t.me/liveukraine_media/24813

Z-bloggers claim that Russian artillery is keeping all supply routes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Vuhledar under fire control, as reported by TASS. Footage shows strikes on the city's multi-story buildings
Ukraine has not officially confirmed this. Ukrainian media note that the Ukrainian garrison in the city has only one remaining road for supply.

A massive Russian attack in the Kupiansk direction. 50 units of armored equipment. And it failed.
Ukrainian drone pilots destroyed and damaged 40 Russian vehicles, including 13 tanks and 15 IFVs.

🇮🇳 India will not purchase https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-will-not-buy-russias-sanctioned-arctic-lng-2-project-oil-secretary-says-2024-09-27/ liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the sanctioned Russian Arctic LNG 2 plant.
Arctic LNG 2 is under Western sanctions due to Russia's war with Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal reported https://www.wsj.com/finance/the-u-s-is-trying-to-cripple-russias-vast-arctic-lng-project-a5dd38ed that because of these sanctions, LNG production has halted, and the plant is mostly recycling already extracted gas.
▪️Liquefied natural gas is a significant source of funding for Russia's war in Ukraine. Russia aims to increase its revenues from LNG, seeking to boost its share of the global market from 8% to 20%.

There are 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees in Germany, which is almost 18% of the total number of refugees
In 2024, Germany became the most popular country for Ukrainians to flee to, whereas in 2023, it was Poland. Germany and Poland have switched places.

❗️China and Brazil are creating https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2024/09/magyarorszag-reszt-vesz-a-beke-baratai-nevu-csoport-alakulo-ulesen-az-ensz-ben#google_vignette a platform called "Friends of Peace," which they say is an open forum for resolving the "Ukrainian crisis."
Hungary plans to join the platform. According to Hungary's Foreign Minister, 15 countries, including Turkey, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Zambia, and Kenya, are already participants.

🤡Medvedev threatened "small" countries with a Russian nuclear strike, saying that NATO won't help them in time

🇭🇺 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán criticized the statement made by his advisor Balázs Orbán, who suggested that Hungary would have benefited more if it had not resisted the Soviet invasion in 1956.
"My political director recently made an ambiguous statement, which was a mistake, as our society is founded on the 1956 revolution and grew out of it," said Orbán.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Zelensky will conclude his visit to the U.S. without securing permission to use American weapons for strikes deep into Russia, — The Times

⚡️Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate has officially confirmed the liquidation of Russian Armed Forces Colonel Alexei Kolomeitsev resulting from an special operation in Russia's Moscow region.

Yes, agreed.

Thought this statement from Yuval Harari (haven't seen it posted on the thread, so here it is via Anton Gerashchenko) was worth posting - https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1839210562732847613 - noting of course that Yuval Harari is sitting in Jerusalem (where there were sirens again today, my DD is now in Jerusalem) but he is absolutely right - "One of the worst monsters of mankind is returning": historian Yuval Noah Harari has called Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine the most important conflict taking place in the world.