Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Timothy Snyder is fabulous - have you read ‘On Tyranny’?

Proves yet again that four Geneva Conventions, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and the European Convention on Human Rights are not worth the paper they're written on. Utterly useless, just as they were at stopping the Bosnian Genocide and the Rwandan Genocide.

The UN is as effective at keeping world peace as the League of Nations was before it.

https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1839115628621304188

JD Vance gives me the rage!

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Ukraine war latest: US announces new military aid package worth almost $8 billion https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-us-announces-new-military-aid-package-worth-almost-8-billion-for-ukraine/ for Ukraine [confirmed]

⚡️Zelensky meets https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-with-biden-in-washington-presents-victory-plan/ with Biden in Washington, presents 'victory plan.'

⚡️Blinken to hold talks with Chinese counterpart amid worries about China's drone assistance https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-to-hold-talks-with-chinese-counterpart-amid-worries-about-chinas-drone-assistance-to-russia/ to Russia.

⚡️Germany approves additional $447 million for military aid https://kyivindependent.com/germany-approves-additional-447-million-for-military-aid-to-ukraine/ to Ukraine.
The additional financial assistance will allow the procurement of more air defense systems, tanks, drones, ammunition, and spare parts, "effectively strengthening the Ukrainian Armed Forces in defending their country," Bundestag's statement reads.

⚡️UK to provide https://kyivindependent.com/uk-to-provide-ukraine-with-4-additional-as90-self-propelled-artillery-howitzers/ Ukraine with 4 additional AS90 self-propelled artillery howitzers

⚡️Russia building https://kyivindependent.com/russia-building-new-structure-near-kerch-bridge-in-occupied-crimea-navy-says/ unknown structure near Crimean Bridge, Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said on national television on Sept. 26.

⚡️Crimean bridge defenses being bolstered by underwater drone traps https://kyivindependent.com/crimean-bridge-defenses-being-bolstered-by-metal-drone-traps-media-reports/ according to reports.
According to the Crimean Wind Telegram channel, the metal structures have been put in place using barges and a floating crane for the last month.

⚡️ Top Orban aide sparks outrage https://kyivindependent.com/top-orban-aide-sparks-outrage-by-calling-ukraine-resistance-to-russian-invasion-irresponsible/ by calling Ukraine's resistance to Russia's full-scale invasion 'irresponsible.'
Balazs Orban made the comments when discussing Hungary's anti-Soviet uprising in 1956 which was brutally put down by the Red Army.

⚡️Ukraine considers 55,000 citizens as missing persons https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-considers-55-000-citizens-as-missing-persons/
The register includes people who have disappeared due to war, occupation, or natural and man-made disasters.

⚡️Trump says he will meet https://kyivindependent.com/trump-says-he-will-meet-with-zelensky-at-trump-tower-in-new-york-on-sept-27/ with Zelensky at Trump Tower in New York on Sept. 27.

New Skynex video shows Ukraine's cutting-edge drone destroyer in action https://kyivindependent.com/new-skynex-video-shows-ukraines-cutting-edge-drone-destroyer-in-action/
Ukraine's Air Force has released footage showing one of its most advanced weapons in action – the German-supplied Skynex system. .... In short, it's a big, powerful, and highly accurate mobile gun that is very effective at shooting down drones. [One of these days someone's going to make an AI company called Skynet]

⚡️UK introduces sanctions https://kyivindependent.com/uk-introduces-sanctions-against-ships-organizations-involved-in-export-of-russian-lng/ against ships, companies involved in export of Russian LNG

⚡️'Deepfake' caller posing https://kyivindependent.com/deepfake-caller-posing-as-ukraines-ex-foreign-minister-talks-to-us-senator/ as Ukraine's ex-foreign minister talks to US Senator.
U.S. Senator Benjamin Cardin received a Zoom call from an unknown person claiming to be former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, the New York Times (NYT) reported on Sept. 26, citing a letter from the Senate security service and its undisclosed sources.

⚡️White House defends https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-defends-zelenskys-ammunition-plant-visit-says-calls-for-investigation-political-stunt/ Zelensky's ammunition plant visit, calls Republican investigation 'political stunt.'

⚡️US intelligence warns of risks https://kyivindependent.com/us-intelligence-warns-of-risks-in-permitting-ukraines-long-range-strikes-nyt-reports/ in permitting Ukraine's long-range strikes, NYT reports.
U.S. intelligence agencies have cautioned that Russia may respond with increased force, potentially including lethal attacks on the U.S. and its allies, if Ukraine is allowed to use long-range missiles supplied by the U.S., U.K., and France for strikes deep into Russian territory, the New York Times reported.
The news outlet cited a previously unreported assessment that also downplays the strategic impact these long-range missiles might have on the war.

⚡️Kremlin says recent adjustments to Russia's nuclear policy intended as a message to Western nations https://kyivindependent.com/kremlin-says-recent-adjustments-to-russias-nuclear-policy-intended-as-a-message-to-western-nations/ [funny, if long range missiles won't have an impact on the war why is Russia so scared of them?]

⚡️Update: 1 killed, 6 injured in Russian missile attack https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-hits-administrative-building-in-kryvyi-rih/ on police department in Kryvyi Rih.
⚡️Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 8, injure 49 over past day. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-8-injure-49-over-past-day/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪ SEP 27, 2024
■ Engagements & casualties stay high
■ APV & tank losses well above 7-day average
■ Record 7-day equipment, drone & artillery losses
■ Most 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes to date (previous record set a week ago)

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

President Biden Announces New $2.4 Billion Military Aid Package for Ukraine During White House Meeting with Zelenskyy, — Voice of America [this is in contrast to other claims that it's 8 billion]

The U.S. and EU are close to finalizing a plan to provide Ukraine with $50 billion, funded by frozen Russian assets. The extent of U.S. involvement will depend on improvements to the EU's sanctions regime, Bloomberg reports.
According to sources, Washington has informed Brussels that it is ready to contribute $20 billion to the G7 project if the EU adjusts its sanctions policy against Russia. Currently, EU sanctions must be renewed every six months by unanimous decision of member states. The U.S. is seeking more guarantees that the frozen Russian assets will remain locked, proposing a review every 36 months instead.
While the U.S. plans to participate in the project even without EU changes, this could affect the size of its contribution.
Brussels proposed allocating €35 billion ($39 billion) from the EU's budget, but Germany, France, and Italy

U.S. Assures EU of $20 Billion Allocation from $50 Billion Aid Package to Ukraine – Bloomberg
Washington continues to push for a long-term freeze on Russian assets by the EU, which currently requires renewal every six months, to fund the loan repayment.

EU’s Position on Ukraine Unchanged Despite Putin’s Nuclear Threats – BBC Cites EU Representative Peter Stano

Russia Unable to Purchase $5 Billion Worth of Microelectronics Due to Sanctions — Vladyslav Vlasyuk
Vladyslav Vlasyuk, the Ukrainian President's representative on sanctions policy, reported that sanctions have prevented Russia from purchasing $5 billion worth of microelectronics.
He noted that component prices have risen significantly, making purchases more difficult. Russia is now forced to pay two to four times more for the necessary components.

Gazprom Drops Out of Top 100 Largest Companies by Profit After Losing European Market — Forbes
Forbes has published its annual ranking of the largest Russian companies by net profit, and Gazprom, Russia’s largest gas company and last year’s leader, has fallen dramatically. In 2024, Gazprom not only lost its top spot but failed to make it into the top 100.
For the first time in 25 years, Gazprom ended 2023 with a loss of 629 billion rubles, compared to a profit of 1.23 trillion rubles the previous year. An internal company report indicates that gas exports are unlikely to return to previous levels for at least the next decade.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Kamala Harris stated that she supports Ukraine's vision of how the war should end

🇺🇸 The Pentagon considered https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/pentagon-wants-white-phosphorus-shells-ukraine-white-house-says-no-rcna172504 sending white phosphorus munitions to Ukraine, but the White House rejected the idea, according to NBC News.
The Pentagon emphasized that the use of white phosphorus artillery shells would be for illumination and smoke generation, not for attacks against Russian forces.
If the decision to send white phosphorus to Ukraine is made, it is unlikely to be publicly announced.
The Geneva Convention on the Protection of War Victims prohibits the use of phosphorus bombs and other munitions containing this substance near or within populated areas where civilians are present. Russia has repeatedly used such weapons against Ukraine’s civilian population.

🪖 Ukraine's allies are facing a shortage of funds to provide aid in 2025, putting weapon supplies at risk, Bloomberg reports https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-27/ukraine-russia-war-kyiv-s-allies-strapped-for-cash-and-arms-deliveries-at-risk?srnd=homepage-europe&embedded-checkout=true
A significant portion of Ukraine's military support in 2025 is tied to a $50 billion G7 loan backed by frozen Russian assets. However, allies are still negotiating the details of the deal, and the final loan amount could be reduced to €35 billion.
Allies may need to exceed this funding, but the challenge is that Western countries are facing fiscal constraints and could potentially reduce their support for Ukraine.
Bloomberg notes that this crisis is emerging at a dangerous time for Ukraine and could force Kyiv to negotiate from a position of weakness. Meanwhile, the Russian economy may not face serious pressure until 2026.

🇺🇳 The UN is running out https://www.barrons.com/news/un-says-lacks-funds-to-help-ukraine-this-winter-c5d5a532?refsec=topics_afp-news of funds to help Ukrainians this winter
Currently, the UN Refugee Agency has only 47% of the funds needed to assist millions of Ukrainians displaced or affected by the war. At this time last year, the agency had 70% of the required funding.

🤡 The ruling party of Georgia, "Georgian Dream," has produced campaign banners as part of their election campaign, showing images of destruction caused by Russia in Ukraine alongside contrasting photos of "normal life" in Georgia
The captions on the banners urge voters to "choose peace" and "say no to war."

The film "Russians at War" will not be shown at a film festival in Switzerland
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine expressed gratitude for this decision and urged the organizers to completely remove the film from the documentary competition.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine's 72nd Brigade Denies Withdrawal from Vuhledar: "Despite heavy assaults and difficult conditions, we are still here."

Ukrainian cyber operations cripple Russian infrastructure targets in massive cyber attack.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39662

In a letter to US President Biden, hundreds of prominent political, military and cultural figures call for the lifting of all restrictions on Ukraine as well as dramatically increased military support.
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/39623

The end of Putin's regime is probably coming much sooner than you think.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress

“One of these days someone's going to make an AI company called Skynet..”

Not quite AI but..

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skynet_(satellite)

gah

From UNITED24 Highlights:

While the U.S. plans to participate in the project even without EU changes, this could affect the size of its contribution.
Brussels proposed allocating €35 billion ($39 billion) from the EU's budget, but Germany, France, and Italy opposed the plan*

Trump says he will meet kyivindependent.com/trump-says-he-will-meet-with-zelensky-at-trump-tower-in-new-york-on-sept-27/ with Zelensky at Trump Tower in New York on Sept. 27.

Thanks, Ducks. I have the heebie-jeebies about it being at a place of TFG's choosing, rather a neutral place. I hope the security folks are completely on top of this

I had exactly the same worry. Which is worrying in itself.

Not confirmed that this message Trump posted on Truth Social really did come from Zelensky:

"Days ago, we requested a meeting with you, and I really want to hear your thoughts directly, and firsthand. You know I always speak with great respect about everything connected to you, and that's how it should be. I believe it's important for us to have a personal contact and to understand each other 100%."

I am reminded of Miss Elizabeth Bennet's handling of Mr Collins when she managed "to unite civility and truth in a few short sentences".

It is, isn't it.

Shall keep everything crossed for everyone coming away safe.

I suspect it did, it's exactly the right level of flattery to engage Trump and that's no easy task!

This is one of the massively impressive things about Zelenskyy, he was not only able to step up as a leader of his own country in war, as a Commander in Chief, he also seems to have superb diplomacy skills. I actually can't remember or think of another example of a world leader who was able to do both when put to the test. Combined with the backstory of being a comedian and how all that panned out it's just amazing.

He seems to be able to rise above the temptation to dig at people like Trump but to see clearly exactly how to handle him without collusion.

I have become a big fan of his, can you tell? 😂

Posted this on the wrong thread:

Well it looks like the Zelensky-Trump meeting is now well over. As long as no one's tea – or underpants – were poisoned, that's that safely out of the way.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Germany, France, and the United States announced several immediate and more long-term aid packages for Ukraine on September 25 and 26.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is reportedly struggling to coordinate combat tasks with the Russian military despite having control over the counterterrorism operation against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued assaults in Kursk Oblast but neither side made further advances in the area.
• Russian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City and Chasiv Yar and east and southeast of Pokrovsk.
• Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian military command for holding joint military exercises with Laos, arguing that such exercises demonstrate that Russia is not learning from its battlefield experience in Ukraine.

https://x.com/madrid_mike/status/1839680698032201959 Trump’s press statement after meeting Zelenskyy. The man is an actual moron.

What the fuck is that? I feel sick for Zelensky having to stand there and endure that. I can't believe this man might become president again, I just can't get my head around it

Zelensky’s face and body language says it all. Trump is an absolute buffoon.

I saw a Tweet which I now can’t find that basically said Zelenskyy has the patience of a saint putting up with 2.5years of war and then listening to Trump’s bullshit 😂

In a parallel universe inside my head Zelenskyy swerves suddenly to the side about half way through that utter bullshit, knocks Trump's block off with a single blow, brushes his hands together and strides off to the tumultuous applause of nearly the whole planet. 👊💥🔥

Yes! Zelensky is doing the same facial expressions as Dr Deborah Birx when TFG was standing in front of her blithering about injecting bleach.

bleach disinfectant

Wouldn't want to be accused of spreading fake news...

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is reportedly struggling to coordinate combat tasks with the Russian military despite having control over the counterterrorism operation against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.

Yours truly predicted this. 😀

It's worth going to the ISW website and reading the full text of this item. Here's how it concludes:

The Kremlin and the Russian military command have struggled to establish a cohesive and effective command and control (C2) structure during the response to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast, and it remains unclear what responsibilities fall under the purview of the FSB's counterterrorism operation or the MoD's Coordination Council.[11] ISW has previously assessed that overlapping tasks and poor C2 structures will likely continue to generate friction between the FSB and the Russian MoD.[12]

The Russian army is not going to take orders from the FSB in any meaningful sense, and there's no common headquarters or means for the FSB to communicate with army units directly. So this never had a chance to work.

The FSB has a small number of Spetsnaz troops that report directly to them that they have been trying to employ against the UAF, but that's not what they're trained for. Special Forces units are lightly armed and can't stand up to combined arms forces like infantry or armor. It's foolish for them to try, as they well know. I think this is a case of "if you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail".