Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights [shorter than usual due to circumstances]

⚡️Putin suggests changes https://kyivindependent.com/putin-suggests-number-of-changes-to-russias-nuclear-doctrine/ to Russia's nuclear doctrine
"An aggression by a non-nuclear state with the participation of a nuclear state is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on Russia," Putin said during a Security Council meeting.

⚡️US pledges nearly $8 billion in military aid for Ukraine, Zelensky says. https://kyivindependent.com/us-pledges-nearly-8-billion-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-zelensky-says/
The U.S. announced a military aid package for Ukraine worth $7.9 billion, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sept. 26.

White House announces $375 million https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-announces-375-million-in-military-assistance-to-ukraine/ in military assistance to Ukraine

⚡️Russia has destroyed https://kyivindependent.com/russia-destroys-all-thermal-power-plants-nearly-all-hydroelectric-capacity-in-ukraine-ahead-of-winter-zelensky-says/ all thermal power plants, nearly all hydroelectric capacity in Ukraine ahead of winter, said on Sept. 25 during his speech at the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

⚡️House Speaker calls on Zelensky to fire ambassador https://kyivindependent.com/house-speaker-calls-on-zelensky-to-fire-ambassador-to-us-fox-news-reports/ to US, Fox News reports
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson has urged President Volodymyr Zelensky to fire Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, for alleged "election interference" related to Zelensky's visit to a Pennsylvania ammunition plant, Fox News reported on Sept. 25.
Johnson alleges that Markarova arranged a taxpayer-funded trip to a battleground state that "purposely excluded" Republicans ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

Russian attacks against Ukraine killed eight people and injured at least 44 others over the past day, regional authorities said on Sept. 26.
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-at-least-8-injure-44-over-past-day/

⚡️Russia attacks Kramatorsk city center, killing 2, injuring 12, including children https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-kramatorsk-city-center-killing-2-injuring-12/
⚡️3 Red Cross representatives injured https://kyivindependent.com/3-red-cross-employees-injured-in-russian-attack-on-kramatorsk/ in Russian attack on Kramatorsk.

The equipment losses are so enormous, week after week after week. How is this actually physically happening? (genuine question)

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson ■ 8th highest casualties & engagements above 7-day avg
■ Most equipment & vehicle losses this year so far & air defence systems record for 2024 matched
■ Record 7-day artillery & drones losses & special equipm. record matched

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🤦Russia Could Consider the Use of Nuclear Weapons After Reliable Data on a Mass Launch of Missiles and UAVs Crossing Its Border — Putin

Next Month, I Will Convene a “Ramstein” Meeting in Germany – U.S. President Joe Biden

Russians Install Starlink on Shahed-136 UAV for Long-Range Reconnaissance – Defense Express
According to Defense Express, a Shahed-136 drone equipped with a Starlink terminal was shot down by Ukrainian defenders on the night of September 25. This new setup could allow the UAV to be converted into a long-range reconnaissance tool.
Experts note that the enemy had previously experimented with 4G modems using Ukrainian SIM cards, so it was only a matter of time before Starlink was utilized.
"With Starlink, the drone can receive feedback, transmit information, and change its flight path from any distance, effectively transforming the Shahed into a reconnaissance tool," the article explains.
This setup could allow the drone to relay information about Ukrainian air defense positions or, if equipped with cameras, capture and transmit images. These communications might occur in a way that is difficult to detect.
Additionally, with Starlink and a camera, the Shahed could be used to scout and attack even moving targets.
Experts suggest the Shahed was chosen for these purposes due to its long flight range of about 2,000 km and the significant internal space available for modifications. This innovation may also be linked to the "creativity" of Alabuga, where the drones are assembled.

Germany will provide €70 million to help strengthen Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The funds will be used to supply Ukrainian cities and communities with small thermal power plants, boilers, generators, and solar panels.

Saab Plans to Establish Arms Production in Ukraine Amid Growing Demand — Reuters
▫️ “We have to help Ukraine develop its sovereign potential and capabilities, therefore we need to establish a partnership with Ukrainian industry within Ukraine, as well as with Ukrainian industry that has relocated outside of Ukraine,” said Saab CEO Mikael Johansson.
▫️ Johansson also noted that Saab is in talks with two or three companies about “how to set up local production,” but the deal has not yet been finalized.

For Strikes on Zaporizhzhia, the Occupiers May Have Used the Rare FAB-500T, Previously Seen in Attacks on Kharkiv — Defense Express

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️ Ukraine will receive https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/26/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-u-s-support-for-ukraine/ long-range Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) cruise bombs from the U.S.
These bombs have a range of up to 150 km and can weigh up to 500 kg. @MissConductUS

⚡️🇺🇸 The United States has allocated a new military aid package worth $7.9 billion to Ukraine.
This package includes an additional Patriot air defense battery, other air defense systems and interceptors, drones, long-range missiles, air-to-ground munitions, and funds to strengthen Ukraine’s defense industrial base.
The U.S. will also expand programs for training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s. Additionally, new sanctions have been imposed on Russia.

⚠️Russia has secretly launched the production of strike drones in China, Reuters reports
The "Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant 'Kupol'" developed the latest "Harpy-3" UAV and has already tested it in China with local specialists. This drone can cover around 2,000 km with a payload of 50 kg. Additionally, within the next eight months, Russia plans to start the production of another joint development with China—a strike drone called REM 1 with a payload capacity of up to 400 kg, which will be comparable to the American Reaper drone.
During the summer, Russia already received at least seven drones from the Chinese base and launched large-scale production. The factory in China covers an area of 80 hectares and will be able to produce 800 UAVs per year.

🇺🇸 The U.S. has allocated a new aid package to Ukraine worth $375 million. The package includes:
🔴 Ammunition for HIMARS;
🔴 155mm and 105mm artillery shells;
🔴 TOW missiles;
🔴 Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems;
🔴 M1117 armored personnel carriers;
🔴 MRAP armored vehicles;
🔴 Patrol boats and more.

American JPMorgan Chase bank and British HSBC bank, processed payments for companies in Africa that were controlled by the now-deceased founder of the Wagner Group , Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to the Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/4e6062da-61b6-4f2e-8995-52793225f77e
According to these documents, in 2017, the Sudanese mining company Meroe Gold, which acted as a front for the Wagner Group, sent a payment from a local bank account through JPMorgan Chase, acting as an intermediary bank in New York, to a Chinese supplier of industrial equipment.
Another record from the same year shows that Meroe Gold transferred payment to a Chinese company for diesel generators and spare parts via Hang Seng Bank, part of the HSBC group.
There is no evidence to suggest that the banks were aware they were facilitating transactions for Wagner Group front companies.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Despite Trump's wild claims of $300 billion in US aid to Ukraine, the total at present is $58.5 billion, while Europe's total now surpasses $209 billion.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39565

Set to go live in a few days, the Ukrainian government readies to launch it's "E-resident" system, which allows foreigners to open accounts, set up businesses and conduct business in Ukraine.
"E-resident" also grants a special status to foreign citizens in Ukraine, providing access to information and consulting services, simplifying the process of receiving administrative services, and concluding civil-law agreements.

"Ukraine is gone"
Before again calling for Ukraine to appease Putin, Trump runs through a series of verbatim Kremlin talking points, initially disparaging President Zelensky before moving on to the crown jewel of Russian disinformation narratives, namely that Ukraine doesn't exist.

❗️ Ukraine will receive https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/26/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-u-s-support-for-ukraine/ long-range Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) cruise bombs from the U.S.
These bombs have a range of up to 150 km and can weigh up to 500 kg.

This might sound like a really daft question but surely in terms of the size of Russia 150km isn't very far - for context Moscow is 841.80km from the border with Ukraine according to Google!

And linked to that I see the analysis notes that missing from Biden's announcement was the explicit agreement that they can use American weaponry to hit Russia proper.

Agreed, but if the US really is giving 8 billion to Ukraine, that's going to mean that the brigades, which are very short of equipment in many cases, are going to be struggling less.

Biden's swan song, perhaps.

I noticed it a while back, especially if you compare recent appearances to his rallies from 2016. There's quite a few articles from August where experts say Trump's speech patterns hint at potential dementia.

However, even if he is ill, there's very little the Republican party can do about it at this stage. I can't see Vance winning over enough floating voters to make a difference and he's managed to alienate quite a lot of moderate GOP supporters with his views on abortion and the Haitian cat-eating lie.

My guess is that they will keep quiet and if Trump wins, keep him on as a figurehead for as long as possible.

But it's a huge amount of support, and thank you to the US for it (assuming it's confirmed)

It might explain why Ukraine is ramping their own weapons production. The USA cannot tell them what to do with homegrown missiles.

I'm sure that's it, @TheABC and I suspect somehow that Biden is quite happy for that to happen.

@Igotjelly

”This might sound like a really daft question but surely in terms of the size of Russia 150km isn't very far - for context Moscow is 841.80km from the border with Ukraine according to Google!”

True…having flown east-west between Europe and Japan more than a few times I can attest to the fact that Russia is chuffing enormous and even when you get to Moscow you find there’s a heck of a lot of Russia to the east, though most of it is covered in trees …anyhow….

I suspect generally Ukraine aircraft aircraft won’t dropping JSOW right at the Ukraine/Russian border so the weapon probably won’t even be able to hit targets 150 km inside Russian lines…Which will be one reason why the US are relatively relaxed about allowing the supply and use of JSOW….

In more positive news there have been updates on Twitter about the Ukrainian POW that we spoke about previously (the lad that was unable to speak etc.) It took 4 days for his recognition to come back and for the emotional gates to open. His recovery has since been swift in its progress and may it continue to be.

https://x.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1839264567056113822

Thanks for that Jelly, that's good to hear

Oh thank you @Igotjelly, that is good to hear though one suspects he'll ltake years to recover.

Absolutely, if ever fully. But I didn't think he'd be in a position to give any sort of interview etc. as soon as 4 days in. The power of a mother's love 💙

Yes. Yes, the love of a family around you is incredibly powerful.

Ukraine will receive https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/26/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-u-s-support-for-ukraine/ long-range Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) cruise bombs from the U.S.
These bombs have a range of up to 150 km and can weigh up to 500 kg.

The provision of JSOW was widely anticipated. By the way, it's misleading to call them "cruise" bombs, as they have no propulsion system. They are glide bombs, and the range is determined by the altitude from which they are dropped.

As notimagain points out, they are unlikely to be used on targets deep inside Russia. On the good side, they come in a cluster munitions variant (JSOW-A) as well as a unitary warhead (JSOW C). I suspect the UAF will employ a lot of cluster munitions variant against Russian targets in the east.

What do you make @MissConductUS of the lack of explicit consent to strike Russian territory? I’ve seen analysis that says we might not get an announcement and that it might just happen but that doesn’t feel to me like Biden’s style?

I think that Biden has checked out and his advisors are making all of the consequential decisions at this point, and they want to avoid taking any risks in his last few months in office.

It's been weeks since I've posted any Bradley love, so I'll offer this from today's WSJ. 😁

Meet Bradley, the U.S. Army Veteran Ukrainian Soldiers Love - The 40-year-old troop carrier and other infantry-fighting vehicles have been surprise stars of Ukraine’s campaign

One soldier, who credits his Brad with saving his life, got a drawing of it tattooed on his arm.

Has everyone seen this in Transnistria? Fucking awesome.

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1839232165734920361

Though on balance the soldier is probably still glad he's there and not fertilising a field in Ukraine, even if he has just been humiliated on the internet.

That soldier looked about fifteen.

https://x.com/U24_gov_ua/status/1838639804373770721

Timothy Snyder setting the Ukraine war into its historical context. Essentially a World War where only one country is fighting.

So true. I wish more people in the general public could understand that.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-25-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to threaten the possibility of a nuclear confrontation between Russia and the West in order to exert further control over Western decision-making and discourage the West from allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to strike military objects in Russia.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia is preparing for potential strikes against Ukraine’s three remaining operational nuclear power plants ahead of the coming winter, highlighting the Kremlin's unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations and continued commitment to the destruction of the Ukrainian state and its people.
• A Russian company is reportedly collaborating with entities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to develop an attack drone for Russia's war in Ukraine.
• Russia continues to deepen its relationship with Iran's Axis of Resistance, this time reportedly via Iran-brokered talks facilitating Russian missile transfers to Yemen's Houthi rebels.
• Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces continued to regain positions in Vovchansk.
• Russian forces advanced northwest of Kreminna, in Toretsk, and southeast of Pokrovsk.
• Russian forces reportedly advanced within and around Vuhledar (southwest of Donetsk City) amid continued offensive efforts to seize the settlement.
• Veterans of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to commit crimes upon returning to Russia.