Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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@blueshoes sorry to steal into your area but I just had to post these ISW pics

Before and after Oktyabrski Ammunition Depot and Tikhoretsk Ammunition Depot

Toropets Ammunition Depot before. the After pic is just astonishing, but it's too big to upload.

There's some bad news about the budget resolution. A provision to carry over unspent aid to Ukraine was omitted. The good news is that they're going to commit as much as possible of it before the end of the month and try to find a way to reauthorize the rest before the end of the term.

US expected to announce billions in Ukraine aid after Congress fails to include extension in stopgap government funding bill

I'm not clear on what needs to happen to commit it. If it's just paperwork from the Pentagon, that can be done before the end of the month.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Russia establishes secret attack drone programme https://kyivindependent.com/russia-establishes-secret-attack-drone-programme-in-china-reuters-reports/ in China, Reuters reports.
Russia has reportedly flight-tested a new drone called the Garpiya-3 (G3) in China with the help of local specialists.

⚡️Ukraine regains control https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-regains-control-of-vovchansk/ of Vovchansk aggregate plant, military intelligence says.
"The fighters of HUR carried out a systematic sweep of the plant's buildings, constantly engaging in contact battles with the enemy in densely built-up conditions. In some cases, Ukrainian special forces engaged in hand-to-hand combat with the enemy," the agency said.

⚡️ Russian troops constantly storming Vuhledar https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-constantly-storming-vuhledar-in-donetsk-oblast-situation-steadily-tense-ukraines-military-says/ in Donetsk Oblast, situation 'steadily tense,' Ukraine's military says.

⚡️No Russian troops on Vuhledar https://kyivindependent.com/no-russian-troops-on-vuhledar-outskirts-governor-claims/ outskirts, governor claims.

What the fall of Vuhledar https://kyivindependent.com/what-the-fall-of-vuhledar-would-mean-for-russias-war-in-ukraine/ would mean for Russia's war in Ukraine
Located 50 kilometers south of Pokrovsk, the strategic roadway junction, Vuhledar is often called a "fortress" among the military. The town is now at the epicenter of a Russian months-long push.
The loss of Vuhledar would pose a threat to the southern flank of Pokrovsk, another city Ukraine is struggling to hold amid continuous Russian assaults.

⚡️Russia attacks Kharkiv's densely populated districts, https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-kharkivs-densely-populated-districts-killing-3-injuring-24/ killing 3, injuring 28.

⚡️Iran mediating https://kyivindependent.com/iran/ secret talks to send Russian anti-ship missiles to Yemen's Houthis, Reuters reports on Sept. 24, citing seven unnamed sources..
Iran is brokering secret negotiations between Russia and Yemen's Houthis to transfer Yakhont supersonic anti-ship missiles to them.

⚡️Small percentage of artillery shells from Czech-led initiative malfunction. https://kyivindependent.com/small-percentage-of-artillery-shells-from-czech-led-initiative-malfunction/
Approximately 0.05% of nearly 35,000 artillery shells had an issue, with five out of every 10,000 breaking prematurely.

⚡️Russia is preparing to target three Ukrainian nuclear power plants Zelensky told the U.N. Security Council in New York on Sept. 24. ... Zelensky did not specify which stations are under threat, but said Kyiv had evidence and "proof" of Russia's plans. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-preparing-to-attack-3-ukraines-nuclear-plants-zelensky-says/

Russia continues construction of naval base in occupied Abkhazia, Ukraine hints it will be legitimate target https://kyivindependent.com/russia-continues-construction-of-a-naval-base-in-occupied-abkhazia-ukraine-hinted-it-will-be-a-legitimate-target/
Since then, Russia only sped up the construction of the base, which has the potential to drag the small South Caucasian country into a wider conflict.

⚡️Despite hardships, head of Kryvyi Rih steel plant ArcelorMittal determined https://kyivindependent.com/despite-hardships-head-of-kryvyi-rih-steel-plant-arcelormittal-determined-to-keep-operations-running/ to keep operations running.

From Ukraine to a galaxy far away: How Ukrainian AI-voice company Respeecher became the go-to for Hollywood https://kyivindependent.com/from-ukraine-to-a-galaxy-far-far-away-how-ukrainian-ai-voice-company-respeecher-became-the-go-to-for-hollywood/
Alex Serdiuk, CEO of Kyiv-based AI voice company Respeecher, knew the company was onto a winner when no one noticed that the voice of veteran Star Wars actor Mark Hamill had been altered to sound younger in Disney’s hit show The Mandalorian. [this is controversial]

⚡️Trump vows to 'get America out' of Ukraine war, blames Biden for conflict. https://kyivindependent.com/trump-vows-to-get-america-out-of-ukraine-war-blames-biden-for-conflict/

⚡️No Zelensky-Trump meeting https://kyivindependent.com/no-zelensky-trump-meetings-scheduled-in-us-this-week-ap-reports/ scheduled in US this week, AP reports.

⚡️ Update: Number of people injured in Russian attack https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-kharkivs-densely-populated-districts-killing-3-injuring-24/ on Kharkiv rises to 34.

Russian attacks against Ukraine killed at least 11 people and injured 69 others over the past day, regional authorities said on Sept. 25.
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-injure-over-past-day/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson
■ Engagements up between days & close to 1.3k in casualties
■ Record equipment & drone losses for the last 7 days
■ 2nd highest single-day drone losses & double-digit tank losses seven days in a row
■ Improved strike ratio

Vuhledar now

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Biden administration is developing a plan to extend the authority to send $5.9 billion worth of U.S. weapons and equipment to Ukraine as the current funding is set to run out at the end of the month, Politico reports. [Looks like they are trying to get it sorted, @MissConductUS, but no details as to how publically]

EU to Support Ukraine Regardless of U.S. Policy Shifts
EU High Representative Josep Borrell reaffirmed the European Union’s commitment to supporting Ukraine, regardless of potential changes in U.S. policy, particularly in the event of Donald Trump’s election as president.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to discuss key issues, including bolstering Ukraine’s air defense capabilities and accelerating efforts for Ukraine’s invitation to NATO.

President Zelenskyy Meets with Turkish Leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

President Zelenskyy Meets with Italian Prime Minister Meloni in New York

🇫🇮🇺🇦 President Zelenskyy Meets with Finnish President Alexander Stubb

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

A draft three-year budget obtained by Bloomberg News reveals the Russian government’s intention to increase defense spending to 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion) in 2025, up from 10.4 trillion rubles planned for this year, amounting to 6.2% of gross domestic product (GDP). According to Bloomberg’s calculations, military spending is expected to decrease slightly, reaching 5.6% of GDP in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Some ammunition from the Czech initiative and the U.S. has been prematurely detonating, according to Handelsblatt
These explosions have caused injuries to soldiers and damaged artillery systems. The issue is believed to be related to detonators manufactured during World War II.
Out of a shipment of 35,000 artillery shells, the failure rate was 0.05%. Of 10,000 rounds fired, five detonated prematurely.

🇳🇿 New Zealand has imposed new sanctions on five individuals and six companies from Russia and Belarus
Among those targeted are individuals and entities supporting Russia's full-scale invasion, those involved in the occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and those linked to Russia's military-industrial complex.
▪️Since March 2022, New Zealand has sanctioned more than 1,700 individuals and companies, as well as implemented a range of trade restrictions against Russia.

🇸🇰An envelope containing a bullet was sent to Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, according to the Plus 7 dní portal.

🇩🇪A German MP from the far-right AfD party, Jörg Dornau, is reportedly using https://reform.news/onion-is-tasty-political-prisoners-work-on-an-onion-plantation-owned-by-afd-mp-jorg-dornau the labor of political prisoners at his Belarusian enterprise
This was revealed by a man who was detained in February 2024 for 15 days for liking a social media post. According to him, a contract was signed between the Belarusian Offenders Isolation Center and the MP's enterprise. As a result, political prisoners are paid €5 per day, and their work is personally overseen by Dornau.

🇬🇧 UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy directly accused Putin of running a "mafia state" and compared him to a slave owner during a fiery speech at the UN Security Council.
"Your invasion is in your own interest. Only yours. To turn your mafia state into a mafia empire. An empire built on corruption," the minister said.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Over 15 million Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian aid due to Russia's full-scale invasion — UN Secretary-General António Guterres
According to him, 6.2 million Ukrainian citizens have received such assistance this year.

Meet Oleksandr Syrsky, General at War With the Country Where He Was Born
Born into a military family in a rural Russian village, few would have predicted that Oleksandr Syrsky would one day be leading a war against his home country.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39438

Russia's systemic torture of Ukrainian civilians in occupied areas and POW's continues — UN
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39540

War & Business: Insights from Ukraine’s Top CEOs
Have you ever wondered how Ukraine’s top CEOs navigate the chaos of war? Witness firsthand as they reveal their strategies for survival and success in Ukraine that help keep the economy moving forward

A massive fire is raging in Moscow this morning.
An auto parts warehouse is on fire, and a gas station is located nearby. The fire has spread across an area of 600 m². The sky over the city is covered with thick black smoke.
The cause of the fire is unknown.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-reserves-right-use-nuclear-weapons-if-attacked-2024-09-25/

A hint at the new doctrine along with some of the usual dick waving. 👋 👋 Yes Vlad we know, you have nukes 🥱

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1838804346428854657/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1838804346428854657&currentTweetUser=jurgen_nauditt

Trump on Ukraine- The man is a literal creature 🤢

Gosh, that post seems to have been deleted already. By the writer or by Musk and jhis lackeys, d'you suppose?

Oh it might be the link that isn’t working. https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1838804346428854657 I never know with Twitter which link to use! Sorry.

What was the gist of it?

That the US is giving too much money, essentially Zelenskyy is a grifter and that the EU aren’t paying enough. Oh and that the Russians beat Hitler and Napoleon so will win this time…… essentially just being a big fuckin arsewipe!

Thank you, Standard nonsensical Trump utterings then……

Thanks; the new link worked.

He's a complete crothound.

DH and I have just finished watching the 3 part doc on Zelenskyy.
We're both in awe, frankly.
The idea that anyone doesn't admire the man is incomprehensible. Makes my opinion of Trump even lower, which is quite a feat because it was already as low as it gets.
Ukraine was - and indeed all of us are - so lucky that he just happened to be in charge. It's hard to imagine anyone doing a better and more sincere job. Honestly he's up there with Mandela.

I felt exactly the same.

I suspect the big thing with Trump is jealousy.

@Igotjelly Yes I'm in no doubt that both Trump and Putin are as jealous as fuck of Zelenskyy. He's everything they're not and he commands all the love and respect that they can't.
Even more than Trump I think Putin must be absolutely eaten up with jealousy and hatred of him.

I agree @heldinadream

I have images of Putin sitting at his big table hate-scrolling Zelenskyy’s social media like you would your ex’s new girlfriend’s

In other news Mike Johnson has demanded that Ukraine immediately fire Ukraine’s US ambassador. https://x.com/KyivPost/status/1839022466443657453

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress at your post from earlier today, steal away 😂The before and after pictures of the destruction of the ammo depots were very satisfying.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Vuhledar amid what appears to be an intensified offensive push near the settlement, but the capture of Vuhledar is unlikely to afford Russian forces any particular operational edge for further offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear ammunition depots demonstrate the extent to which Russian military logistics still benefit from Western-provided sanctuary that secures Russia’s rear.
• Russia continues to expand and leverage its bilateral relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in order to support its war effort in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has failed to appease the Russian ultranationalist milblogger community by downplaying the Russian military command’s responsibility for its insistence on misusing technical specialists in infantry-led frontal assaults in eastern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced west of the Kursk Oblast salient.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced within Vovchansk and in eastern Toretsk.
• Russian opposition outlet Meduza, citing its own conversations with various unspecified Russian officials close to the Russian Presidential Administration, an interlocutor in the federal government, and regional officials, reported on September 24 that mobilization is a very sensitive topic among Kremlin officials.

He's miffed that no Republicans were included in the tour and photo opportunity at the munitions plant in Scranton. He has a bit of a point about the politics. Zelensky missed a chance to big up some of the Republicans who support more aid to Ukraine (like Johnson finally did).

It did feel like a bit of an own goal, easy way to earn or lose political points with both parties.

https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1839056325860573640 More from Trump. Essentially Ukraine is lost and should capitulate.

Trump has started to sound like a record on a hand-cranked gramaphone: not the saying the same things all the time, but the cadence of his speeches. It's more and more noticable, the way he sort of droops at the end of each phrase. I can't accurately describe it, but it doesn't sound at all like the speech of a thinking human being.