Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Particularly when you look at how joyous he was before the war.

I wonder what the implications are for Russia that the National Welfare Fund is running low. Putin started to dip into it heavily after the first weeks of the war. I wonder just how far the Central Bank has used it and what the consequences will be if it is used up.

Also wonder how significant (or not) this new cross border incursion is.

Russian milblogger analyses of Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to suggest that the Kremlin perceives Western commitment to Ukraine as feeble.

Weren't they fighting all of NATO already?

Thank you for sharing!

Here's some news about the continuing resolution in the House. It would include a provision to allow unspent funds for military aid to Ukraine to carry over into the new fiscal year, which starts in October.

House to take up new funding bill as some Republicans fear a 'galactically stupid' shutdown - Donald Trump pressured Republicans to pass a citizenship voting bill or shut down the government. This week, Speaker Mike Johnson will try to move forward without it.

Without the bit that Trump wanted, I wouldn't anticipate any serious opposition from either party. No one wants a shutdown this close to an election, and the provision carrying over the already approved aid to Ukraine also seems uncontroversial.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress

Also wonder how significant (or not) this new cross border incursion is.

This one?

Ukrainian forces break through another section of Russian border, 95th Brigade claims

Given that no location or time is given for the breakthrough, it's hard to assess. If I had to guess, I'd say that it's doubtful that the AFU has the reserves to make another push the size of the Kursk incursion and that this is intended to keep Russia on the back foot and force them to divert resources from elsewhere.

It's still a bit mind-boggling that it took the Russians six weeks to mount any kind of counterattack in Kursk.

@MissConductUS good news on the House funding bill. Fingers crossed it gets passed without a hitch.

@notimagain has commented in the past about the effects electronic warfare, particularly GPS/Sat Nav spoofing, can have on civilian aviation. According to the WSJ, the problem is growing.

Electronic Warfare Spooks Airlines, Pilots and Air-Safety Officials - Hundreds of daily flights around the world are running into GPS spoofing, a hazard that poses new risks for pilots and passengers

It's becoming a problem in areas other than the Russia/Ukraine war zone.

Thanks for that..

Generally and especially on slightly older aircraft it’s more a bit of a PITA than a genuine navigation/getting lost problem..as the article says you can fall back on older techniques/systems to get to destination…however losing the guaranteed accuracy you get with GPS working as advertised can prohibit you from using certain routes over the Atlantic and flying certain arrival procedures when you get to destination.

OTOH some newer aircraft are much more GPS dependent and with those spoofing can start creating some real operational difficulties (such as the false terrain warnings).

OTOH some newer aircraft are much more GPS dependent and with those spoofing can start creating some real operational difficulties (such as the false terrain warnings).

And the time signals inherent in GPS resetting the onboard clocks incorrectly. I didn't see that one coming, but it makes sense. GPS providing position data is dependent on extremely accurate time signals.

Civilian applications of GPS – Timing

All sorts of civilian systems now rely on these time signals for synchronization. Until I found this article, I didn't realize that the US Space Force had a website.

And the time signals inherent in GPS resetting the onboard clocks incorrectly.

Yep, even on 90’s era type I last flew the captain’s instrument panel clock (and the time feed various computers) was slaved to GPS, though Boeing in their wisdom gave the co-pilot a old fashioned self contained none GPS clock to play with..

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in the United States on September 23 and reiterated Ukraine's need for timely and uninterrupted US military assistance.
• The Kremlin continues to publicly signal its disinterest in any peace settlement short of total capitulation of the Ukrainian government and destruction of the Ukrainian state.
• Russian forces conducted glide bomb strikes against Zaporizhzhia City for the first time overnight on September 22 to 23.
• A high-ranking Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) commander reportedly recently committed suicide due to conflicts within his unit's leadership.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Hlyboke, Kupyansk, and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast.
• The Russian government informally supported a bill on September 23 that would allow Russian authorities to fine individuals who promote “child-free propaganda,” likely as part of an ongoing Kremlin effort to address Russia’s demographic problem.

https://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/country-reports/ahrc5454-situation-human-rights-russian-federation-report-special

UN is concerned about the human rights situation in Russia.

"The present report is the first to be submitted by the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Russian Federation, pursuant to Human Rights Council resolution 51/25. In the report, the Special Rapporteur documents the increasingly repressive crackdown on the peaceful exercise of human rights, especially since the beginning of the full-scale armed attack of the Russian Federation on Ukraine in February 2022. The report contains an assessment of how recent legislation has severely restricted human rights protections guaranteed by international human rights standards and law and have led to the forced shut down of independent civic space, and recommendations addressed to the Government of the Russian Federation and the international community."

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia surveilling https://kyivindependent.com/russia-takes-photos-of-ukrainian-nuclear-facilities-with-chinese-satellites-for-possible-attacks-zelensky-says/ Ukrainian nuclear facilities with Chinese satellites for possible future strikes, Zelensky says.
"The recent information is that Russia has been using Chinese satellites and taking photos of the details of the objects on nuclear facilities. And in our experience, if Russia takes photos of certain objects, then there is a threat of strikes against the nuclear objects," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

⚡️Ukraine hits over 200 military targets https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-1st-country-in-world-to-introduce-drone-swarm-technology-in-war-with-russia-umerov-says/ in Russia using drones within a year, Umerov says.

Control of US House, Senate is up for grabs. What could down-ballot elections https://kyivindependent.com/control-for-the-u-s-house-and-senate-are-up-for-grabs-what-could-down-ballot-races-mean-for-ukraine/ mean for Ukraine support?
The entire U.S. House and some members of the Senate are up for reelection in November — including some of Ukraine’s staunchest backers in Congress, which could have an impact on future support for Kyiv in its fight against Russia.

⚡️ Russia to maintain record high https://kyivindependent.com/russia-to-maintain-record-high-defense-spending-in-2025-bloomberg-reports/ defense spending in 2025, Bloomberg reports.
NATO countries have set a goal to spend 2 percent of the country’s GDP on defense in 2024. Russia is spending around 6 percent.

⚡️Telegram to disclose https://kyivindependent.com/telegram-to-disclose-to-authorities-phone-numbers-ip-addresses-of-those-who-violate-messengers-rules/ to authorities phone numbers, IP addresses of those who violate messenger's rules.
Personal information will be provided to the authorities by "valid legal requests," Telegram CEO Pavel Durov said on Sept. 23.

⚡️Scholz meets Zelensky, https://kyivindependent.com/scholz-meets-zelensky-says-germany-will-not-let-kyiv-use-its-weapons-on-russian-soil/ says Germany will not let Kyiv use its weapons on Russian soil.

⚡️Zelensky meets bipartisan US congressional delegation, urges continued support and outlines Ukraine’s victory plan. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-us-congressional-delegation-urges-continued-support-and-outlines-ukraines-victory-plan/

⚡️Denmark contributes $19.5 million https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-contributes-19-5-million-to-restore-ukraines-energy-system/ to restore Ukraine's energy system.

Japan scrambled fighter jets after a Russian Il-38 plane entered Japanese airspace on Sept. 23. Japan used flares after the Russian plane ignored earlier warnings, Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara said. https://kyivindependent.com/japan-warns-off-russian-military-plane-uses-flares-for-first-time/

⚡️Around 60% of foreign parts in Russian weapons come https://kyivindependent.com/china/ via China, Ukraine says.

⚡️Iranian president says his country doesn't support Moscow https://kyivindependent.com/iran-has-never-approved-of-russian-aggression-against-ukraine-irans-president-claims-amid-reported-ballistic-missile-deliveries-to-russia/ as Tehran allegedly transfers ballistic missiles to Russia.
"We are willing to sit down with the Europeans and the Americans to have a dialogue and negotiations. We have never approved of Russian aggression against Ukrainian territory," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed. [what a clown]

Ukraine launches online marriages to unite couples separated by war
https://kyivindependent.com/it-looked-unusual-we-risked-how-ukrainians-getting-married-online/

⚡️Teenagers set fire https://kyivindependent.com/teenagers-set-fire-to-russian-military-helicopter-in-omsk/ to Russian military helicopter in Omsk.

⚡️Russian attacks https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-4-injure-39-over-past-day/ against Ukraine kill 4, injure 39 over past day.
⚡️1 person killed, 10 injured after Russian attacks https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-on-donetsk-oblast/ on Donetsk Oblast.
⚡️Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia kills 1, injures 5 https://kyivindependent.com/russian-strike-on-zaporizhzhia-kills-1-injures-5-including-13-year-old-girl/ including 13-year-old girl.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪ SEP 24, 2024
■ Day makes top 10 list for casualties despite engagements being below 7-day average
■ Continued massive equipment losses including 3 air defence systems
■ 🇺🇦 strikes up, 🇷🇺 strikes down; ratio now in low double-digits

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The artillery plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania, will increase the production of 155-mm shells for Ukrainian soldiers, said President Zelenskyy.

Russia Plans to Increase Defense Spending by More Than a Quarter in 2025
Expenditures on national defense and internal security next year are projected to account for about 40% of all budgetary allocations in Russia—more than the combined allocations for education, healthcare, social policy, and the national economy.

President Zelenskyy met with Indian Prime Minister Modi for the third time this year. Their meeting took place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.
According to the President of Ukraine, they discussed strengthening cooperation on international platforms, particularly the UN and G20, as well as the implementation of the “peace formula” and preparations for the second “peace summit.”

❗️The lack of a multilateral response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine raises serious doubts about the UN's ability to maintain global peace and security. It is clear that significant reforms of the Security Council are necessary, according to Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda.

Ukraine is preparing a document for the release of prisoners of war, which will be presented at the second Peace Summit, said Zelenskyy.

🇳🇱 The Netherlands announced a new support package for Ukraine totaling 209.5 million euros, aimed at restoring critical infrastructure.

A representative office of the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) will open in Kyiv this fall, announced Andrii Sybiha, head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, after a meeting with his Japanese counterpart, Yoko Kamikawa.

The Parliament of Switzerland recognized the Holodomor of 1932-1933 as an act of genocide, said the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇳🇱 The Netherlands has already delivered a radar system for the Patriot air defense system to Ukraine and will soon supply three launchers, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said

🇨🇿The President of the Czech Republic believes that Kyiv must agree to the possibility that some territories of Ukraine may remain under Russian control, at least "temporarily."
He expressed this opinion in an interview with the American publication The New York Times.
"The most likely outcome of the war," Pavel said, "is that part of Ukrainian territory will temporarily be under Russian occupation." However, he noted that this "temporary situation" could last for years.

The situation is critical [in Vuhledar], but the soldiers of the 72nd Brigade continue to hold the line https://t.me/liveukraine_media/24695

🇺🇸 Donald Trump claims https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-zelenskiy-wants-democrats-win-us-elections-2024-09-24/ that Volodymyr Zelensky wants Kamala Harris to win the U.S. presidential election

During the night, air defense forces shot down 66 Shahed attack drones. Another 13 drones were neutralized through the active countermeasures of the Defense Forces
Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile, two guided aviation missiles (Kh-59/69), an unidentified missile, and 81 drones at Ukraine.

🇵🇱Polish President Andrzej Duda criticized Deputy PM Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz for suggesting Ukraine can’t join the EU without resolving the Volhynia tragedy.
Duda warned that blocking Ukraine’s EU path aligns with Putin’s agenda to stop its Euro-Atlantic integration.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian Forces Reportedly Destroy Russian S-400 Triumf Missile Systems in Precision Strike
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39454

"Today, every second piece of ammunition on the front lines is of Ukrainian production" — Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov
According to him, while the Ukrainian share of ammunition was 18% in 2023, it has increased to 41% in 2024.

Russia's kamikaze meat assaults hitting multiple sections of the front simultaneously, huge losses, minimal gains
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39436

As war costs mount, Russians increasingly disposing of fallen soldiers right at the front to claim as missing rather than paying death conpensation to families back home.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39426

The lack of a multilateral response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine raises serious doubts about the UN's ability to maintain global peace and security. It is clear that significant reforms of the Security Council are necessary, according to Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda.

Judging by the UN response the Ukraine conflict and issues elsewhere ATM I think it’s pretty clear to many observers that the UN needs tearing apart and rebuilding from basement level up….however given all the vested interests that’s not going to happen.

Donald Trump claims https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-zelenskiy-wants-democrats-win-us-elections-2024-09-24/ that Volodymyr Zelensky wants Kamala Harris to win the U.S. presidential election

What's the old saying, "a stopped clock is right twice a day"?

Trump can't bring himself to say he wants Ukraine to win the war. Of course Zelensky wants Harris to win.

By the way, Zelensky's visit to the munitions plant in Pennsylvania was a brilliant move. The workers gave him a hero's welcome, and it was excellent public relations for Ukraine.

By the way, Zelensky's visit to the munitions plant in Pennsylvania was a brilliant move. The workers gave him a hero's welcome, and it was excellent public relations for Ukraine.

That is so nice to read. I hope it gave Zelensky a much needed morale boost from the people of Pennsylvania.

He carries the world on his shoulders. We owe him a great debt for keeping Ukraine in the fight.

Maybe that will be at least some ordinary people who now realise that yes, arms for Ukraine are being given to Ukraine, but those arms are providing jobs and wages for Americans – and the Americans are not being bombed for it.

I'm sure that was part of the thinking behind the visit. That plant, and others like it, are running flat out. The jobs have high wages and good benefits, and the workers have all of the overtime hours they want (which pay either time and a half or double time wages).

The economy in the US is quite good at the moment. The unemployment rate is only 4.2%, so that probably blunts the message a bit.

🇺🇸 Donald Trump claims www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-zelenskiy-wants-democrats-win-us-elections-2024-09-24/ that Volodymyr Zelensky wants Kamala Harris to win the U.S. presidential election

And, whatever he may say to the contrary, Putin wants Trump to win - which tells you something!

Impassioned speech from David Lammy at the UN:

x.com/united24media/status/1838689847919415802?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

Yes, Slava Ukraini. Heartfelt speech

Brilliant speech!