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Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

1000 replies

MagicFox · 15/08/2024 20:29

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
289
mids2019 · 14/09/2024 14:59

It's all so opaque and possibly we will be for a long time. I think the US has specific intelligence and as it's military assets are distributed throughout the world potentially bears the greatest risk of retaliation.

Maybe there is disagreement about Putin's red lines who knows? It will s obviously election time in the US and did Biden not want to stir things in Ukraine to a point where either he would have to make major decisions that could impact Democrats hopes in the election?

If a symbolic misslie was fired into Poland for example then there would have to be done very swift decisions made by the West to prevent escalation and either responding or not responding would mean risks.

Even if the Russians responded with cyber attacks this may have an influence on the US political scene and if the Democrats are ahead I don't know if Biden wants foreign policy issues to come to a head with unknown effects on the polls.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/09/2024 15:12

I mildly wonder if the Republicans, who were always the more hawkish, would change their tune and admire Biden if he really did allow the US to fire missiles at Russia!

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 14/09/2024 15:12

It's rather sad that an unknown number of Ukrainian civilians, many of them children, should have to be sacifices for an American election.

Positivethought · 14/09/2024 15:22

I don’t think Biden’s decision will have done much to further Harris’ standing among Eastern European voters living in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Winsconson.

mids2019 · 14/09/2024 15:30

How Biden may not want to upset the international stage who at such a febrile time just before an election. It s an unkown.

Kamala is basing her campaign very much on internal issues and would she want to be distracted from this electoral line by some sudden change in the Ukraine war dynamics. Could the Democrats be worried about Putin doing something different that would suddenly change voters thoughts in November (I don't know why but it would be headache for the white house). I believe Putin wants Trump in so causing a sudden focus on Ukraine may shake things up.

DdraigGoch · 14/09/2024 17:06

minsmum · 14/09/2024 14:22

What I wonder is what is the red line for the West or is it there not one

Putin saw how weak Western red lines were when Assad (with his backing) was able to stride purposely across them with no response.

notimagain · 14/09/2024 18:17

@mids2019

Why don't the West release at some intelligence that brought about this vote face. ..... I think releasing some information to the public will help explain this.

I know it is frustrating as heck but often the reason is to protect sources and intelligence gathering techniques....

Igotjelly · 14/09/2024 18:28

notimagain · 14/09/2024 18:17

@mids2019

Why don't the West release at some intelligence that brought about this vote face. ..... I think releasing some information to the public will help explain this.

I know it is frustrating as heck but often the reason is to protect sources and intelligence gathering techniques....

Agree. The nosy part of me wants to know, another part of me would rather they were still able to capture intelligence to keep us safe!

Igotjelly · 14/09/2024 18:29

It definitely does feel like we were 100% on our way to it being approved and it’s like someone put a handbrake on.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 14/09/2024 18:29

The NL and an unknown country were going to send a Patriot to Ukraine. It seems the unknown country has withdrawn their commitment.

No words.

MagicFox · 14/09/2024 18:33

@velinatchakarova

The West didnβ€˜t deliver what they promised, didnβ€˜t stick to their own sanctions but often bypassed them, and didnβ€˜t win the hearts and minds in the Global South to support Ukraine. On the contrary, Russia launched war economy and received ammunitions and missiles from Iran & North Korea, started diverting its fossil fuels and key commodities to China, India & other key countries in the Global South, and Russia has managed to keep many partners via BRICS+, SCO, and other regional formats. On top of this, Russia has been successfully waging non-kinetic war on Europe (commodities, nuclear blackmail, hybrid warfare operations of different scope and scale, cyber operations, instrumentalisation of migration etc. from day 1, but Western politicians, institutions, and societies are not prepared and willing to fight back. Russia still wants to subjugate the whole of Ukraine, change the balance of power & reshape the security architecture in Europe, and coordinate policies and actions with China via #DragonBear modus vivendi to form a new global order based on their own interests and understanding.

OP posts:
dibly · 15/09/2024 01:36

Desperately hoping the west step up. Agree with every word of the post above, and can’t imagine how let down Ukranians feel right now.

Arconialiving · 15/09/2024 09:01

dibly · 15/09/2024 01:36

Desperately hoping the west step up. Agree with every word of the post above, and can’t imagine how let down Ukranians feel right now.

I feel the same.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 15/09/2024 09:08

I worry the powers that be, in the West, inevitably make decisions with a western mindset which Putin depends upon and are too quick to back down. I am sure that their intelligence is credible, but my question is, why make such bold moves in public, publicising flying in for THE meeting, to then back down which looks weak. I know some of my Ukrainian friends would say that you have to fight fire with fire when it comes to Russia. A scary prospect for more western mindsets excepting Trump!

Igotjelly · 15/09/2024 09:20

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 15/09/2024 09:08

I worry the powers that be, in the West, inevitably make decisions with a western mindset which Putin depends upon and are too quick to back down. I am sure that their intelligence is credible, but my question is, why make such bold moves in public, publicising flying in for THE meeting, to then back down which looks weak. I know some of my Ukrainian friends would say that you have to fight fire with fire when it comes to Russia. A scary prospect for more western mindsets excepting Trump!

I wonder if the flying in and public posturing was a provocation, to see how Russia would respond. And they clearly responded in a way that made the US think there was reason for pause.

If we’ve eventually found Putin’s true red line I wonder if we’ll see more of a push by the US etc for β€˜peace’ talks.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 15/09/2024 09:26

Makes sense @Igotjelly will be interested to see.

blueshoes · 15/09/2024 12:35

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-14-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian officials and sources indicated that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast has prompted the Russian authorities to increase the size of the Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast by upwards of a factor of three.
  • Ukraine and Russia conducted a prisoner of war (POW) exchange on September 14 β€” the third POW exchange since the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, which appears to have generated the short-term effect of increasing incentives for Russia to engage in POW exchanges.
  • Some Russian field commanders continue to make decisions that degrade the overall quality of their subordinate forcesβ€”prioritizing infantry-led frontal assault tactics over cultivating technical specialists who would allow the Russian military to better field technologies and innovations in combat operations.
  • The Kremlin continues efforts to leverage global informational instruments of influence to develop new capabilities to conduct election interference, destabilization measures, and sanctions evasion schemes.
  • Officials of Georgia’s ruling Georgia Dream party continue to elevate narratives echoing Kremlin information operations justifying Russia’s occupation of internationally recognized Georgian territories.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to advance in Glushkovsky Raion and Russian forces recently regained territory near Korenevo and Sudzha.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar.
  • Russian forces are reportedly repairing captured Soviet-era Ukrainian equipment to replenish Russian vehicle stocks.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
Positivethought · 15/09/2024 13:47

Interesting post on Politico regarding Friday’s White House meeting. Despite being dated 12 September it is still relevant in that some spokespersons did not expect a decision to be made at Friday’s meeting but hope was expressed it would be dealt with at the UN General Assembly later in September.
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-vladimir-putin-war-in-ukraine-missile-strike-deal-britain-keir-starmer-united-states-joe-biden-white-house-summit-nati-iran-diplomacy/

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/09/2024 16:23

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️ATACMS restrictions subject of 'intense consultations' https://kyivindependent.com/atacms-restrictions-subject-of-intense-consultations-between-ukraine-and-allies-sullivan-says/ between Ukraine and allies, Sullivan says.
ATACMS restrictions are "the subject of intense consultation among allies and partners, and will be (discussed) between President (Biden) and President Zelensky," U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said.

⚑️Germany won't allow long-range strikes on Russia even if other countries do, Scholz says. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-wont-allow-long-range-strikes-on-russia-even-if-other-countries-do-scholz-says/

⚑️Biden administration requests https://kyivindependent.com/biden-administration-requests-extension-of-5-8-billion-military-funding-for-ukraine/ extension of nearly $6 billion military funding for Ukraine.
Biden's administration has requested Congress to extend the authority of "presidential write-offs" for supplying weapons to Ukraine until 2025, so that the remaining $5.8 billion can be used beyond the fiscal year ending on September 30.
Under current rules, the funds will expire if not used by that deadline.

⚑️Netherlands unable https://kyivindependent.com/media-netherlands-unable-to-fulfill-complete-patriot-delivery-after-unnamed-partner-backs-out/ to fulfill complete Patriot delivery after unnamed partner backs out, media reports.
An agreement for the Netherlands to provide Ukraine with a full Patriot air defense system has fallen through after an unnamed ally working with the country backed out, local media reported.

⚑️Ukraine launched https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-launched-production-of-155-mm-artillery-shells-official-says/ production of 155-mm artillery shells, official says.

The Ukrainian military has been handed the 18 Ukrainian-made Bohdana self-propelled howitzers financed by Denmark, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced. https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukraine-has-received-18-ukrainian-made-artillery-systems-financed-by-denmark/

⚑️Russians' faith in their country's safety 'broken' by Ukraine's deep strikes, Budanov says.
Speaking during the 20th annual Yalta European Strategy (YES) meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said the strikes have had a "serious effect on the social-psychological situation," adding that "the (Russian) people's belief in that they live in a safe country has been broken. It is the main achievement of all these deep strikes.'' https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-russians-faith-in-their-countrys-safety-broken-by-ukraines-deep-strikes/

⚑️Media: Cyprus revokes https://kyivindependent.com/media-cyprus-revokes-citizenship-of-ukrainian-oligarch-kolomoisky/ citizenship of Ukrainian oligarch Kolomoisky.
Cyrpus has stripped Ihor Kolomoisky's Cyrpus citizenship after concluding that the notorious Ukrainian oligarch had withheld vital information related to criminal charges he faces, Philenews reported.

At least 33 people including three children were injured when a Russian air strike hit a high-rise building in Kharkiv city and caused a fire, authorities reported on Sept. 15. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-strike-on-high-rise-in-kharkiv-leaves-at-least-33-injured/
⚑️3 killed in Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia Oblast, governor says. https://kyivindependent.com/governor-3-killed-in-russian-attack-on-zaporizhzhia-oblast/

β€ͺRagnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦β€¬ β€ͺ- SEP 15, 2024
β–  Engagements above 7-day average, casualties below it
β–  Massive drone losses (5th highest from start of invasion)
β–  KIU: +43 officers; 5.8 per day for last four batches
β–  Unfavorable strike ratio

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/09/2024 16:29

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

British intelligence reports that Ukraine is continuing its efforts to disrupt Russian logistics in the Kursk region by targeting road and pontoon bridges.

Russian forces struck an agricultural enterprise in the Huliaypole community of the Zaporizhzhia region, killing three employees.

Citibank, the last major American bank operating in Russia and one of the largest Western banks in the Russian market, has announced its plans to wind down operations. Previously ranked among the top 20 banks in Russia by assets, Citigroup confirmed the closure.

Romania's Energy Minister, Sebastian BurduΕΎa, has emphasized the need for European allies to share the burden of supporting Ukraine and Moldova with electricity. While Romania remains committed to helping both countries, BurduΕΎa highlighted that energy prices in Eastern Europe are now three times higher than in Western Europe. To address this imbalance, Romania, along with Bulgaria and Greece, plans to request compensatory measures from the European Commission.

The foreign ministers of the G7 countries have jointly condemned Iran for supplying Russia with ballistic missiles, drones, and related technologies, urging Iran to cease any support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine. In their statement, they emphasized the serious threat these deliveries pose to the Ukrainian people, as well as to European and international security.

The Appeals Chamber of the Ethics Commission of the International Chess Federation (FIDE) has overturned a prior decision to suspend the Russian Chess Federation (FSR) for two years, according to DW. Instead, the FSR will now be fined 45,000 euros. If the fine is not paid within 21 days, Russia risks being expelled from FIDE for one year.

Five former defense ministers, along with ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have urged British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to permit Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles for strikes on Russia, according to the Sunday Times.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/09/2024 16:32

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukraine has started producing 155 mm artillery shells.
Oleksandr Kamyshin, former head of the Ministry of Strategic Industry, says that production of defense equipment in Ukraine has doubled since the start of the full-scale war and will triple by the end of the year.
Norway is financing the production of 155 mm caliber shells in Ukraine and has also allowed the use of Nammo technology for this purpose.

Russia would like to end the war by the end of 2025 - the beginning of 2026 with its victory, because from the summer of 2025 it will begin to have serious problems in the economy, - Budanov

The amount of military assistance provided by the DPRK to Russia is incomparable with other allies of the occupiers. The fact that the country is helping Russia with ammunition is a critical problem, Kyrylo Budanov said at the 20th annual meeting of the Yalta European Strategy (YES)

Zelensky met with a bipartisan U.S. Congressional delegation and announced plans to personally present Ukraine's victory plan to President Biden and presidential candidates from both major parties. He expressed gratitude for the ongoing support from the U.S. President and Congress since the beginning of the war

Ukrainian paratroopers defeated a Russian airborne unit in Kursk region on Friday, according to Ukrainian Air Assault Forces
As a result, five infantry fighting vehicles, a tank and an armored personnel carrier were destroyed.

A married couple was killed by a Russian missile attack on the outskirts of Odesa
Preliminary, the Russians used a prohibited cluster warhead in the missile. Another woman was injured.

About 30 missiles, more than 800 guided bombs, and nearly 300 drones were used by Russians against Ukraine this week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

mids2019 · 15/09/2024 16:33

There is a lot of military criticism of delaying the announcement of Ukraine using missiles to target Russian territory. David Lammy argues maybe with justification that the freedom of targeting would not itself win the war and has to be considered in the context of overall military strategy. While this may be true ultimately it looks like a significant backward step by the West presumably promoted by fears of escalation. Putin can now see the West is prepared to limit aid to Ukraine if they feel the risk is to high and he will inevitably use this knowledge to his advantage in future. Aren't the West effectively saying - we will give Ukraine the aid of needs but there are limits. This is not helpful.

I wonder if there is unknown evidence of Russia being prepared to do something escalatory but maybe this is the time to call Putin's bluff knowingly conventionally the West has a huge advantage? The nuclear bluffing has been called before so why not again?

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/09/2024 16:33

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russia's war in Ukraine is now costing Russia $300,000,000/day, up 36% from one year ago.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38990

Overnight, Russians poured cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and Iranian Shahed drones onto residential areas of Odesa, some with cluster munitions.
There are several victims. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39007

‼️Rescue efforts are ongoing in Kharkiv after Russians targeted a residential high rise building.
Among the dozens of victims, at least three are children. https://t.me/Kyivpost_official/25487

Putin’s War Costs Russians More Than $300 Million a Day

A German researcher looked at Russian open source and β€œsecret” financial data and crunched the numbers as the β€œthree-day special military operation” enters its 32nd month with mind-blowing results.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38990

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