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Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

1000 replies

MagicFox · 15/08/2024 20:29

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
289
notimagain · 15/09/2024 16:54

@mids2019

Hi

I wonder if there is unknown evidence of Russia being prepared to do something escalatory but maybe this is the time to call Putin's bluff knowingly conventionally the West has a huge advantage? The nuclear bluffing has been called before so why not again?

I'm working from memory here but one problem the west might have is that certainly Soviet doctrine appeared to be much more permissive than the west's when it came to the use of nuclear weapons at a sub-strategic level.

In short NATO/the west can't rule out Putin using nuclear weapons in theatre in response to an overwhelming 100% conventional attack.

....and I don't have a solution to that.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/09/2024 17:08

If he does that, then China and the rest of BRICS is going to be very unhappy indeed.

blueshoes · 15/09/2024 17:09

⚑️Biden administration requests https://kyivindependent.com/biden-administration-requests-extension-of-5-8-billion-military-funding-for-ukraine/ extension of nearly $6 billion military funding for Ukraine.
Biden's administration has requested Congress to extend the authority of "presidential write-offs" for supplying weapons to Ukraine until 2025, so that the remaining $5.8 billion can be used beyond the fiscal year ending on September 30. Under current rules, the funds will expire if not used by that deadline.

@MissConductUS is this likely to be passed?

mids2019 · 15/09/2024 17:27

@notimagain

I don't think there Soundwave been an immediate use of nuclear missiles but a plausible path to their use wargaming various escalatory scenarios. Perhaps a large scale cyber attack or a strike of even limited scope on a NATO state would bring about a series of forced retalitory strikes that would result in nuclear weapons simply because of the west's military advantage conventiinally.

One other thought I have (perhaps it's wrong) is that continued and increased military co operation between Iran and Russia could mean Russia giving Iran the means of producing a nuclear weapon. Given Iran's hostile attitude to Israel there may pro Israeli voices urging that the Ukraine war has to end because the consequences of it are destabilising the world too much.

Perhaps an increased threat to Israel and other world spark points mean some are now contemplating advantage in having the war cease?

MissConductUS · 15/09/2024 17:27

** is this likely to be passed?

Biden has requested it to be attached to the CR (continuing resolution) that will allow the government to keep spending money after the end of the fiscal year (Sept 30). There's not likely to be much opposition to it, but passing the CR has been challenging because Trump is sticking his beak in on an unrelated matter. More here:

Biden requests extension for delivering $5.8 billion in Ukraine aid

I think it will go through, but it's not a certainty.

notimagain · 15/09/2024 17:30

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 15/09/2024 17:08

If he does that, then China and the rest of BRICS is going to be very unhappy indeed.

Maybe...

I don't want go all Daily Mail with this but I'd put money on the grown ups at NATO have gamed that Putin might respond to a large NATO facilitated conventional strike deep into Russia with a single device aimed at somewhere important/significant in theatre (aka Selective Release).

I do wonder if some of the reluctance we are sensing is down to the content of some telephone calls rather than anything gleaned from intelligence.

blueshoes · 15/09/2024 17:38

Thanks for the info @MissConductUS Fingers crossed the CR gets passed.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 15/09/2024 18:01

Whilst I concede that Russia would resort to nuclear weapons (before anyone else would anyway) I still think the boundaries need to be bounced. Carefully. I do wonder if the imminent US election is playing a role in timing as PPs have said or as @notimagain has said that this could be the RED line. They have threatened to turn Kyiv into a melting pot in response...it feels impossible to navigate.

Igotjelly · 16/09/2024 08:18

This latest assassination attempt on Trump doesn’t look great given the links the suspect had with Ukraine. Seems he was a supporter of Ukraine, at least on social media and spent some time there. Despite the fact he seems to have been unsuccessful in joining the Ukrainian army this won’t ingratiate the Ukrainian cause with Republicans and we can guarantee Trump won’t support them now. https://x.com/KyivPost/status/1835554559344689556

x.com

https://x.com/KyivPost/status/1835554559344689556

heldinadream · 16/09/2024 09:37

@Igotjelly That x post seems to have been deleted.

Igotjelly · 16/09/2024 09:54

heldinadream · 16/09/2024 09:37

@Igotjelly That x post seems to have been deleted.

Ooh that’s strange. It was a Kyiv Independent article about the fact that the suspect had unsuccessfully applied to join the Ukrainian armed forces and has been pretending to be a recruiter for the foreign legion for years.

dibly · 16/09/2024 13:44

visegrad24 reported on Twitter:

SCOOP:

CNN falsely claims that the Trump shooter had been β€œfighting in Ukraine.”

We have just been in touch with the frontline humanitarian aid volunteer @audiocustoms82 who met the Trump shooter Ryan Wesley Routh in Kyiv in June 2022 and exchanged phone numbers with him but had to block him after a while.

He describes Ryan as a man who was intensely focused on his task but that it was difficult to communicate with him as he wouldn’t take in information that was given to him and would then continue to obsessively call after having been told not to.

He says that Ryan could be constantly seen walking around the Maidan Square in Kyiv and talk to anyone who he heard speak in English.

@audiocustoms82 says that Ryan became known among other international volunteers as the β€œAmerican flag bandana guy” as he kept walking around dressed that day.

He says that rumors went around the volunteers that Ryan was deported by Ukraine after having annoyed the authorities by continuing to try to send Afghan and Pakistan soldiers to Ukraine despite having been told that the Ukrainians weren’t interested in his plans.

@audiocustoms82 says that it’s unlikely that Ryan ever left Kyiv for any other locations in Ukraine and that he definitely never fought in Ukraine.

CNN portrayed Ryan moments ago as someone who had been β€œfighting in Ukraine.” That is not the case.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/09/2024 14:56

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Western aid not enough to equip 'even 4 out of 14' underarmed brigades needed on the front, Zelensky says.
Ukraine hadn't received enough military aid from the foreign partners to equip "even four out of 14" Ukrainian army brigades that the country "needs to be ready," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with CNN on Sept. 15.
https://kyivindependent.com/western-aid-cant-equip-4-out-of-14-brigades-needed-on-the-front-zelensky-said/

⚑️ Putin signed a decree on Sept. 16 increasing the number of the Russian Armed Forces from roughly 2.2 million to 2,389,130 people, including 1.5 million military personnel. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-increases-number-of-military-staff-personnel-to-over-2-3-million-people/

⚑️Iranian president to attend BRICS summit https://kyivindependent.com/iranian-president-to-attend-brics-summit-in-russia/ in Russia.
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian will attend the upcoming BRICS forum hosted in Kazan, Russia in October. Tehran and Moscow are expected to sign a bilateral cooperation agreement at the summit.

️Trump safe after shots fired https://kyivindependent.com/trump-safe-after-shots-fired-at-golf-course/ at golf course.
A man has been taken into custody and the FBI is investigating the shooting as a possible assassination attempt against former U.S. President Donald Trump.
⚑️Suspect detained https://kyivindependent.com/suspect-detained-in-trump-assassination-attempt-claimed-to-support-ukraine/ in Trump assassination attempt claimed to support Ukraine.

⚑️ Ukraine to receive another batch of Danish F-16s https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-f16-2024/ this year, minister says.
The Danish government promised to transfer another batch of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine later this year, the DR broadcaster reported on Sept. 15, citing Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.

⚑️ Latvia to supply Ukraine with British-made CVR(T) https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-to-supply-ukraine-with-armored-vehicles/ armored vehicles.
The vehicles' number and other details were not disclosed due to security concerns, Delfi wrote.

⚑️ Russia continues to store ammunition, deploy troops at Zaporizhzhia https://kyivindependent.com/resistance-center-zaporizhzhia-plant/ nuclear plant, Kyiv says.

⚑️ Ukraine invites UN, Red Cross https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-invites-un-red-cross-to-kursk-oblast/ to Kyiv-held part of Kursk Oblast.

⚑️ Poland will finance https://kyivindependent.com/sikorski-ammunition-initiative/ Czech artillery initiative for Ukraine, minister promises amid delays.
The minister confirmed that Warsaw has not yet participated in the project due to "temporary formal obstacles."

Two Russian IL-38 military aircraft were detected and tracked while operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on Sept. 14, marking the third such incident in one week, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) reported on Sept. 15. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-aircraft-detected-near-alaska-for-third-time-in-1-week/

⚑️Ukraine offers https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-offers-neighbor-countries-help-with-deadly-floods/ neighbor countries help with deadly floods.

⚑️ 'Ukraine can keep them' β€” Chechen commander renounces https://kyivindependent.com/chechen-commander-on-captives/ compatriots who surrendered to Kyiv
Chechen commander Apti Alaudinov on Sept. 15 said that fighters who willingly surrendered to Ukrainian forces do not deserve to live and should "do everything they can to get themselves killed."

⚑️ Fugitive Ukrainian ex-MP Derkach https://kyivindependent.com/derkach-appointed-russian-senator/ appointed to Russian Senate.

⚑️94-year-old woman killed https://kyivindependent.com/russian-strike-on-high-rise-in-kharkiv-leaves-at-least-33-injured/ in Russian strike on high-rise in Kharkiv.

⚑️ 8 injured in Ukrainian attack on Russia's Belgorod https://kyivindependent.com/belgorod-attack/ local authorities claim.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦β€¬ β€ͺ
β–  Engagements above 7-day average, casualties -4% in the last 7 days
β–  Modest equipment losses but +36% in the last 7 days
β–  Janovsky: 48 πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί 21 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ added (2.3:1); 30-day ratio at 1.7x
β–  Strike ratio could be better

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/09/2024 14:59

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Italy will deliver a second SAMP/T anti-aircraft battery to Ukraine to help protect its population, according to the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

TΓΌrkiye supports Ukraine and seeks a swift end to the war, one that respects the β€˜legitimate interests of the Ukrainian people,’ said Basat Γ–ztΓΌrk, Director General for International Security at the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during a speech at the Atlantic Council forum in Washington, as quoted by Voice of America.

The prime ministers of Great Britain and Italy will discuss Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian territory, according to Bloomberg.

Ukraine has resumed the production of cartridges after losing control of its only ammunition production facility, which is now under Russian occupation, Militarnyi reports, citing military personnel who tested the new cartridges at a training ground. The production includes 5.45Γ—39 mm and 5.56Γ—45 mm calibers.
The report suggests that this is likely a localized production, where Ukrainian-made casings are assembled with imported components.
β€˜It is unlikely that Ukraine’s defense-industrial complex is capable of producing complex items like gunpowder, primers, and intricately designed bullets,’ the article notes.
The Luhansk Ammunition Plant, which before Russian aggression was Ukraine’s sole producer of small arms ammunition, has been under Russian control since 2014.

The Czech Republic has earned more from Ukrainians than it spent on their support, according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs of the Czech Republic.
In the first half of 2024, the Czech Republic gained 4.4 billion kroner ($194.7 million) β€” the difference between the 7.3 billion kroner spent on refugee aid and the 11.7 billion kroner paid in taxes by working Ukrainians.
Additionally, around 118,000 Ukrainians are employed in the Czech Republic, helping to address the country's labor shortage. Research shows that 30% of Ukrainians hold more than one job.

Vladimir Putin reportedly traveled to Mongolia to consult with shamans, seeking their blessing for the use of nuclear weapons, according to Der Spiegel.
β€˜There are rumors in Moscow that Putin needed the approval of shamans before making such a serious decision, fearing to anger the spirits without their consent. Allegedly, he returned from Mongolia satisfied. However, this version seems fantastical, and none of my sources can confirm it. Nevertheless, it appears that a meeting with Mongolian shamans did take place,’ wrote journalist Mikhail Zygar.
Zygar noted that Mongolia and Tuva, where Putin recently visited, are home to some of the world’s most powerful shamans.
β€˜Putin has long been known for his fascination with mysticism, blending his interest in Orthodox beliefs with pagan traditions,’ the article states.
Zygar also claimed that before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin frequently consulted mystics, who reportedly assured him of military victory.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/09/2024 15:00

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Moscow's use of a shadowy fleet to transport Western-sanctioned oil is a key topic of US-British talks
The discussion focused on Ukraine's military efforts and the fight against Russia's covert oil tankers, emphasizing the importance of strengthening sanctions.

During the night, air defense forces shot down 53 out of 56 strike drones used by the Russians to attack Ukraine

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/09/2024 15:03

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

⚑️President Zelensky is scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly in New York on September 25.

Despite Russians advancing on every section of the front, the US has cut aid to Ukraine to the lows of the war for several months.
Now there's $5.8 billion in funds that were previously authorized by congress set to expire unused on October 1st.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39033

⚑️EXCLUSIVE: Ukraine’s Special Forces (HUR) have targeted a Russian drone base in Syria https://t.me/Kyivpost_official/25508

Special forces from the Khimik group of Ukraine’s HUR attacked a Russian military base near Aleppo on Sept. 15. The base was used for making and testing strike UAVs and IEDs.
In this exclusive footage, captured by an intelligence officer and obtained by Kyiv Post, an HUR flag and explosion triggered by a rifle shot hitting pre-planted explosives.

After unsuccessfully attempting to join the Ukrainian Army, the suspect in yesterday's attempted assassination of former President Trump, Ryan Routh spent a few months in Kyiv with intent of associating himself with the war effort.
Publically available social media sources from the time of his visit warned that Routh was misrepresenting himself as a "recruiter" for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In 2023, 58-year-old sniper of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Vyacheslav Kovalsky set a new world record by hitting a Russian soldier at a distance of 3,800 meters.
The historic shot was fired on November 18 on the frontline in the Kherson region. It took the bullet 9 seconds to reach the target at this record distance.
The shot was made using the Horizon Lord sniper rifle, developed by the Ukrainian company of the same name

Despite international outrage, the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) has rescheduled screenings of the film β€œRussians at War”, which had previously been canceled following protests from Ukrainians.
The TIFF website now lists screenings of β€œRussians at War” on Tuesday, September 17, at 2:00 PM and 6:30 PM local time.

US Congress Has Two Weeks to Safeguard $6 Billion Ukraine Aid Package

Almost $6 billion in US military aid for Ukraine is at risk as there is a Sept. 30 deadline on the current Pentagon authorization to send stockpiled weapons to Kyiv.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39033

Igotjelly · 16/09/2024 15:07

Something about the story of Putin meeting with Shamans unnerves me somewhat. I know it’s bollocks but if he believes it then it feels like a serious step.

heldinadream · 16/09/2024 15:58

Igotjelly · 16/09/2024 15:07

Something about the story of Putin meeting with Shamans unnerves me somewhat. I know it’s bollocks but if he believes it then it feels like a serious step.

It's very, very creepy, and straight down in lineage from Rasputin. And I just realised that the name Rasputin contains Putin, and he's probably got all sorts of ridiculous god-determined notions going on of being the person chosen to chase away darkness etc, Messianic in short. Once someone thinks like that about themselves they could not be more dangerous, because the higher calling justifies anything in their mind.
Shit.

WinterMorn · 16/09/2024 16:44

Igotjelly · 16/09/2024 15:07

Something about the story of Putin meeting with Shamans unnerves me somewhat. I know it’s bollocks but if he believes it then it feels like a serious step.

For now, I am filing this in the same drawer as all of the reports from 2022 that repeatedly said how unwell Putin was, and how this doesn’t seem to have any sort of relevance any more.

blueshoes · 16/09/2024 16:44

heldinadream · 16/09/2024 15:58

It's very, very creepy, and straight down in lineage from Rasputin. And I just realised that the name Rasputin contains Putin, and he's probably got all sorts of ridiculous god-determined notions going on of being the person chosen to chase away darkness etc, Messianic in short. Once someone thinks like that about themselves they could not be more dangerous, because the higher calling justifies anything in their mind.
Shit.

We can take comfort in the fact it did not end so well for Rasputin.

MagicFox · 16/09/2024 17:28

My position on this is same as @WinterMorn

OP posts:
heldinadream · 16/09/2024 18:03

You are a wonderful, sensible bunch and I appreciate your wise sobriety, great contrast to my slightly hysterical, gloomy, poetics. πŸ˜‚

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/09/2024 18:42

I'll squat with you on the Slightly Hysterical, Gloomy, Poetic wall if you'd like some company

heldinadream · 16/09/2024 18:52

Ah, thanks @DucklingSwimmingInstructress , all are welcome to join me as long as wise and sensible hats are not abandoned. πŸ™‚

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 16/09/2024 19:43

heldinadream · 16/09/2024 18:52

Ah, thanks @DucklingSwimmingInstructress , all are welcome to join me as long as wise and sensible hats are not abandoned. πŸ™‚

But are we also allowed to quote cheerful or slightly surreal poetry?

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