Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress oh I love Brooke and that is spot on and both sad and beautiful. 💔
Maybe we should start up a poetry thread somewhere.
Bloody love the Waterboys too!
Light relief. 🙂

I'm on the verge of breaking out the T.S. Eliot.

It's not that bad ... yet.

No, go on please =)

"the centre cannot hold" cuts much too close at the moment.

Kipling, earlier and also true:

It is wrong to put temptation in the path of any nation,
For fear they should succumb and go astray;
So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,
You will find it better policy to say:—

"We never pay any-one Dane-geld,
No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
And the nation that plays it is lost!"

I'm going to resist Eliot and go Wisława Szymborska. Because she was Polish, and a woman, so I'm diverting from all the old western blokes (even though I like them, those poetic ones).

The End and the Beginning

After every war
someone has to clean up.
Things won’t
straighten themselves up, after all.

Someone has to push the rubble
to the side of the road,
so the corpse-filled wagons
can pass.

Someone has to get mired
in scum and ashes,
sofa springs,
splintered glass,
and bloody rags.

Someone has to drag in a girder
to prop up a wall.
Someone has to glaze a window,
rehang a door.

Photogenic it’s not,
and takes years.
All the cameras have left
for another war.

We’ll need the bridges back,
and new railway stations.
Sleeves will go ragged
from rolling them up.

Someone, broom in hand,
still recalls the way it was.
Someone else listens
and nods with unsevered head.
But already there are those nearby
starting to mill about
who will find it dull.

From out of the bushes
sometimes someone still unearths
rusted-out arguments
and carries them to the garbage pile.

Those who knew
what was going on here
must make way for
those who know little.
And less than little.
And finally as little as nothing.

In the grass that has overgrown
causes and effects,
someone must be stretched out
blade of grass in his mouth
gazing at the clouds.

Why don't the West release at some intelligence that brought about this vote face. By just not announcing the allowance of NATO missile use in Russia they look weak. Not great in military terms.

The risk of escalation must have been such that NATO and specifically the US have taken this decision. Western intelligence must have an insight into Russian decision making and something started alarm bells. Was it movement of submarines or aircraft? We're their conversations in the Russian elite that couldn't be ignored? Has even Russia's nuclear posture changed? I think releasing some information to the public will help explain this.

Bloody hell that's evocative @heldinadream

Kipling had so much more depth than people realise didn't he @AskingQuestionsAllTheTime

As disappointed and depressed we are just imagine how Zelensky and his countrymen are feeling. If the US and UK are stepping back due to intelligence, I don’t consider it would be possible for them to indicate any details as that would highly likely compromise their source(s).

She's amazing. Won the Nobel, died in 2012. Check her out if you don't know her, she's incredibly accessible.
I think poetry is standing down now and we're back in war brain. I've enjoyed it, thank you for joining in. It's really more my territory. I spend most of my time on these threads in awe of all of you who can digest the nuts and bolts of the war. Specially you Duckling, how you put those round ups together day after day is beyond me. I do hope you are saving it all somewhere, I think it's a really valuable record of what has happened over time.
It may have uses later that cannot yet be envisaged.

Love Kipling, yes people tend to see him rather one-dimensionally.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has reportedly spoiled planned Russian offensive operations along the international border area that likely aimed to expand the area of active combat operations across a broader front in northeastern Ukraine.
• Russian forces continue to counterattack throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, but the Russian military will likely have to redeploy additional elements from elsewhere in the theater to Kursk Oblast to establish a force grouping capable of pursuing a sustained counteroffensive operation.
• Russian forces appear to be testing more effective mechanized assault tactics west of Donetsk City, although Russian armored vehicles remain vulnerable to Ukrainian strike and drone capabilities.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted their second prisoner of war (POW) exchange since the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast on September 13.
• Russia continues efforts to strengthen strategic military ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), North Korea, and Iran to support its war effort in Ukraine.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast amid continued Russian and Ukrainian assaults in the area on September 13.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• Russian authorities continue attempts to coerce minorities and Ukrainian youth living in occupied Ukraine to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense (MoD) to avoid conducting a wider mobilization.

As long as it's not part of US politics. Wasn't there something about Harris being more likely to agree to this than Biden, which is the opposite of Trump. By refusing this now, Harris will be better able to show she is different. Unfortunately Ukraine suffer the consequences in the short term. If Trump gets voted back in though, the long term consequences don't bear thinking about.

Sorry, that's a bit rambling, but hopefully you get my thoughts.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress
Kipling had so much more depth than people realise didn't he

Mostly they take about five lines out of his enormous ouevre, misunderstand them because they are out of context, and, having decided he was a racist fascist imperialist anti-Semite, and anti-woman with it, they disregard him thereafter except in order to vilify him. The loss is theirs; I doubt that he cares, at this point.

Incidentally I shouldn't have put anything by him into a poetry sub-thread: he was entiirely clear throughout his life, big-head that he obviously was, that he did not write poetry, he wrote verse.

^ I do hope you are saving it all somewhere, I think it's a really valuable record of what has happened over time.
It may have uses later that cannot yet be envisaged.^

Well I used to put the info points in the roundup onto Twitter but given that Musk has become authoritarian, anti-Ukraine and is strangling all pro-Ukraine accounts, I moved to Bluesky instead.

Other than Mumsnet and there, no I haven't made a record. There's so much info out there now, an absolute deluge, that there's not much point I feel.

I wonder if we’ll know further down the line what the reasoning is, a bit similar to how we’re hearing now about the real risks of nuclear weapons being used at the end of 2022.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️No changes in US policy on long-range strikes into Russia expected, White House says. https://kyivindependent.com/no-changes-in-us-policy-on-long-range-strikes-into-russia-expected-white-house-says/

The U.S. State Department issued a press release on Sept. 13 saying that the Russian state-run media outlet RT is not just involved in spreading propaganda and misinformation, but is actively working with Russian intelligence to target countries across the world. https://kyivindependent.com/us-warns-rt-is-directly-involved-in-russian-intelligence-operations/

⚡️ IAEA to increase monitoring missions at facilities critical to nuclear safety in Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-to-increase-number-of-monitoring-missions-at-facilities-affecting-nuclear-safety-in-ukraine/

⚡️Russia's 'rapid' offensive in Kursk Oblast https://kyivindependent.com/russias-rapid-offensive-in-kursk-oblast-hasnt-yet-achieved-serious-success-zelensky-says/ hasn't yet achieved 'serious' success, Zelensky says.
"In the Kursk direction, the Russians have started their rapid offensive, and they want to use about 60,000-70,000 people there," Zelensky said.

⚡️Russia launched production of new drone with Chinese parts https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launched-production-of-new-drone-with-chinese-parts-in-2023-reuters-reports/ in 2023, Reuters reports.
Russia began producing a new long-range attack drone, the Garpiya-A1, using a Chinese engine and other parts in 2023, Reuters reported on Sept. 13, citing two undisclosed sources in European intelligence and obtained documents.

⚡️Sweden, Finland will not prohibit https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-finland-not-to-prohibit-ukraine-from-striking-russia-with-its-weapons-amid-putins-threats-to-nato/ Ukraine from striking Russia with its weapons amid Putin's threats to NATO.

Belarus Weekly: Poland uncovers a cyber-sabotage group linked to Russian, Belarusian security services https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-poland-uncovers-a-cyber-sabotage-group-linked-to-russian-belarusian-security-services/

U.S.-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles are "pointless" in Ukraine due to their limited quantity and restrictions on strikes deep inside Russia imposed by Western partners, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sept. 13 at the Yalta European Strategy conference. https://kyivindependent.com/atacms-available-in-ukraine-pointless-because-you-cant-use-it-zelensky-says/

⚡️Red Cross says it has suspended https://kyivindependent.com/red-cross-says-it-has-suspended-operations-at-dnipro-office-following-attack-that-killed-injured-employees/ operations at Dnipro office following attack that killed, injured employees.

Explainer: Why Zelensky slammed the China-Brazil peace plan
A six-point peace plan jointly proposed by China and Brazil sparked a furious outburst from Zelensky this week, who described it as "destructive." https://kyivindependent.com/explainer-the-destructive-china-brazil-peace-plan-for-ukraine/

Forty-five Indians tricked into joining the Russian military fighting in Ukraine have been released, with 50 more yet to be discharged, NDTV reported on Sept. 12, citing the Indian Foreign Ministry. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-releases-45-indians-fighting-in-ukraine/

⚡️ Ukraine returns 103 POWs, including 23 Azov fighters https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-returns-103-pows-including-23-azov-fighters/

⚡️Ukraine's chief rabbi mourns https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-chief-rabbi-mourns-loss-of-adopted-son-killed-in-combat/ loss of adopted son, killed in combat.

⚡️ Russian airstrike in Sumy Oblast kills 2, injures 6 https://kyivindependent.com/russian-airstrike-in-sumy-oblast/ including child.
⚡️Russian attacks against Ukraine kill at least 6 https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-at-least-6-injure-25-over-past-day/ injure 25 over past day.

Discovering the majesty of the Carpathians | Dare to Ukraine

The second episode of “Dare to Ukraine” is out!

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪SEP 14, 2024
■ Fewer engagements, casualties slightly below 7-day average
■ Good special equipment & APV losses
■ Fewer strikes on both sides; unfavorable strike ratio

I think we should run the risk of those weopons being used, appalling as they are. Because if we run no risks and cave every time, we can be damn sure that Russia and other malevolent countries will push further and further.

The lack of decisive action by the West has made further Russian aggression much more likely not less.

Unfortunately once these weopons were invented, the point was always going to come that an unpleasant country was going to use them to blackmail everyone else.

What I wonder is what is the red line for the West or is it there not one

UNITED24 Telegram Highlights

More than 100 Russian UAVs and missiles have flown near Ukrainian nuclear power plants in less than a month, according to "Energoatom".

🇪🇺 Putin’s threats to drag NATO and European countries into the war if long-range missiles are used on Russian territory will not alter the EU’s stance on supporting Ukraine, said European Commission spokesman Peter Stano.

In Poland, the first high-level meeting was held within the framework of the joint NATO-Ukraine Center for Analysis, Training, and Education (JATEC) — the first joint institution between NATO and Ukraine aimed at strengthening the capabilities of Ukraine’s Defense Forces and accelerating its accession to the Alliance.

On the night of September 14, U.S. President Joseph Biden met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the White House.

Putin may increase sabotage in response to British missile strikes on Russian territory, reports Bloomberg.
The U.S. and the U.K. are discussing the possibility of allowing Ukraine to use British cruise missiles to target Russian military sites. In response, Russia is likely to ramp up sabotage activities and cyberattacks, and may even target U.S. forces in regions like the Middle East, the publication states.
American and European officials believe that “the Kremlin’s threats related to Western missile strikes on Russia will most likely result in increased hybrid attacks.”

Each point of Ukraine’s victory plan will rely on President Biden’s decisions, said President Zelenskyy during his speech at the 20th annual meeting of the Yalta European Strategy.
He plans to meet with the American leader this month to discuss the plan, which will be “very frank, with very clear aid packages.”
“And every point will depend on Biden’s decision, not Putin’s. That’s why I believe it will help. While I can’t guarantee 100% that Putin will stop, it will definitely strengthen Ukraine,” Zelenskyy stated.
He also emphasized that Ukraine needs long-range capabilities to shift the war’s course and compel Russia to seek peace. This was a key topic during Zelenskyy’s recent meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
“After this meeting, there can no longer be any question about why Ukraine requires sufficient long-range capability,” he added.

Successful test of the world’s first grenade launcher drone, — Dyki Shershni (Wild Hornets).
The Bulava strike unit from the Separate Presidential Brigade named after B. Khmelnytskyi mounted a grenade launcher on the Queen of Hornets FPV drone and conducted a successful test.
Now, a standard grenade launcher can operate at a distance of over 5 km, opening up new possibilities for the military. https://t.me/United24media/25062

Hundreds of Pro-Russian Posters Appear in Italian Cities for Months, — CNN
This summer, hundreds of billboards across Italy displayed posters with the slogan, “Russia is not our enemy,” alongside an image of a handshake in the colors of the Italian and Russian flags. Some of these posters, including recent ones in Rome, carried additional messages such as, “Enough money for weapons for Ukraine and Israel. We want peace. We reject war.”
The posters, first spotted in northern Italy in June in cities like Verona, Modena, Parma, Pisa, and parts of southern Calabria, were reportedly funded by groups originally formed to protest Italy’s COVID-19 lockdowns, according to Sovranita Popolare, the organization behind the campaign in Rome.

This is what a plant where uranium is enriched for nuclear weapons in North Korea looks like
Kim Jong-un came there and instructed to increase the nuclear arsenal "in geometric progression.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Zelensky: I am very sad to see that ICRC in their official communication is afraid to say that their workers were killed in a Russian attack.

🇳🇱The Netherlands has provided Ukraine with a radar system for the Patriot air defense system and will soon deliver three launchers, according to Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brakelmans.

🇨🇦Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed full support for Ukraine's use of long-range weapons to prevent Russian attacks on hospitals and schools. He emphasized that President Putin is trying to destabilize the international rules-based order, which protects all democracies and countries worldwide. Trudeau stated that Ukraine's victory is crucial, as failure would encourage other major countries to attempt to annex their neighbors.

NATO could have done more to arm Ukraine and try to prevent a full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, according to outgoing NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg

Medvedev's latest crap

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Poland joins the chorus pressing the US to end the catastrophic policy that forbids Ukraine from striking Russian territory with western weapons.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38932

📹 Russia's decaying stategic bomber fleet resembles something out of a 1950's sci-fi movie
A US F-16 pilot gives us an expert's view into these models.
Watch here:

US Presidential candidate, Harris is launching pro-Ukraine ads in key U.S. states.
The campaign is focused on undecided voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where a significant segment of the population has Eastern European roots.

Totally agree @DucklingSwimmingInstructress . Ukraine really should have been given the option of using long range weapons much earlier in the invasion with the proviso they were to be used on military targets only (also, perhaps, the odd oil refinery and other such infrastructure).

I wonder if Zelensky has access to these threat assessments too? Either the US is keeping something from him, or he knows and thinks that Russia is not going to carry out their threats.

Clearly as well Sweden, the UK, Finland, Canada and other countries do not believe the Russian threats either. Possibly because they don't know, or they simply disagree with the US.

Maybe there are no specific threats and the US has once again set its own red lines.

I read Medvedev’s statement as being a way to temper expectations of the use of nukes to be honest. He’s justifying why they haven’t been used to date and not specifying when they might be. Wonder if the Chinese have been in touch again….

NATO has nukes as well, and not using them is not set in stone. It's just that NATO is mostly made up of civilised nations who would prefer not to.