Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-11-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces began counterattacks along the western edge of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and reportedly seized several settlements northeast and south of Korenevo on September 10 and 11.
• Available visual evidence suggests that Russian forces counterattacking in Kursk Oblast are operating in company-sized units and may be using elements of more combat-experienced units to conduct counterattacks.
• Russian forces may intend to temporarily bisect the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast before beginning a more organized and well-equipped effort to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy arrived in Kyiv on September 11 and reiterated support for Ukraine but did not clarify current Western policy on Ukraine’s ability to strike military objects in Russia with Western-provided weapons.
• The People's Republic of China (PRC) continues to promote its alternative peace plan for the war in Ukraine.
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his support for Ukraine on September 11.
• Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, near Toretsk, and near Pokrovsk.
• Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vitaly Sarantsev reported on September 11 that Russian forces are replenishing their tactical, operational, and strategic reserves.
• Russian occupation authorities illegally held regional elections in occupied Crimea on September 6 to 8 and likely fabricated increased voter turnout numbers to claim that residents broadly support Russia's illegal occupation of Crimea.

The death of David Knowles is so sad, that 8 minute podcast you linked to magicfox was heartbreaking. And not in anyway to detract from that or belittle his contribution to publicising russias illegal war and the atrocities they continue to inflict on Ukraine - but is he really a big enough thorn in russias side to assassinate him? With all the political fall out that act entails.
I'm sure we'll know soon enough, but if he was on the kremlins hit list it must be a bloody big list and it will certainly mean a lot of people will not be sleeping easy in their beds - which I suppose would please the russian powers that be no end.

I think creating an environment where nobody is sleeping easy is exactly why they might do something like this unfortunately

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

US foreign agent rules can't keep pace https://kyivindependent.com/us-foreign-agent-rules-cant-keep-pace-with-russian-propaganda/ with Russian propaganda
U.S. government legal actions targeting a network of Russian influence last week have exposed shortcomings in the country's laws designed to tackle the malign influence of foreign agents, experts told the Kyiv Independent.
Treasury sanctions targeted leaders of Russian state-owned news outlet RT, formerly Russia Today, a media organization widely acknowledged as a Kremlin propaganda machine.

Ukraine war latest: Russian forces recapture 10 settlements https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russian-forces-recapture-10-settlements-in-kursk-oblast-amid-ongoing-counterattack-moscow-claims/ in Kursk Oblast amid ongoing counterattack, Moscow claims

⚡️Russian counterattack https://kyivindependent.com/russian-counterattack-in-kursk-oblast-is-marginal-for-now-pentagon-says/ in Kursk Oblast is 'marginal' for now, Pentagon says.

⚡️US aims https://kyivindependent.com/us-aims-to-improve-ukraines-strategic-position-on-battlefield-before-bidens-term-ends-wsj-reports/ to improve Ukraine's 'strategic position' in war before Biden's term ends, WSJ reports.

⚡️Ukrainian pilots arrive https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-pilots-start-f-16-training/ in Romania for F-16 training

⚡️ Finland announces $130 million aid package for Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/finland-announces/ The total amount of military aid Finland has provided Kyiv now stands at 2.3 billion euros ($2.5 billion), the ministry said.

⚡️Further Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure could lead https://kyivindependent.com/further-russian-attacks-on-ukrainian-energy-infrastructure-could-lead-to-dangerous-nuclear-risks-bloomberg-reports/ to dangerous nuclear risks, Bloomberg reports.
Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko warned that ten critical power substations connected to these plants are at risk, and their destruction could result in a power outage and a potential radiation emergency.

⚡️Updated: Russia strikes https://kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-cargo-ship-with-ukrainian-wheat-for-egypt-in-black-sea/ cargo ship with Ukrainian wheat destined for Egypt in Black Sea.

⚡️Harris allies to run ads highlighting https://kyivindependent.com/harris-allies-to-run-ads-highlighting-ukraine-support-in-key-battleground-states-politico-reports/ Ukraine support in key battleground states, Politico reports.
The TV and digital ads, which will be run in battleground swing states Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, are expected to target Eastern European-American voters, including the sizeable Polish, Lithuanian, and Ukrainian diasporas, Politico reported on Sept. 12.

⚡️Over 150 miners trapped underground at Donetsk Oblast mine due to Russian attacks. https://kyivindependent.com/over-150-miners-trapped-underground-at-mine-in-donetsk-oblast-due-to-russian-attacks/

Russian strikes have cut off power to Dobropillia and nearby settlements, including coal mines. The blackout caused gassing and flooding of the mines.

⚡️Harris would be 'more aggressive https://kyivindependent.com/harris-would-be-more-aggressive-than-biden-in-supporting-ukraine-ex-us-ambassador-says/ ' than Biden in supporting Ukraine, ex-US ambassador says.

⚡️Russia managed to import aircraft tires worth $30 million from Western and other foreign manufacturers last year despite sanctions, The Guardian reported on Sept. 12, citing a report from a Ukrainian agency it had obtained. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-buys-western-aircraft-parts/

⚡️Trump's 'peace plan' could include creation of demilitarized zone between Russia and Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/trumps-peace-plan-could-include-creation-of-demilitarized-zone-between-russia-and-ukraine-vance-says/ Vance says.
Donald Trump could bring Russians, Ukrainians, and Europeans to the negotiating table to "figure out what a peaceful settlement looks like," according to J.D. Vance.

⚡️ Russia expels 6 UK diplomats https://kyivindependent.com/russia-expels-6-uk-diplomats-accusing-them-of-espionage-and-subversion/ accusing them of 'espionage.'

⚡️Canadian film festival halts https://kyivindependent.com/canadian-film-festival-halts-screenings-of-russians-at-war-citing-security-concerns/ screenings of 'Russians at War,' citing security concerns.

⚡️SBU, National Police arrest https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-national-police-detain-5-suspects-accused-of-committing-arson-attack-in-kyiv-on-behalf-russian/ 5 suspects accused of committing arson attacks in Kyiv on behalf of Russia

⚡️49 Ukrainians released https://kyivindependent.com/49-ukrainians-released-from-russian-captivity/ from Russian captivity.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 10, injure 41 https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-92/ over past day. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 24 of the 26 Shahed-type drones launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ SEP 13, 2024
More engagements (although below 7-day avg), casualties slightly below avg
■ Another day of massive equipment losses; especially armor (tanks & APVs)
■ 🇺🇦 strikes stay above avg; strike ratio in the low double-digits

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

A meeting between Zelenskyy and Chinese President Xi Jinping is possible, as diplomatic relations between the countries have improved, — Reuters.
At the Xiangshan Security Forum, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Oleksandr Chalyy, said a meeting between Zelenskyy and Xi could take place in October.
The Xiangshan Security Forum is being held in Beijing from September 12 to 14 under the theme “Promoting Peace for a Shared Future.” Ukraine is one of 90 countries and international organizations represented at the forum.

Sweden to Double Civil Defense Budget in Preparation for Wartime
Swedish Minister of Civil Defense, Karl-Oscar Bolin, announced plans to double the country’s civil defense budget over the next three years. This increase aims to ensure Sweden is adequately prepared for potential wartime scenarios.

Ukraine issued a démarche to Mongolia regarding Putin’s visit, — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
A démarche is a formal appeal by one government to another, urging action on a particular issue.
“Ukraine expressed deep disappointment with Mongolia’s refusal, as a signatory of the Rome Statute, to execute the ICC warrant for Putin’s arrest. This decision will impact Ukraine’s future policy on bilateral relations,” the ministry stated.

Approximately 10 million people in Ukraine are at risk of mental disorders, according to media reports citing Hans Kluge, Director of the WHO European Regional Office.
Kluge expressed concern that mental health issues are likely to rise with the coming winter. "Nearly 10 million people in Ukraine are at risk of mental disorders, ranging from mild to severe," he said. He also noted that as the war approaches its third anniversary, the psychological challenges are intensifying, and the prospect of another harsh winter may exacerbate the situation.

Canada to Host Conference on the Release of Prisoners and Deportees in Late October

Putin: Western Strikes on Russian Territory Will Mean NATO’s Direct Involvement in the War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the return of 49 civilians and military personnel from Russian captivity. Among those freed is Leniie Umierova, a young woman who was captured by Russian forces while attempting to care for her ailing father. Additionally, some defenders of "Azovstal" were included in the group of those released.
Ukraine's Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets stated that many of the released individuals are in serious health condition, emphasizing the challenges they endured while in captivity.

Terribly sad clip of an emaciated freed prisoner weeping https://t.me/United24media/25054

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Biden will allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia, but not with American weapons, The Times writes https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/keir-starmer-joe-biden-storm-shadow-missiles-jmq87805n

Sources say that Biden may give the green light to the use of British Storm Shadow missiles and their French counterparts Scalp to strike Russia if the UK and France support such a move.
However, the US does not plan to allow Ukraine to use its longest-range version of ATACMS to avoid further escalation.

🇮🇷 Iran has told https://en.irna.ir/news/85594685/Iran-summons-European-envoys-in-row-over-alleged-missile-transfer European ambassadors that it did not supply ballistic missiles to Russia

Ukrainian underground fighters have blown up Russian Guard soldiers in Yekaterinburg, Russia. There are victims and damaged cars

Putin said that strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russia with long-range weapons would mean direct participation of Western countries in the war, as Ukraine allegedly cannot find targets on its own without Western intelligence.
According to him, if the West helps Ukraine to strike deep into Russia, “the very essence of the conflict will change” and the Kremlin “will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created for us.”

The U.S. has intensified sanctions against Russia's IT sector—major companies are pulling out, MFA of Ukraine reports.
🔹Google blocks new accounts using Russian phone numbers & stops AdSense revenue for Russian bloggers.
🔹Atlassian, Jira, Trello, and Confluence exit Russian market.
🔹Notion is now inaccessible in Russia.
🔹Miro halts service for Russian & Belarusian accounts.
🔹Microsoft begins disconnecting Russian users from cloud services.
🔹Slack stops service in Russia.
🔹CAD systems, Autodesk, SAP & Oracle leave Russia. [I imagine Microsoft removing access to the Cloud and CAD systems and the others will be quite an inconvenience]

❗️Ukraine ranks https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison/ first in the world in terms of mortality and last in the birth rate. These are the data from the US Central Intelligence Agency.
Lithuania is in second place in terms of mortality (15.02), and Serbia is in third place (14.9). Qatar has the lowest mortality rate (1.4). And the Niger is at the top of the birth rate ranking (46.6).

🇪🇺 The EU has lifted https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg_impl/2024/2455/oj sanctions on Yevgeniy Prigozhin's mother Violetta and oligarch Dmitry Mazepin's son, former Formula 1 driver Nikita Mazepin

Kyiv honored the memory of Mattityahu Anton Samborskyi, the son of the Chief Rabbi of Ukraine, who was killed in action while defending the country, at a ceremony held in the Central Synagogue of Kyiv https://t.me/liveukraine_media/24380

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

⚡️Shoigu visited North Korea on September 13 and was received by Kim Jong-un, the Russian Security Council reports.

Russia is producing a new kamikaze drone with a maximum flight range of 1,500 km — Reuters
The agency, citing sources, reports that the production of the "Harpy-A1" attack drone, equipped with Chinese engines and parts, began last year.
Over 2,500 such drones have been manufactured in a year.

Short range Iranian missiles will likely be used by Russia to decimate the cities of Southern and Eastern Ukraine, allowing Russians to focus on destroying Kyiv and other large cities with more powerful North Korean and Russian variants.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38890

In Russian occupied Mariupol, an ammunition and air defense missile depot was destroyed overnight, according to the mayor’s advisor, Andryushchenko.
Explosions lasted for several hours, finally ending around 5am.

The only Russian Parliament member to vote against Russia's annexation of Crimea is sentenced to 10 years prison in absentia.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38862

Kyiv Post Morning News Roundup for September 13th, 2024
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38908

Once a lively city of 300,000, the southern Ukrainian city Kherson is now a ghost town, with Russians now using small drones to hunt individual civilians in random killings, the streets are abandoned. https://t.me/Kyivpost_official/25451

Trump's 'peace plan' could include creation of demilitarized zone between Russia and Ukraine kyivindependent.com/trumps-peace-plan-could-include-creation-of-demilitarized-zone-between-russia-and-ukraine-vance-says/ Vance says.
Donald Trump could bring Russians, Ukrainians, and Europeans to the negotiating table to "figure out what a peaceful settlement looks like," according to J.D. Vance.

I have no issue with this, as long as the demilitarised zone is mainly in Russia. They were the aggressor after all.

I suspect Trumps view would side with Putin though, and so be of no use, a bit like him.

Trump's definition of Ukraine would probably not include Crimea, or any other Ukrainian land illegally annexed by Putin's regime.

Yes, demilitarise Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov etc. I'm sure that the nice chap Mr Putin will have no objection.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-12-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces continued counterattacking throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on September 12 but made only marginal gains, likely due to continued Ukrainian offensive operations and defensive counterattacks in the area.
• Russian forces have so far advanced in areas of Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces were not yet fully controlling nor attempting to control, and Russian forces will likely face more difficulty when counterattacking further into areas of the salient where Ukrainian forces do have control.
• A Ukrainian HIMARS strike reportedly damaged a temporary pontoon bridge across the Seym River and wounded a group of nearby Russian troops on September 12.
• Russian authorities have reportedly deployed additional elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast and may begin redeploying more combat experienced forces to support ongoing Russian counterattacks and future counteroffensive operations against Ukrainian forces in Russia.
• The United Kingdom (UK) will reportedly allow Ukraine to use UK-provided long-range Storm Shadow missiles to strike military objects in Russia in the coming days.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues rhetorical efforts aimed at influencing the ongoing Western policy debate about granting Ukraine permission to use Western-provided weapons against military objects in Russia, although Russia has not previously escalated militarily against perceived Western violations of Russia's "red lines."
• Russian forces struck a civilian cargo ship transiting through the Ukrainian grain corridor in the western Black Sea on September 11, likely as part of a renewed Russian effort to undermine international confidence in the safety of the corridor.
• Russia continued its efforts to enhance relations with non-Western countries at the meeting of BRICS high-ranking security officials and advisors in St. Petersburg.
• Iran and Russia are downplaying their disagreement over the Zangezur Corridor project in the Caucasus.
• Russia is continuing to balance its relationships with Iran and the Gulf states.
• Russian investigative outlet Dossier Center published an investigation on September 12 into the Kremlin's efforts to consolidate its influence over the Russian information space via Telegram ahead of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced north of Chasiv Yar, southeast of Pokrovsk, and west of Donetsk City.
• Former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and Zaporizhia Oblast occupation senator Dmitry Rogozin claimed on September 12 that the first group of the newly-formed "BARS-Sarmat" volunteer detachment (Russian Combat Army Reserve) signed military service contracts with the Russian MoD and are training for deployment to the frontline in Ukraine.

What are the real red lines for Putin of any?

Are Putin's warnings against allowing NATO supplies missiles to strike Russian territory real or just an extension of his previous rhetoric? It does seem like a moment where we are who blinks first.

If Ukriane does use western missiles to hit Russia Putin will look weak surely given the non equivocal nature of his comments?

If the West doesn't allow missiles to be used then Russia has gained a large psychological victory as well as military advantage and the West will look like it has stalled at the last minute.

Personally and I hope I am wrong (probably am) but there are not who cries wolf vibes about this. Someone really has to try and understand how Putin thinks and how his rhetoric marches his actions.

Are we assuming that Biden has shat it? Doesn’t look like there’s been an agreement on the use of long range weapons. Either that or they’ve got intelligence that the red lines might be real this time?

It's looking that way yes

Interesting isn't it?

I think intelligence may suggest this a is a red line and I guess we lent find out how it was acquired. Personally I don't think it's a great look for the West as we have used the boiling frog strategy of incrementally increasing military support with great success so why stop now? Ukraine has made it abundantly clear the allowance of such weapon use is an important part of their defence so why not allow it?

I don't think we want Putin to know the nuclear sabre rattling works (and I think this is part of it in reality) and in maybe stepping back we are giving Putin free rein to try again. The guy smells weakness and punces, it's in his nature.

No one can predict, with any clarity or certainty, how mad Putin AND his enablers really are. This feels like the brink of potentially truly catastrophic danger.

Guardian reported this on its livefeed a little while ago. I am really, really worried. (Beyond my normal state of just really worried.)

Russia's Medvedev threatens to turn Kyiv into 'giant melted spot'
Senior Russian security official and former president Dmitry Medvedev said on Saturday Russia could destroy Ukraine’s capital Kyiv with non-nuclear weapons in response to the use of western long-range missiles by Ukraine.
Medvedev said Moscow already had formal grounds to use nuclear weapons since Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, but could instead use some of its new weapon technologies to reduce Kyiv to “a giant melted spot” when its patience runs out.
“Holy shit! It’s impossible, but it happened,” he wrote in English on the Telegram messaging app.

Personally and I hope I am wrong (probably am) but there are not who cries wolf vibes about this. Someone really has to try and understand how Putin thinks and how his rhetoric marches his actions

I suspect a lot of clever people try but because they are fundamentally not culturally Russian, they really don't understand and therefore their assessments are not really accurate.

The older I get the more I believe that the culture you grow up in profoundly influences your thought patterns, assumptions and reactions.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress I so agree with you. But I'm afraid I would add this - I'm a retired psychotherapist - in my experience (yes, only mine, and I'm as limited, biased, and blinkered as anyone else) no one even truly understands themselves, let alone anyone else, let alone a creature as alien to most of us as Putin.

I apologise, I am very, very gloomy this morning.

Listening to the BBC there was a diplomat amazed that the president of the most powerful nation in the world would allow speculation about allowing Ukraine to use weaponry against Russian assets is Russia then back out after a high profile meeting with the UK primenisiter when announcements were expected.

The only conclusion was that must have been intelligence that there was a realistic possibility of Russia doing something really stupid if this course of action as allowed to take place. By stupid I mean an actual action against a NATO state. Biden couldn't risk it.
I think maybe it was one of the moments unfortunately where we have stopped a possible route to nuclear war. I don't think any other rationale can explain why we aren't allowing Ukraine full freedom with the weaponry.

Not a psychotherapist, psychologist or psychiatrist but I think the same.

I do think that someone like Putin genuinely understands his own driving factors less than many though!

This is all so depressing. Putin once again is free to pummel Ukraine (and now has Iranian ballistic missiles to do it more effectively) whilst we cower because he's basically blackmailing the Western World into submission. Yes I get why it might be necessary but where does it stop? With Ukraine or the next country he decides needs denazifying 🤷‍♀️

Oh my goodness yes! No true insight into himself at all. Insight should sober one up, not encourage hubris and self-aggrandizement.

As so very often I am reminded of Yeats' most powerful poem and what, for me, are possibly its most powerful lines.

         <span class="italic"> The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere</span>

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Now that seems much too apposite.

He wrote it immediately post WW1 and during the 1918-19 flu pandemic, in which his pregnant wife nearly died.

Something of a diversion from the thread, but I love Yeat's poem The Stolen Child set to music by the Waterboys. It's narrated by an old fisherman.

My favourite poem about death, written by Rupert Brooke who wrote it, and died himself, in the Great War. It seems much too apposite too for Ukraine at the moment.

These hearts were woven of human joys and cares,
Washed marvellously with sorrow, swift to mirth.
The years had given them kindness. Dawn was theirs,
And sunset, and the colours of the earth.
These had seen movement, and heard music; known
Slumber and waking; loved; gone proudly friended;
Felt the quick stir of wonder; sat alone;
Touched flowers and furs and cheeks. All this is ended.

There are waters blown by changing winds to laughter
And lit by the rich skies, all day. And after,
Frost, with a gesture, stays the waves that dance
And wandering loveliness. He leaves a white
Unbroken glory, a gathered radiance,
A width, a shining peace, under the night.