Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Live: Ukraine Telegram highlights

Russian media report that an explosion and fire broke out at the Ryazan Power Plant in Novomichurinsk

In the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, the entrance to the city of Kurchatov, where the Kursk nuclear power plant is located, has been restricted. Checkpoints will be set up on the roads.
The acting governor of Kursk region, Aleksey Smirnov, said that this was done allegedly because the Ukrainian Armed Forces "do not give up trying to enter the city."

Belarusian Air Forces have used fighter jet to shot down Russian Shahed drones that entered its airspace, - Belaruski Gayun Telegram channel

“Too political”: The International Paralympic Committee refused to approve Ukraine’s team uniform for over two months.

Pokrovsk
The last days of an empty park. Soon the "Russian world" will touch the city and everything on the photo will cease to exist.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

EXPLAINED: Trump vs Harris – What Would It Mean for Ukraine?
As America decides and Ukraine’s fate hangs in the balance, Kyiv Post’s Jeremy Dirac fills you in on some of the things to know about the candidates for US president.

Now burning for 15 hours, the fires at the Atlas oil storage complex in Russia's Rostov region are only growing, a smoke stream now stretching 30km.

Unceasing Russian missile and drine attacks across Ukraine as Ukrainian air defense forces intercepted 60 out of 74 strike UAVs and downed 2 out of 3 Kh-59/69 missiles across multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Sumy, and Donetsk.

Since Ukraine began receiving ATACMS missiles, Russia has relocated 90% of its aircraft beyond the range of these missiles, according to The Wall Street Journal. This relocation implies that using these missiles on Russian territory will have a limited impact.

Um, I think that’s a slightly simple almost dismissive take on it by the WSJ.

Even if you can’t hit the airframes anything that forces the Russian Air Force into longer transit times to operating areas, burn more fuel, slows response time, put hours on creaking on airframes, etc etc, is a good thing.

There are also many other good targets. Moving the planes is relevent, but only one aspect of how Ukraine could use the ATACMS

Even if you can’t hit the airframes anything that forces the Russian Air Force into longer transit times to operating areas, burn more fuel, slows response time, put hours on creaking on airframes, etc etc, is a good thing.

It's a very good thing. To make it clearer, if the planes are adding 300 miles round trip to get from their bases in Russia, instead of four sorties per day, they're reduced to two or possibly three round trips to bomb Ukrainian positions and infrastructure. So there's a very real reduction in the threat.

An F16 crashed Monday. Pilot error or mechanical problem, they think.

Yes and I see one of their top pilots was killed which is awful.

The WSJ has coverage of what's known about the incident. The pilot was one of two who came to Washington to lobby for the jets.

U.S.-Made F-16 Crashed in Ukraine, Killing Pilot - Kyiv recently received six of the planes to boost its fight against Russia, symbolizing U.S. support

They'll know a lot more once the wreckage has been examined.

Oh that is awful :(

heh.

Russian authorities arrested and charged former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Pavel Popov with large-scale fraud on August 29. (ISW)

Popov was one of the effective, good generals. He criticised the handling of the war though, and stood up for his troops and was sidelined.

Sky News reporting that the F16 was destroyed and pilot killed in friendly fire which is very tragic and will raise questions.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Updated: WSJ reports F-16 crash, Ukraine's Air Force announces death of pilot. https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-f-16-crash-report/

⚡️Ukraine's Air Force says US has joined https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-air-force-says-us-has-joined-investigation-into-deadly-f-16-crash/ investigation into deadly F-16 crash.

Fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian troops in the Pokrovsk sector of Donetsk Oblast is "exceptionally brutal," Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Aug. 29. https://kyivindependent.com/fighting-near-pokrovsk-exceptionally-brutal-syrskyi-says/
The most intense fighting in the Pokrovsk sector is taking place on the eastern outskirts of the village of Hrodivka, along the border of Kamianyi Yar and Krasnyi Yar, and near Mykhailivka, located on the way to Selydove. The battle is also ongoing in the town of Novohrodivka, according to Syrskyi.

The European Union will speed up the delivery of weapons and equipment for Ukraine's energy system, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said after an informal meeting with EU counterparts in Brussels on Aug. 29. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-to-speed-up-weapons-and-energy-equipment-deliveries-to-ukraine-kuleba-says/

⚡️Ukraine receiving shells from Prague-led initiative on schedule, Czech foreign minister says. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-deliveries-on-schedule/

⚡️Putin to visit https://kyivindependent.com/putin-to-visit-icc-member-mongolia-next-week/ ICC member Mongolia next week.
The visit will mark Putin's first trip to an ICC member country that has ratified the Rome Statute. The agreement calls on member nations to arrest Putin if he enters their territory.

⚡️Chinese banks stopping https://kyivindependent.com/chinese-banks-stopping-transactions-with-russia-en-masse-reuters-reports/ transactions with Russia 'en masse,' Reuters reports.
Chinese banks are shutting down transactions with Russia "en masse," with delays in payments intensifying during August, Reuters reported on Aug. 30, citing sources familiar with the matter.

⚡️Russian authorities form armed volunteer 'security' units https://kyivindependent.com/russian-authorities-form-armed-volunteer-security-units-in-kursk-amid-ukraines-incursion/ in Kursk amid Ukraine's incursion.

Sergei Mikhailov, the publisher of the independent newspaper Listok in Russia's Altai Republic, was sentenced to eight years in prison on Aug. 30 for "spreading fakes" about the Russian Army. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-journalist-sentenced-to-8-years-in-prison-for-publishing-stories-about-bucha-massacre/

⚡️Russian troops reportedly leave Burkina Faso due to Kursk incursion. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-reportedly-leave-burkina-faso/

⚡️Serbia signs $3 billion deal for French fighter jets https://kyivindependent.com/serbia-signs-3-billion-deal-for-french-fighter-jets-in-shift-away-from-moscow/ in shift away from Moscow.

⚡️76% of Ukrainians consider all Russians responsible for invasion, poll says. https://kyivindependent.com/poll-ukrainians-russia-responsible/

NABU scandal deepens: Deputy chief slams https://kyivindependent.com/top-ukrainian-anti-corruption-officials-bump-heads-deepening-crisis-at-key-agency/ boss after recommendation on his ouster
The future of Ukraine's top anti-corruption agency hung in the balance as its second-in-command lashed out at his boss after a disciplinary commission recommended firing or reprimanding him.
The decision by NABU’s chief on whether to fire or reprimand his deputy could be a crucial test for the anti-corruption agency.

⚡️Ukrainian swimmers win first 4 medals at Paris Paralympics. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-swimmers-win-first-4-medals-at-paris-paralympics/

⚡️Russian attacks https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-4/ over past day kill 2, wound 32.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ - AUG 30, 2024
Record number of engagements & casualties above avg
■ Drone losses stay high ■ Ratio of visually confirmed losses has been narrowing
■ Fewer 🇷🇺 strikes & more 🇺🇦 strikes; best daily ratio in close to two weeks

Oh no, @Igotjelly ... if true, how utterly awful

UNITED24 Media Telegram

A meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Budapest next month may be canceled due to growing resentment among member states over the Hungarian government’s favorable attitude toward Russia, according to Politico.
Paschal Donohoe, Ireland’s Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform, who is set to chair the meeting, will decide by next week whether it will take place or not.

The US Army ordered a record batch of FGM-148 "Javelin" ATGMs from Raytheon and Lockheed Martin in the amount of $1.3 billion, — a statement from the manufacturers.
4,000 missiles from this contract will be delivered to Ukraine first.

🇭🇺 Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto, flew to Russia just a day after the EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels.

Russian Airstrikes Hit Civilian and Industrial Sites in Sumy and Poltava Regions

Removal of Restrictions on Ukraine’s Strikes on Russian Territory: Each EU State Will Decide for Itself
“Ultimately, the bottom line is that this is an individual state’s decision, and the member states want it to continue to be an individual state’s decision. Each of them will make the decision they think is appropriate,” he added.

Ukraine can use our weapons only on Ukrainian territory, and other countries should decide as they see fit, said Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani

🇪🇺 The EU will soon reach 60,000 trained Ukrainian soldiers, possibly “as soon as tomorrow,” according to German Defense Secretary Thomas Hitschler.

Ukraine has successfully returned 14 children with their families from the occupied territories, according to Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets.
One of the families made several attempts to leave the temporarily occupied territory (TOT) on their own but was repeatedly forced to return. Another family had to hide from the Russians due to their pro-Ukrainian stance.
Now in safety, these Ukrainians report that they were afraid to go outside, couldn’t find jobs without Russian passports, and faced threats of having their parental rights revoked. They also experienced searches, with Ukrainian books being burned by the occupiers and valuable property confiscated.

The 81st International Film Festival in Venice has begun, and Ukraine will present two films outside the competition program.
The films are:

• "Songs of the Slowly Burning Land" by Olga Zhurba: This film delves into the events of the Russian war against Ukraine and examines the transformation of society in the face of such conflict. Zhurba aims to evoke a deep understanding of the threat that extends beyond Ukraine, impacting the entire world.
• "Honeymoon" by Zhanna Ozirnaya: This film also centers on the war. It follows a couple in love who spend their first night in a new apartment near Kyiv, only to be awakened by the explosions of war at dawn.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The EU has prepared about 700,000 artillery shells for Ukraine out of the promised million, while the industry continues to gain momentum, says EU chief diplomat Borrell

Dmitry Medvedev shared an elaborate post (which took him nearly a week to craft), where he lays out the reasons behind Russia's ruthless tactics in seizing Donbas, even if it means levelling cities and sacrificing hundreds of thousands lives.
According to him, Donbas holds mineral resources valued at $7.3 trillion, a sum that, in Putin's eyes, justifies the loss of a few hundred thousand Russian lives (multiplied by 5 million rubles of payments per corpse, that's still nothing)

🇱🇹Lithuanian FM Landsbergis: "Russian planes are better protected by the Western guarantees than Ukrainians."

Blaze expands at oil depot in Russia's Kamensky district, Rostov Oblast
The fire is now in its second day following a Ukrainian drone strike early yesterday morning.

Relatives of prisoners of war gathered near the Kyiv office of the International Committee of the Red Cross to demand an explanation as to why the families have no information about the military
The Media Initiative for Human Rights explains that the ICRC is the only one with a mandate to visit places where prisoners of war are held. But they can do so only with the permission of the prison, detention center or colony administration, which the Russians do not give.

Natalia Kuznietsova, a soldier of the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade a.k.a "Iranka," died defending Ukraine
A year ago she lost her husband Viktor Panasko who died in the battle for Bakhmut.

Forever in the sky
In this photo, our pilots Andriy Pilshchykov “ Juice ‘ and Oleksiy Mes ’ Moonfish ” - they were the ones who actively lobbied for Ukraine to receive F-16.
”Juice” died on August 25, 2023 🕯
“Moonfish” died on August 26, 2024 🕯

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

⚡️The Russian government abruptly announces that oil and fuel production numbers will now be a state secret.

Starting on January 1, 2025, the Druzhba oil pipeline, which transfers Russian oil to Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia through Ukraine, will cease to operate —
Podolyak,Office of the President of Ukraine

“We want Ukraine to win the war and are doing everything possible to achieve this goal,”
While Ukraine's other allies tiptoe around Putin's delicate feelings, Netherlands confirms the authorization for the use of F-16's on Russian territory.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38134

Ukrainian Forces destroyed a Russian "Sapphire" electronic warfare complex in Kursk.

An overnight Russian airstrike on Sumy resulted in 11 civilian victims.
Two women were killed, their bodies discovered beneath the rubble of the destruction, while another eight people were injured.

Oh heartbreaking😓

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces are currently pursuing two immediate tactical efforts as part of their ongoing offensive operation to seize Pokrovsk — a tactical effort along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line east of Pokrovsk to seize Myrnohrad and advance up to Pokrovsk's outskirts, and another tactical effort along the Selydove-Ukrainsk-Hirnyk line southeast of Pokrovsk aimed at widening Russia's salient in the Pokrovsk direction and eliminating vulnerabilities to Ukrainian counterattacks.
• The Russian military command likely aims to achieve both of these tactical efforts before launching the more resource-intensive effort to seize Pokrovsk itself, although Russian forces may begin urban combat in Pokrovsk regardless, if progress stalls on these preparatory efforts.
• Russian authorities are creating new volunteer territorial defense units in response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, highlighting Russian President Vladimir Putin's unwillingness to counter the incursion more seriously with a mobilization due to the risks of societal discontent or with large-scale redeployments due to possible disruptions to Russia's ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced north of Sudzha as Russian forces recaptured some areas of Kursk Oblast on August 29.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 29 that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet recently crashed while defending against a large-scale Russian drone and missile strike.
• Russian authorities arrested and charged former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Pavel Popov with large-scale fraud on August 29.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will conduct an official visit to Mongolia despite Mongolia's status as a signatory to the Rome Statue and Mongolia’s legal obligation to enforce an arrest warrant for Putin from the International Criminal Court (ICC).
• The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed on August 29 that Ukrainian forces struck the Atlas Oil Refinery in Rostov Oblast and the Zenit Oil Depot in Kirov Oblast on the night of August 27 to 28.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
• The Russian government continues to expand pathways for accused criminals to sign military service contracts.

The US Army ordered a record batch of FGM-148 "Javelin" ATGMs from Raytheon and Lockheed Martin in the amount of $1.3 billion, — a statement from the manufacturers. 4,000 missiles from this contract will be delivered to Ukraine first.

With inflation, the average Javelin cost is currently $300k. That is exactly 4,000 missiles. All the missiles will go to Ukraine then, not 'first'.

Think that’s wait and see, TBH.

Z has fired the chief of the Air Force so not sure if that’s because there has been a total stuff up and it has indeed been a “blue on blue” or it’s a political move, perhaps losing one of a slack handful of very valuable assets means somebody had to go….

Flying an F-16 and similar era fighters isn’t exactly risk free even in peacetime (many would find Cold War accident figures and accident rates mind boggling..). Low hours on type will raise the risk even more, then in terms of Ukraine add in the environment, possibly operating dispersed from less than ideal runways and there’s plenty of scope for what might be described as an old fashioned genuine accident.

Natalia Kuznietsova, a soldier of the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade a.k.a "Iranka," died defending Ukraine. A year ago she lost her husband Viktor Panasko who died in the battle for Bakhmut.

In WW2, many families lost their fathers, mothers, sons and daughters fighting against Nazism and the inevitable genocide if they did not prevail. Husband and wife, dying together. Sons dying together on the front line. Hollywood made a film about it. Russia may have done too.

I was in a west country village last week and the same surnames are repeated on the war memorial there. Bates x 3, Turner x 2, Aiden x 2. The same pattern is evident in every other village I visited. Families giving up not one but two or more.

I am not aware of any Russian sense of community over Ukraine . They keep sending out rapists, murderers and boys from poor families to do the dirty work for the cowards in the Kremlin. Nameless, non-achievers, not even in graves unmarked but many just left to rot in the fields.

Putin is the worst thing that happened to Russia. With lions like Viktor and Natalia how are Putin's chickens really going to win?

(many would find Cold War accident figures and accident rates mind boggling..)

There's a reason why the RAF and Royal Navy used to operate Search And Rescue flights rather than leaving it to the Coastguard. The primary purpose in the early days was rescuing their own aircrews. Helping out civilians was just something they did if they were free.

possibly operating dispersed from less than ideal runways @notimagain there are rumours they are using roads instead of runways, mainly to ensure that Russia has little idea where they are.

@Thurien welcome .. yeah, now you mention it, there are often entire families killed aren't there, at least the males. Must be the same in Russia now.

Unfortunately Ukrainian victory is far from certain. Russia is sending enormous numbers of troops, badly organised and often badlky provisioned but still, moving bodies. In the West only about half the equipment promised arrives on time and in good condition, and there are still the destructive red lines about not allowing strikes within Russia.

The West needs the US atm and without the US Ukraine would be in a far worse situation, but one of the advantages of at least the Eastern European countries (Poland especially) starting to heavily rearm is that at some point we will be a lot less reliant on the US and their permissions. If the EU can stop arguing and squabbling and thinking short-term. Ukraine is creating its own long distance missiles and drone/missiles, but it's taking time.

It's been a long war and it's going to carry on being a long war, probably :(

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30-2024

Key Takeaways:

• European Union (EU) member state officials continue to express divergent views about Ukraine's ability to use European-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian and Russian forces made marginal gains in Kursk Oblast on August 30.
• Russian state-owned polling agencies are recognizing limited upticks in Russian domestic discontent towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian authorities amid the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
• Venezuela extradited Colombian citizens who fought as members of the Ukrainian military to Russia, demonstrating growing Russian-Venezuelan cooperation and Venezuelan support for Russia's war.
• Hungary and Russia continue to deepen their bilateral cooperation.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk as Ukrainian Air Force Commander on August 30.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
• French outlet Le Monde reported on August 30 that about 100 mercenaries from the Russian "Bear Brigade" private military company departed Burkina Faso to join Russian forces fighting in Kursk Oblast.

This is probably absolutely not true but I just saw a comment on Twitter that said WTF Lavrov dead ? No other comments and I can't find anything else