Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

✈️ The U.S. military has assisted in enhancing the electronic warfare (EW) systems on the F-16 fighters provided to Ukraine by its allies, according to the U.S. Air Force's 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing.
The upgrades were carried out by engineers from the 68th Electronic Warfare Squadron, in collaboration with Norwegian and Danish partners.

🇳🇴 Security services from seven European countries have warned of the threat of Russian sabotage at Norway's energy facilities. Norway is currently Europe's largest supplier of natural gas.

North Korea may have also provided Russia with 122-mm artillery shells, as well as mobile anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles.
The report states, "To prepare for a protracted war in Ukraine, Russia has officially registered North Korea as a base for weapons and ammunition supplies."

Fedorov noted that "Palianytsia" will enable Ukraine to strike deep into Russian rear positions without needing permission from Western allies. The long range missile-drone has a range of up to 700 kilometers, comparable to the American ATACMS missiles.

According to Defense Express, the Shahed-136 drone can stay in the air over Ukraine for 6.5 to 12.5 hours, depending on the launch site and actual flight range.
The drone has a cruising speed of 180 km/h and an estimated flight range of 1,500 km, giving it an average flight time of about 8.5 hours. However, Western sources suggest a longer flight range of up to 2,500 km, which could allow it to stay in the air for up to 14 hours.
Taking into account the time needed for the drone to reach Ukrainian airspace, its potential time circling over Ukraine ranges from 6.5 to 12.5 hours

The transfer of Polish MiG fighters to Ukraine depends on the delivery of new aircraft ordered from the United States, but these F-35s won't reach the Polish military until 2026, according to Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, as reported by the Wirtualna Polska portal.

An attack on any nuclear power plant is unacceptable, regardless of its location, said the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi after a visit to the Kursk NPP.
Meanwhile, ZNPP is under occupation for more than two years.

In Kherson, the enemy fired at an ambulance brigade rushing to help the wounded, injuring three medical workers, reported Roman Mrochko, head of the city's military administration.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️Belarus is moving a large amount of military equipment, including tanks and BMPs, to the border with Ukraine

The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is at risk of a “nuclear incident,” says IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi.
The reason for the threat is the lack of a protective dome at the plant.

🔥 Drones attacked the Atlas oil refinery in the Rostov Oblast of Russia. There is a large-scale fire there
Atlas provided fuel to Russian military units deployed in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

🇵🇱 Poland plans to increase defense budget to 4.7% of GDP in 2025 and spend $14 billion more than in 2024 - Money pl

Lukashenko complained that the West was trying to persuade him to fight with NATO against Russia

A serviceman of the 30th Governor's Regiment with the call sign "Kupol" (Dome) is furious at the fact that soldiers in home regions of Russia, despite fighting real battles and talking heavy casualties are only getting paid £268 (34,000 RUB) instead of the full £1650+ (200,000 RUB) like those Russians fighting in Ukraine https://t.me/liveukraine_media/23881

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russian channels report Ukrainian Forces attempting breakthrough into Belgorod.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38038

North Korea Tests New Multiple Launch Rocket System — DW
According to North Korean media, the launcher allegedly has a 240 mm caliber and is equipped with an advanced control system.
There is a possibility that North Korea is testing artillery and cruise missiles to later send them to Russia for use in the war against Ukraine

At a closed meeting, representatives of Norway, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden and Iceland discussed the risks of sabotage by Russia. [regarding the potential threat of Russian sabotage of Norway's energy facilities]

Zelensky reports that Russia intends to sacrifice another 60,000 of its soldiers in effort to occupy Pokrovsk.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38063

Kyiv Post Morning News Roundup for August 28th, 2024
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38060

Ukraine's long dormant domestic cotton industry set for explosive growth as the basis for the extraction of nitrocellulose, a key ingredient in the manufacture of gunpowder.
Zelensky signs new law streamlining new farming operations.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38062

Wtf is Belarus playing at?! Or rather Lukashenko

Good article here about the F16s being deployed in an air defense role, and it covers the EW upgrades being done by the USAF.

Ukraine’s F-16s Have Scored Their First Aerial Kills - The nimble jets reportedly shot down Russian cruise missiles on Monday.

Hopefully, their use in air to ground roles will come soon.

@Mb76 I can't see any news about Lukashenko, what is it you've seen?

It's probably this:

Ukraine issued a warning to Belarus amid the recent buildup of Belarusian forces at the Ukrainian border in Belarus' Gomel Oblast.

The current Belarusian build-up along the Ukrainian border is likely intended to divert and stretch Ukrainian forces along a wider frontline, as ISW continues to assess that Belarusian forces remain unlikely to invade Ukraine due to constraints facing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

I think they're doing it as a favor to Putin in hopes Ukraine will take troops from elsewhere to reinforce the border with Belarus. Like the ISW, I doubt they want an actual fight with the Ukrainians. It would not end well for them.

There is a big build up of military equipment on the border between Ukraine and Belarus, questions currently about whether they plan to join the invasion.

Sorry @MissConductUS cross post!

Thank you both @Igotjelly and @MissConductUS and bloody hell, yes I hadn't registered that that was happening. Grim.

You're welcome, @heldinadream. I don't think the Ukrainians are terribly worried. Provoking a war with Ukraine would cause huge unrest within Belarus, and their forces would get the arses kicked into next week by the Ukrainians, so it's a lose-lose move for Lukashenko. It would leave him vulnerable to a clue, with little protection from his military.

Sorry, coup, not clue.

Ah yes I was referring to these bits @DucklingSwimmingInstructress posted earlier today, sorry for the confusion

Belarus is moving a large amount of military equipment, including tanks and BMPs, to the border with Ukraine

and

Lukashenko complained that the West was trying to persuade him to fight with NATO against Russia

The Ukrainians seem rather more worried about the build up of troops along the border than they have at any point until now, but they don't seem to be fearing an invasion imminently.

Yes it’s very annoying. I think it’s an intimidation tactic. Ukrainians know Belarus is not likely to invade but they can’t ignore this either.

The press keeps talking about IF Belarus gets involved. To my mind they already are because they’re impacting the battlefield by influencing Ukrainian actions.

I think Lukashenko knows better, perhaps this is to please Putin without going all in which seems to be his MO. I agree surely he wouldn't risk a coup. Unless forced somehow?

Ukraine is reacting because Belarus has moved forces out of their normal operating bases to temporary positions near the border with Ukraine. It's provocative but not worthy of a military response at this point. It's costly for the Belarusians to be forward deployed like that and a logistical challenge, so it's unlikely they'll stay there for long.

Ukraine has had forces guarding the border with Belarus since the Russians were forced out of the area in 2022. One possible mission for NATO or other friendly forces would be to take over those duties, freeing Ukrainian units for front line duties elsewhere.

thanks for the article…nothing quite like getting in a bit of target practice before going out on the two way range

Exactly, and it's good for the Ukrainians to be firing war shots after all of the training they've been through. A real morale booster for everyone.

I suspect those USAF EW boffins must be in Ukraine to install the upgrades.

Edited to add: I've just caught myself using the word "boffins", which is not in American usage at all. I think I've become an honorary Brit. 😁

Boffin is hardcore. @MissConductUS you have always been one of us 😁🇬🇧🇺🇸

One of us now MissConductUS!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-28-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Multiple reports from Western media indicate that the US government is prohibiting the United Kingdom (UK) from allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets in Russia.
• Several Russian milbloggers claimed on August 28 that the tempo of Ukrainian attacks in Kursk Oblast has slowed and that Ukrainian forces are now attempting to dig in and hold select areas they recently seized.
• Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against oil infrastructure in Rostov and Kirov oblasts and reportedly conducted a drone strike against Voronezh Oblast overnight on August 27 to 28.
• The prominent Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram project's continued meetings with Iraqi officials appear to be supporting Iranian-backed Iraqi efforts to gain greater control of their information and media space.
• Kremlin newswire TASS will soon open an office in Iran, supporting Moscow's efforts to deepen its partnership with Tehran.
• Russia's allies appear to be increasingly restricting their transactions with Russian companies and financial institutions amid ongoing concern about the impact of secondary US sanctions.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) reportedly prevented a terrorist attack in the Republic of Ingushetia on August 28.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained positions in the Siversk direction.
• Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, within Toretsk, southeast of Pokrovsk, and northeast of Vuhledar.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly supporting the creation of a new type of combat unit that will specialize in using and countering drones, unmanned systems, and other electronic equipment in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russian forces approaching https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-approaching-town-of-selydove-in-donetsk-oblast-media-says/ town of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast, media reports.

Thirty-eight thousands people and 1,900 children remain in Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast as of Aug. 28, as Russian troops are closing in the town, Governor Vadym Filashkin said on the national television. https://kyivindependent.com/38-000-people-remain-in-pokrovsk-as-situation-in-donetsk-oblast-is-very-difficult-governor-says/

"Good progress has been made, and announcements were made, but again, some Patriot systems were announced and not delivered yet," Kuleba told journalists ahead of an EU ministerial meeting in Brussels. https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-urges-partners-not-to-delay/

⚡️Allies caution Poland to hold back air defense https://kyivindependent.com/allies-caution-poland-to-hold-back-air-defense-pm-tusk-says/ PM Tusk says.

⚡️Bondholders approve https://kyivindependent.com/bondholders-approve-ukraines-20-billion-debt-restructuring/ Ukraine's $20 billion debt restructuring.

⚡️ Russian troops forced to retreat https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-forced-to-retreat-in-vovchansk-after-failed-assault-preparations-ukraine-says/ in Vovchansk after failed assault preparations, Ukraine says.

⚡️Update: Russia controls part of Chasiv Yar but not 40%, military spokesperson corrects https://kyivindependent.com/russia-controls-40-of-chasiv-yar-ukrainian-military-says/ earlier statement. In his correction, Polukhin did not say how much of Chasiv Yar Russian forces control.

⚡️Telegram founder Durov released https://kyivindependent.com/telegram-founder-durov-released-from-custody-transferred-to-french-court-afp-says/ from custody, transferred to French court, AFP reports.

⚡️Telegram CEO and co-founder Pavel Durov was charged in a French court on Aug. 28 with complicity in the distribution of sexual images of children and other crimes, such as drug trafficking through the messaging app, French media outlet BFMTV reported. https://kyivindependent.com/telegram-founder-durov-charged-with-several-crimes-related-to-messaging-app-in-france/

⚡️France issued arrest warrant also for Telegram co-founder, Durov's brother Nikolai, Politico reports. https://kyivindependent.com/france-issued-arrest-warrants-for-pavel-durovs-brothers-back-in-march-politico/

⚡️Ukrainian drones hit oil depot in Russia's Kirov Oblast over 1,200 km away, source confirms. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-hit-oil-depot-in-russias-kirov-oblast-over-1-200-km-from/

An ammunition plant in the Pennsylvania city of Scranton has implemented a 50% increase in the production of 155 mm artillery shells, many of which are sent to Ukraine, government officials said to the press on Aug. 27. https://kyivindependent.com/pennsylvania-munitions-plant-increases-production-of-155mm-shells/

⚡️ Russian crude exports to Hungary and Slovakia remained within norms in July as the sanctioned Lukoil oil was offset by supplies from another Russian company, Tatneft, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 27, citing an undisclosed source. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-oil-flow-to-hungary-slovakia-was-stable-in-july-despite-lukoil-ban-bloomberg-reports/

On August 28, Lithuania delivered loaders, anti-drone systems, and folding beds to Ukraine as part of a new military aid package. https://kyivindependent.com/military-aid-package-from-lithuania-arrives-in-ukraine/

⚡️Russia demands https://kyivindependent.com/russia-demands-clearer-position-from-iaea-on-situation-at-kursk-nuclear-power-plant/ 'clearer position' from UN nuclear watchdog on situation at Kursk nuclear plant.
A day prior, Rafael Grossi, the director of the IAEA, visited the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant following allegations from Russian President Vladimir Putin and other officials that Ukraine has tried – or intends to try – to attack the plant amid the ongoing Ukrainian incursion in the area.

Four nuclear power units at two different power plans were disconnected during Russia's mass aerial strike on Ukraine on Aug. 26, the Presidential Office head, Andriy Yermak, said on Aug. 29. https://kyivindependent.com/4-nuclear-power-units-disconnected-after-russias-aug-26-strike-on-ukraine/

⚡️Russia permanently bans https://kyivindependent.com/russia-permanently-bans-92-individuals-including-journalists-from-prominent-us-based-newspapers/ 92 individuals, including journalists from prominent US-based newspapers.

⚡️Russian guided bomb attack on Kupiansk injures https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack/ at least 11.
⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 5, injure 43 https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-85/ over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ AUG 29, 2024
■ Record number of engagements & casualties above 7-day average
■ Equipment losses below average but good special equipment losses
■ Strikes on both sides below average but ratio could be better

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Since Ukraine began receiving ATACMS missiles, Russia has relocated 90% of its aircraft beyond the range of these missiles, according to The Wall Street Journal. This relocation implies that using these missiles on Russian territory will have a limited impact. Additionally, the United States currently refuses to lift restrictions on strikes deep into Russian territory.

General Onno Eichelsheim of the Royal Netherlands Air Force stated that Ukraine can use the F-16 fighter jets provided by the Netherlands for strikes on Russian territory.

Banks of the UAE block payments by Russian companies for Chinese electronics, — the Russian publication Kommersant.
As a representative of a large Russian electronics distributor told the publication, the Russians used companies in the UAE to pay off Chinese suppliers and send equipment to Russia. According to this scheme, about 10-20% of all laptops were imported into the Russian Federation
However, UAE banks have recently stopped making payments following the Chinese banks. In both cases, this was due to the risk of secondary sanctions.

Starting in December, the Ukrainian military will have access to new dry rations, including kosher and halal options, according to the Ministry of Defense. These new rations are designed to accommodate the religious, medical, and ethical needs of the troops.
Currently, consultations are underway with religious communities, nutrition experts, and other stakeholders to develop and approve the range of options.

Putin is expected to launch a counteroffensive to retake the territory in the Kursk region currently controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to CIA Deputy Director David Cohen, as quoted by Reuters. Cohen noted that this would likely be an uphill battle for the Russians.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has scheduled hearings on the merits of Ukraine's 2016 lawsuit against Russia, in which Ukraine accuses Russia of violating the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait. These hearings are set to take place from September 23 to October 5, 2024.

Lithuania has delivered a new package of military aid to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, including:

• 155-mm ammunition
• M577 and M113 armored personnel carriers
• Unmanned aerial systems
• Winter equipment and warm clothing
• Ammunition for the Carl Gustav anti-tank grenade launcher
• RISE-1 remote detonation systems
• Generators
• Components for the L-39ZA "Albatross" light attack aircraft
• Loaders and trailers
• Folding beds
• Other auxiliary equipment

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Lithuania has provided Ukraine with EUR 647 million in aid.