Thread 51 Sunak: A William Hill to die on

[DuncinToffee]

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https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5100698-thread-50-sunak-civil-war-what-civil-war?page=40&reply=136272126

10 days to go

Our constituency is now predicted a 83% change of Lib Dem win. It would be great if Labour could come second,

@prettybird re migration YES . It's often struck me that people who have the energy and initiative to move to a different country have a lot to offer the country they move to. It's a no brainer.

I do wish they would have a rule in these debates that, if you talk over your opponent, the opponent automatically gets a minute more to speak every time.

I have to admit I too have contributed to the lack of viewing numbers. I couldn't thole watching any of them . I've just seen the extracts on the various news items and on Twitter.

I wish they’d use a really tough facilitator. Jeremy Paxman or John Humphrys in their heyday would have put a stop to all the talking over and shouting down.

Re: Jovan Owusu Nepaul who we were talking about yesterday. He has been told not to campaign in Clacton and instead sent to the West Midlands to do so.

How utterly bizarre.

www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/26/labour-not-putting-up-a-fight-against-farage-in-clacton

I just wondered - did we ever find out what the protest outside was about last night? It seems to have slipped everyone's mind and was quite irritating but they obviously were trying to make a point, presumably anti-Tory who are in charge, so I do feel it's being conveniently overlooked...

I will be glad to see the end of the debates. The awful rubbish that is churned out on SM after them is just mind boggling🤯 that stupid tax checker and the awful memes.
Not long to go, keeping my fingers crossed that the there are no fuck ups from the LP before polling day.
Polls are all over the place for my constituency. I am going with who I think will be my best MP. We have had a lot of hustings here and I think still one or two to go.

Similar has happened in my area. It's the ming vase thing. I don't know if the claim it's detracting from Starmers social media is fair. There might be a bunch of factors at play.

But I have never known a centralized campaign like it. And I have campaigned for Labour in hopeless seats for years. We always get asked to go to more winnable seats or phone bank, but this time they are literally making local campaigning impossible in our non-target seat. Although locally we think it's at least marginal as the Tory incumbent is v unpopular although it will need a huge swing. But we get no say. Campaign HQ are literally denying us access to internal polling data or social media resources to share and our candidate has been redeployed.

I am trying to be philosophical. I lived through the Corbyn years when the CLP was an even split of Holocaust deniers and single issue voters all on a different single issue. So frankly a bit of campaign discipline is welcome but it's understandable people in Clacton are demoralized

The Clacton candidate is clearly earmarked for a safer seat in 2029, for him winning Clacton wd be a double edged sword as he'd likely lose his seat next time.

I thought the IHT threashold is 40% on anything over £325k pp - so most homes in SE - I did a will recently and had to have my home valued.

Apparently Gaza.

Ah that explains why everyone was ignoring it then 😢

It’s £325k plus £175k if you’re a single home owner leaving your house to your direct descendants. That doubles up for a couple.

And re IHT, just to be clear, even if the spouse died many years before, it still gets added to the recently deceased person's estate.

My mum died in 2012 and my dad last year ; the house was valued at £450k and the rest of the estate is worth nowhere near £550k so there will be no IHT payable.

Barring a few small bequests, it's been left to db and me, with a small proportion to the grandchildren. I'd still rather have my dad around

IHT has been raised to £500,000 if you leave your home to your children. There's no IHT to pay if you pass your home to your husband, wife or civil partner when you die.

I also found it irritating that the only answer Sunak had for the young woman was stamp duty, even when Mishal pressed him on answering the question more widely.

And then , afterwards, the young woman seemed to have fallen for it!

Definitely. The debates are really badly done. Andrew Neil would have eaten them for lunch.

Wtf
Sometimes Labour does things that really make me dislike them. Less the campaigning - all the parties prioritise effort. But the stuff about the leaflets is just 😱

Absolutely matches my list and was what I was shouting at the telly.

Fair.

Of all the debate I have watched, Stephen Flynn was the only man either the real gumption to say what he thinks.

We haven't had debates. Debates involving making a statement and then backing it up with factual accurate evidence to support that statement - all within a specified time frame. You can rebut but you dont get to talk across the opposing argument or the flipping moderator.
What we have had is a series of televised pub style arguments.

One voice from each of the 4 biggest parties again on QT tonight. Farage must be spitting sawdust.

He’s gone very, very quiet, hasn’t he? Suspiciously so. It makes me feel uneasy.