Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress Thank you for posting those pictures of the released Ukrainians

I can't say what I want about them on here, so I'll leave it at thank you. These photos need to be shared far and wide

Those pictures are incredibly sad. They show exactly what Ukraine is fighting for.

And against.

Exit polls in France are alarming, if expected.

They are, though the true shape of the Assemblie won’t be known until this time next week post the second round.

There are going to be lots of arguments over tactical voting over the next week and also I think a lot of third placed candidates might drop out to stop the left/centre vote being split so it’s hard to predict how all this will end up.

FWIW locally we’ve stayed with a Socialist “MP”…..knowing the area I don’t think that’ll change post round 2.

The shift to the right generally fills me with such dread I can’t actually put it into words. I truly hope we don’t go down that route. I worry Starmer has been left with such a mess that he can’t possibly ‘succeed’ and that we’ll end up with Farage and his ilk next time.

Yes, does anybody else have a constant pit in the stomach feeling all the time these days? :-(

Yes 100%. I do however also find myself getting more pleasure from the small things, it’s strange.

This is an important point and we can see exactly that happening in France this and next weekend.

I fear that too many Labour voters and new Labour MPs have unrealistic expectations of what Starmer is able to change in five years given the current economic situation and current levels of Government debt. This is not a criticism of Starmer just a reflection of expectations not meeting what is realistically possible.

Come 2029 you then have politics becoming more extreme with a shift to the hard right and hard left.

@1dayatatime

*I fear that too many Labour voters and new Labour MPs have unrealistic expectations of what Starmer is able to change in five years given the current economic situation and current levels of Government debt. This is not a criticism of Starmer just a reflection of expectations not meeting what is realistically possible.

Come 2029 you then have politics becoming more extreme with a shift to the hard right and hard left.*

Agreed, having seen how rapidly Macron’s star has faded in our neck of the woods and what looks like the failure of his centrist politicsI do worry about what’s in store for the UK.

Judging by some posts on other threads I do think some people think that if Labour are elected on Thursday then by this time next week the education system/benefits/NHS will be fixed…..it’s not going to happen like that and the Right will standing by to pounce on the resulting dissatisfaction.

(Sorry for the thread drift but felt better for saying that)…

This may or may not be related to Ukraine, but American army bases in Europe have raised their force protection level, a step not taken lightly.

www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-06-30/us-military-bases-germany-terrorism-threat-14342506.html

Yes, all the time. It started being constant since Brexit and Trump round one.

Am very worried. I think that (conventional) war is quite likely coming unless the managers we have in charge get their act together far faster than they are, and get into a position of strength.

I fear that too many Labour voters and new Labour MPs have unrealistic expectations of what Starmer is able to change in five years given the current economic situation and current levels of Government debt. This is not a criticism of Starmer just a reflection of expectations not meeting what is realistically possible.

Yes, and in fact this is another thing I've noticed from bot messaging over the last decade.

There's a particular technique where they build something up impossibly, in order to create a sense of disappointment when it cannot deliver. Then say, "I'm so disappointed this person/party/the EU only meets 6 out of 10 of my wishlist – so I'll vote for the thing delivering 0 out of 10. It's all 6/10's fault."

There were some particularly insane ones during the Brexit campaign – akin to complaining the EU was useless because it hadn't cured cancer. I came to the conclusion that the trolls were having a game to see how ridiculous they could be and still get takers.

The Tories have set this up : promising things they know they can't deliver on, knowing they won't get in and then they can hold Labour to account for not doing the things the Tories said they would. I hate how none of this is in the interests of the people

@notimagain, I'd be interested in your take on this interview with a retired USAF Colonel and F-16 pilot on training and tactical issues for Ukraine.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Exit polls show far-right party takes https://kyivindependent.com/exit-polls-show-far-right-takes-lead-in-first-round-of-french-election/ lead in first round of French election

⚡️'US doesn't see Ukraine in NATO https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-us-doesnt-see-ukraine-in-nato-today/ today,' Zelensky says.
"It is so-called 'one step forward, two steps back' policy. I do not think that this is the policy of world leaders," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

⚡️Black Sea grain deal provides potential model https://kyivindependent.com/black-sea-grain-deal-provides-model-talks/ for talks with Russia, Zelensky says.
Ukraine does not envisage direct negotiations with Russia but could use the model of a tripartite agreement similar to the Black Sea Grain Initiative brokered by the U.N. and Turkey in 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer published on June 30.
Regarding the topic of negotiations, Zelensky emphasized that "if the idea is to give up our territories, no, it will not solve the issue."

⚡️Document reveals https://kyivindependent.com/document-reveals-why-russia-keeps-accidentally-bombing-itself-wp-reports/ why Russia keeps accidentally bombing itself, WP reports.
A document obtained by the Washington Post (WP) suggests Russia dropped glide bombs on its own territory nearly 40 times in one year, most likely due to malfunctioning guidance systems, the outlet reported on July 1.

⚡️Fico likely to return to duties https://kyivindependent.com/fico-likely-to-return-to-duties-soon-after-recovering-from-may-assassination-attempt-slovak-government-says/ 'soon' after recovering from May assassination attempt, Slovak government says.

⚡️Ombudsman: More than 14,000 Ukrainian civilians remain https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-more-than-14-000-ukrainian-civilians-in-russian-captivity/ in Russian captivity.

⚡️General Staff: Russia lost https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-lost-3-planes-350-tanks-in-june/ 3 planes, 350 tanks in June. Over 33,700 Russian soldiers were also reportedly killed in the last thirty days.

but

⚡️Meduza: Russian mortality data suggests over 64,000 https://kyivindependent.com/russian-data-suggests-over-64-000-killed/ troops killed fighting in Ukraine.

⚡️Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 6, injure 41 over past day.
⚡️1 killed, 9 injured in Russian strike https://kyivindependent.com/kharkiv-postal-depot-strike/ on Kharkiv postal depot.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• JUL 1, 2024

■ Combat engagements & casualties below 7-day average ■ Equipment losses stay high; daily record for artillery matched, big tank losses ■ Heavy 🇷🇺 shelling but improved strike ratio

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

NATO has redeployed Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft over Poland to monitor the skies over Ukraine, supporting the Alliance's increased regional presence and monitoring Russian military activity. The data gathered is transmitted to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, reports the UK Defense Journal.

Russia jammed GPS on hundreds of British military flights, reports The Telegraph.
The British newspaper analyzed data from the Flight Radar flight tracking service, covering 63 British military aircraft between January 1 and April 30. These aircraft made a total of 1,467 flights over Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
During this period, British military aircraft conducted 504 transport and reconnaissance flights over Eastern Europe, with 142 encountering GPS jamming, including 60 repeated attempts.
A Russian GPS jamming station is located in the Kaliningrad region, a Baltic Sea region between Poland and Lithuania.
British Defense Minister Grant Shapps, who experienced GPS signal jamming firsthand in the spring, called The Telegraph's report "another example of Russia's recklessness and further proof that it is an uncontrolled enemy state."

The murder of former pilot Kuzminov, who escaped from Russia to Ukraine by helicopter, was financed by Russian officials based in Vienna, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The newspaper reports that the payment to Kuzminov's killers by Russian officials exemplifies Austria's role as a planning center for Russian intelligence operations in Europe.
Sources within the intelligence services of the United States, Europe, and Austria indicate that Austria has become a financial and logistical hub for Russia to conduct sabotage and assassinations of Kremlin opponents.
Kuzminov, who hijacked a Russian helicopter in August 2023, was killed in February of this year in Spain. His body, found in the garage of his home, bore multiple gunshot wounds.

‼️ An eight-month-old baby and five adults were injured as a result of a Russian strike on Kharkiv, according to the city's mayor.
Seven vehicles belonging to the company are on fire due to the shelling.

🔥❗️ Russian aviation dropped at least 38 bombs on its own Belgorod region, according to The Washington Post.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺🇭🇺 Hungary begins its presidency of the Council of the European Union for the next six months
The priorities include developing a competitive economy, strengthening defense, and a "balanced" EU enlargement policy. The country has chosen the phrase "Make Europe Great Again" as its slogan. [fuck off, Hungary]

Zelensky said that Patriot systems are ineffective in the fight against KABs.
According to him, Patriot missiles are too expensive, and too few are produced to effectively shoot down Russian KABs.
A better solution would be to attack the airfields with the planes that launch the KABs on Ukraine. But this requires permission to hit Russia with ATACMS missiles.

The SBU detained provocateurs who were preparing provocations in Kyiv and planning to seize the Verkhovna Rada
In May and June, the provocateurs posted on social media calls for a change in the constitutional order and the seizure of state power. On June 30, they planned to hold a "veche" in Kyiv, "remove from office" the state leadership, and seize the Verkhovna Rada building.
The group was headed by the co-founder of an NGO known for its anti-Ukrainian actions since 2015. During the searches of the provocateurs' residences, weapons and ammunition were found.

🥵Ukraine will be one of the hottest countries in Europe this week, according to the Ukrainian Weather Center https://www.facebook.com/UkrHMC/posts/pfbid02fZtyGZKsCH2sJfTqyvKRmeD89XuLRpcBY8QNsJVj8sFPvzdaAHUmg6v1a7JrfMPml
In the west, temperatures will reach 30°C, while in the southern, central and eastern parts of the country they will reach 37°C.

South African volunteer medic Peter "Hasta La Vista" Fouché died in the war
You may remember him from this video: https://t.me/liveukraine_media/18421

Agreed, having seen how rapidly Macron’s star has faded in our neck of the woods and what looks like the failure of his centrist politicsI do worry about what’s in store for the UK

Whether it’s real or perceived, rapid rates of immigration seems to have eroded centrist policies esp when they coincide with falling living standards and tangible cultural differences of the immigrant population. The populist far right political parties have capitalised (fed into) these sentiments.

It may seem far fetched, but at the time I did think about how the 2016 Syrian refugee crisis suited Putin given how it led to conflict in Europe over how to respond. Russia was very involved in that conflict and Putin would’ve loved how Merkel’s acceptance of a million refugees in Germany led to a (continuing) spike in far right ideology. Now Le Pen rising in France and Meloni in Italy. Not sure about Meloni (I think she supports Ukraine) but doesn’t Le Pen have Russian ties?

Possibly more worrying than conventional war is this seemingly inexorable rise of authoritarian bordering on fascist leaders and their acceptance by large swathes of the electorate. Too many far right MEPs and the EU won’t be a counterweight to a Trump presidency and Republican controlled house. If Russia invaded say Kyiv again and/or a Baltic country, would EU or Nato still respond if there was a right / far right groundswell in Europe?

Seems, for the moment, the UK is an outlier with predicated Labour win.

Thanks, I’ll give that a look later, got a hard PM here, trying to fit in a bit of cooking between watching the back end of the Tour de France stage (allez Cav) and Les Bleus in the footie (soccer)…

South African volunteer medic Peter "Hasta La Vista" Fouché died in the war
You may remember him from this video: https://t.me/liveukraine_media/18421

Gut wrenching and awful he’s been killed.

At the moment I’m actually less concerned about war coming to NATO/ the rest of Europe and more worried about the gradual erosion of our freedoms, the increasing acceptance of hard right policies designed at fuelling hatred and othering of those most in need. Hitler didn’t start off rounding up the Jewish people and other ‘undesirables’, it began with exactly what we’re seeing now. My fear is this time it feels like it’s happening everywhere and there’s no obvious ballast against it.

I don't think the two are necessarily inextricable