Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

The big difference with the rally was that he was using a teleprompter and not needing to think on his feet.

And the radars and control vehicles are the most expensive components for the Russians to produce, so they don't generally have spares. The launchers are relatively cheap, so they have spares for those. Still, destroying the launchers is good, but destroying the radars and control vehicles is preferable.

I have seen videos showing secondary explosions caused by missiles that cluster munitions have set off. The rocket motors ignite, sending them flying unguided, which is not good for any troops or other equipment in the area.

And how often does a president have to talk impromptu? It's very rare for them to need to deal unprompted with a malign madman, I feel.

I know Trump has no difficulty spouting off-the-cuff garbage for hours on end, but speaking sense for the same length of time is a little harder.

I am fascinated by the general distaste for Biden: what has he done that's so wrong/despicable/incompetent?

I think that's oversimplifying things. His approval ratings are low for many reasons. He ran as a centrist but has turned over policy-making and cabinet appointments to the far left. Inflation is better now, but excessive federal spending was a key factor in driving it up during his first two years in office. He's used a loophole in the asylum law to allow millions of people who entered the country illegally to stay for years while awaiting court hearings. That's caused huge problems for the cities that now have to provide shelter and services for them. NYC has had to cut education and police budgets to make up additional expenses. The student loan forgiveness programs have been ruled unconstitutional in several cases (only Congress has the power of the purse, not the executive branch). And the people who don't have student loans or have already paid them back (87% of the population) are effectively subsidizing the ones who had their loans forgiven.

There are still many people who support Biden, and the polls are close. But it's not a mystery why many people don't.

What are the odds @MissConductUS that a Trump presidency and Republican controlled house will turn off the tap of funding and arms to Ukraine? Might American defence companies be an effective lobby in pushing to continue the flow?

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024

Key Takeaways:

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin directed on June 28 the production and deployment of nuclear-capable short- and intermediate-range missiles following the American withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty in 2019, likely as part of the Kremlin's ongoing reflexive control campaign to influence Western decision making in Russia's favor.
2. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an oil depot in Russia on June 28 and reportedly struck a microelectronics plant and a military unit on the night of June 27 to 28.
3. The Ukrainian Armed Forces Center for Strategic Communications (StratCom) reported on June 28 that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed more than 30 Russian military aircraft in the first six months of 2024, although ISW cannot confirm this report fully.
4. Many Russian elites have reportedly shifted from criticizing Russia's war effort in Ukraine to supporting it because they assess that Russia is prevailing.
5. Russian officials called for harsher punishments in Russia's criminal system, likely in response to the recent terrorist attacks in Dagestan.
6. Russia may be creating a shadow fleet to transport Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) and circumvent Western sanctions.
7. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Vovchansk and Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar.
8. Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii used Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) data to estimate that over 71,000 Russian men died in the war in Ukraine in 2022 and 2023.

It’s pretty much a daily occurrence. You want someone who they can wake at 3am, tell them terrorists have committed a major attack in the middle of New York City or that the Chinese have invaded Taiwan, or god forbid that Putin has dropped a nuke on Kyiv and is able to instantly deal with that situation.

The president would have precisely 6mins to make a decision on whether to retaliate if a nuclear attack was detected from a foreign state. The Joe Biden of now couldn’t make that decision I don’t believe.

I'd say it's a possibility, not a certainty. Trump is nothing if not unpredictable, and there's a good chance the Republicans will take the House and possibly the Senate as well. If Trump wants to continue the aid, the House Republicans will do as they're told. If he drops the aid, he's lost all negotiating leverage with Putin, and his political calculus as president will be quite different than it was as a candidate. It's worth noting that he resumed shipment of military aid, including Javelin ATGM's to Ukraine, which Obama had halted.

I don't think the big defense contractors will have any influence. Their order books are already full for years for most weapons, and they're expanding as fast as possible.

Russia may be reaching the point of diminishing returns in recruiting for the war in Ukraine. It's becoming more commonly known just how dire conditions are at the front and how bad the casualty rates have been. They've doubled or tripled the enlistment bonus and are now advertising for recruits in major cities like St.Petersberg, And two-plus years on, it's become a war of attrition, not an expeditionary adventure you'll come home to tell your friends about. This is an opinion piece from the US political news outlet The Hill.

It’s getting harder for Putin to find Russians willing to die for him in Ukraine

The battle in Vovchansk is becoming payback to the Russians for Mariupol, where the Ukrainian forces were trapped in the Azov steel plant. It's an elite Russian airborne unit that's being destroyed. From The War Zone:

Ukraine Situation Report: Besieged Russian Troops Holding Out In Bombed-Out Factory - Russia's offensive has left a factory town where street battles continue rage in ruins and dozens of its troops surrounded.

It was noticeable that one of the recent trolls talked of sitting behind a keyboard sending people out to die.

They were accusing MNers of this, obvs (cause that's the sort of power we have), but it's a truism that accusations are frequently admissions in Russian messaging. That's exactly what the trolls in St Petersburg really are participating in.

It must be starting to feel closer to home for some.

I'm wondering if Putin is simply waiting until November and the outcome of the US elections. Trump has been talking about a Ukraine peace that leave Russia with its gains.

Im wondering that too @TheABC

I don't suppose we'll ever know what the truth is but there have been comments from not-the-most-paranoid of people that Russia's been nudging Trump for a very long time.

Does anyone have access to this article?

https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/nord-stream-pipeline-report-russia-putin-ships-site-explosion-3xx50vgbh

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress archive.ph/2024.06.30-082606/www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/nord-stream-pipeline-report-russia-putin-ships-site-explosion-3xx50vgbh

Thank you.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️DTEK: 90% of company's energy generating capacity https://kyivindependent.com/dtek-90-of-companys-energy-generating-capacity-lost-due-to-russian-strikes/ lost due to Russian strikes.
Russia has struck DTEK thermal power plants over 180 times, causing losses worth at least $350 million.

⚡️US awards $4.5 billion https://kyivindependent.com/us-contracts-to-produce-missiles-for-patriot-air-defense-systems-worth-4-5-billion/ contract to produce Patriot air defense missiles.

⚡️Ukraine now mass-producing strike drones https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-now-mass-producing-strike-drones-with-range-of-over-1-000-kilometers/ with range of over 1,000 kilometers.

⚡️Zelensky: Russia used over 800 guided aerial bombs https://kyivindependent.com/russia-drops-800-guided-aerial-bombs/ against Ukraine this week.

⚡️EU imposes new sanctions https://kyivindependent.com/eu-imposes-new-sanctions-against-belarus-implementing-anti-circumvention-measures/ against Belarus, implementing anti-circumvention measures.
The EU Council also prohibited the direct or indirect imports, purchasing, or transferring of gold and diamonds from Belarus, as well as helium, coal, and mineral products, including crude oil.

⚡️30,000 square kilometers of Ukraine's land cleared https://kyivindependent.com/30-000-square-kilometers-of-ukraines-land-cleared-of-mine-threats-operations-expanding-further/ of mine threats, operations expanding further.
In April 2022, Ukraine established the Corps of Deminers. Since then, units have been active in the Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv regions.

⚡️OSCE Parliamentary Assembly adopts resolution recognizing Russian genocide of Ukrainian people https://kyivindependent.com/osce-pa-adopts-resolution-recognising-russian-genocide-of-ukrainian-people/
Ukrainian delegate Pavlo Frolov said the document also "defines the decolonization of the Russian Federation as a necessary prerequisite for establishing a lasting peace.

⚡️SBU releases new headcam footage of Snake Island liberation https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-releases-new-headcam-footage-of-snake-island-liberation/

⚡️Companies in Russia supporting war targeted https://kyivindependent.com/companies-in-russia-supporting-war-targeted-by-ukrainian-hackers/ by Ukrainian hackers.

⚡️Polish foreign minister proposes https://kyivindependent.com/polish-fm-to-win-escalation-game-west-could-seize-all-321-billion-of-russian-assets/ seizing $321 billion in frozen Russian assets.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on June 29 proposed seizing all 300 billion euros ($321 billion) in frozen Russian sovereign assets to win "the escalation game" with Russia.

⚡️Russia to send https://kyivindependent.com/russia-may-send-children-to-north-korean-camp-this-summer/ children to North Korean summer camp.

⚡️Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia Oblast injures 31, kills 7, including children.
⚡️Governor: 2 killed 4 injured in Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast.
⚡️Governor: Two people missing after Dnipro attack found alive and well.
⚡️Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast kill 1 person, injure 2.
⚡️3 injured in Russian attack on Kharkiv Oblast.
⚡️Update: 7 killed incl 3 children killed in Russian attack on Vilniansk and 36 injured

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
⚡️ WAR IN

• JUN 30, 2024

■ Engagements & casualties below 7-day avg, equipment losses well above it ■ Few 🇺🇦 strikes results in an unfavorable daily ratio ■ Janovsky: 54 🇷🇺 18 🇺🇦 net addition ■ KIU: +42 officers; last four batches > long-term average

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia is recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers each month, roughly matching the number of soldiers leaving the battlefield, according to The New York Times.
This tactic of sending waves of troops into heavy combat has sometimes been effective, securing victories for the Russian army in Avdiivka and Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. However, Ukrainian and Western officials report that this approach was less successful during Russia's spring efforts to seize territory near Kharkiv.

"Shaheds" are now flying at an altitude of 1-1.5 km, compared to their previous altitude of 100-200 meters, according to a fighter from the mobile fire group. This change in altitude requires different equipment to shoot them down.

🇩🇪 The volume of export licenses for military equipment issued by the German government in the first half of 2024 amounted to at least 7.48 billion euros, with the vast majority intended for Ukraine.
This total is 30% higher than the value of weapons exported in the first half of 2023. Almost two-thirds of these exports—65%, or 4.88 billion euros—are designated for Ukraine.

The EU has extended sanctions on Belarus, aligning them with those imposed on Russia to prevent circumvention of existing restrictions, according to the Council of the European Union.
The report stated that since the economies of Russia and Belarus are closely linked, these measures are expected to be effective. The sanctions include:

• Prohibition on the export of dual-use goods and advanced technologies.
• Restrictions on exporting goods that could strengthen Belarus's industrial potential.
• Ban on the export of maritime shipping goods, technologies, and luxury items.
• Prohibition on importing, buying, or transferring gold, diamonds, helium, coal, and mineral products from Belarus, including crude oil.
• Ban on the export of goods and technologies suitable for oil refining and natural gas liquefaction.
• Prohibition on providing services such as accounting, auditing, tax consulting, architectural services, IT consulting, legal consulting, advertising, market research, and public opinion polling to Belarusian state bodies, companies, or individuals.
• Ban on the transportation of goods within the EU by trailers and semi-trailers registered in Belarus.
• Prohibition on operators owned 25% or more by Belarusian entities from becoming motor transport companies or transporting goods to the EU, including by transit.
• Prohibition on the re-export to Belarus of sensitive goods and technologies, war goods, firearms, and ammunition.
• Ban on the transit through Belarus of dual-purpose goods and technologies intended for the aviation or space industry, as well as weapons exported from the EU.

As a result of war in Ukraine, 551 children were killed and more than 1,400 were injured, according to the Office of the Prosecutor General.
Most of the injuries occurred in the frontline regions, including Donetsk (550), Kharkiv (399), Kherson (154), and Dnipropetrovsk (152).

Physical condition of Ukrainians released from Russian captivity on June 25

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The nationalist parties from Austria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic that won the European Parliament elections have formed https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/06/30/hungarys-orban-announces-new-far-right-bloc-for-the-european-parliament a new far-right bloc called Patriots for Europe.
These parties include Hungary's Fidesz, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Austria's Freedom Party with Herbert Kickl, and the Czech ANO 2011 with Andrej Babiš.
All of them do not support Ukraine in the war with Russia. Each of the leaders is known for his or her favoritism towards Russia.

🤡Kanye West came to Moscow. Telegram channels publish a video of the famous rapper's walk in the Russian capital
According to the media, Kanye West arrived at the birthday party of Russian fashion designer Gosha Rubchinskiy.

Ukraine Soldier that died in Russia Captivity out of starvation and torture
"When we arrived in Kyiv on January 25 to identify the body, I was shocked by what I saw. It was a very horrifying sight. What struck me the most was how emaciated the body was. The pathologist said it weighed less than fifty kilograms. Sasha was tall — 180 cm. Before captivity, he weighed 110 kg and was physically healthy. What was left of him was just skin and bones. His head was completely bruised, his nose was crooked, and his index fingers had no nails. Whether they were torn out or broken off, I don't know. There were signs of torture all over his body.His cellmates later told me how they were abused. They were beaten every day, either in the cell or taken outside. They were beaten very harshly, especially my husband. Because he was tall, well-built, and refused to speak Russian."

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

1. Two prominent Russian officials appear to be spearheading divergent paths for addressing religious extremism in Russia as ethnic and religious tension in Russia continues to rise.
2. Russian ultranationalists continue to express growing doubt in Russian authorities' ability to prevent another terrorist attack and to address ethnic and religious tensions within Russia following the June 23 terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan.
3. Ten Ukrainian civilians whom Russian and Belarusian authorities arrested and held in captivity or prison, including individuals detained before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, returned to Ukraine.
4. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Donetsk City.
5. Some new Russian military personnel are reportedly receiving insufficient training before deploying to Ukraine.

Interesting first post. Are you by any chance a Ukrainian living in Ukraine at the moment? If the answer is no, then I would say leave it to those who are Ukrainians living in Ukraine to judge these men.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress

"Shaheds" are now flying at an altitude of 1-1.5 km, compared to their previous altitude of 100-200 meters, according to a fighter from the mobile fire group. This change in altitude requires different equipment to shoot them down.

Wonder if they have been losing a lot of Shaheds to small arms or similar caliber fire.

Going up probably makes them to detect by radar and then engage with short range SAM systems/specialist anti-aircraft artillery but that’s more expensive ordnance and how much of that have the Ukrainians got around key targets….?