Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

I really don’t think it’s going to end any time soon and to be honest suspect it’ll eventually just grind to a ‘halt’ and become another frozen conflict. That is until Russia decides to try again. I just have no optimism that there will be a fair and just peace. And unfortunately, to the West’s great shame because it would be due to our lack of support, if either side is to ‘win’ I still think in the long term it’ll be Russia.

Maybe I’m just getting tired and jaded, I hope so. I would give anything to see a true Ukrainian victory.

I think too that any regional conflict in the Middle East will just act to draw attention and that does nothing for western support of Ukraine.

I think that Ukraine is bound up with all these other conflicts. And a lot of leaders in the West are missing this. The lack of full throated support will come back to bite them, not least in these other potential theatres. Russia is working with China, NK and Iran and will continue to do so. I find some of the isolationists quite infuriating in this respect - Elbridge Colby, JD Vance, seem to have no sense of how interlinked everything is.

I don't think there will be a satisfactory end to the war in Ukraine - Russia will continue to be a major threat not just to Ukraine but to Europe as a whole for decades. We're back to a Cold War style relationship.

I would just like to add my thanks to the regulars on this thread, for all the updates and chat. This is my go-to for information and discussion, as it is for so many of us. Like you I had hoped we wouldn't get this far. I am feeling more hopeful now than I was two months ago, though! Thank you

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-15-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials are taking steps to consolidate and coordinate the management of ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast while continuing to highlight Ukrainian advances.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued advancing in some areas in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations in the area.
• Russian forces are maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, demonstrating that the Russian military command continues to prioritize advances in eastern Ukraine even as Ukraine is pressuring Russian forces within Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin and the Russian military command are creating a complicated, overlapping, and so far, ineffective command and control (C2) structure for the Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.
• The delayed establishment of a complicated Russian C2 structure in Kursk Oblast continues to highlight the fact that the Kremlin failed to plan for the possibility of a significant Ukrainian incursion into Russia.
• The Kremlin appears to have a more coordinated approach to securing its control over the Russian information space than to addressing its military and C2 problems in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin is likely trying to hastily create a new information space that predominantly features coopted Russian milbloggers and established Russian state propagandists.
• Ukrainian forces are reportedly using Western-provided equipment in Kursk Oblast but remain limited in their ability to strike Russian military targets within Russia with Western-provided weapons.
• Ukraine is organizing the creation of a humanitarian corridor through which to evacuate Russian civilians who are impacted by the ongoing Kursk operation, filling an apparent vacuum left by the Kursk Oblast administration and fulfilling international legal requirements for the evacuation of civilian populations.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces successfully conducted drone strikes against Russian air bases in Russia on the night of August 13 to 14.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions.
• The Russian government submitted a bill on August 15 to lower the admission age for the Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF) from 18 years of age to 14.

The Russian government submitted a bill on August 15 to lower the admission age for the Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF) from 18 years of age to 14.

Fuck me that's absolutely awful, they're children.

Going to do the roundup on the other thread now, since it's gathering some posts. Ill fill this one up to stop the pests.

Filling up!

Filling up!

Filling up!

Fill fill fill

Nearly

There

Maybe we should play that word association game? But it would be the most negative one ever 😂

Loving what you're doing here

Fuck

You

Putin

Oh .. seems you can only post so often ... could someone else maybe try too please? :)

... which everyone has ... :D

Six to go ... five if this posts ...

I can post

I think

This might

Slava

Ukraini