Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

It's easy sitting in your comfy homes encouraging others to keep going. Nearly a million have died and over what? Because NATO wanted to expand its borders. I hate it to break your bubble folks - but ultimately Ukraine WILL lose eventually. I'll come back here at that time to tell you..."I told you so"..until then sit back and watch Ukraine lose its territory inch by inch, mile by mile.

It would be great if you could answer my question rather than rubbing your crystal ball.

Pm

It's got fuck all to do with NATO, and more to do with Putins paranoia about NATO expanding its borders.

Putin has fucked his country over to the point of kissing North Koreas ass to fill the begging bowl, and flogging off part of the country to China. That's without all of the unnecessary bloodshed and lives lost that lie at his door.

Russian standing in the world has dropped to below pointless since they invaded their neighbour, and the blame lies with Putin.

Really low quality.

Ukraine wasn't allowed into NATO to keep Russia happy, dozy.

Sweden and Finland rather badly wanted to stay out of NATO too. But then, Russia did its outstanding sales job of making joining NATO really, really attractive.

And yes, its honestly strange, silly and rather grim all at the same time how Russia went from a country that was respected to one where people laugh at its military, its organisational ability and despise its conduct.

It must have been pretty hollow for a long time to have performed quite this appallingly, but it didn't look like it for a long time.

PM

Thank you for the new thread.

No matter how low I set the bar, Russia finds a way to plummet under it.
For Ukraine's sake I want a swift end to this war in their favour but a small part of me is looking forward to the next level of Russian desperation. I'm glad I'm not in charge of the central bank.

I'd like to make it quite clear to @Emperorcentury that between the posters I personally know on this thread, we have literally sent tens of thousands of pounds to Ukraine. Cars, drones, nearly a hundred soldiers dressed head to toe, first aid, antibiotics, atropine (for when your babaric fuckers decided to use chemical weapons) electric generators, soup kitchens, sleeping bags. The list is endless. Not to mention financing and providing a safe passage to Ukrianians that were in occupied Ukraine. You have no idea at the might of the people on this thread, or the Financial resources.

In fact, I might buy Kharkiv another drone. To Russia, with Love @Emperorcentury

Putin is the best NATO enlarger of them all!

One thing that's been made clear is that we clearly overestimated the Russian army's effectiveness. They've always had a two-tier setup, with the elite units (designated "Guards") getting the best equipment, training, officers, etc. and everyone else working at a much lower level.

They led the invasion in 2022 with the elite units, who massively underperformed for many reasons, including poor planning, intelligence failures, corruption, an overly centralized command and control doctrine, and inadequate logistics. Those elite units took such heavy losses that it will take years to reconstitute them to the same level of combat effectiveness (which again, isn't great) and now they're left with troops from the ethnic minority areas, who have always been the last on the list for resources. Their best equipment was also destroyed during the initial fiasco, which is why they're pulling 50 year old tanks and armored vehicles out of storage.

They're now incapable of large scale, coordinated combined arms operations now, which is quite fortunate for Ukraine.

They're now incapable of large scale, coordinated combined arms operations now, which is quite fortunate for Ukraine.

No one has actually stated this so clearly. Thank you.

It still seems so grim - the fact is that Ukraine is struggling so very badly for troops and Russia is slowly and incrementally making gains in the Donbas. Ukraine is regaining ground in Kharkiv, but the Donbas is fairly grim. Russia is struggling for people too but still has more soldiers in Ukraine than at the start of the war and numbers do count, alas. Plus the elite troops have been hammered, but it's been said that hte ones who have survived are producing a pool of battle hardened and effective (brutally so) troops. Russia -is- improving its EW. (although not as much as Ukraine, thank heavens)

The funding still seems to be coming, thank God, but the unconscionable delay in military aid and the restrictions placed on its use is still having serious effects.

Mind you Crimea seems to be going well! Even so ...

There are times it's hard to keep despair in check (and that's even from the safety of my nice un- attacked country) so to read a blanket, clear statement that they are incapable of large scale coordinated arms ops is very, very nice. Gives hope.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong you are fucking hero (no joke)
When I grow up I want to be just like you.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress I hear you ❤🇺🇦

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to invoke nuclear threats as part of his ongoing information campaign to discourage further Western support for Ukraine and undermine the international community's efforts to cohere its strategic vision for defeating Russia’s war of conquest against Ukraine.
• Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continued to emphasize Russia's initiative to create an alternative "Eurasian security architecture," likely as part of ongoing efforts to establish a coalition of friendly states to act as an alternative to the West and undermine NATO.
• The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) criticized South Korean and Japanese objections to the Russian-North Korean strategic partnership agreement and directly tied the agreement to Russian President Vladimir Putin's "Eurasian security architecture" initiative.
• Ukrainian forces struck oil refineries and military targets in Bryansk and Astrakhan oblasts, Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Crimea on the night of June 20 to 21.
• Moscow State University (MGU) announced on June 21 that it has opened enrollment for a master's program on "strategic communications, information, and hybrid wars" under the guidance of Russian ultranationalist and former State Duma Deputy Zakhar Prilepin and other select Duma deputies.
• Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, southwest of Svatove, and west and southwest of Donetsk City.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be taking steps to address known bureaucratic issues as part of its efforts to formalize irregular Russian formations.
• An investigation by Russian opposition outlet Verstka highlights how Russia is importing Russian judges to serve in courts in occupied Ukraine, supporting Russian efforts to control the judiciary while also providing a convenient cover for the resettlement of Russian citizens into occupied Ukraine.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong your post absolutely nailed it 🤩🤩🤩 well said 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

The Group of Seven (G7) leaders confirmed on June 13 a plan to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan by the end of the year, to be repaid using interest from approximately $300 billion of Russian Central Bank assets frozen after the invasion in 2022. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-business-roundup-russian-assets-for-ukraine/

⚡️EU to start transfer https://kyivindependent.com/russian-assets-kyiv-eu-summer-break/ of profits from frozen Russian assets 'before summer break,' EU official says.

⚡US, China hold nuclear talks https://kyivindependent.com/us-china-hold-nuclear-talks-for-first-time-in-5-years-reuters-reports/ for first time in 5 years, Reuters reports.
Informal discussions on nuclear weapons between the United States and China resumed in March for the first time in five years, Reuters first reported on June 21, with Beijing delegates assuring their American counterparts that they would not resort to using nuclear threats over Taiwan.

⚡️Media: Official who gave Putin wrong intelligence on Ukraine war resigns https://kyivindependent.com/general-beseda-resigns-as-head-of-5th-service-of-russias-federal-security-service-media-reports/
Sergei Beseda has resigned as head of the 5th Service of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), Russian investigative outlet Important Stories reported on June 22, citing its undisclosed sources.
The 5th Service provided Putin with information about political developments in Ukraine on the eve of the full-scale invasion. Based on this intelligence, the Russian authorities were confident that the Russian army would not meet any serious resistance in Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine wants to hold another peace summit https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-wants-to-hold-another-peace-summit-by-end-of-year/ by end of year, official says.

⚡️Netherlands to supply https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-to-provide-patriot-jointly/ Patriot system to Ukraine together with another country. [Yesss! that came out of the blue]

⚡️ Ukrainian forces stall Russian advance https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-stall-out-russian-assault-in-direction-of-borova-in-kharkiv-oblast-military-says/ in direction of Kharkiv Oblast's Borova, military says.

⚡️Russian missiles strike https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missiles-strike-critical-infrastructure-in-lviv-oblast-explosions-heard-in-multiple-cities/ critical infrastructure in Lviv Oblast, explosions heard in multiple cities.

⚡️Updated: Russian attacks damage https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missiles-strike-critical-infrastructure-in-lviv-oblast-explosions-heard-in-multiple-cities/ energy infrastructure in multiple oblasts, casualties reported.

⚡️ Government allows military units https://kyivindependent.com/government-allows-ukrainian-armed-forces-units-to-produce-aircraft-space-aircraft/ to produce aircraft.
The Ukrainian government has allowed Ukrainian Armed Forces' units to launch their own aircraft production, Taras Melnychuk, the government's representative in the parliament, wrote on Telegram on June 21.

⚡️Ukraine to start talks https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-start-talks-on-security-agreement-with-ireland/ on security agreement with Ireland, Presidential Office says.

‘It really is insane:’ Ex-defense minister on Slovakia’s pro-Russian turn https://kyivindependent.com/former-defense-minister-on-slovakias-pro-russian-turn/
Under the guidance of then-Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad, Bratislava became the first country to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine, handing over its MiG-29s to a badly depleted Ukrainian Air Force, along with a much-needed S-300 air defense system.

⚡️ 3 people arrested in Germany https://kyivindependent.com/3-people-arrested-in-germany-for-allegedly-spying-on-person-from-ukraine/ for allegedly spying on Ukrainian person.

Israel will soon impose new travel restrictions on Ukrainians, leading Ukraine to impose similar requirements in response, Ukraine's Embassy in Israel announced on June 20 https://kyivindependent.com/israel-ukraine-to-suspend-visa-free-regime/

⚡️Satellite image shows significant destruction https://kyivindependent.com/satellite-image-shows-3-of-6-fuel-tanks-burned-down-after-drone-strike-on-russias-oil-depot/ of oil depot in southern Russia following drone strike.
Three of the six fuel tanks burned down after a Ukrainian drone strike on an oil depot in Russia's Rostov Oblast.

Generation of fighters: An intimate look at Ukraine's fearless youth https://kyivindependent.com/generation-of-fighters-an-intimate-look-at-ukraines-fearless-youth-photos/

Opinion: Having a child during wartime is terrifying, but it’s still worth it kyivindependent.com/opinion-having-a-child-during-wartime-is-terrifying-but-its-still-worth-it/
"In addition to thinking of factors like finances, lifestyle, and education, parents in wartime Ukraine also have to take into account things like the situation on the front line, the toll that daily Russian attacks have on mental health, the extent to which their city is directly targeted, the hits taken by the economy, and the degree of threat that can change at a moment’s notice," writes Kate Tsurkan in her recent op-ed.

⚡️Mediazona confirms https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-nearly-56-800-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/ identities of over 56,800 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.

⚡️7 Ukrainian children returned https://kyivindependent.com/7-children-occupied-kherson/ from Russian-occupied territory.

⚡️Euro 2024: Ukraine beats Slovakia 2:1, earning first win

⚡️ Russian drone attack kills postal worker delivering pensions in Kharkiv Oblast.
⚡️Russian attacks kill 8 civilians injure 19 over past day.
⚡️Russian attack on Kharkiv kills 2, injures 18.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• JUN 22, 2024

■ Engagements stay on a high level, casualties roughly 1.1k ■ Relatively few equipment losses ■ Unfavorable strike ratio (more 🇷🇺 strikes, fewer 🇺🇦 ones) ■ KIU: +27 🇷🇺 officers; 4.6 per day for last four batches

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The US has allowed Ukraine to strike at Russian territory up to 100 km deep, according to The Washington Post.
The publication notes that despite a reduction in Russian attacks, this distance is still not sufficient to cover Russian airfields where aircraft are located that conduct strikes on Ukrainian territory.

Moscow Exchange Announces Forced Conversion of Dollars and Euros into Rubles — The Moscow Times.
The Moscow Exchange, which has been sanctioned by the United States, announced that it will "fulfill its obligations to brokers and their clients," but will return currency balances in rubles.
After being included in the SDN list on June 12, the exchange lost the ability to operate with dollars and euros; trading in these currencies was stopped on June 13.
"The conversion of US dollars and euros into rubles and the fulfillment of obligations will be carried out by June 28, 2024, at the central rate set for June 13, 2024, based on the results of exchange trading on June 11, 2024," the exchange reported.

Gazprom increases oil trade to compensate for unprofitable gas business, — Reuters.
Last year, Gazprom reported annual losses amounting to $7 billion and reduced natural gas production by 13% to a record low of 359 billion cubic meters (down from 412.94 billion cubic meters in 2022).
Currently, Gazprom, through its Gazprom Export division, is trying to increase the transshipment of ESPO oil delivered to Asia, as well as the export of Siberian light oil, sources in trading companies told reporters.
"Oil exports through Gazprom's pipelines doubled in 2023 and are expected to double again in 2024," said one of the sources.
The volume of condensate production by Gazprom will also increase. In May, the company began production at the Urengoi oil field, which is expected to produce 1.5 million tons of condensate per year.

🇳🇱 The Netherlands has "assembled" a Patriot system for Ukraine and will transfer it together with another state.
The head of the Dutch Ministry of Defense declined to provide the delivery timeline for the Patriot air defense system to Ukraine to avoid disclosing this information to Russia.

Putin Came to Asia to Destroy, and He Succeeded, — The New York Times
Four days in Asia. That's all it took for Vladimir Putin to anger Washington, undermine Beijing's position, and unsettle the countries of the Indo-Pacific region.
After visits to Pyongyang and Hanoi, which were painted in communist red, Putin left behind a redrawn map of risks in Asia. North Korea is at the center, a nuclear rogue state that regularly threatens its neighbors and has suddenly gained strength thanks to Russian promises of high-tech military aid and a mutual defense pact.
Putin has also signed at least a dozen deals with Vietnam, a country that is becoming increasingly important to China and the United States in their struggle for influence.

Russia will threaten NATO "for many years."
NATO Supreme Allied Commander Christopher Cavoli stated on June 19 at the Eurosatory exhibition in Paris:
"The defeat of Russia in Ukraine is extremely important, but no matter how it turns out on the other side of the conflict, we will find a Russia that has a military that is rebuilding much faster than we thought. So we will have big problems with Russia for many years, and I think we need to prepare for that."

Kanye West's loyalty to Russia has turned into open support for aggression against Ukraine. The American rapper, who has a huge army of fans around the world, continues to praise Putin and everything he does. However, Russia's leader is not the only dictator for whom West has expressed affection. Adolf Hitler is another figure Kanye seems to be influenced by and he has openly stated this in interviews.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russian SA-22 Pantsir shoots down their own Ka-29 in Anapa, highlighting embarrassing ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems

⚡️⚡️Russia is withdrawing some units from near Vovchansk due to the loss of combat capability.
This was stated by the spokesman for the Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Grouping of troops Nazar Voloshyn. The withdrawal is recorded near Lypky and Tykhy. Russians did not conduct active hostilities in this area yesterday and this morning.

❗️A massive power outage occurred in the Balkans amid an abnormal heat wave, leaving Croatia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Albania and part of Greece without electricity.
The system failure affected millions of people. The air temperature in the region reaches +40 °C. The services of each country are trying to fix the problem.

❗️During the day, the Russian military launched a missile attack on a food warehouse in Kryvyi Rih, injuring two men aged 60 and 22

Ivano-Frankivsk Oil and Gas University destroyed after a nighttime Russian strike

Briefly about the consequences of the night attack:
📍Lviv oblast. A hit to a critical energy infrastructure facility.
📍Zaporizhzhia oblast. An energy infrastructure facility was hit. Two power engineers were injured.
📍Ivano-Frankivsk oblast. There was a hit, which partially destroyed several buildings of the educational institution and nearby houses. There is also damage to residential buildings in one of the districts of the oblast.
📍 Volyn. Air defense was working at dawn. Debris damaged a house and an outbuilding in the Lutsk area.

Thanks to all.
So sad to still be here.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🇺🇦

I think this every thread. I hate how normal it feels for the World to be so absolutely fucked.

@Emperorcentury once again, please let us all know what you get out of this. What’s your motivation? Do you really believe what you are saying?

Yes 100% - if you look at it objectively, you'll see that Zelensky was placed in that position in 2014 by western left coup. He's doing the bidding on behalf of nato/western masters and sacrificing poor Ukrainains.

Well, if you honestly believe all that, there really is no talking to you. Zelenskyy wasn’t even president in 2014, so he wasn’t placed in any position whatsoever.