Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

I mean they are inextricable - doh

Why can't centrist politicians make this narrative successfully? Why can't they articulate it head on, the way those at the far ends do?

Roger that, over.😁

I don’t think they are though. It’s possible to have a society with minimal, if any, freedom and unrestrained repression and not to have outright war. Us in the Western World shouldn’t assume we are immune from that.

I'm dealing with this by having my second massive glass of Monday wine

It's just all SO shit, everywhere

Cannot see any ISW or Min Def update today

@MissConductUS

Hi again, have had a couple of goes at that Fischer article/interview and TBH not quite sure what to make of it - it comes over as a bit broadbrush and sometimes disjointed in places, possibly due to editing, and I sense just maybe there have been multiple translations gone on that have further muddied the waters.

For example “When F-16s enter the combat zone, they will remain undetected by the enemy thanks to long-range radar aircraft.” means, well, what exactly ????

Given his background is electronic warfare I wonder if he’s was thinking along the likes of datalink being used to feed/cue the F-16 without them having to fire up their own radars, so allowing them to remain invisible electronically, but the article doesn’t say that.

He’s obviously not a fan of the pace of delivery, who is, but seems to think that is more down to politics than logistics etc….I’m not completely convinced that’s entirely the case.

With regards to the US bases increasing their security level to Charlie, Sky Mews now reporting that they have confirmed this is due to a variety of factors including elections in the Uk and France (I note there has already been protests in Paris), the Olympics and other major sporting events as well as the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.

Orban is meeting Zelenskyy in Kyiv today. I wonder if this stems from their emotional interaction at the EU summit recently.

Just bringing , because that's all I can contribute just now.

Zelenskyy's team are incredibly good at tapping into other countries' national psyche.

I would hazard a guess that "Hungary understands us because Soviet tanks rolled into Budapest in 1956" formed part of his conversation with Orban.

Orban might be proud of being illiberal (he is), but I'm pretty sure he wouldn't relish giving up Hungary to the Russian empire.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-1-2024

Key Takeaways:

1. Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) Head Vladimir Kolokoltsev boasted that Russian authorities have increased detentions and prosecutions related to illegal migration into Russia while calling for intensified Russian government crackdowns against illegal migration.
2. Russia assumed its one-month-long rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on July 1 for the first time since April 2023 and will likely use this position as a power projection base within the international system as it historically has.
3. South Korea's Ministry of Unification announced on July 1 that North Korean state TV channel Korean Central TV switched to transmitting broadcasts via Russian satellites instead of Chinese satellites, reportedly affecting South Korea's ability to monitor North Korean state TV.
4. Hungary assumed the six-month rotating presidency of the European Union (EU) Council on July 1.
5. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka.
6. The Russian information space continues to discuss the mistreatment of wounded and disabled Russian servicemembers in Ukraine.

I do wonder if Orban and ultimately Trump can be leveraged with the right manipulation and massaging of egos. I hate to do it like the Russians but useful idiots go both ways….

I must say I think the Orban visit and meeting is a good sign. If Zelensky can convince Orban of the rightness of Ukraine's defence and nationhood that's going to be massive.
And I believe he could. Everything crossed.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Trump has immunity for official acts https://kyivindependent.com/trump-has-immunity-for-official-acts-us-supreme-court-rules/ US Supreme Court rules. [The return of an emperorship?]

⚡️Orban arrives https://kyivindependent.com/orban-arrives-in-kyiv-on-first-visit-since-beginning-of-full-scale-war/ in Kyiv on first visit since beginning of full-scale war.

⚡️ Update: Orban asks Zelensky to consider ceasefire https://kyivindependent.com/orban-arrives-in-kyiv-on-first-visit-since-beginning-of-full-scale-war/ with Russia.

⚡️Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend the 24th meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which will be held from July 3 to 4. kyivindependent.com/xi-putin-to-participate-in-shanghai-cooperation-organization-meeting-in-astana/

⚡️Update: Zelensky, Orban https://kyivindependent.com/orban-arrives-in-kyiv-on-first-visit-since-beginning-of-full-scale-war/ seek bilateral cooperation agreement between Ukraine, Hungary.

⚡️Netherlands completes export license for 24 F-16s https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-completes-export-license-for-24-f-16s-jets-to-reach-ukraine-soon/ jets to reach Ukraine 'soon.'

⚡️US to announce $2.3 billion military aid package https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-announce-2-3-billion-military-aid-package-to-ukraine-soon-pentagon-says/ to Ukraine 'soon.'

⚡️️Umerov to meet https://kyivindependent.com/umerov-to-meet-with-austin-at-the-pentagon-on-july-2/ with Austin at the Pentagon on July 2.

⚡️Ukraine expects strengthened air defenses https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-expects-strengthened-air-defenses-in-july-zelensky-says/ in July, Zelensky says.

⚡️Russia attacks https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-on-myrhorod-military-airfield-official-confirms-some-losses/ Myrhorod military airfield, official confirms 'some losses.'

⚡️Ukraine hit ammunition depot https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hits-ammunition-depot-in-russian-occupied-crimea/ in Russian-occupied Crimea, Air Force confirms.

⚡️Kazakh opposition activist dies https://kyivindependent.com/kazakh-activist-dies-in-kyiv-after-assassination-attempt/ in Kyiv after assassination attempt.

⚡️ NATO plans https://kyivindependent.com/nato-plans-to-establish-new-post-in-kyiv-trump-proof-ukraine-aid-wsj-reports/ to establish new post in Kyiv, 'Trump-proof' Ukraine aid, WSJ reports.
NATO plans to establish a senior representative post in Kyiv, as well as a new command in Germany to coordinate assistance for Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on July 1, citing U.S. and allied officials.

⚡️ Russia not elected to one of UN principal organs https://kyivindependent.com/russia-not-elected-to-one-of-main-un-principal-organs-kuleba-says/ Kuleba says.
Russia has not been elected to the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced on July 1 on X.

⚡️Russia deployed https://kyivindependent.com/russia-deployed-attack-submarines-by-irish-sea-on-2-occasions-sources-tell-bloomberg/ attack submarines close to Irish Sea on 2 occasions, sources tell Bloomberg.

⚡️ EU introduces 'emergency brake https://kyivindependent.com/eu-emergency-brake-on-sugar-eggs/ on eggs, sugar imports from Ukraine.

⚡️Yermak: Grain from Ukraine program to expand https://kyivindependent.com/yermak-grain-from-ukraine-program-to-expand-further-strengthening-global-food-security-efforts/ further, strengthening global food security efforts.

⚡️Ukrenergo: Energy situation in Ukraine expected to improve https://kyivindependent.com/ukrenergo-energy-situation-expected-to-improve-in-august/ in August

⚡️Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria start demining https://kyivindependent.com/turkey-romania-bulgaria-sign-deal-on-black-sea-mine-clearance-2/ operations to foster Ukraine exports.

⚡️Zelensky says https://kyivindependent.com/ratio-of-ukrainian-russian-military-personnel-losses-in-war-is-1-to-6-zelensky-says/ Russian casualties six times larger than those of Ukraine.

⚡️Finland approves https://kyivindependent.com/finland-approves-defense-pact-with-us/ defense pact with US.

⚡️Source: Ukrainian cyberattack leaves https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-cyberattack/ at least 250,000 consumers without connection in Russian-occupied territories. The attack reportedly affected both the networks of consumers and the networks of operators that used the impacted infrastructure on Russian-occupied territories. Representatives of Russian providers call it "the most powerful DDoS attack they have ever experienced," the HUR said.

⚡️Deputy Prosecutor General, accused of illicit enrichment, resigns https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-prosecutor-general-accused-of-illicit-enrichment-resigns/

As Russian tank losses in Ukraine continue to mount, here's what you need to know https://kyivindependent.com/as-russian-tank-losses-in-ukraine-continue-to-mount-heres-what-you-need-to-know/

At the start of the full-scale invasion Russia was estimated to have around 3,300 operational tanks, suggesting that all those that initially drove into Ukraine and then some, have been destroyed over the course of two-and-a-half years.
It's impossible to know for certain exactly how many tanks Russia has lost during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, so any figures need to be treated as estimates. Further complicating matters is what exactly Ukraine's General Staff counts as a "tank," with Ukraine's official count being plausible, yet most likely misleading.

Only 44% of Ukrainians believe that there is unity in society, according to a survey released on July 2 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). https://kyivindependent.com/less-than-half-of-ukrainians-say-society-is-united-survey-finds/

⚡️Ukraine-born Congresswoman Spartz charged with a weapons violation at Dulles Aiport in Virginia, an airport spokesperson confirmed to NBC News on July 1.

⚡️1 killed, 7 injured after Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast
⚡️Death toll of Russia's June 28 attack on Dnipro rises to 2.
⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 4, injure 42 over past day.
⚡️ Russian attack on Kherson injures 5 civilians.
⚡️Russian attack on Nikopol kills 2 elderly women, injures 9.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

• JUL 2, 2024

■ Record number of combat engagements, casualties above 7-day average ■ Equipment losses stay high; record 7-day artillery losses ■ Increased strikes on both sides, strike ratio stays in single-digits

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

A bipartisan delegation of US congressmen has arrived in Kyiv, reported US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. Among them is Mike Turner, the head of the Intelligence Committee of the US House of Representatives, who is also visiting on a working visit.

✈️ Democrats in the US House of Representatives have called for more Ukrainians to be trained on the F-16. Led by Rep. Schiff, the lawmakers support Ukraine's request to train 10 more Ukrainian F-16 pilots this year. In a new letter, they are asking Defense Secretary Austin to grant this request.

The Ukrainian Delta combat system has been successfully integrated with the Polish Topaz fire control system, used in the Krab howitzers and Rak mortars of the Ministry of Defense's Armed Forces.
For the first time, the Ukrainian system functioned as a hub for collecting, updating, and supplementing data with missing information, which was then transferred to the Polish system. This integration created a complete understanding of the situation and demonstrated the ability to securely transfer data with limited access.
"As a result, the Ukrainian Delta military ecosystem successfully managed the task and confirmed compatibility with Topaz and many other NATO systems. This year, the Delta system team successfully tested five different interoperability standards and passed all tests," said Deputy Minister Kateryna Chernohorenko.

The first Dutch F-16 fighters may be sent to Ukraine "soon," according to Defense Minister Kaisa Ollongren, as reported by De Telegraaf.
"The Netherlands has handed over 24 F-16 fighter jets to the Ukrainians, who desperately need these planes to defend against Russian air attacks. Exactly when the fighter jets will go to Ukraine remains a secret. The House of Representatives will be informed confidentially," Ollongren said.

🏫 Zelenskyy and Orbán agreed to open the first school for Ukrainian-speaking children in Hungary.

Poland has opened the European transportation market for Ukrzaliznytsia, RailFreight reports.
The company "Ukrainian Railway Freight Poland," the Polish subsidiary of "Ukrzaliznytsia," received a license to fully enter the European rail freight transportation market.
This marks another step towards the full European integration of Ukrzaliznytsia.
The Polish subsidiary of Ukrzaliznytsia will focus on increasing the volume of cargo transportation through Polish-Ukrainian border crossings. In the future, the company aims to operate on both standard European and broad gauge tracks.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

😡Russians have published another video showing the destruction of a Ukrainian Su-27 at the airfield in Myrhorod
The video was taken from a reconnaissance drone that flew at least 150 kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory from the border. This is the second such attack on this airfield in the last 2 weeks.
The exact number of lost aircraft is currently impossible to determine, as the Russians edited the video in two parts.
"There was information about the presence of a Russian reconnaissance aircraft in the air, and in advance. However, no proper measures were taken. Starting with negligence, continuing with the lack of shelters for aviation, and ending with the lack of personnel due to sending them to the infantry," writes activist Serhiy Sternenko.

On July 1, Russia assumed the presidency of the UN Security Council.
At Russia's initiative, the Security Council will discuss the conflict in the Middle East, in particular the situation in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, said that there are no plans to consider the issue of Ukraine this month, but that any member can initiate its consideration.

🔥A military base is on fire in Kursk, Russia
OSINT researchers write https://x.com/blinzka/status/1808060791557419365 that the 3754th Central Aviation Technical Base (military unit 13830), which houses a large number of vehicles that service aviation, is on fire.

The occupiers shelled Nikopol, killing two women (61 and 86 years old) and wounding nine people. Among them are boys aged 9 and 17. Residential buildings, educational institutions, and an outpatient clinic were damaged. Shops, a beauty salon, and cars were also damaged.

Russian motorcycle division, near Vuhledar, photo by 72nd Mechanized Brigade [why so many motorbikes?!]

Russian motorcycle division, near Vuhledar, photo by 72nd Mechanized Brigade [why so many motorbikes?!]

Talk elsewhere is it’s down to a general shortage of mechanized transport..they’re short of armoured personnel carriers, short of lorries, so issue lots of bikes……

When you look at the large losses day after day after day, well, they have to run out of APCs sometime ...

This is correct. They wouldn't be using motorbikes if they had safer transportation available.

APCs and trucks are easily targeted, so they've taken heavy losses. The only advantage of motorbikes is that they allow the soldiers riding them to disperse. On the other hand, there's no protection from indirect fire like mortars or artillery, or small arms fire.

Re Orban's visit, it's reported that he's there pushing for Zelinsky to accept a ceasefire, which oddly enough would disproportionately benefit the Russians. I know, quite the surprise for Orban.

news.liga.net/en/politics/news/orban-asks-zelenskyy-to-consider-ceasefire-and-negotiations-in-kyiv

https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trumps-hush-money-sentencing-postponed-13162579

Well fuck. I know in the grand scheme of things it wasn’t the ‘big one’ but gutted we don’t get to see him squirm whilst he’s sentenced.

It seems like there's little good news atm but Ive read two articles that point out just how very low on people Russia is to send to the war. Hence why they are trying so hard to hire Africans, SE Asians and now are getting N Korean soldiers.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4741922-its-getting-harder-for-putin-to-find-russians-willing-to-die-for-him-in-ukraine/

there was another too from a slightly different angle, but lost it.

Ukraine is struggling badly for manpower now but so is Russia especially as Russia is running out of hardware in some cases and using human waves. The Kharkiv offensive seems to have had massive manpower losses and the gains around Chasiv Yar etc are made apparently mostly by human waves.

Russia seems to be waiting for the West to fall apart (although I still think that a pile of nationalist countries in the EU could be bad news for Russia itself), but the clock is ticking for Russia as well as the West.