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Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

1000 replies

MagicFox · 21/06/2024 21:11

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
278
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 28/06/2024 19:29

So long as his decisions are to appoint the right people, I think he's a pretty good choice, actually.

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 19:39

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 28/06/2024 19:29

So long as his decisions are to appoint the right people, I think he's a pretty good choice, actually.

He’s certainly the better choice….. lord help us all if Trump wins.

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 19:45

@MissConductUS do you think they’ll replace Biden?

MissConductUS · 28/06/2024 20:11

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 19:45

@MissConductUS do you think they’ll replace Biden?

It will depend on whether the Democratic leadership can convince Jill Biden and others close to Joe Biden that stepping down is best. If he doesn't do so voluntarily, it's very unlikely that they will be able to force him out of the race.

His campaign advisors have committed political malpractice. They knew this was a very likely outcome because they knew exactly his cognitive acuity. And they let him get up on that stage for 90 minutes anyway. They have acted against the interests of the country, their political party, and their boss. They will never work in Washington again. They'll be lucky to wind up as estate agents in New Jersey.

MissConductUS · 28/06/2024 21:49

Getting back to the non-political battlefield for a moment, there are reports that the 40 year old ATACMS system has been used against Russia's spiffy new, state of the art S-500 air defense system, and the S-500 lost. This awaits confirmation.

This is more plausible than you might think. The S-500 is optimized for very long-range targets, and the Russians have not deployed shorter-range systems to protect the S-400 and S-300 systems, probably due to a shortage of those systems.

Ukraine May Have Hit Russia's $600 Million S-500 SAM System With ATACMS - Rumors began to circulate on social media on Friday afternoon that, a Ukrainian ATACMS strike had destroyed elements of the S-500 battery in an unidentified location.

ATACMS Struck Russia's Newest S-500 'Prometheus' SAM System—Reports

blueshoes · 28/06/2024 21:57

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-27-2024

Key Takeaways:

  1. Russian forces have sustained the tempo of their offensive operations in the Toretsk direction since activating in the area on June 18 and likely aim to reduce a Ukrainian salient in the area, but there is little current likelihood of rapid Russian gains near Toretsk. Russian forces have committed only limited forces to this operation so far, which suggests that Russian forces continue to prioritize gradual advances through consistent grinding assaults over operationally significant gains through rapid maneuver.
  2. Slow grinding Russian offensive operations in the Toretsk direction are in line with Russian President Vladimir Putin's articulated theory of victory that posits that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces
  3. Ukraine signed long-term security agreements with the European Union (EU), Lithuania, and Estonia on June 27.
  4. Russian officials and information space actors continue to frame migrants as a threat to Russian society amid ongoing efforts to utilize migrant communities to address Russia's force generation needs.
  5. The Kremlin may be using indirect means to bypass Russian law and codify a state ideology that emphasizes Russia's "traditional" social values while attempting to increase Russia's birth rate.
  6. There is currently no evidence supporting recent reports that North Korea may be sending engineering forces to rear areas of occupied Ukraine, and ISW has been unable to locate the North Korean confirmation that some Western amplifications allege has been made.
  7. Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Siversk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
  8. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on the long-term future of the Russian Navy and Russian shipbuilding on June 26 and noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) plans to introduce more than 40 new ships and vessels to the Russian Navy in 2024.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
blueshoes · 28/06/2024 22:30

His campaign advisors have committed political malpractice. They knew this was a very likely outcome because they knew exactly his cognitive acuity. And they let him get up on that stage for 90 minutes anyway. They have acted against the interests of the country, their political party, and their boss. They will never work in Washington again. They'll be lucky to wind up as estate agents in New Jersey.

I imagine there are some very furious people in Washington right now😭

Usou · 29/06/2024 09:00

blueshoes · 28/06/2024 22:30

His campaign advisors have committed political malpractice. They knew this was a very likely outcome because they knew exactly his cognitive acuity. And they let him get up on that stage for 90 minutes anyway. They have acted against the interests of the country, their political party, and their boss. They will never work in Washington again. They'll be lucky to wind up as estate agents in New Jersey.

I imagine there are some very furious people in Washington right now😭

All of which makes you wonder what their grand strategy is - if indeed there is one.

notimagain · 29/06/2024 09:20

MissConductUS · 28/06/2024 21:49

Getting back to the non-political battlefield for a moment, there are reports that the 40 year old ATACMS system has been used against Russia's spiffy new, state of the art S-500 air defense system, and the S-500 lost. This awaits confirmation.

This is more plausible than you might think. The S-500 is optimized for very long-range targets, and the Russians have not deployed shorter-range systems to protect the S-400 and S-300 systems, probably due to a shortage of those systems.

Ukraine May Have Hit Russia's $600 Million S-500 SAM System With ATACMS - Rumors began to circulate on social media on Friday afternoon that, a Ukrainian ATACMS strike had destroyed elements of the S-500 battery in an unidentified location.

ATACMS Struck Russia's Newest S-500 'Prometheus' SAM System—Reports

That’s one of several reasons for layering systems..it’s unusual to have a long range “heavy” SAM that’s agile enough to cope with targets that detected at short/very short range….looks like the Russians might now limited in their ability to deploy medium/short range systems.

This also maybe a bit of a reminder (to both sides) that there is no such thing as a single wonder weapon.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 29/06/2024 09:36

I was wondering if/how that system would be damaged. Hopefully it'll be confirmed

MissConductUS · 29/06/2024 12:06

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 29/06/2024 09:36

I was wondering if/how that system would be damaged. Hopefully it'll be confirmed

They will have used the ATACMS version with cluster munitions. If enough of those explode on or near the air defense system, they will wreck the electronics, cut the electrical and signal cables, and cause secondary explosions in the missiles loaded on the launcher or stored nearby. And kill the crews, of course.

I hope I've understood your question correctly.

notimagain · 29/06/2024 12:35

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 29/06/2024 09:36

I was wondering if/how that system would be damaged. Hopefully it'll be confirmed

Thing to be aware of is it is impossible to harden/armour the really important bits of a radar system - hide scanner/antennas behind armour and they can’t radiate or receive, so best you can do is protect from the weather/dirt with something like glass fiber…

Most command vehicles are in thin skinned trucks, possibly the only thing that might have some protection is the missiles themselves if tube mounted, but if the radar/command systems be gone they are useless.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 29/06/2024 13:23

Thanks for the answers. I would have expected it to be intensely protected actually! I guess the protections were overwhelmed too with the cluster bombs?

If this is true then it seems possible the Kerch bridge might be taken out again, I guess, although apparently the new rail link is carrying much more military hardware now. But it would be one hell of a loss of face for Russia.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 29/06/2024 13:36

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 19:39

He’s certainly the better choice….. lord help us all if Trump wins.

I am fascinated by the general distaste for Biden: what has he done that's so wrong/despicable/incompetent? The only thing I can think of is that he was forced to implement Trump's horrendous plan for leaving Afghanistan pell-mell and at the behest of the Taliban. If I were for example on insulin, or an ex-student who had been paying through the nose for my education for years and years, I would pray for blessings on him every night on my knees.

In any event, dissing him seems somehow anti-Ukraine: he clearly intends to continue to support Ukraine, Trump clearly does not. And for each person casting doubts on Biden, the likelihood of Trump not losing by a really large margin increases.

Natsku · 29/06/2024 14:46

Its not a distaste for Biden, its an acceptance that he just cannot carry on any more, his cognitive decline is too great. And because he is still carrying on, there's a real risk he'll give the election to Trump on a platter.
Once again, I don't understand how he was allowed to run.

Igotjelly · 29/06/2024 14:52

Natsku · 29/06/2024 14:46

Its not a distaste for Biden, its an acceptance that he just cannot carry on any more, his cognitive decline is too great. And because he is still carrying on, there's a real risk he'll give the election to Trump on a platter.
Once again, I don't understand how he was allowed to run.

This. He’s had years of excellent service to his nation but he’s just too old and doddery now to properly run the country and certainly to win over the necessary voters.

Igotjelly · 29/06/2024 14:55

Although frankly I’d still take old and doddery over narcissistic and evil 🤷‍♀️

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 29/06/2024 14:59

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine hits https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hits-russian-space-sommunications-center-in-occupied-crimea-military-says/ Russian space surveillance and communications center in occupied Crimea, military says

⚡️Vienna has become https://kyivindependent.com/vienna-has-become-russias-new-espionage-hub-wsj-says/ 'Russia's new espionage hub,' intelligence officials tell WSJ.

⚡️IMF approves https://kyivindependent.com/imf-approves-2-2-billion-in-funding-for-ukraine/ $2.2 billion in funding for Ukraine through Extended Fund Facility.

⚡️Ukraine working https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-working-to-secure-guaranteed-military-assistance-from-nato-deputy-pm-says/ to secure 'guaranteed' military funding agreement from NATO allies, Deputy PM says.

⚡️Belarus says it is reinforcing https://kyivindependent.com/putin-gifted-kim-russian-made-luxury-car-made-by-company-that-uses-south-korean-parts-reuters-says/ security at Ukrainian border after claims of 'security incidents.' The Belarusian border service claimed earlier in the day that border police had intercepted a drone that had crossed into the country from Ukraine in order to obtain information about Belarusian border infrastructure.

Belarus Weekly: US designates Belarus as State Sponsor of Human Trafficking, highlighting forced labor, complicity in abduction of Ukrainian children, and worsening migration crisis at the EU border. (https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-belarusian-propagandists-granted-accreditation-to-2024-paris-olympics/

⚡️Updated: US to announce https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-announce-150-million-military-aid-package-to-ukraine-ap-reports/ $150 million military aid package to Ukraine, including air defense missiles, Reuters reports. The matter said that HAWK air defense intercept missiles will be also included in the aid package that is now expected to be unveiled on July 1.

⚡️Czechia, Ukraine to sign https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-ukraine-to-sign-bilateral-security-agreement-on-july-18/ bilateral security agreement on July 18.

⚡️Putin calls to resume production https://kyivindependent.com/putin-calls-to-resume-production-of-intermediate-range-missiles/ of short and intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles on June 28, in response to what Putin says is the United States deploying mid-range missiles around the world.

⚡️Law enforcement agency to investigate https://kyivindependent.com/law-enforcement-agency-to-investigate-case-of-ukrainian-general-accused-of-heavy-losses-media-reports/ Lieutenant General Yurii Sodol's command of Ukrainian troops during the Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainska Pravda reported on June 29.

⚡️Ukrainian partisans claim they located air defense system protecting Putin's dacha https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-partisans-claim-they-located-air-defense-system-protecting-putins-dacha-in-sochi/ in Sochi.

⚡️Foreign Ministry hails https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-ministry-hails-google-translates-addition-of-crimean-tatar-language/ Google Translate's addition of Crimean Tatar language
The statement comes a few days after Google announced its "largest expansion" of its free online translation tool, Google Translate, which saw the addition of 110 new languages.

⚡️Spotify removes https://kyivindependent.com/spotify-removes-music-by-pro-war-russian-singers/ music by pro-war Russian singers.

⚡️Lithuanian customs discover https://kyivindependent.com/lithuanian-customs-discover-scheme-to-violate-sanctions-export-cars-to-russia/ scheme to violate sanctions, export cars to Russia.

⚡️1 killed, 5 injured in Russia's attack https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-attack-damages-residential-building-in-dnipro-casualties-reported/ on residential building in Dnipro

⚡️Ukrainians, Crimean Tatar activist kept in Russian captivity for years, freed https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-brings-back-10-prisoners-from-russian-captivity-including-crimean-tatar-activist-dzhelial/ in prisoner swap. Ukraine has brought back 10 people from Russian captivity, including Crimean Tatar activist Nariman Dzhelial.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • JUN 29, 2024
■ Combat engagements at all-time high while casualties are below 7-day average ■ Equipment stays above average; good APV & artillery losses ■ Heavy 🇷🇺 shelling continues & more strikes on both sides
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
Igotjelly · 29/06/2024 15:05

Assuming for a second that Trump is the next President I do wonder if his narcissism might be the key to him supporting Ukraine. If they (the Ukrainians and other western leaders) can make Trump think he’s acting as the saviour and that it’s all his idea he might just do the right thing, all be it for the wrong reasons. I think Mark Rutte understands Trump’s character well and that might be a saving grace.

Natsku · 29/06/2024 15:06

Igotjelly · 29/06/2024 14:55

Although frankly I’d still take old and doddery over narcissistic and evil 🤷‍♀️

Yeah true, its not like Biden would actually be making the decisions.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 29/06/2024 15:10

UNITED24 Media Telegram highlights

The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have agreed to support Russia's initiative to create a grain exchange for the association. This new exchange will enable member countries to settle transactions in their national currencies, rather than relying on traditional reserve currencies like the US dollar.
This initiative reflects the significant agricultural contribution of BRICS countries, which collectively possess about 30% of the world's arable land. They produce approximately 40% of the world's grain crops, 50% of its fish, and 50% of its dairy products.

The Ukrainian army's ammunition supplies have significantly improved in recent weeks, particularly with regard to 155-millimeter artillery shells, according to several sources within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as reported by AFP.
A Ukrainian sergeant with the call sign "Luntik" noted that the situation has markedly improved in the past month. Previously, his unit was rationed to six shells per gun per day, but now they can use up to 40 shells per day. In particularly active conflict zones like the Kharkiv region, there are no restrictions on ammunition use at all.

The US Army has signed a multi-year, $4.5 billion contract with Lockheed Martin to supply Patriot air defense systems, according to Reuters.

Austria plans to construct a new gas pipeline to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, announced Austrian Finance Minister Magnus Brunner.

The Burshtyn thermal power station in the Ivano-Frankivsk region, which sustained heavy damage from Russian shelling, has been deemed irreparable, according to Svitlana Onyshchuk, the head of the Ivano-Frankivsk Regional Military Administration, during an interview on the radio.
Onyshchuk stated that the Russian forces targeted the TPP more than 12 times, resulting in its severe destruction. As a consequence, the city of Burshtyn faces the risk of being without heat and hot water during the upcoming winter months. To mitigate this, the city has taken steps to allocate six boiler rooms specifically for social facilities and the general population.

All destroyed thermal power plants will be restored, but this will take time, according to DTEK. Russia has attacked the company's thermal power plants over 180 times, with some sustaining damage so severe that they cannot be quickly returned to operation. The losses exceed $350 million. By the end of the year, DTEK plans to invest $100 million of its own funds in repairs.

Russian propagandists have been disseminating anti-Ukrainian cartoons, falsely claiming their production by France, but have made notable errors that reveal their true origin, as reported by BBC Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 29/06/2024 15:16

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Zelensky said that Ukraine is preparing a "clear and detailed" plan to end the war, which will be ready this year.
Also, according to him, in the near future Ukraine will present its detailed vision for energy, food security and exchanges.

The President of Ukraine signed Law No. 10439 on the reboot of the Bureau of Economic Security
This was one of the conditions for Ukraine in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Fund Facility program. EU support is also tied to this reform.

Two Redemptorist fathers were released from Russian captivity. They are Ivan Levytsky and Bohdan Geleta, priests of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church. They were taken prisoner in Berdiansk on November 16, 2022. They were arrested, then some military items were planted in the church, and accused of illegal possession of weapons. There were reports that they were being tortured mercilessly to extract a confession to a crime they did not commit.

Russian troops killed three people and wounded four in Donetsk Oblast
💥 Two settlements in the Lyman community came under fire: in Zarichne, Russians killed three people, and in Torske, they wounded one person.
💥 In Niu York, two people were injured by shelling, and another was wounded in Kurakhivka.

"Thank you, Russia, for ruining my life," an inscription on a building in Chasiv Yar reads.
📷Oleg Petrasiuk for 24th Mechanized Brigade / Instagram

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 29/06/2024 15:42

Natsku · 29/06/2024 14:46

Its not a distaste for Biden, its an acceptance that he just cannot carry on any more, his cognitive decline is too great. And because he is still carrying on, there's a real risk he'll give the election to Trump on a platter.
Once again, I don't understand how he was allowed to run.

What cognitive decline, though? That he was unable to counter a tsunami of bullshit and lies thrown at him by someone who clearly has dementia doesn't seem to me to be any more evidence of cognitive decline than the fact that he has a stammer is. I would be hard-pressed to know which "fact" of Trump's to dispute first in such circumstances, and so would any sane person.

He has done a good job since 2021, and i have seen no particular signs he is not capable of continuing to do so. Not everyone of 85 is in the state Trump's father was in by that age, or Trump is now. For instance Jimmy Carter (to name an ex-president) was pretty much absolutely OK in 2009....

Wiki is rather telling about that particular decrepit old codger:
"In July 2007, Carter joined Nelson Madela in Johannesburg, South Africa, to announce his participation in The Elders, a group of independent global leaders who work together on peace and human rights issues. After the announcement, Carter participated in visits to Darfur, Sudan, Cyprus, the Korean Peninsula, and the Middle East, among others. He attempted to travel to Zimbabwe in November 2008, but was stopped by President Robert Mugabe's government. In December 2008, Carter met with Syrian President Bashar-al-Assad, and in a June 2012 call with Jeffrey Brown stressed that Egyptian military generals could take full executive and legislative power to form a new constitution favoring themselves if their announced intentions came true.
"On August 10, 2010, Carter traveled to North Korea to secure the release of Aijalon Gomes, successfully negotiating his release."

Being older than Biden is now does not necessarily lead to a person being senile; it certainly didn't in that case. (My repulsive grandfather was fully compos mentis when he died at the age of ninety-five, the old horror.)

Igotjelly · 29/06/2024 17:10

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 29/06/2024 15:42

What cognitive decline, though? That he was unable to counter a tsunami of bullshit and lies thrown at him by someone who clearly has dementia doesn't seem to me to be any more evidence of cognitive decline than the fact that he has a stammer is. I would be hard-pressed to know which "fact" of Trump's to dispute first in such circumstances, and so would any sane person.

He has done a good job since 2021, and i have seen no particular signs he is not capable of continuing to do so. Not everyone of 85 is in the state Trump's father was in by that age, or Trump is now. For instance Jimmy Carter (to name an ex-president) was pretty much absolutely OK in 2009....

Wiki is rather telling about that particular decrepit old codger:
"In July 2007, Carter joined Nelson Madela in Johannesburg, South Africa, to announce his participation in The Elders, a group of independent global leaders who work together on peace and human rights issues. After the announcement, Carter participated in visits to Darfur, Sudan, Cyprus, the Korean Peninsula, and the Middle East, among others. He attempted to travel to Zimbabwe in November 2008, but was stopped by President Robert Mugabe's government. In December 2008, Carter met with Syrian President Bashar-al-Assad, and in a June 2012 call with Jeffrey Brown stressed that Egyptian military generals could take full executive and legislative power to form a new constitution favoring themselves if their announced intentions came true.
"On August 10, 2010, Carter traveled to North Korea to secure the release of Aijalon Gomes, successfully negotiating his release."

Being older than Biden is now does not necessarily lead to a person being senile; it certainly didn't in that case. (My repulsive grandfather was fully compos mentis when he died at the age of ninety-five, the old horror.)

I have a lot of time for Biden but the person who presented at that debate wasn’t in any fit state to be running any country, never mind the US.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 29/06/2024 17:30

And at the event in North Carolina the following day, when he wasn't being bullyragged by a demented narcissist? That was pretty cogent and competent.

Thing is, I am old enough to remember much the same things about Biden being incompetent because of his age having been said in 2019, and he seems to me to have been an outstanding president in many respects in spite of having a stammer...

I also remember Hillary Biden being "too old" and "too ill" for the job. She didn't get it, so we will never know how she would have done, but this sort of badmouthing is absolutely standard for anyone dealing with Trump.

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