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Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

1000 replies

MagicFox · 21/06/2024 21:11

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
278
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 27/06/2024 15:26

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The Biden administration is specifically easing sanctions against Russia due to fears of rising fuel prices before the presidential election
The Wall Street Journal writes https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/biden-us-gas-prices-iran-russia-oil-4f9a1cf9 about this, citing its sources.
"The president wants to do everything possible to ensure that American consumers have the lowest possible price at the pump because it affects the lives of families," a senior official told reporters.
Analysts say that an example of this policy is the new sanctions against Iran, which were imposed on June 25, and are unlikely to affect prices on the global oil market.
At the same time, the publication noted that some U.S. Treasury Department officials are disappointed that such weak restrictions are being imposed on Russian and Iranian oil exports.

Pyongyang Says https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34893 It Will Send Troops to Ukraine Within a Month
The June 19 defense pact signed between Russia and North Korea included a promise to provide military assistance to one another – within days Pyongyang said it was sending troops to Ukraine.

The Washington Post has learned https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/26/ukraine-army-sodol-zelensky-syrsky/ the details of a complaint that Azov Brigade Chief of Staff Bohdan "Tavr" Krotevych wrote against former Joint Forces Commander Yuriy Sodol. In general, he is accused of failing to defend Mariupol. Tavr also says that Sodol:
▫️did not lead the defense of Mariupol and did not spend a single hour in the city, but despite this, he was awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine;
▫️did not supply the Azov brigade with ammunition and did not ensure that Mariupol had defensive structures before the Russian offensive;
▫️commanding the eastern front, ordered Azov to advance, although the brigade did not have enough artillery ammunition to do so. After the soldiers refused to do so, an investigation was launched against the Azov commander.
The publication also cites a situation when one of the commanders asked Sodol for further instructions, but heard in response: "We're screwed"

🇺🇦🇭🇺Ukraine Ready to Implement All 11 Hungarian Demands on Minority Rights
This was stated by the Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine Olha Stefanishyna during her speech at the first Intergovernmental Conference on Ukraine's accession to the EU.

Pyongyang Says It Will Send Troops to Ukraine Within a Month

The June 19 defense pact signed between Russia and North Korea included a promise to provide military assistance to one another – within days Pyongyang said it was sending troops to Ukraine.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34893

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 07:29

It’s going to be the Donald isn’t it? 😫

MagicFox · 28/06/2024 07:52

I've seen clips of the debate and I'm afraid now I really think it will

OP posts:
MagicFox · 28/06/2024 07:52

That these are the options is mind boggling. Surely the US has some capable grown ups that can run?!

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WinterMorn · 28/06/2024 08:08

I am in the US at the moment and watched the whole thing. It was awful. Biden came across as hesitant, stumbled over his words and at one point even confused Trump and Putin. Trump lied, blagged and bragged but did it with confidence and gusto. I really don’t see how Biden can come back from this, and it worries me greatly.

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 08:09

I’m listening to The Rest is Politics’ US sister podcast and they’ve just said unless something monumental happens with Trump’s health then he’s almost certain to be the next President.

1dayatatime · 28/06/2024 08:15

I can really see Trump cutting a deal with Putin whereby Russia gets to keep the eastern provinces and Crimea plus a commitment that Ukraine won't join NATO under a Trump administration (which is only 5 years anyway so meaningless).

If Zelensky refuses then Trump cuts military aid.

The real question then becomes what do the European allies do because they don't have the military capability to replace the US.

L1ttledrummergirl · 28/06/2024 08:16

WinterMorn · 28/06/2024 08:08

I am in the US at the moment and watched the whole thing. It was awful. Biden came across as hesitant, stumbled over his words and at one point even confused Trump and Putin. Trump lied, blagged and bragged but did it with confidence and gusto. I really don’t see how Biden can come back from this, and it worries me greatly.

To be fair, it is easy to confuse Trump and Putin. Both seem to want to make America a vassal of Russia (and with current events, China and North Korea).

I hope there are enough intelligent American voters to realise that while Biden sets the tone and direction of policies, it's other people who implement them, and vote to keep Trump out.

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 08:20

I honestly think I might need to turn off the news for the next 5 years 😭

WinterMorn · 28/06/2024 08:20

@L1ttledrummergirl sadly, having sat through it all I don’t think there is any doubt that Trump will win.

L1ttledrummergirl · 28/06/2024 08:25

1dayatatime · 28/06/2024 08:15

I can really see Trump cutting a deal with Putin whereby Russia gets to keep the eastern provinces and Crimea plus a commitment that Ukraine won't join NATO under a Trump administration (which is only 5 years anyway so meaningless).

If Zelensky refuses then Trump cuts military aid.

The real question then becomes what do the European allies do because they don't have the military capability to replace the US.

I think Europe picked up the slack while America dithered last year. If Trump tries to unilaterally throw Ukraine and Europe under the Russian bus he will seriously piss off his own allies.

It will mean 5 additional years of stalemate in Ukraine as Ukraine receives enough weaponry to defend itself from further big losses, but not enough to remove Russia from its territory. There will be unnecessary loss of life, and a general grinding down of living standards for Europeans which will create a massive rift between them and America. America will become isolated from other Western countries as ordinary people push their governments to do business elsewhere.

Ultimately Russia will still lose, they'll just drag America down with them.

heldinadream · 28/06/2024 08:30

We're in deep shit. Everywhere. French elections looking worrying too.
I'd like, though, to applaud Channel 4 News for its excellent undercover job on Reform UK yesterday. 👏

DrBlackbird · 28/06/2024 08:44

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 08:20

I honestly think I might need to turn off the news for the next 5 years 😭

I said that to my DH yesterday after one particularly tragic "news" item.

It does feel to me that social media has broken the world. What minimal positive gains from being ‘connected’ are lost with the online manipulation, data extraction, and damage done to the young and the vulnerable. FB and other platforms were instrumental in Trump winning the 2016 election and if Trump had not won then, we’d be looking at such a different world now. 🫤

DrBlackbird · 28/06/2024 08:51

If Trump tries to unilaterally throw Ukraine and Europe under the Russian bus he will seriously piss off his own allies.

I cling to your positivity @L1ttledrummergirl but fear that Trump’s allies are Putin and Bolsonaro and Milei and Orban and that he would greet Le Pen with open arms. Likeminded authoritarian bordering on fascist dictatorships.

His allies don’t include the UK or western liberal Europe….

MagicFox · 28/06/2024 09:08

I agree re Trump finding affinity with the likes of Orban. That's where the US influence in Europe will begin to centre, and not in a good way

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MagicFox · 28/06/2024 09:13

I think the Democrats need to go for the nuclear option and replace Biden, not with Harris but somebody else. Biden would have to get behind it. A narrative could be created. I know it's unprecedented and would be difficult but the stakes are so high....

OP posts:
heldinadream · 28/06/2024 09:24

MagicFox · 28/06/2024 09:13

I think the Democrats need to go for the nuclear option and replace Biden, not with Harris but somebody else. Biden would have to get behind it. A narrative could be created. I know it's unprecedented and would be difficult but the stakes are so high....

Yes this.
My suggestion - Jamie Raskin.
I'm not American so I have no idea if he's even in the eligible category (I get confused between the Senate and the Congress, I know, I'm a doofus).
I also really like Amy Klobuchar who ran in the primaries time before last I think it was.
But these are just a couple of US Democrats I have a special fondness for.
Then there's Pete Buttigieg (I probably spelt that wrong).
I think Bernie is also too old and too unpopular to solve any of this.

MissConductUS · 28/06/2024 09:30

I wasn't feeling well last night, so I went to bed early and skipped the debate. I've now seen the highlights. There's no way for the Democrats to spin this. Biden was awful last night, but I don't know if they can get him or Jill Biden to accept that this is not fixable. No one wants to leave the White House and the prestige of the office. There will certainly be some flash polls in the next few days.

Replacing Harris will be equally difficult. She's a woman and a minority. Many Democrats will bristle at the idea of her stepping aside, despite her awful poll numbers and her reputation as one of the worst politicians in recent memory.

It's a pickle, that's for sure. The next few days will be very interesting.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 28/06/2024 09:32

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 08:20

I honestly think I might need to turn off the news for the next 5 years 😭

This.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 28/06/2024 11:41

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️FT: Ukraine, US, Israel in talks to send up to 8 Patriot systems to Kyiv.
The outlines of the deal, which is not yet finalized, have been discussed between ministers and senior officials of the three nations, the FT's sources said. https://kyivindependent.com/ft-ukraine-us-israel-in-talks-to-send-up-to-8-patriot-systems-to-kyiv/

⚡️European MPs call on https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-calls-on-charles-michel-to-suspend-hungarys-presidency-of-eu-council/ Charles Michel to suspend Hungarian presidency of EU Council.
The letter was reportedly signed by 20,000 signatures of EU citizens and published on June 27 on German MEP Freund's account on X.

⚡️US, Russia set for UN Security Council clash over North Korea arms embargo https://kyivindependent.com/us-russia-set-for-un-security-council-clash-over-north-korea-arms-embargo/

Kyiv signed 10-year bilateral security agreements with Estonia and Lithuania at the Brussels summit on June 26, Ukraine's Presidential Office reported. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-signs-long-term-security-deals-with-estonia-lithuania/

⚡️Finland announces $170 million in new military aid https://kyivindependent.com/finland-announces-170-million-in-new-military-aid-for-ukraine/ for Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine repel Russian troops https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-kmocks-out-russian-troops-from-chasiv-yars-neighbourhood-military-says/ from eastern Chasiv Yar neighborhood, military says.

⚡️Kremlin claims 'provocations' from US drones https://kyivindependent.com/kremlin-claims-provocations-from-us-drones-over-black-sea-prepares-potential-response/ over Black Sea, prepares potential response.

⚡️Over 1,000 Russian soldiers https://kyivindependent.com/over-1-000-russian-soldiers-killed-or-wounded-on-average-each-day-in-may-in-ukraine-nyt-reports/ killed or wounded on average each day in May in Ukraine, NYT reports.

⚡️Poland, Czechia, Germany ask EU to help cover expenses https://kyivindependent.com/poland-czechia-germany-ask-eu-to-help-cover-expenses-for-hosting-refugees-from-ukraine-bloomberg-reports/ for hosting refugees from Ukraine, Bloomberg reports.

⚡️Shelling destroys https://kyivindependent.com/shelling-destroys-radiation-monitoring-station-at-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-iaea-reports/ radiation monitoring station at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, IAEA reports.
The loss of the station further limits the Russian-occupied nuclear plant's external capacity to detect radiation release in an emergency.

⚡️Source: Military intelligence stops traffic https://kyivindependent.com/source-military-intelligence-stops-traffic-on-kerch-bridge-collapses-accounting-systems-in-crimea/ on Kerch bridge, collapses accounting systems in Crimea.
Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) has carried out a cyberattack on several facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea on June 27, a source in the agency confirmed to the Kyiv Independent.
The attacks targeted the servers of propaganda media, telecom operators, and the system for registering and controlling traffic on the Kerch (Crimean) Bridge, according to the source.

⚡️Russia attacks Kharkiv https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-kharkiv-with-fab-500-bomb-for-first-time-injuring-4/ with FAB-500 gliding bomb for first time, injuring 4.

⚡️Russia attacks Kharkiv https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-kharkiv-with-fab-500-bomb-for-first-time-injuring-4/ with FAB-500 gliding bomb for first time, injuring 4.
⚡️2 killed, 2 injured after Russian shelling of Kurakhove.

⚡️Drone hits oil depot in Tambov Oblast, Russian official says.
⚡️Another Russian Su-25 downed Ukraine's National Guard claims.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • JUN 28, 2024
■ Engagements & casualties below 7-day average ■ Big equipment losses; incl. 24 tanks & 3 air defence systems ■ Massive 🇷🇺 shelling despite big artillery losses ■ Fewer strikes on both sides, strike ratio could be better
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 28/06/2024 11:52

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The USA, Israel, and Ukraine are negotiating the transfer of up to eight Patriot air defense systems to Kyiv, according to the Financial Times.
Sources indicate that these systems could be transferred from Israel to the USA and then delivered to Ukraine. Until now, Israel has officially declared that it will not provide military aid to Ukraine. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last year did not rule out the possibility of transferring the Iron Dome air defense system to Kyiv.

The Pentagon successfully disabled the operation of hundreds of "illegal" Starlink terminals used by Russian forces on the front lines, according to Defense Express. SpaceX actively collaborated with the U.S. military to counter the unauthorized use of these terminals.
Russians were able to acquire communication equipment by ordering through intermediaries and paying with non-Russian bank cards. To address this issue, SpaceX plans to introduce a "white list" system, ensuring that only officially sanctioned Starlink units for the Armed Forces of Ukraine will remain operational, while others will be blocked.

Ukraine has received 50,000 units of ammunition as part of the Czech initiative, according to iRozhlas. This delivery is part of the 180,000 units financed by Germany, as reported by the Czech Ministry of Defense. The total supply of 500,000 projectiles is financially secured and is expected to be delivered in monthly tranches of several tens of thousands each until the end of the year.

President Zelenskyy outlined five key components to increase pressure on Russia during a meeting with EU leaders:

  1. Military Support: Zelenskyy emphasized the need for artillery, shells, and financing of military supplies, urging EU leaders to ensure all promises of support are kept.
  2. Air Defense and Long-Range Capabilities: He called for strengthening Ukraine's air defense systems and enabling the country to target deep into Russian territory.
  3. Confiscation of Russian Assets: Zelenskyy advocated for finding effective ways to confiscate Russian assets in the West and called for the maintenance and strengthening of sanctions against Russian oligarchs.
  4. Energy Network Protection and Restoration: He requested EU assistance in protecting and restoring Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
  5. Diplomatic Pressure: Zelenskyy urged for increased diplomatic pressure on Russia through the "peace formula" and the development of a comprehensive plan for its implementation.
These components aim to weaken Russia's war efforts and support Ukraine's defense and recovery

Germany plans to continue and increase the training of Ukrainian soldiers in 2025, as stated by Andreas Marlow, the head of the EU Command.
He noted that starting next year, more Ukrainian army recruits can undergo basic training in Germany. Marlow mentioned that they have received additional training requests as Ukraine continues to mobilize, emphasizing the importance of basic training, which is primarily conducted by Great Britain.

South Korea has announced the expansion of its export controls for Russia and Belarus, adding 243 dual-use items to the list. This increases the total number of controlled goods to 1,402.
The new controls will cover metal cutting equipment, components for optical devices, and sensors, and are expected to be implemented by the end of August. South Korea's National Security Adviser Jang Ho Jin indicated that these measures are linked to the recent strategic partnership agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang

For the first time, Russian forces used a FAB-500 aerial bomb equipped with the UMPK (Universal Modular Gliding and Correcting) system on Kharkiv, according to the Regional Prosecutor's Office.
This bomb is twice as powerful as the previously used KAB and FAB-250 bombs, marking a significant escalation in the intensity of the attacks on the city.

🇱🇹 Lithuania will help Ukraine reform the system of military education.
The First Deputy Minister of Defense emphasized that the training should correspond to the realities faced by servicemen on the battlefield.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that a radiation monitoring station near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) was destroyed due to shelling.
The station was located approximately 16 kilometers from the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Presently, only 4 out of the 14 such facilities that were operational before Russia's full-scale invasion are still functioning.

In Denmark, 50 Ukrainian specialists have already been trained to service the F-16 aircraft as they prepare to receive the first batch.
The commander of the Danish Air Force, Jan Dam, mentioned that training for the next group of 50 specialists will commence right after the summer break. Additionally, he noted that the first batch of pilots has not yet completed their training.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 28/06/2024 11:57

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇭🇺🇺🇦 Orban approached Zelensky on the EU summit and they had a brief but emotional conversation

A recent Russian propaganda video shows the replacement of Avdiivka's city sign and further hints at intentions to replace Kherson and Zaporizhzhia's signs
This is in line with Russia's established policy of replacing Ukrainian city signs as a first step in an occupation strategy.

🇧🇬Bulgaria's pro-Russian President Rumen Radev refused to lead the Bulgarian delegation to the NATO summit in Washington because of "the position he has to defend on assistance to Ukraine."
Neither the Bulgarian president nor the government has said what exactly these "framework positions" are.

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 11:58

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 28/06/2024 11:57

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇭🇺🇺🇦 Orban approached Zelensky on the EU summit and they had a brief but emotional conversation

A recent Russian propaganda video shows the replacement of Avdiivka's city sign and further hints at intentions to replace Kherson and Zaporizhzhia's signs
This is in line with Russia's established policy of replacing Ukrainian city signs as a first step in an occupation strategy.

🇧🇬Bulgaria's pro-Russian President Rumen Radev refused to lead the Bulgarian delegation to the NATO summit in Washington because of "the position he has to defend on assistance to Ukraine."
Neither the Bulgarian president nor the government has said what exactly these "framework positions" are.

I wonder what sort of emotional. If O was Zelenskyy I could imagine the only emotion I felt would be rage!

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 18:29

Joe Biden is looking and sounding quite on it at the campaign rally he’s currently addressing, what on Earth happened last night!?!

MissConductUS · 28/06/2024 18:46

Igotjelly · 28/06/2024 18:29

Joe Biden is looking and sounding quite on it at the campaign rally he’s currently addressing, what on Earth happened last night!?!

Unfortunately, as President, he needs to be able to make decisions clearly and decisively under pressure. No one will be voting for campaigner in chief.

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