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Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

1000 replies

MagicFox · 21/06/2024 21:11

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
278
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 24/06/2024 19:34

Yeah. You're right, @Igotjelly

It's still frustrating but you are right

Igotjelly · 24/06/2024 19:39

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 24/06/2024 19:31

It's "if it is intentional" that I am unsure about.

Also, that holds so long as we can be absolutely sure this was not a false flag operation – I mean, does anyone seriously think Putin would care about half a dozen children being obliterated if it made the other side in his war look bad, and made it likely that arms for Ukraine might be cut back by the west?

My money would be on genuine accident, since Ukraine has been being quite incredibly careful about who it kills up until now, but the other possibility seems to be, well, a possibility. One with two obvious advantages for Russia.

I agree the question is whether it was an accident (I suspect it was), I don’t believe it was a black swan as there hasn’t been any rebuttal from Ukraine.

I do think in the event of multiple accidents such as this though we risk the US restricting the ways in which Ukraine can use their weapons, at the end of the day they don’t want the optics of US weapons (or parts of weapons) killing Russian children.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 24/06/2024 19:47

The Russian military deliberately targets and bombs schools, hospitals, theatres, play centres, and blocks of flats, and has killed hundreds of Ukrainian children; that has become normal. The Ukrainian military bombs military installations and one of the bombs is pushed out of its course by air defence so that some Russian civilians die, and that is an outrage.

Because it is very rare indeed, it is not normal: therefore it is an outrage.

Yes, a civilised country should be held to higher standards than a barbaric one, but if Ukraine is never to use the weapons in case someone gets hurt unintentionally, where is the point in having the weapons at all?

MissConductUS · 24/06/2024 19:53

Sevastopol harbor is the primary naval base for the Russian Black Sea fleet, and there is a military airfield nearby. If an inbound missile is intercepted, of course, debris will fall nearby. The Russians also failed to give any warning of the attack to civilians nearby. No air raid sirens went off.

There's also some level of assumption of risk. If you can see a naval base that has been attacked repeatedly from the beach you are lounging on during a shooting war, you have assumed some risk.

Contrast this with Russia's routine targeting of apartment buildings, hospitals, and shopping centers. Those are intentional targeting of civilians; the attack on Sevastopol was not.

Igotjelly · 24/06/2024 19:59

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 24/06/2024 19:47

The Russian military deliberately targets and bombs schools, hospitals, theatres, play centres, and blocks of flats, and has killed hundreds of Ukrainian children; that has become normal. The Ukrainian military bombs military installations and one of the bombs is pushed out of its course by air defence so that some Russian civilians die, and that is an outrage.

Because it is very rare indeed, it is not normal: therefore it is an outrage.

Yes, a civilised country should be held to higher standards than a barbaric one, but if Ukraine is never to use the weapons in case someone gets hurt unintentionally, where is the point in having the weapons at all?

I didn’t say once that what Russia does every day isn’t an outrage, it’s abhorrent and horrific and should be seen as such. To be honest I wasn’t even necessarily saying that there won’t be collateral from legitimate use of weapons. What I take issue with, and find a bit distasteful, is posters suggesting that it’s okay if babies and children die because they’re Russian. As if some how there is an acceptable level of dead babies and civilians. There isn’t (in my view).

Februaryfeels · 24/06/2024 20:01

MissConductUS · 24/06/2024 19:53

Sevastopol harbor is the primary naval base for the Russian Black Sea fleet, and there is a military airfield nearby. If an inbound missile is intercepted, of course, debris will fall nearby. The Russians also failed to give any warning of the attack to civilians nearby. No air raid sirens went off.

There's also some level of assumption of risk. If you can see a naval base that has been attacked repeatedly from the beach you are lounging on during a shooting war, you have assumed some risk.

Contrast this with Russia's routine targeting of apartment buildings, hospitals, and shopping centers. Those are intentional targeting of civilians; the attack on Sevastopol was not.

We'll quite. There is a risk particularly as Ukraine has been quite open about its plans for Crimea

I wouldn't be taking my children to a beach in an active war zone

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 24/06/2024 20:08

Igotjelly, what I wrote was "I find it hard to get terribly upset". This is simply a fact: I do. I am sorry if any child is killed, but I am a great deal more upset about ones who are killed deliberately than about ones who are killed by accident.

blueshoes · 24/06/2024 23:12

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

  1. The Islamic State (IS) Northern Caucasus branch Wilayat Kavkaz likely conducted a complex and coordinated attack against churches, synagogues, and law enforcement structures in the Republic of Dagestan on June 23.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukrainian forces of conducting a short-range ATACMS strike against occupied Sevastopol on June 23. Russian milbloggers widely criticized the Russian MoD and Russia’s occupation authorities in Crimea for failing to prevent the strike and sufficiently protect Russian civilians.
  3. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian motorized rifle regiment command post in Nekhoteevka, Belgorod Oblast.
  4. Recent drone footage showing a Russian soldier executing a wounded fellow servicemember exemplifies the brutal culture that is pervasive within the Russian Armed Forces.
  5. South Korea has adopted a firm approach against Russia in the wake of recently intensified Russo-North Korean cooperation, suggesting that Russian efforts to threaten Seoul into withholding aid from Ukraine have failed.
  6. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) detained two former senior employees of the Wagner Group-affiliated Patriot media holding on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Wagner mutiny.
  7. Russian forces recently seized Shumy and advanced near Donetsk City and Robotyne.
  8. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on June 22 officially transferring the Cossack Cadet Corps and the Russian Naval Cadet Corps to the jurisdiction of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
blueshoes · 25/06/2024 11:27

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

  1. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated that Western military assistance is arriving in Ukraine, but that it will likely not arrive at a scale that will significantly impact the frontline situation until at least mid to late July 2024.
  2. Budanov stated that a sufficient quantity of US-provided long-range ATACMS missiles could allow Ukrainian forces to strike the Russian-built Kerch Strait Bridge in occupied Crimea and sever an important Russian ground line of communication (GLOC) between occupied Crimea and Russia.
  3. Current US policy regarding Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons allows Ukraine to strike anywhere within Russian-occupied Ukraine, which presumably includes using long-range ATACMS to strike the portion of the Kerch Strait Bridge within Ukraine's internationally recognized land and maritime borders.
  4. Kremlin officials absurdly attempted to link the June 23 Ukrainian strikes on legitimate military targets in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea and the likely Islamic State (IS) affiliate Wilayat Kavkaz terrorist attack in the Republic of Dagestan.
  5. The Kremlin is attempting to maintain a veneer of stability and normalcy in response to the Dagestan terror attack.
  6. The European Union (EU) adopted its 14th package of sanctions against Russia on June 24, including new restrictions against Russian funding to political parties and other "opinion-forming" organizations and Russian state media broadcasts within the EU.
  7. The EU approved a first tranche of up to 1.4 billion euros (about $1.5 billion) in military assistance for Ukraine from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets.
  8. The Kremlin continued efforts to coopt former Wagner Group personnel by introducing a new bill that would exempt much of the Wagner force from criminal responsibility for their participation in the Wagner armed rebellion on June 23 and 24, 2023.
  9. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced Joint Forces Commander Lieutenant General Yuriy Sodol with Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov on June 24.
  10. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Vovchansk and Starysta, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Toretsk.
  11. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed depriving all Russian military districts of their status as joint headquarters.
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 25/06/2024 15:35

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Breaking: ICC issues arrest warrants for Shoigu, Gerasimov.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) announced on June 25 that it had issued arrest warrants for Russia's Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, and Secretary of the Security Council, former defense minister Sergei Shoigu.
The charges relate to Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, the ICC said. https://kyivindependent.com/breaking-icc-issues-arrest-warrants-for-shoigu-gerasimov/

⚡️European Court of Human Rights finds Russia guilty of violating human rights in occupied Crimea. https://kyivindependent.com/european-court-of-human-rights-finds-russia-guilty-of-violating-human-rights-in-occupied-crimea/

⚡️Zelensky to sign EU-Ukraine security agreement https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-sign-security-agreement-between-ukraine-eu-this-week-in-brussels-media-says/ in Brussels this week.

⚡️Work on 15th sanctions package https://kyivindependent.com/work-on-15th-sanctions-package-against-russia-to-start-immediately-finnish-fm-says/ against Russia to 'start immediately,' Finnish FM says.

⚡️Czech PM confirms Ukraine received first batch of shells under Prague-led initiative. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-pm-confirms/

⚡️US to announce $150 million military aid package to Ukraine, AP reports. https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-announce-150-million-military-aid-package-to-ukraine-ap-reports/

⚡️Ukraine, Moldova begin EU accession talks in Luxembourg. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-moldova-begin-eu-accession-talks-in-luxembourg/

⚡️Zelensky dismisses https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-replaces-lieutenant-general-accused-of-heavy-losses-among-ukrainian-forces-personnel/ Lieutenant General accused by soldiers of heavy losses.
Zelensky announced on June 24 that he had replaced the Commander of the Joint Forces, Lieutenant General Yurii Sodol, with Brigadier General Andrii Hnatov.
Lieutenant Colonel Bohdan Krotevych, one of the Azov Brigade's commanders, said on June 23 that he filed an official complaint to the State Bureau of Investigation calling for an investigation of one of the generals.
"I wrote to the SBI calling for an investigation into one military general, who, in my opinion, has killed more Ukrainian soldiers than any Russian general," he wrote.

⚡️Germany supplies Ukraine with over 40 trucks https://kyivindependent.com/germany-supplies-ukraine-with-over-40-trucks-for-border-guards-on-front-line/ for border guards on front line.

⚡️Multi-story building catches fire https://kyivindependent.com/multi-story-building-catches-fire-in-moscow-oblast-at-least-2-people-die/ in Moscow Oblast, at least 8 people dead.
Moscow Oblast Governor Andrey Vorobyov said that the administrative building of the Platan Research Institute, where electronic devices are manufactured, was on fire at around 3:30 p.m. local time.

⚡️Zelensky: Ukrainian drones have struck https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukrainian-drones-have-struck-over-30-russian-oil-targets/ over 30 Russian oil targets.

⚡️Updated: June 21 attack https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-attacks-4-oil-refineries/ on Krasnodar Krai training center destroyed 120 drones, casualties reported.

Drone attacks against the Russian city of Belgorod and settlements in Belgorod Oblast on June 24 damaged multiple buildings, vehicles, and a gas supply line, while injuring four people, Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed. https://kyivindependent.com/massive-drone-attack-on-belgorod-oblast-damages-buildings-gas-line-russian-governor-claims/

Operatives from Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) detonated an ammunition depot in Russia's Voronezh Oblast on June 25, the agency's press service said. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-says-it-detonated-ammunition-depot-in-russias-voronezh-oblast/

⚡️Ukraine returned only 800 out of about 20,000 children abducted by Russia, minister says. https://kyivindependent.com/out-of-about-20-000-children-abducted-by-russia-800-returned-to-ukraine-minister-says/

Denmark will stop training Ukrainian F-16 pilots by the end of this year as the country transitions to operating F-35 fighter jets, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said on June 24. https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-to-stop-training-ukrainian-f-16-pilots-beyond-2024/

⚡️Education Ministry changes postgraduate enrolment conditions to fight draft evasion https://kyivindependent.com/education-ministry-changes-conditions-of-enrollment-in-educational-institutions-to-fight-draft-evasion/

⚡️Russia has blocked more than 80 European media outlets, Foreign Ministry says. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-blocks-more-than-80-european-media-outlets-in-countermeasure-to-eu-bans/

⚡️Top Trump advisors prepare plan for US to halt military aid to Ukraine unless it agrees to peace talks.
Two top advisors to former U.S. President Donald Trump have proposed a plan that would cease military aid to Ukraine unless it agrees to hold peace negotiations with Russia, Reuters reported on June 25, citing the advisors, retired General Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz. https://kyivindependent.com/top-trump-advisors-prepare-plan-for-us-to-halt-military-aid-to-ukraine-unless-it-agrees-to-peace-talks/

⚡️Sergei Melikov, head of the Dagestan Republic, announced the dismissal of the Sergokalinsky district's head, Magomed Omarov, after his sons were suspected of participating in yesterday’s terrorist attack. https://kyivindependent.com/dagestan-official-removed-after-sons-suspected-of-makhachkala-and-derbent-attacks/

⚡️US will finance https://kyivindependent.com/us-will-finance-printing-of-3-million-textbooks-for-ukrainian-students/ printing of 3 million textbooks for Ukrainian students.
These textbooks, produced in Ukraine, will be distributed to more than 12,000 schools across the country.
This USAID initiative supports Ukraine's publishing industry, following the destruction of the Faktor Druk printing house in Kharkiv by Russian forces.

Ivana Kupala: Ukrainians celebrate https://kyivindependent.com/ivana-kupala-ukrainians-celebrate-midsummer-amidst-war-photos/ midsummer amidst war

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • JUN 25, 2024
■ Record number of combat engagements (data goes back to Feb 23, 2023) ■ Casualties slightly above average, equipment losses below ■ Increased 🇷🇺 strikes & unusally few 🇺🇦 ones result in an unfavorable ratio
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 25/06/2024 15:49

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The leaders of the European Union have agreed to reappoint Ursula von der Leyen as the head of the European Commission, according to the DPA agency.
Additionally, EU leaders have decided to nominate former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa for the position of head of the European Council.
They also agreed to nominate Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas for the role of head of European diplomacy, a position currently held by Josep Borrell.

⚡️ Ukraine lost about 9 gigawatts of generating capacity due to the last seven attacks on its energy infrastructure. This loss is equivalent to the energy consumption of the Netherlands for three months or the combined consumption of Slovakia and the Baltic states.

🇪🇺 EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell confirmed that the EU will allocate €1.4 billion from revenues from Russian assets for weapons for Ukraine.
"Ministers today agreed on the legislative framework for the use of profits from frozen Russian assets to fill the European Peace Facility," he said.

On the night of June 24, the Space Communication Center in temporarily occupied Crimea was struck. This facility supports communication with modern Lotus-S spy satellites and GLONASS navigation satellites, the Russian equivalent of the American GPS system, according to Forbes.
Located in Yevpatoria, this facility was originally constructed in the 1960s and 70s as part of the Soviet space program for communication with lunar and Martian probes.

🇪🇸 Spain handed Ukraine the second batch of anti-aircraft missiles for Patriot air defense systems, — El Mundo

Russia will not stop the war with Ukraine during possible peace talks, if they start, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

The French Armed Forces will not take part in military actions on the territory of Ukraine in the near future.
This was stated by President Macron in response to a question from the host of the Generation Do It Yourself podcast.
"Ministers today agreed on the legislative framework for the use of profits from frozen Russian assets to fill the European Peace Facility," he said.
He stated that these funds will be used for the benefit of Ukraine "in the most expeditious manner."

Belarus and Russia will submit a report on the human rights situation in various countries to the UN and OSCE. The document will be presented on July 3 during the UN Human Rights Council session in Geneva and on July 5 at the OSCE, announced Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov after talks with Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik.
The review covers more than 40 countries, including many EU countries, the United Kingdom, the USA, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Ukraine, and Moldova.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 25/06/2024 15:54

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 The EU has approved the first tranche of €1.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine, which will come from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets. Hungary is against it and wants to appeal the decision
🇭🇺 Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that "the EU has crossed the red lines" because such decisions require unanimous consent.
▪️Earlier, EU diplomacy chief Josep Borrell said that the bloc had developed a legal mechanism to circumvent Hungary's veto. He emphasized that such a legal way would be crucial for the disbursement of a $50 billion loan to Ukraine by the end of the year.

The EU Council has extended temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees until March 4, 2026, affecting more than four million Ukrainians

❗️The death toll from the missile attack on Pokrovsk has risen to five
The number of wounded is 41, including four children.

🤡Russian state TV presenter Sergei Mardan calls Serbia a “whore” and says "the Serbs are no longer brothers to the Russians, but enemies"

🇫🇷 French far-right leader Jordan Bardella has assured that he is ready to confront Russia if he becomes prime minister after the early parliamentary elections.
Despite Macron's accusations that the National Rally is unable to defend France because of its dependence on Moscow, Bardella said that Russia poses a threat https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-far-right-talks-tough-russia-draws-line-escalation-ukraine-2024-06-24/

❗️Russian military blogger Kirill Fedorov published an interview with a Russian military man, who told how Ukrainians in the occupied territories are kidnapped and tortured for using Ukrainian language https://t.me/liveukraine_media/22138

The moment of ATACMS shooting down near Sevastopol. The footage shows debris flying directly onto a beach with vacationers https://t.me/liveukraine_media/22142

The Russian Defense Ministry initially reported that 4 of the 5 missiles were shot down, and "another missile as a result of the impact of air defense means at the final section deviated from the flight trajectory with the detonation of the warhead in the air over the territory of the city," which led to the deaths. Later, the Defense Ministry stated that "the detonation of the fragmentation warhead of the fifth U.S. missile in the air resulted in numerous casualties among civilians in Sevastopol"

Live: Ukraine

❗️Russian military blogger Kirill Fedorov published an interview with a Russian military man, who told how Ukrainians in the occupied territories are kidnapped and tortured for using Ukrainian language 🪐 Subscribe to Live: Ukraine

https://t.me/liveukraine_media/22138

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 25/06/2024 16:03

Interesting that Shoigu and Gerasmov are now wanted by the ICC.

And Kaja Kallas as head of foreign Diplomacy. I look forward to seeing this.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 26/06/2024 12:33

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte was officially appointed to be the next NATO Secretary General on June 26.
Rutte will succeed NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg when his 10-year term ends in October. https://kyivindependent.com/rutte-appointed-as-next-nato-secretary-general

⚡️Estonian PM Kallas will take over as next EU foreign policy head, sources tell RFE/RL. https://kyivindependent.com/estonian-pm-kallas-will-take-over-as-next-eu-foreign-policy-head-sources-tell-rfe-rl/

⚡️Czech PM confirms Ukraine received first batch of shells under Prague-led initiative. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-pm-confirms/

⚡️EU Council approves draft security agreement with Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-council-approves-draft-security-agreement-with-ukraine/ Ukraine has signed security agreements with 17 countries, including the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and France. At least 10 more agreements are yet to be signed.

⚡️Pentagon chief, new Russian defense minister talk https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-chief-russian-defense-minister-belousov-hold-call-for-first-time/ for the first time.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held a phone call with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov on June 25, Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder said at a briefing.

⚡️CNN: US may allow deploying https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-5/ its military contractors to Ukraine.
Washington is moving closer to lifting a de facto ban on U.S. military contractors deploying to Ukraine, CNN reported on June 25, citing four unnamed American officials familiar with the matter.
Such a move would help the Ukrainian military maintain and repair weapons systems provided by Washington much more quickly. U.S.-supplied military equipment that has been heavily damaged in combat has to be taken out of the country to Poland, Romania, or other NATO countries for repair, which takes a long time, CNN reported.

Finland's Gasum, a major gas supplier to the Nordic region, announced on June 25 that it will cease purchasing and importing Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in July in accordance with new European Union sanctions. https://kyivindependent.com/finlands-gasum-to-cease-russian-lng-imports-in-compliance-with-eu-sanctions/

⚡️Statistics service: Ukraine's GDP https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-gdp-increases-6-5-in-first-quarter/ up 6.5% in first quarter.
Preliminary estimates suggest that Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 6.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023, Ukraine's State Statistics Service reported on June 25.

⚡️Satellite image shows fire at ammunition depot https://kyivindependent.com/satellite-image-shows-fire-at-ammunition-depot-in-russias-voronezh-region/ in Russia's Voronezh region.

️Ukraine brings https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-brings-back-90-pows-from-russian-captivity/ back 90 prisoners from Russian captivity. This is the 53rd prisoner exchange since the outbreak of the full-scale war. The captives were exchanged for 90 Russian soldiers, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported, citing the country's Defense Ministry.

⚡️Over 3,000 Nepalis joined https://kyivindependent.com/nepalis-fighting-in-russian-army-captured-pow-estimates/ Russian army, captured POW estimates. "I guess around 3,000 to 4,000 Nepalis joined the Russian army," Rai Bikash, the captured POW said, after estimating that he saw around 200 Nepalis with his own eyes during his short time in the Russian military.

⚡️Defense Ministry bought https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-bought-plastic-flasks-for-army-at-3-times-market-rate-investigation-finds/ plastic flasks for army at 3 times market rate, investigation finds.
The State Logistics Operator (DOT), a government procurement agency established in December 2023, spent more than 54 million hryvnias ($1.3 million) on 153,000 flasks in 2024 alone.

⚡️Russian billionaire imports https://kyivindependent.com/russian-billionaire-imports-luxury-jet-worth-110-million-evading-sanctions/ luxury jet worth $110 million, evading sanctions.
Sources in the aviation business identified sanctioned real estate mogul Zarakh Iliev as the likely owner of the jet.

⚡️Trial for jailed US journalist Gershkovich begins https://kyivindependent.com/trial-for-jailed-us-journalist-gershkovich-begins-in-russia/ in Russia.

⚡️Russian guided bomb attack on Kharkiv Oblast injures 4.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

  • JUN 26, 2024
■ Fewer engagements but casualties stay above average ■ With 4 more days to go, already a monthly record for both artillery & special equipment ■ 🇷🇺 strikes go down & 🇺🇦 ones up; ratio improves but is still in the double-digits
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
blueshoes · 26/06/2024 12:38

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2024

Key Takeaways:

  1. Two major international bodies—the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) — announced decisions on June 25 confirming Russia's long-term perpetration of war crimes and human rights violations in Ukraine.
  2. Russia and Venezuela signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at countering "coercive measures," likely to demonstrate to the West that the Kremlin holds influence in the Western hemisphere.
  3. Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on a Russian ammunition depot in Voronezh Oblast on June 25 and recently conducted strikes on Pantsir-S1 air defense systems in Belgorod Oblast with unspecified weapons.
  4. Russia imposed countersanctions against 81 European Union (EU)-based news outlets on June 25 following EU sanctions against four Russian state-affiliated news outlets on June 24.
  5. Dagestan Republic Head Sergei Melikov ordered investigations into the personal records of senior Dagestani officials following the June 23 likely Wilayat Kavkaz terrorist attacks in Dagestan, indicating that the Kremlin may be intensifying efforts to address Islamist extremist threats in the North Caucasus as it attempts to maintain a veneer of stability and normalcy.
  6. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met with Lithuania-based Belarusian opposition leader Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya on June 20 in Vilnius amid deteriorating Armenian-Belarusian relations
  7. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in Vovchansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Avdiivka.
  8. A Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF) will begin training unspecified Russian military personnel on October 1, 2024.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 26/06/2024 12:52

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The US Department of Defense will monitor the possible movement of North Korean troops to Russia for their participation in the war in Ukraine. According to Pentagon spokesman Ryder, "it's definitely something to keep an eye on."
The Pentagon believes that North Korean troops in Ukraine would become cannon fodder.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan made several statements regarding the situation surrounding the war in Ukraine during an interview with Habertürk. Here are the key points:

🔹 Nuclear Threat: He highlighted the ongoing risk posed by statements from Russian President Putin about the readiness to use nuclear weapons. This risk will persist as long as the war continues.

🔹 Cost of War: Fidan emphasized that the ongoing war's price for the region and the world is very high and warned that this risk could grow and spread, potentially bringing nuclear weapons into focus.

🔹 Strategic Importance: He noted the critical importance of the Syrian region for both Türkiye and Russia, while also stressing the significance of the Ukraine issue.

🔹 Global Division: Fidan observed that global divisions are intensifying, with Russia, China, and Iran moving towards a structural partnership.

🔹 Peace and Russian Position: He mentioned that Turkey has communicated to its interlocutors the necessity of peace for Ukraine and the need for Russia to clearly define its position. He noted that shortly after these discussions, Putin outlined Russia's conditions for ending the war in Ukraine.

🔹 War's Impact: Fidan remarked on the extensive destruction in Ukraine, where over 500,000 people have died, and infrastructure is on the brink of collapse. He also pointed out that the conflict has now extended into Russia.

🔹 Negotiation Process: He expressed optimism about the potential for negotiations, stating that a little help is needed to facilitate this process. He acknowledged that upcoming critical elections in Europe and the USA contribute to the parties' reluctance to show weakness or be the first to propose peace talks.

🔹 Turkish Diplomacy: Fidan reaffirmed Türkiye's efforts to stop wars, reflecting the will of President Erdogan.

🔹 Europe's Contradiction: Finally, he commented on Europe's current stance, stating that it contradicts the values it fought for during the war against Hitler and the fascists, and is experiencing an erosion of values.

An increase in Russia's use of dangerous chemicals to attack the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been recorded, according to the Military Media Center.
Since the beginning of the large-scale armed aggression against Ukraine, 2,698 instances of the use of dangerous chemical substances by Russian forces have been documented. The main delivery methods are drops of K-51 and RG-VO grenades from anti-aircraft missiles.
In May 2024 alone, the radiation, chemical, and biological intelligence groups of the RHC defense forces of the Support Forces Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine recorded and documented 715 cases of Russian forces using ammunition containing dangerous chemical compounds, which is 271 more cases than in April.

Ukraine has surpassed Russia in UAV production, manufacturing 3,000 FPV drones per day, according to Forbes.
Forbes technology journalist David Hambling compared the use of the most common UAVs by Russian and Ukrainian forces. He noted that Russia's primary attack UAV, the "Lancet," is more powerful than its Ukrainian counterparts and is primarily used for counter-battery combat. However, it often fails to destroy well-protected Western howitzers, such as the German PzH-2000, or ends up targeting high-quality mock-ups of weapons. Moreover, the Russian army receives only 300 Lancets per month.
In contrast, Ukrainian industry produces 3,000 strike drones per day, which has a significant impact on the battlefield.

🇱🇻 Latvia will transfer medical equipment worth almost 350,000 euros to Ukraine.

🇩🇰 Denmark allocates more than $21 million to support Ukraine and Moldova on the way to EU membership, — Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark.

The interception rate of Shahed drones by Ukraine's air defense forces reaches 86%. Since the beginning of this year, Russia has launched 2,277 Shahed kamikaze drones in Ukraine.

Picturesque landscapes of Ukrainian Donetsk region and Russian scrap metal "Pantsyr-S1".

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 26/06/2024 12:59

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 The pace of Ukraine's progress in the EU membership negotiations will primarily depend on the implementation of reforms within the so-called fundamental cluster, which includes primarily reforms in the field of the rule of law, Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib said.

🇷🇴Romanian Senator Diana Șoșoacă, who heads the pro-Russian SOS party and has been claiming Ukrainian territory, has announced her candidacy for the presidential election

🥹32 National Guardsmen, 18 border guards, 17 navy representatives, 15 Armed Forces soldiers, and 8 territorial defense soldiers were released
Among them are 59 Mariupol defenders, including 52 fighters who came from Azovstal. Five National Guardsmen who guarded the Chornobyl nuclear power plant were also released from captivity.

A reminder of what exactly the Russians are shelling Ukrainian cities with
Such projectiles do not destroy infrastructure, they are anti-personnel weapons. This is a direct attempt to kill as many civilians as possible.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
MissConductUS · 26/06/2024 18:42

File this under "Bradleys can do anything". 😁

M2A2 "Bradley" crew shot down a Russian FPV drone with fire from a 25 mm cannon in avdiivka region

blueshoes · 26/06/2024 21:06

MissConductUS · 26/06/2024 18:42

Edited

Can I have one? 😂

That FPV drone was wiley. Kept changing direction but the Bradley got it in the end. I wonder whether the Bradley would have survived a direct hit from the drone.

MissConductUS · 26/06/2024 21:15

blueshoes · 26/06/2024 21:06

Can I have one? 😂

That FPV drone was wiley. Kept changing direction but the Bradley got it in the end. I wonder whether the Bradley would have survived a direct hit from the drone.

It very likely would have survived the drone hit, had they not shot it down.

You might not want one as your daily car. They're terrible with petrol and need a big parking spot. On the good side, no one will try to bully or intimidate you in traffic. 😂

Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley vs. FPV Drone: Survives FPV Drone Attack #drone #army

Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley in Action: Survives FPV Drone AttackIn this video, a Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley engages targets with its powerful 25mm gun. Watch as the I...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5exaLjLxxs

blueshoes · 27/06/2024 09:03

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

  1. The likely Islamic State (IS) affiliate Wilayat Kavkaz terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan on June 23 have increased fears within the Russian information space about further attacks and instability in the North Caucasus.
  2. The June 23 terrorist attacks in Dagestan also prompted Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov to double down on his image as a ruthless autocratic strongman capable of protecting the North Caucasus from religious extremism.
  3. North Korea will reportedly send military construction and engineering forces to participate in "reconstruction work" in occupied Donetsk Oblast as early as July 2024.
  4. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Russia is not interested in any negotiations that do not result in Ukrainian territorial concessions beyond the parts of Ukraine Russian forces already occupy.
  5. New Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used his first phone call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on June 26 to reiterate standard Russian threats meant to coerce the US out of supporting Ukraine as part of the wider Russian reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making.
  6. Russia and Ukraine exchanged 90 prisoners of war (POWs) each in a one-to-one POW exchange on June 25 amid United Nations (UN) reports of Russia's continued abuse of POWs.
  7. Russia and Iran signed a memorandum on June 26 regarding the supply of Russian gas to Iran, following reported disagreements between Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the Russian supply of gas to the PRC.
  8. Ukraine’s pervasive shortage of critical air defense missiles is inhibiting Ukraine’s ability to protect its critical infrastructure against Russian strikes.
  9. Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupyansk.
  10. Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) published a report on June 26 detailing a significant increase in Russia's military equipment and weapons production in 2023.
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 27/06/2024 14:57

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ EU states agree on new sanctions package against Belarus to 'strengthen measures' in response to Russia's war. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-states-agree-on-new-sanction-package-against-belarus-to-strengthen-measures-in-response-to-russias-war/ "Belarus must no longer serve as a route to circumvent our sanctions against Russia," Ursula von der Leyen said.

⚡️Ukraine, EU sign security https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-eu-sign-security-agreement-in-brussels/ agreement in Brussels.

⚡️Poland, Baltic states call https://kyivindependent.com/poland-baltic-states-call-on-eu-to-build-defense-line-along-border-with-russia/ on EU to build defense line along border with Russia, Belarus.
Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania called on the European Union to build a line of defense along the bloc's border with Russia and Belarus to protect the EU from military threats and other harmful actions from Moscow

⚡️US efforts to sanction Russia, Iran hampered by desire to keep gas prices low, sources tell WSJ. https://kyivindependent.com/us-efforts-to-sanction-russia-iran-hampered-by-desire-to-keep-gas-prices-low-sources-tell-wsj/

⚡️US wants to invite https://kyivindependent.com/us-wants-to-invite-armenia-azerbaijan-to-upcoming-nato-summit-sources-tell-azeri-media/ Armenia, Azerbaijan to upcoming NATO summit, sources tell Azerbaijani media.

⚡️Russia has sent https://kyivindependent.com/russia-has-sent-around-10-000/ around 10,000 immigrants who recently received citizenship to join military fighting in Ukraine, official says.

⚡️ Zelensky signed a law on June 26 establishing English as an official language of international communication in Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian parliament's website.
The law defines specific positions that require knowledge of English and establishes protocols for using English in various government and public sector offices. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-on-use-of-english-in-ukraine/

⚡️ Military intelligence behind cyberattack on several providers https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-claims-cyberattack-on/ in Crimea, source confirms.
Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) carried out a cyberattack on several of Russia's largest Internet providers operating in Russian-occupied Crimea on June 26, a source in the agency confirmed to the Kyiv Independent.

⚡️Ukraine receives https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-another-2-billion-tranche-from-eus-ukraine-facility-pm-shmyhal-says/ another $2 billion tranche from EU's Ukraine Facility, PM Shmyhal says.

⚡️ Lithuania to allocate at least 0.25% of its GDP https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-allocate-at-least-0-25-of-its-gdp-for-security-defense-support-of-ukraine/ to support Ukraine's security, defense.

⚡️ Denmark to allocate nearly $5 million https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-to-allocate-nearly-5-million-to-restore-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-in-kharkiv-mykolaiv-oblasts/ to restore Ukraine's energy infrastructure in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv oblasts.

⚡️ The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted three resolutions related to Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine on June 26, said Maria Mezentseva, the head of the Ukrainian delegation. https://kyivindependent.com/pace-adopts-resolutions/

⚡️ 33% of Ukrainians think Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/33-of-ukrainians-think-events-in-ukraine-are-developing-in-the-right-direction-47-disagree-survey-shows/ moving in 'right direction,' 47% disagree, survey shows.
A recent survey by the Razumkov Center, published on June 26, indicates that 33% of Ukrainians believe the country is moving "in the right direction," while 47% feel it is heading "in the wrong direction."
..."their ratio is still better than before the outbreak of the full-scale war, 20% and 65,5% respectively"

⚡️ A satellite purchased via a Ukrainian crowdfunding campaign took 4,173 images of Russia's targets in almost two years, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said on June 26. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-crowdfunded-satellite-took-over-4-000-images-of-russian-facilities-military-intelligence-says/

⚡️Russia arbitrarily depriving https://kyivindependent.com/amnesty-international-russia-arbitrarily-depriving-political-prisoners-from-contact-with-family/ political prisoners from contact with family, Amnesty International report finds.
Russian authorities are accused of systemically depriving Russian political prisoners and government critics of contact with families in order to ensure cooperation and "impose additional suffering on them and their families," an Amnesty International report released on June 26 concluded.

⚡️Russian official calls for total destruction https://kyivindependent.com/russian-official-calls-for-total-destruction-of-everything-ukrainian/ of 'everything Ukrainian.'
Dmitry Rogozin, a Russian official heading the Russian occupation of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, said on June 27 that it is "time to burn everything Ukrainian down to the root" so that "there is no trace left." [Rogozin was head of the space agency and seems rather influential]

⚡️Russian occupation authorities destroy https://kyivindependent.com/russian-occupation-authorities-destroy-unesco-world-heritage-site-build-outdoor-theater-in-its-place/ UNESCO World Heritage site, build outdoor theater in its place.
Russian occupation authorities destroyed the UNESCO-listed city of Chersonesus in southwestern Crimea and constructed an outdoor theater at the site of the excavations, a senior researcher at the Institute of Archeology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine announced on June 26. [as barbaric regarding culture as the Taliban]

EXPLAINER: Does Ukraine have political opposition https://kyivindependent.com/explainer-how-ukraines-political-opposition-has-responded-to-more-than-2-years-of-full-scale-invasion-and-martial-law/
More than two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s political opposition has diminished, but continues to affect Ukraine’s politics, experts say. Although President Volodymyr Zelensky and his party still control the parliament, parliamentary members outside of his party still exert some influence on public and international positions on Ukrainian issues.

⚡️ Russian oligarch Pumpyansky wins appeal https://kyivindependent.com/russian-oligarch-pumpyansky-wins-appeal-against-eu-sanctions/ against EU sanctions.

⚡️ Ukraine eliminated from Euro 2024 after goalless draw with Belgium.

⚡️Russian chemical plant reportedly targeted https://kyivindependent.com/drone-attack-tver/ by drone attack.

⚡️Forbes Ukraine: Ikea decides https://kyivindependent.com/forbes-ukraine-ikea-to-return-to-ukraine/ to reopen store in Kyiv.

⚡️ Russian guided bomb attack on Kharkiv Oblast town injures 4, governor says.
⚡️ Russian drone attack on Kherson injures 5, including children.
⚡️Russian attacks kill 2, injure 31 over past day.
⚡️Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast kill 1, injures 7.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

  • JUN 27, 2024
■ Engagements close to 7-day average but casualties stay above it ■ Equipment losses above average as well, including 5 air defence systems & 11 special equipment ■ More strikes on both sides with an improved strike ratio
Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 27/06/2024 15:18

UNITED24 Media Telegram highlights

Every Ukrainian prisoner released on May 31 complained of torture, — UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine
"As in previous findings, every interviewee during this recent exchange talked about torture, from severe beatings and prolonged exposure to stressful body positions to electric shocks to the genitals and being chased by dogs," the commission said in a press release.

Ukraine will receive the second batch of ammunition as part of the Czech initiative in July, and by the end of the year, the Ukrainian army will have received about half a million rounds of ammunition, according to Euroactiv.

After the resumption of American aid deliveries and the start of shell deliveries under the "Czech initiative," the gap in artillery fire between Ukraine and the Russian Federation has been reduced by more than half, according to Ukrainian media citing a source in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"The gap in shots fired on the front between Ukraine and Russia has been reduced from 1:7 to 1:3," the source told RBC-Ukraine.

🇰🇵 North Korea will send military construction and engineering forces to participate in "restoration works" in the occupied Donetsk region starting in July this year, according to South Korean TV Chosun.

NATO members are currently discussing Stoltenberg's idea of a €40 billion-a-year funding plan for Ukraine, though some allies remain skeptical, according to Bloomberg.

Slovakia will join the Czech initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine, the country's President Peter Pellegrini announced.

Western sanctions have failed to undermine Russian arms production, according to a report by the Royal Joint Forces Institute cited by NBC News. Moscow has even ramped up production of artillery shells, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones to support its war against Ukraine.
The report suggests that Western governments have been overly cautious and delayed in their decisions, particularly in intelligence sharing among allies.
In 2021, before the invasion, Moscow produced 56 Kh-101 cruise missiles per year. By last year, production had increased to 460 cruise missiles. Similarly, Russia's stockpile of Iskander ballistic missiles grew dramatically, from about 50 before the invasion to 180.
Despite relying on imported microelectronics for missile and drone munitions, U.S. and European measures have not blocked Moscow's access to these components.
For sanctions to be more effective, the report recommends that governments quickly share relevant intelligence, including classified information, to ensure timely application of export control measures. Western governments should form an "intelligence fusion center" to create a universally accepted picture of the goals of the Russian defense industry.
The report concludes that there are many stages in the production process where interference, whether overt or covert, could cause delays, deterioration in quality, or significantly increase the cost of Russian arms production.

NATO countries are experiencing a military shortage and will not be able to send enough soldiers to the front in the event of a war with Russia
This is the opinion expressed by military analysts to the Financial Times.
"On paper," NATO's European allies have a total of 1.9 million troops — a sufficient number to counter Russia. However, in reality, it will be difficult for the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance to attract more than 300 thousand to participate in a potential military conflict. Moreover, even to call up such a number of people, it will take months," the experts noted.
The problem is especially acute in Germany, Great Britain, France and Italy. Thus, in the German army with 181 thousand troops, there is a shortage of 20 thousand people, in Great Britain the army has decreased by 19% over the past ten years — to 138 thousand people, in France the number of troops over the same period has fallen by 8% — to 204 thousand, and in Italy — by 40 thousand — to 160 thousand people.

Scholz Rejects Calls for Peace Talks with Putin, — DW
"Putin continues to focus entirely on war and rearmament, no one can ignore that," the German Chancellor said in a speech to the Bundestag
According to Scholz, anyone who believes that territorial and political concessions to Putin by Kyiv will lead to lasting peace in Europe "apparently watches a lot of Russia Today."

Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan, Accuses Russia of Handing Over Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan

Photo of Chasiv Yar, taken from a bird's eye view, published by the strike group of the 225th Separate Assault Brigade "Black Swan"

Ukraine Invasion: Part 50
MissConductUS · 27/06/2024 15:24

New Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used his first phone call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on June 26 to reiterate standard Russian threats meant to coerce the US out of supporting Ukraine as part of the wider Russian reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making.

Threatening Lloyd Austin is about as effective as attacking a brick wall by throwing tennis balls at it.

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